Hurricane Danny

[JimMIA]

There is a hurricane which has formed in the Atlantic and is slowly making its way toward the Caribbean islands.

Danny is currently a Category 3 hurricane with winds of 115 mph. However, Danny is a very small storm and the National Hurricane Center expects the intensity to be subject to wide fluctuations because of the small size. We've already seen dramatic fluctuations in intensity as Danny jumped from a Tropical Storm with 50 mph winds to a 115 mph Category 3 hurricane in a little more than 24 hours.

Danny is in a perfect world right now -- small tight storm, moving slowly through very warm waters, with minimal wind shear. But changing conditions are projected to drop Danny back to a Tropical Storm before making landfall on Monday.

The current 5-day forecast track projects Danny reaching the outermost islands as a Tropical Storm on Monday morning.

The track moves the storm over Puerto Rico and Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti) on Tuesday and Wednesday, although that's 5 days out and there could be a large variance from that track. Hispaniola has significant mountains, and if the storm hits the island directly, those mountains should have a large effect on the storm.

It's much too early to tell whether the storm will have any effect on the US mainland.

For ACCURATE information without the hype, avoid cable TV and go to www.nhc.noaa.gov or www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/hurricane-Danny

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Anything following that might affect weather during Sept 2-5th?

 

[JimMIA]

There is a tropical wave between the African coast and the Cape Verde Islands, but it is WAY too soon to guess -- even a wild guess -- whether it would be a problem.

I doubt if Danny will be a problem by then, although it's still too early to tell. Danny is expected to start moving more rapidly and to weaken soon, but it would be an absolute guess to say where it might be on September 2 -- just way to early right now. In 3-4 days, we'll have a much better feel for where Danny is going.

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

Thanks! I'll keep an eye on the info and see what happens. Just need to know soon enough to decide if I need to pack the poncho, full rain gear or a couple of good books.

 

[Popouri DVC]

We should've packed rain gear for last weekend! It was basically monsooning last Saturday night!

 

[JimMIA]

We should've packed rain gear for last weekend! It was basically monsooning last Saturday night!

Welcome to summer in Florida!

 

[bobbiwoz]

All of going on the Member Cruise on Monday hope Danny just fizzles out!

 

[JimMIA]

SATURDAY, AUG 22 Update:
As expected, Danny weakened greatly overnight, dropping to a 90 mph Category 1 hurricane -- and the 11 AM Discussion from NHC says that may be generous. Danny is expected to further weaken to a tropical storm later today. Danny is expected to hit the northern Leeward Islands on Monday as a tropical storm, and pass over Puerto Rico Tuesday. That's the 3 Day forecast, and NHC has a high degree of confidence in those projections.

Longer term, Danny is expected to go across the northern part of the Dominican Republic (or pass offshore) on Wednesday. The more interaction the storm has with the mountains of the DR, the more weakening will occur.

By Thursday, the system is expected to be just a 35 mph tropical depression in the lower Bahamas, moving toward Miami. If that forecast holds, probably Thursday night I'll see if I can remember where I put my umbrella.

The computer models all look pretty consistent with the above. Assuming the system keeps moving -- which appears likely -- if there is any deviation from that track, I'd expect a recurvature to the north and away from Florida. However, if this system stalls (NOT expected), it is a small, compact system and is therefore capable of rapid intensification. So right now, it doesn't look like much of a threat, but it bears watching for the next few days.

 

[JimMIA]

All of going on the Member Cruise on Monday hope Danny just fizzles out!

What's the first stop on your itinerary? Depending on where you're going, you might not even know there is a storm around.

 

[rwcmath]

Member cruise has Castaway Cay on both Tuesday and Thursday with a day at sea on Wednesday.

 

[JimMIA]

Member cruise has Castaway Cay on both Tuesday and Thursday with a day at sea on Wednesday.

Oh, if it's just a 3 day, you should be fine. You might get a little wet Thursday...or they might divert somewhere else.

 

[JimMIA]

SUNDAY UPDATE:
Danny has weakened further to a 50 mph tropical storm, moving westward at about 15 mph. A combination of forward speed, strong wind shear, and dry air are expected to further weaken Danny over the next 24-48 hours. In addition, the projected track of the system has shifted a little south and now takes the storm directly over the mountainous island of Hispaniola (Dominican Republic and Haiti). If that happens, the mountains are likely to further disrupt the storm. The most likely outcome seems for Danny to be a dissipated low pressure area with 30 mph winds by Thursday, and that could occur earlier.

This will be the last update unless Danny changes significantly.

 

[bobbiwoz]

Yeah! Looks as if the Member Cruise has dodged a bullet! We sail today!

 

[spartankid34]

How about the new waves of the coast of Africa following Danny's path...any ideas about them?

 

[JimMIA]

How about the new waves of the coast of Africa following Danny's path...any ideas about them?

WAY too early to tell if anything will develop.

Danny is done, by the way.

 

[Dean Marino]

WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE!

OK - seriously.... I'm pretty sure Sandy and I walked back thru a hurricane from Fulton's to the Marketplace Bus Stop. Rain gear worked great, except out legs got flooded up to the knee . I'm pretty sure the fact it wasn't worse was WDW's location close to the MIDDLE of the land mass.

Side note - we just got back from a week in San Francisco. EARTHQUAKES! WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!