JimMIA
There's more to life than mice...
- Joined
- Feb 16, 2005
There is a hurricane in the Eastern Caribbean which should be watched for the next several days.
Hurricane Matthew went from a disturbed area to tropical storm strength very quickly, and has equally quickly progressed to a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds over 100 mph and gusts to 120. This rapid intensification is especially concerning because it occurred with the system moving quickly (17 mph), in an environment with moderate humidity, warmish waters, and strong wind shear -- all of which inhibit strengthening.
At 8 AM Friday, Matthew was located roughly 500 miles south of the Dominican Republic, but much closer to Venezuela (about 120 miles north of the Venezuela-Columbia border). The storm is moving a little south of due west at 14 mph.
As Matthew continues westward, several significant changes will occur. It will slow down, and then turn 90 degrees to the right (north). It will progress from an area with 55% humidity to an area of 65% humidity, from warmish waters to waters that are as warm as oceans get, and the wind shear will be cut in half. Later today or Saturday, Matthew is expected to intensify to a Category 3 hurricane, which is a major storm.
The current forecast track calls for Matthew to strike (or pass east of) Jamaica on Monday morning as a powerful Category 3 hurricane. It is projected to continue northward, probably striking eastern Cuba as a Cat 3. The mountainous area of eastern Cuba is expected to weaken Matthew slightly to Cat 2, and then it is projected to move into the central Bahamas.
Most -- but not all -- of the computer models support the above track. The problem with the track is it depends of the timing of frontal movements over the next several days. This movement is expected to produce a gap which allows Matthew to change course to the north -- but forecasting the timing of that move is very difficult several days ahead of time, and the devil is in the details.
The earlier that opening occurs, the sooner Matthew turns, and the less threat to Florida. If it turns early enough, it could recurve out into the Atlantic and not threaten the US mainland at all.
Or...as one good model suggests, it could go through downtown Miami. Way too soon to tell. We are due to fly to Washington DC on Monday morning, but that trip is very much up in the air due to Matthew.
We'll be watching Matthew closely, and so should you if you're headed to Florida (or HHI) next week.
Hurricane Matthew went from a disturbed area to tropical storm strength very quickly, and has equally quickly progressed to a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds over 100 mph and gusts to 120. This rapid intensification is especially concerning because it occurred with the system moving quickly (17 mph), in an environment with moderate humidity, warmish waters, and strong wind shear -- all of which inhibit strengthening.
At 8 AM Friday, Matthew was located roughly 500 miles south of the Dominican Republic, but much closer to Venezuela (about 120 miles north of the Venezuela-Columbia border). The storm is moving a little south of due west at 14 mph.
As Matthew continues westward, several significant changes will occur. It will slow down, and then turn 90 degrees to the right (north). It will progress from an area with 55% humidity to an area of 65% humidity, from warmish waters to waters that are as warm as oceans get, and the wind shear will be cut in half. Later today or Saturday, Matthew is expected to intensify to a Category 3 hurricane, which is a major storm.
The current forecast track calls for Matthew to strike (or pass east of) Jamaica on Monday morning as a powerful Category 3 hurricane. It is projected to continue northward, probably striking eastern Cuba as a Cat 3. The mountainous area of eastern Cuba is expected to weaken Matthew slightly to Cat 2, and then it is projected to move into the central Bahamas.
Most -- but not all -- of the computer models support the above track. The problem with the track is it depends of the timing of frontal movements over the next several days. This movement is expected to produce a gap which allows Matthew to change course to the north -- but forecasting the timing of that move is very difficult several days ahead of time, and the devil is in the details.
The earlier that opening occurs, the sooner Matthew turns, and the less threat to Florida. If it turns early enough, it could recurve out into the Atlantic and not threaten the US mainland at all.
Or...as one good model suggests, it could go through downtown Miami. Way too soon to tell. We are due to fly to Washington DC on Monday morning, but that trip is very much up in the air due to Matthew.
We'll be watching Matthew closely, and so should you if you're headed to Florida (or HHI) next week.
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