Regrets?

[disneynutz]

How could you not like a timeshare that has actually increased in value? That alone puts DVC is an elite class.

Seems like it doesn't it, but only a few years ago, while still holding some increase in price, things were much different. We sold several contracts and took a $10,000 loss. People will say it was the economy and it was and it can happen again. We have had a change of leadership at the DVC, while things have changed, we still don't know what to expect other than refurbs seem to have been pushed out, website changes that don't always work and several pay to play events are now offered. That may increase the price or it may decrease the price. Only time will tell.

Bill

 

[djohn06]

You sold during the worst recession in 80 years. Second worst since the US has been in existence. A 10k loss is a drop in the bucket compared to people being upside down hundreds of thousands of dollars on their homes at that time. I would say you made out fine. Again look at what other timeshares sold for at that time.

 

[crisi]

How could you not like a timeshare that has actually increased in value? That alone puts DVC is an elite class.

If you bought in early 2008, lost your job in 2009, and had to sell in 2009/2010, your timeshare didn't increase in value and you might have a lot of regrets about losing $5,000+ that you could have used to pay your mortgage before your house got foreclosed on. Which was the outline of the situation for several people on this board.

 

[DebbieB]

The only regret I have is I would have split my 250 BWV points into 2 separate contracts of 150 and 100. Then when VGC came along, I would have bought 100-150 there and sold the 100 BWV contract. I almost did buy VGC anyway but I have an April use year and the first points sold were June, so I would have had to wait a year. I decided I really didn't need more points. I'm 4 for 4 at VGC so far at 7 months so it wasn't a big deal.

 

[SarahInMN]

We have no regrets - we own enough points at VGF (bought direct) and BCV (bought resale) to stay a week in 1 BR every year (i.e. alternating). This use year we used our points to stay 5 days in a studio at VGC, will have 1 week at BCV for F&W, and will be using our points to stay at SSR for a "last minute" trip in January.

1) People regret DVC I think if they buy the least expensive resort expecting to switch to a more popular resort at 7 months: we own at BCV, I booked our week at month 11, and in month 10 there was no availability to add on an extra 2 days for F&W.

2) People who buy into DVC need (to a certain degree) to be able to plan way in advance if you want to stay at certain resorts: we booked our F&W trip at 11 months and "last minute" (see above) means we planned a trip in August 2015 for January 2016. For January, there was no availability at the monorail resorts, the EPCOT resorts, and very limited at AKL. OKW and SSR had availability so we are staying at SSR. If you buy expecting to book at your home resort with short notice, there might not be availability: we own at 2 popular resorts but lost the booking advantage due to when we booked. It is what it is.

3) DVC is not a luxury hotel. You do not get room cleaning every day.

4) Don't buy DVC for any perceived perks: AP discounts may come and go, TiW may come and go, trading out may change, etc. All you are guaranteed really is the ability to stay at your home resort and have a booking advantage over non-owners.

5) People regret it if they don't understand the terms of the deal, like use year, booking windows, how to borrow/how to bank, banking deadlines, etc.

DVC advantages (and this is subjective, so these are advantages for us):

1) No more discount roulette: I used to book a room then sort through discount A and discount B and call to get discounts applied to the reservation. It was a pain and I frankly don't have time to play that game. Now I book and we're done.

2) We get a 1 br with a king bed. We used to pay an insane amount (to me at least) for essentially a studio at a deluxe resort (we would stay at GF or YC pre DVC) and now we get to stay in what we feel is a nicer, bigger room at either BCV or VGF.

3) No daily housekeeping - this for us is an advantage.

4) We know we will be back - so much less of the "we have to do everything" frenzy.

5) In room washer and dryer - I underestimated how handy this was for us in a 1 BR. We use this way more often than I would have guessed when we bought in.

edited to add: I'd suggest looking into resale (but again know the differences of buying real vs direct). We bought BCV resale and VGF direct (right when they started selling it). As a side note, other posters have mentioned outgrowing Disney, we're a 40ish, childfree by choice, professional couple and love Disney because its easy: get car service from the airport, walk or use disney transport once on property, eat/wander/shop/ride when we want, hit the pools, and relax when we want. Its an easy vacation for us that requires very little actual planning.

 

[djohn06]

If you bought in early 2008, lost your job in 2009, and had to sell in 2009/2010, your timeshare didn't increase in value and you might have a lot of regrets about losing $5,000+ that you could have used to pay your mortgage before your house got foreclosed on. Which was the outline of the situation for several people on this board.

If that was all that happened be glad you could even sell your timeshare. Other timeshares probably couldn't even sell during that time. Losing 5k was the least of your worries.

Trust me. I had one rental property that loss 100k in a matter of 18 months. Again.... 5k drop is a drop in the bucket. The fact you could liquidate is huge.

Do you know how many timeshares do not sell? Just hop on eBay and look.

 

[crisi]

If that was all that happened be glad you could even sell your timeshare. Other timeshares probably couldn't even sell during that time. Losing 5k was the least of your worries.

Trust me. I had one rental property that loss 100k in a matter of 18 months. Again.... 5k drop is a drop in the bucket. The fact you could liquidate is huge.

Do you know how many timeshares do not sell? Just hop on eBay and look.

Perhaps those people regret having ANY timeshare. Had they not had any timeshare at all, and not had the spending habits of buying a luxury purchase without sufficient savings to get us through - granted - one of the biggest economic events of the past fifty years, then they might have weathered the whole thing without any loss.

ETA: For you $5k might be a drop in the bucket. For a lot of people who had overextended themselves in order to "save money" with DVC, $5k was as much as unemployment paid them for the next twelve months. It was more than they had in the bank.

Regret isn't buying DVC instead of Wyndham or Bob's FlyByNight Timeshare of Cancun. Its having bought DVC at all. It includes making the commitment to regular Disney vacations - then discovering that your kid's aren't going to get scholarships and college is way more than you saved for (Thank you Dad for saving for college - we went on one "real" vacation growing up - it was wonderful - more wonderful was never having a student loan and starting my adult life with no debt). Or that you'll like to retire at 62, but are going to be working until 70 because your social security check is too small and you didn't put money into your 401k - deciding staying on site with DVC every year was more important and retirement (and college) are so far away when you are young.

For most people reading this board for whom DVC has been great - $5k is a drop in the bucket and they've been able to afford funding retirement, college, savings - whatever they NEED and STILL go to Disney. There have been far too many financial tragedies on this board since I joined - people who stretched to finance something without secure jobs or secure marriages. To me, its highly irresponsible to be a party to that by stating something that isn't true "you can always sell for more than you paid." That mentality is what contributed to a lot of those tragedies during the recession.

For those that bought low, stayed for years, and sell high - congratulations. If I sold now, I'd be one of them. That is the way I really hope it works for everyone. But it doesn't work that way for everyone. Some people buy a new resort high and a year later are selling at a loss because their marriage has fallen apart. And if that is a risk you can't afford, and you buy DVC, and it happens, that is regret.

 

[djohn06]

Personally, we went from a 2 income family to 1 income during the Great Recession. Guess who was making most of the money.... Not me.

My attitude is a little different because I was the guy who saved up 30 to 35 percent of my income pre Great Recession. So when it hit..... It changed my lifestyle bigtime. We still make less today than when we did in 2008, But we take more vacations and have more fun as a family. My wife hasn't worked full time since 2009.

So it's more of an attitude thing for me. The Great Recession is an unforeseen circumstance right up there with an "act of God". When you encounter an event such as this, there is no way you can expect to get 100 percent of your money back on any major purchase. You hunker down and take what you can get and move on. Bad times don't last forever.

Also, I am not going to live my life planning for the next great recession. That's living in fear to me. I don't look back I look ahead.....

Are there more people in the money with DVC than out of the money today? Probably so, but please don't come with the 100 year flood scenario.

Some people trust that a higher power with guide them. I am one of them. Not going to be fearful of once in a lifetime thing ...... Life is too short.

 

[crisi]

Personally, we went from a 2 income family to 1 income during the Great Recession. Guess who was making most of the money.... Not me.

My attitude is a little different because I was the guy who saved up 30 to 35 percent of my income pre Great Recession. So when it hit..... It changed my lifestyle bigtime. We still make less today than when we did in 2008, But we take more vacations and have more fun as a family. My wife hasn't worked full time since 2009.

So it's more of an attitude thing for me. The Great Recession is an unforeseen circumstance right up there with an "act of God". When you encounter an event such as this, there is no way you can expect to get 100 percent of your money back on any major purchase. You hunker down and take what you can get and move on. Bad times don't last forever.

Also, I am not going to live my life planning for the next great recession. That's living in fear to me. I don't look back I look ahead.....

Are there more people in the money with DVC than out of the money today? Probably so, but please don't come with the 100 year flood scenario.

Some people trust that a higher power with guide them. I am one of them. Not going to be fearful of once in a lifetime thing ...... Life is too short.

But you can see how someone might regret after the 100 year scenario hits, right? Which is the question - and to remind you, the statement you made that started this line was

How could you not like a timeshare that has actually increased in value? That alone puts DVC is an elite class.

1. It hasn't historically increased in value for everyone and 2. There is no guarantee it will in the future.

 

[djohn06]

I think after the Great Recession people regretted a lot of things: buying a house, taking a new job, moving to a new location, taking out student loans..... I mean what didn't people regret.

You took a snapshot in time which is a narrow conclusion to determine any long term purchase. It makes anything valuable seem like a bad choice. I remember when amazon was $20 and went down to $13. Guess I should never buy that either because I bought during the tech bubble crunch? Would this be your conclusion too? Avoid stocks?

You seem to glance over the sections where I mentioned DVC is elite in the timeshare world. Would you recommend another timeshare? Or, would you be fearful the next day the person would get hit by a bus and forced to go on disability?

 

[JimMIA]

Any of us can pick a set of dates that shows DVC either increased in value, or decreased in value, depending on which point we're trying to prove.

But, in general and including DVC, I'd say that thinking anybody's timeshare is going to retain very much of its value over a longish period of time is a fool's bet. The only semi-foolproof exit strategy for timeshares is to buy for nothing on eBay and sell for nothing later -- but even that will involve some costs, and almost certainly won't end up as a profit.

 

[crisi]

I think after the Great Recession people regretted a lot of things: buying a house, taking a new job, moving to a new location, taking out student loans..... I mean what didn't people regret.

You took a snapshot in time which is a narrow conclusion to determine any long term purchase. It makes anything valuable seem like a bad choice. I remember when amazon was $20 and went down to $13. Guess I should never buy that either because I bought during the tech bubble crunch? Would this be your conclusion too? Avoid stocks?

You seem to glance over the sections where I mentioned DVC is elite in the timeshare world. Would you recommend another timeshare? Or, would you be fearful the next day the person would get hit by a bus and forced to go on disability?

Sure, buy DVC - you have disability insurance and emergency savings for getting hit by that bus, right? If you don't, you might want to make sure you evaluate DVC as part of your overall financial life. After all, I do own DVC myself. I don't believe its always a bad decision. I just think that when buying, you can't assume that when you need to sell, it will be worth more than you paid for it. If that's ok with you, because the amount of likely risk is reasonable for your financial situation, DVC MIGHT be a good choice. If you need to be able to get your money out in the next five years without a loss, then don't buy DVC (nor should you put money in the stock market)

 

[djohn06]

Any of us can pick a set of dates that shows DVC either increased in value, or decreased in value, depending on which point we're trying to prove.

But, in general and including DVC, I'd say that thinking anybody's timeshare is going to retain very much of its value over a longish period of time is a fool's bet. The only semi-foolproof exit strategy for timeshares is to buy for nothing on eBay and sell for nothing later -- but even that will involve some costs, and almost certainly won't end up as a profit.

I agree. Which is also why I said what is there not to like about DVC since it had kept up its value and for most people, they are in the black.

Bad timing on anything can make a good thing seem like a bad thing.

In addition to the value of DVC, most timeshares rent below their maint fee or slightly above yearly maint fees. Every WDW resort rents for double its maint fee. Again, highly unique in the timeshare world. Another huge plus in DVCs favor.

 

[JimMIA]

I agree. Which is also why I said what is there not to like about DVC since it had kept up its value and for most people, they are in the black.

I really doubt that MOST people are in the black with DVC.

Those who bought in the early/mid-90's probably are, and many of those who bought in the last couple of years at cheap resale prices may be ahead right now. As a matter of fact, there are probably some other timeshare owners who are in the black during that most recent period -- I know I am with Wyndham (see the buy for nothing strategy above), and there has been a good bit of chatter on TUG about that.

But being "in the black" at the moment is a temporary uptick in the market -- especially when you are talking about a product which literally expires at some point in the future and will have zero value well before expiration.

I can structure a phony example to show a direct buyer being ahead, but my guess is most direct buyers are in the red and always will be. And that is the vast majority of DVC owners.

My impression of these types of "financial justifications" has always been that they are a) wishful thinking and more importantly b) they are focused on the wrong thing. The value of DVC, IMHO, is not financial value -- it's the family value.

 

[Dean]

I think after the Great Recession people regretted a lot of things: buying a house, taking a new job, moving to a new location, taking out student loans..... I mean what didn't people regret.

You took a snapshot in time which is a narrow conclusion to determine any long term purchase. It makes anything valuable seem like a bad choice. I remember when amazon was $20 and went down to $13. Guess I should never buy that either because I bought during the tech bubble crunch? Would this be your conclusion too? Avoid stocks?

You seem to glance over the sections where I mentioned DVC is elite in the timeshare world. Would you recommend another timeshare? Or, would you be fearful the next day the person would get hit by a bus and forced to go on disability?

While one likely can't anticipate a specific issue, they can plan for possibilities and reduced risk. It sounds like you actually did that by saving and living within your means. Many of the risks that one should consider are real and far more likely to happen than the one you quote though we've had 2 major downturns in the last decade and a half. The problem is that most people aren't living within their means and aren't saving money. They live month to month and would not have been able to survice your events.

IMO it's unrealistic to assume one could break even on DVC long term and it's entirely possible it'll be in the same boat as many others. I have a number of timeshares that I could sell for far more than I paid for them and most aren't DVC but one does need to be careful and plan accordingly. From an overall value standpoint DVC is the lowest of my 4 timeshare groups. From a $$ return standpoint if sold, it's still near the bottom. The only thing certain is DVC will be worth nothing at some point.

 

[djohn06]

I

I really doubt that MOST people are in the black with DVC.

Those who bought in the early/mid-90's probably are, and many of those who bought in the last couple of years at cheap resale prices may be ahead right now. As a matter of fact, there are probably some other timeshare owners who are in the black during that most recent period -- I know I am with Wyndham (see the buy for nothing strategy above), and there has been a good bit of chatter on TUG about that.

But being "in the black" at the moment is a temporary uptick in the market -- especially when you are talking about a product which literally expires at some point in the future and will have zero value well before expiration.

I can structure a phony example to show a direct buyer being ahead, but my guess is most direct buyers are in the red and always will be. And that is the vast majority of DVC owners.

My impression of these types of "financial justifications" has always been that they are a) wishful thinking and more importantly b) they are focused on the wrong thing. The value of DVC, IMHO, is not financial value -- it's the family value.

If you are reading a post about timesharing with all the info on the web, I am assuming any person is buying resale unless it's a small point purchase.

If someone is thinking direct my thoughts aren't for you. I can't find a good case for direct other than a small add on.

I agree on the family value part. That should be the main motivator/ factor.

 

[djohn06]

Most

While one likely can't anticipate a specific issue, they can plan for possibilities and reduced risk. It sounds like you actually did that by saving and living within your means. Many of the risks that one should consider are real and far more likely to happen than the one you quote though we've had 2 major downturns in the last decade and a half. The problem is that most people aren't living within their means and aren't saving money. They live month to month and would not have been able to survice your events.

IMO it's unrealistic to assume one could break even on DVC long term and it's entirely possible it'll be in the same boat as many others. I have a number of timeshares that I could sell for far more than I paid for them and most aren't DVC but one does need to be careful and plan accordingly. From an overall value standpoint DVC is the lowest of my 4 timeshare groups. From a $$ return standpoint if sold, it's still near the bottom. The only thing certain is DVC will be worth nothing at some point.

Most hold a timeshare for 10 years or less. Including this guy. Not planning on letting the time lapse until duration. So I will sit on unrealized gains until it is realized or at a loss.

What do you define as "break even"? Recouping principle amount? Or are you factoring in maint fees?

Sure I have timeshares that percentage wise did better than DVC I picked them up at $1 and could get $1000. Not to mention I have 2 bedrooms with weekly maint fees of $575. I can easily trade into DVC with those too via RCI. I guess there are a lot factors a person can view to determine "break even".

 

[Dean]

Most


Most hold a timeshare for 10 years or less. Including this guy. Not planning on letting the time lapse until duration. So I will sit on unrealized gains until it is realized or at a loss.

What do you define as "break even"? Recouping principle amount? Or are you factoring in maint fees?

Sure I have timeshares that percentage wise did better than DVC I picked them up at $1 and could get $1000. Not to mention I have 2 bedrooms with weekly maint fees of $575. I can easily trade into DVC with those too via RCI. I guess there are a lot factors a person can view to determine "break even".

That's somewhat the point but for purposes of this discussion, I'm only looking at financials related to purchasing, using, renting, and selling later. There's no way to quantify intangables or non contractual issues such as discounts with ownership. I do think one of the largest risks is buying DVC with the expectation of selling later but one has to consider all of the aspects. IMO it'd be a very poor choice if one couldn't throw it away at that point and still come out ahead or if one had to use that option to justify the purchase. I do feel it's overly optimistic to think one can sell DVC fairly late in the course and even more optimistic to either assume break even or better or that small contracts will continue to be in demand. One has to pick comparisons, IMO the 2 best by far are what it would cost to actually rent a comparable option and/or what one would have paid. For DVC that's a private rental or discounted hotels for that that MUST stay on property and a private rental or exchange if off property is acceptable.

I'm not sure it's accurate to say most hold a timeshare for shorter period, I haven't seen any data to back it up from the industry. Given the specialty nature of timeshares, I doubt that's accurate either. Could you point me to some industry information supporting that premise?

 

[djohn06]

That's somewhat the point but for purposes of this discussion, I'm only looking at financials related to purchasing, using, renting, and selling later. There's no way to quantify intangables or non contractual issues such as discounts with ownership. I do think one of the largest risks is buying DVC with the expectation of selling later but one has to consider all of the aspects. IMO it'd be a very poor choice if one couldn't throw it away at that point and still come out ahead or if one had to use that option to justify the purchase. I do feel it's overly optimistic to think one can sell DVC fairly late in the course and even more optimistic to either assume break even or better or that small contracts will continue to be in demand. One has to pick comparisons, IMO the 2 best by far are what it would cost to actually rent a comparable option and/or what one would have paid. For DVC that's a private rental or discounted hotels for that that MUST stay on property and a private rental or exchange if off property is acceptable.

I'm not sure it's accurate to say most hold a timeshare for shorter period, I haven't seen any data to back it up from the industry. Given the specialty nature of timeshares, I doubt that's accurate either. Could you point me to some industry information supporting that premise?

I'm not sure if you have access to Fitchs ABS timeshare reporting but historically the annual default rate on timeshares has been just under 10 percent to over 20 percent. If not, you can google it and sign up for the service. Fitch has been tracking timeshares since 1997. These stats represent owners who finance timeshares. ARDA estimates 53 percent finance their timeshare.

I don't claim to be a math guy but if there are 9 million timeshare owners and more than half have financed and of that 4.5 million around 12 to 13 percent have defaulted annually on average since 1997, it's safe to assume 100 percent turnover in a 10 year period off this stat alone. Maybe I am wrong but it seems about right.

 

[djohn06]

That's somewhat the point but for purposes of this discussion, I'm only looking at financials related to purchasing, using, renting, and selling later. There's no way to quantify intangables or non contractual issues such as discounts with ownership. I do think one of the largest risks is buying DVC with the expectation of selling later but one has to consider all of the aspects. IMO it'd be a very poor choice if one couldn't throw it away at that point and still come out ahead or if one had to use that option to justify the purchase. I do feel it's overly optimistic to think one can sell DVC fairly late in the course and even more optimistic to either assume break even or better or that small contracts will continue to be in demand. One has to pick comparisons, IMO the 2 best by far are what it would cost to actually rent a comparable option and/or what one would have paid. For DVC that's a private rental or discounted hotels for that that MUST stay on property and a private rental or exchange if off property is acceptable.

I'm not sure it's accurate to say most hold a timeshare for shorter period, I haven't seen any data to back it up from the industry. Given the specialty nature of timeshares, I doubt that's accurate either. Could you point me to some industry information supporting that premise?

For me I personally try to get my money out of a timeshare. What that means is if I pay 10k towards a timeshare, better believe I will get this back in profit before I sell DVC by renting points. With DVC it is very easy to profit $7 pp. On BLT I can profit $10 pp.

I estimate that I would have to sell 1,420 points to get my 10k back @ $7 pp profit. I plan on doing this before I sell. Depending on the contract, it could take 7 years to 10 years to do this.

Again, many timeshares you cannot do this because the demand isn't there. But this is why DVC is such a good deal.