Is attendance really growing?

[Barnabe]

According to this blog by Hydroguy, not so much:

http://blog.wdwinfo.com/2015/06/06/disney-parks-take-top-six-spots-in-america-last-year/

 

[Alesia]

Just very quickly doing the math, Magic Kingdom saw an average increase of more than 2,000 guests every single day from last years numbers. That's not an insignificant increase.

 

[wisblue]

The thing that jumps out at me on this is the comment about park hopping.

If these figures only count the first park a guest visits each day, that could be quite significant in comparing figures from 1991, when DHS was in its infancy, and the 2000's, after the Animal Kingdom opened.

According to the charts, in 1991 the total at the 3 parks was about 38 million, and in 2014 the total for the 4 parks was about 51 million. That's about a 34% increase in total number of people visiting at least one park. When you factor in the severe drop in travel after 9/11 (which dropped the 4 park total back to about 38 million) that is a pretty significant increase.

When we look at average daily attendance at a park we would usually just look at that park's attendance. But, if park hoppers are not counted, that could easily add a couple thousand people to the total number of people who actually set foot in a park. Obviously, I have no idea how many people park hop in a day, but I know that we almost always visit 2 parks on every full day of our trips.

This also raises the question for me as to whether Universal counts things the same way. If they don't, comparing Universal to Disney is going to produce skewed results.

 

[wdw4rfam]

I personally think crowds are growing, but more than that, I think Disney is spreading crowds out better. We always went in September and it was DEAD. Every year it gets busier and busier to where September felt like spring break to me this last year. Friends of our who go every year in July say it hasn't been as busy the last few years. So maybe people are just holding out for the good discounts and going then instead.

 

[Marionnette]

It looks like attendance at the MK jumped with the opening of the Fantasyland Expansion. Attendance at the other 3 parks is somewhat flat, with Epcot and HS having just now recovered from the sharp decline in attendance they experienced with the opening of AK in 1998.

But as has been so often pointed out on this board, it's not the attendance numbers that are the real story. It's the profit that matters to the execs. While attendance overall is up 3%-4% at the domestic parks, guest spending has increased dramatically. This lead to a 7% increase in profits for the Parks & Resorts division of the Walt Disney Company. That 7% increase takes into account declining DVC sales and poor performance at the international operations. What was driving the increased guest spending? Increased ticket costs and an increase in food & beverage spending.

 

[MomForFrozenAddicts]

Maybe not during the busiest time, but definitely during the "off-peak". My first end of August trip was a walk in to every attraction, now it is a lot more crowded and the wait is much much longer. Even the CM's said there is not such thing as quiet time in Disney anymore.

 

[WillAustin]

What was driving the increased guest spending? Increased ticket costs and an increase in food & beverage spending.

This was the biggest news to me when it was released in the earnings report. That's where the largest increase in revenue is showing up.

 

[DrivenByDisney]

Maybe not during the busiest time, but definitely during the "off-peak". My first end of August trip was a walk in to every attraction, now it is a lot more crowded and the wait is much much longer. Even the CM's said there is not such thing as quiet time in Disney anymore.

I agree with that for sure. Living here and seeing "off-peak" compared to "peak" is harder & harder to see. The so-called older "slower times" seem to be getting more and more crowded. I doubt Disney ever really has a "down time" when it comes to people coming to the parks.

Though there did use to be periods where the crowds seemed a great deal lighter than peak times. As you stated, those lines are beginning to blur together.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

According to this blog by Hydroguy, not so much:

http://blog.wdwinfo.com/2015/06/06/disney-parks-take-top-six-spots-in-america-last-year/

I cannot find where you conclude he said it wasn't growing as I infer from
Your thread title and OP as the claim.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

I agree with that for sure. Living here and seeing "off-peak" compared to "peak" is harder & harder to see. The so-called older "slower times" seem to be getting more and more crowded. I doubt Disney ever really has a "down time" when it comes to people coming to the parks.

Though there did use to be periods where the crowds seemed a great deal lighter than peak times. As you stated, those lines are beginning to blur together.

I agree.

 

[Marionnette]

I cannot find where you conclude he said it wasn't growing as I infer from
Your thread title and OP as the claim.

Nor do I. I see respectable growth in attendance at MK and almost flat attendance changes at the other 3 Disney Orlando parks. But that could have more to do with how the numbers are derived. Only the first park entered for the day is counted in that report. It's possible for someone to have started at the MK and then finished their day at Epcot for dinner and IllumiNations but only the MK gets counted in that scenario.

 

[Lisa loves Pooh]

Nor do I. I see respectable growth in attendance at MK and almost flat attendance changes at the other 3 Disney Orlando parks. But that could have more to do with how the numbers are derived. Only the first park entered for the day is counted in that report. It's possible for someone to have started at the MK and then finished their day at Epcot for dinner and IllumiNations but only the MK gets counted in that scenario.

I wonder if they do that for ease of accounting yet still just review records to know the rest of the story. I could see only counting first swipe at a park.
But how hard would it be to look at first time a ticket was swiped in each park.

But then, from an admissions POV, even though there are 4 gates, perhaps they just count the unique entries to WDW at large so they cannot be accused of double dipping on attendance. So they avoid counting a guest twice even if that guest was visiting two separate parks that they treat as individual parks.

 

[Marionnette]

I wonder if they do that for ease of accounting yet still just review records to know the rest of the story. I could see only counting first swipe at a park.
But how hard would it be to look at first time a ticket was swiped in each park.

But then, from an admissions POV, even though there are 4 gates, perhaps they just count the unique entries to WDW at large so they cannot be accused of double dipping on attendance. So they avoid counting a guest twice even if that guest was visiting two separate parks that they treat as individual parks.

Yes. I don't fault the method used for data collection. I just find it interesting because it can misrepresent the true picture. What is it that Mark Twain said about them? "There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics."

Universal's parks show a 0% growth for IOA but double-digit leaps in attendance at USF. I attribute this to the fact that every HP fan knows that your trip to Hogwarts begins in Diagon Alley. You have to start your day there in order to get the proper immersion in the experience.

 

[mickeyluv'r]

Just very quickly doing the math, Magic Kingdom saw an average increase of more than 2,000 guests every single day from last years numbers. That's not an insignificant increase.

But that too is only part of the picture. What matters too is how much additional advertising Disney needed to draw those guests. Clearly, WDW very much increases ads any time bookings go down.

and Wow! Universal was up 17%. Count us among those who were wooed by US! Better food, better prices, better policies, and...

Their new attractions delivered, WDW, not as much.

Dining plan changes don't really wow me.

 

[Josh Hendy]

The thing about these numbers and rankings is that they're unofficial and unverified.

The TEA does not actually see the real figures from any theme park company. From what I heard Len Testa and Sam Gennawey saying (theme park guidebook/history book authors), TEA guesstimates the numbers ... based on what I don't know. Then they show the numbers to the theme park companies and ask them, as a favor, to "comment on them". Meaning, please either tell us they're correct or provide us with the correct numbers.

And - the authors seem to consider this to be a significant fact - supposedly they show the numbers they intend to publish to Disney Corp last, after the other companies have seen and possibly corrected the numbers.

Now it would be expected that TEA would only show each company their estimate for that company's parks. But the authors expressed some suspicion that the numbers are not completely accurate and the process might be skewed. One of them implied that certain companies may be shown the other companies' numbers, presumably as an inducement to get the company to participate.

This is only repeating hearsay, and implied hearsay at that ... but these authors were definitely scoffing at some of the things in the report. Especially the relative rankings of certain parks.

You can see that there is some motivation for some companies, some of the time, to make their numbers look better than they really are. A company that has invested a lot in new attractions would want everyone to see that the investment paid off. A company that has been slacking off and not building new attractions would want to let it be known that they still have great, market-leading numbers. Not that the public are a bunch of dumb sheep or anything, but ... everyone loves a winner. So do investors.

 

[rteetz]

The thing about these numbers and rankings is that they're unofficial and unverified.

The TEA does not actually see the real figures from any theme park company. From what I heard Len Testa and Sam Gennawey saying (theme park guidebook/history book authors), TEA guesstimates the numbers ... based on what I don't know. Then they show the numbers to the theme park companies and ask them, as a favor, to "comment on them". Meaning, please either tell us they're correct or provide us with the correct numbers.

And - the authors seem to consider this to be a significant fact - supposedly they show the numbers they intend to publish to Disney Corp last, after the other companies have seen and possibly corrected the numbers.

Now it would be expected that TEA would only show each company their estimate for that company's parks. But the authors expressed some suspicion that the numbers are not completely accurate and the process might be skewed. One of them implied that certain companies may be shown the other companies' numbers, presumably as an inducement to get the company to participate.

This is only repeating hearsay, and implied hearsay at that ... but these authors were definitely scoffing at some of the things in the report. Especially the relative rankings of certain parks.

You can see that there is some motivation for some companies, some of the time, to make their numbers look better than they really are. A company that has invested a lot in new attractions would want everyone to see that the investment paid off. A company that has been slacking off and not building new attractions would want to let it be known that they still have great, market-leading numbers. Not that the public are a bunch of dumb sheep or anything, but ... everyone loves a winner. So do investors.

This exactly. These numbers are not official. Companies are also influencing these numbers. They are guesstimating. They don't also account for park hopping. From what I've heard and concluded I don't think numbers were as great as some places may have indicated. Tokyo Disneyland however does release their numbers.

 

[rteetz]

The thing that jumps out at me on this is the comment about park hopping.

If these figures only count the first park a guest visits each day, that could be quite significant in comparing figures from 1991, when DHS was in its infancy, and the 2000's, after the Animal Kingdom opened.

According to the charts, in 1991 the total at the 3 parks was about 38 million, and in 2014 the total for the 4 parks was about 51 million. That's about a 34% increase in total number of people visiting at least one park. When you factor in the severe drop in travel after 9/11 (which dropped the 4 park total back to about 38 million) that is a pretty significant increase.

When we look at average daily attendance at a park we would usually just look at that park's attendance. But, if park hoppers are not counted, that could easily add a couple thousand people to the total number of people who actually set foot in a park. Obviously, I have no idea how many people park hop in a day, but I know that we almost always visit 2 parks on every full day of our trips.

This also raises the question for me as to whether Universal counts things the same way. If they don't, comparing Universal to Disney is going to produce skewed results.

It's all counted the same. TEA does the counting. Disney and universal both have their own internal official numbers but those are not released.

 

[rteetz]

Nor do I. I see respectable growth in attendance at MK and almost flat attendance changes at the other 3 Disney Orlando parks. But that could have more to do with how the numbers are derived. Only the first park entered for the day is counted in that report. It's possible for someone to have started at the MK and then finished their day at Epcot for dinner and IllumiNations but only the MK gets counted in that scenario.

Disney should look at these numbers and be alarmed but they aren't. As long as they don't see a decrease in attenadnce and spending they are fine with it. MK should not have almost double the amount of people in two of the four parks. Disney should want attendance to be much higher at Epcot, DHS, and AK. I'm also not saying they should be on MK level because they shouldn't. MK should and will be the most attended park but epcot should be 8 million behind it.

It's also interesting to point out that TDL who actually releases their numbers had an all time high this year for attendance. People who go to TDL and DisneySea say that WDW park numbers are most likely inflated a bit because TDL is packed 24/7.

 

[DDLand]

Disney should look at these numbers and be alarmed but they aren't. As long as they don't see a decrease in attenadnce and spending they are fine with it. MK should not have almost double the amount of people in two of the four parks.

Agreed. Though I don't know about alarmed as much as they should just be excited about the growth opportunity there. It doesn't present a major business risk (yet), but it obviously shows that there's a massive pool of guests who Disney should be collecting with their other three parks. They aren't because they haven't been pushing them hard enough. Why? I can't tell. It just seems intuitive to build something new. I'm getting more and more excited about D23. I'm just really super curious about what they're going to unleash if anything.

 

[rteetz]

Agreed. Though I don't know about alarmed as much as they should just be excited about the growth opportunity there. It doesn't present a major business risk (yet), but it obviously shows that there's a massive pool of guests who Disney should be collecting with their other three parks. They aren't because they haven't been pushing them hard enough. Why? I can't tell. It just seems intuitive to build something new. I'm getting more and more excited about D23. I'm just really super curious about what they're going to unleash if anything.

Based on the people at wdwmagic I find it more and more unlikely that we won't hear any big news at D23 except for maybe something at disneyland. It's really unfortunate. And based on the Jim hill news not getting a D23 announcement would make sense. We an only hope...