Predicted DVC booking patterns - Studios/ some 1-bedrooms (Prepared 2015)

[skier_pete]

I am curious if them moving the start of F&W back earlier & earlier will have much affect on the availability?!?!

It will to an extent. I still think most people don't really want to go in September when it is so hot, so I don't think it will ever become like the October/November issues. It will likely mostly affect Boardwalk and Beach Club.

 

[Anal Annie]

It will to an extent. I still think most people don't really want to go in September when it is so hot, so I don't think it will ever become like the October/November issues. It will likely mostly affect Boardwalk and Beach Club.

We're Sept. people for F&W mostly because our sons college parents weekend is in mid-Oct. and we want to sort of space things out travel-wise... Oct. already looks more booked up than Sept. too as far as trying to book something different besides our home resort but I still see the availablity changing. Our APs expire in mid-Oct so Nov is out for us unless we renew early...plus the last time we went in Nov. some of the F&W merchandise (like festival pins) were sold out so we like to go a little earlier...We've also been going in January so going in Sept. spaces things out more for us....But yes, it was still hot.... For us we have to decide on 4 nights at like BWV or BCV or the Poly vs 5 nights at like AKV or OKW or SSR. SSR is our home and we've had 2 trips there this year already + our summer trip coming up so we'd like to switch to something else for F&W...

 

[Dismommy8]

HELP! Thinking about pulling the trigger on purchasing a DVC but the more I read these threads the more confused I get. We were going to buy direct at the Poly asking for a UY of April because we almost always go for Easter break. What am I missing? Are there questions I should be asking? Is it a bad idea to buy Poly? Any and all advice would be greatly appreciated.

 

[skier_pete]

HELP! Thinking about pulling the trigger on purchasing a DVC but the more I read these threads the more confused I get. We were going to buy direct at the Poly asking for a UY of April because we almost always go for Easter break. What am I missing? Are there questions I should be asking? Is it a bad idea to buy Poly? Any and all advice would be greatly appreciated.

Really you should ask this question in it's own thread. I will give a brief answer, but this thread is really about booking patterns. In short I would say you should buy direct at the Poly if you really love the Poly. If you are not sure that you want to buy there, or prefer other resorts, then look further into resale. The problem with an April UY is what happens to your vacation when Easter falls in March on that rare occasion. If the answer is you travel in March, look to an earlier UY.

 

[mustinjourney]

Can someone pin this thread? I think it would help a ton more people if they knew about it. I reference it often, but only because I know to look for it.

@CarolMN ? Do you have pinning powers?

 

[skier_pete]

Can someone pin this thread? I think it would help a ton more people if they knew about it. I reference it often, but only because I know to look for it.

@CarolMN ? Do you have pinning powers?

I was told previously that the mods didn't want to pin it - I can't remember the exact reason, but may have been they just didn't want to have too many pinned threads.

I am trying to hold off another 6 months and then I plan on starting a refresh of these charts to include the Poly. I want to be sure the Poly is at least 85% sold.

 

[mustinjourney]

I was told previously that the mods didn't want to pin it - I can't remember the exact reason, but may have been they just didn't want to have too many pinned threads.

I am trying to hold off another 6 months and then I plan on starting a refresh of these charts to include the Poly. I want to be sure the Poly is at least 85% sold.

I certainly don't run this site so it's not my call. But someone asks this question at least once a week, so it would make sense, IMHO, to pin it. And this is by far the MOST helpful resource I've seen. It's so simple it's brilliant.

 

[skier_pete]

I certainly don't run this site so it's not my call. But someone asks this question at least once a week, so it would make sense, IMHO, to pin it. And this is by far the MOST helpful resource I've seen. It's so simple it's brilliant.

Well - whether it's pinned on not is not up to me..but thank you very much for your kind words. It was a lot of work so I am happy that other people find it useful.

 

[D-Trick]

I certainly don't run this site so it's not my call. But someone asks this question at least once a week, so it would make sense, IMHO, to pin it. And this is by far the MOST helpful resource I've seen. It's so simple it's brilliant.

The work that skier_pete has done to collect this data and the helpfulness this thread provides can not be understated-- we all use this as a great resource (thanks skier_pete!).

However, I can understand the mods not wanting to pin it. They're taking a neutral stance. They're not hiding it (by deleting it), nor are they promoting it (by pinning it). This information is out of date, though definitely still relevant. It also only benefits those with a studio need. That's not fair to everyone.

For something like this to be successfully pinned, I would think it would have to be a rolling 12 month period (so it's always current), but also need to provide information for all room types. Now... who's going to do all that work?

 

[Anal Annie]

I was always looking for it too so I finally bookmarked it.

 

[Wakey]

There's a good spreadsheet for all rooms from 2015, on Mickey owners (you know what I mean) but it's missing a bit of Poly and all BLT where I assume owner owns.

 

[skier_pete]

This information is out of date, though definitely still relevant. It also only benefits those with a studio need. That's not fair to everyone.

One thing to mention - part of the reason I kept this in sort of broad strokes (4 categories with 3 colors) was to keep it as relevant as possible for as long as possible. While I'm sure that booking patterns shift over time, the broad category of a 15 day period being fairly open versus mostly booked is likely to remain the same. The biggest effect is as more DVCs are added, and I honestly believe if I repeat this again in the next 6-18 months (because it takes a year to do) I think the patterns will remain fairly unchanged for most resorts. I would like to expand to 1- and 2-bedrooms, but I am concern about the time that will take.

 

[Wakey]

One thing to mention - part of the reason I kept this in sort of broad strokes (4 categories with 3 colors) was to keep it as relevant as possible for as long as possible. While I'm sure that booking patterns shift over time, the broad category of a 15 day period being fairly open versus mostly booked is likely to remain the same. The biggest effect is as more DVCs are added, and I honestly believe if I repeat this again in the next 6-18 months (because it takes a year to do) I think the patterns will remain fairly unchanged for most resorts. I would like to expand to 1- and 2-bedrooms, but I am concern about the time that will take.

Pete your work here was excellent and I used it in making my resale purchase decision.

 

[Tardisblue]

Edited 10/21/2015: Data has been completed a few months after the rest of the sites. As can be seen, availability drops to near zero right at seven months. I had my own problems with this trying to get a 1-bedroom in mid February where the availability disappeared right at 8 AM at the 7-month mark for several days in a row.

View attachment 130233

View attachment 130234

This doesn't give me a lot of hope in trying to book a spring break trip for 2018. Looks like we'll be waitlisting and hoping for the best.

Thanks for compiling the data. Excel nerds unite in orderly rows and columns!

 

[tink'smom2B]

Thanks so much for making this chart! I've never seen anything so clearly presented. Just Love it!

 

[PapaCharles]

One thing to mention - part of the reason I kept this in sort of broad strokes (4 categories with 3 colors) was to keep it as relevant as possible for as long as possible. While I'm sure that booking patterns shift over time, the broad category of a 15 day period being fairly open versus mostly booked is likely to remain the same. The biggest effect is as more DVCs are added, and I honestly believe if I repeat this again in the next 6-18 months (because it takes a year to do) I think the patterns will remain fairly unchanged for most resorts. I would like to expand to 1- and 2-bedrooms, but I am concern about the time that will take.

Thanks, love the info

 

[kanga5roos]

I love charts and graphs, and I love Disney -- so thank you for creating this and making me very happy and contented!

 

[Duck1]

i echo the sentiments of others. Thanks for sharing your work with the rest of us! Very much appreciated! I'm considering purchasing vgf resale and another poster directed me to your link. Very informative! We typically travel early to mid December and early February. I was planning on purchasing enough points to cover two trips in a studio but others suggested that I would be better off getting enough points to get a 1br for the December trip. Based on your research I now see why. I don't know if you can answer this or not but I'm trying to determine exactly how quickly the studios fill up in December. Is it a case where they are gone by the end of the first day or is it a matter of minutes after 8am? Thanks

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

i echo the sentiments of others. Thanks for sharing your work with the rest of us! Very much appreciated! I'm considering purchasing vgf resale and another poster directed me to your link. Very informative! We typically travel early to mid December and early February. I was planning on purchasing enough points to cover two trips in a studio but others suggested that I would be better off getting enough points to get a 1br for the December trip. Based on your research I now see why. I don't know if you can answer this or not but I'm trying to determine exactly how quickly the studios fill up in December. Is it a case where they are gone by the end of the first day or is it a matter of minutes after 8am? Thanks

In early December it can be gone within seconds of 8am - if you are 8:01 you'll likely not get a studio.

 

[MouseOfCards]

This thread also helped us in deciding on some of our contracts. Thank you!

BTW, please do include 1 and 2 BRs in your next update (as well as Aulani). It would also be interesting to breakdown 2 BR dedicated and lock-offs. Thanks, again.