How long do you think the waiting lists will be for each resort?

Discussion in 'Purchasing DVC' started by babesboo99, Mar 17, 2013.

  1. icouldlivethere

    icouldlivethere Mouseketeer

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    Anyone have any updates as to whether there has been any movement in the waiting lists recently?

    In looking at the BWV contracts that have been ROFR'd so far, it looks like Disney hasn't taken any over $69 pp. At least of the ones that people have reported here on the DisBoards.

    There is a shortage of BWV contracts up for sale right now and the price has gone way up on them. Stripped contracts are going in the mid 70's and non stripped contracts are going in the 80's. I'm wondering if Disney is going to be willing to pay the higher prices. I'm beginning to think we may never get our 25 points we wanted to purchase.
     
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  3. NoleFan

    NoleFan DIS Veteran

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    One thing I have not seen mentioned here when it comes to wait list & Disney getting back points via ROFR. According to the info. I have seen on the Orange County website, Disney prepares closing docs, the seller has to sign & return, the deed & Waiver of ROFR has to be recorded, and whatever else Disney needs to do to regain ownership when buying back points via ROFR. Just like when ROFR gets waived, buyers have to wait for seller to sign & return docs & deed recorded. It's a process. Even though Disney exercises ROFR on a contract, they may not have the points to sell for another month or so until the whole process is complete. I do not work for Disney or have any insider info. but only offering a hypothesis as to part of the reason why the wait list process seems to take so long.

    I also agree with what nd43 said above contributes to it all as well.
     
  4. babesboo99

    babesboo99 Veteren Disney Vacationer

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    My guide just called me and said that he just wanted to touch base and let me know that it should only be a few more weeks . They are acquiring more points and I am just wondering how they are acquiring them
     
  5. ELMC

    ELMC DIS Veteran

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    Disney gets points back through foreclosure at a rate much greater than that of ROFR. That being said, I would take what your "guide" says with a grain of salt. He's a salesman and his job is to sell. Others here have said that their "guides" have told them that they don't know how long it will be until they have points available. It's a little inconsistent if you ask me.
     
  6. Nabas

    Nabas Mouseketeer

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    I suspect something similar. DVD probably operates within a certain amount of capital to "invest" and needs to maximize return on that capital.

    Lots on the waiting list seem to be buying 25-to-75 point add-ons for specific months; pennies to Disney. Yet resale contracts tend to come in much larger chunks; 150 points or more and the better priced ones are over 300 points. Margins might be OK if Disney could get a contract and then quickly sell it in it's entirety or if enough buyers added up to exactly that number of points for that month. However, if Disney has to break up a contract, they could end up sitting on a bunch of points, killing margins. Perhaps worse, what once was a large contract with a relatively low per-point price could end up appearing on the market years later piecemeal at a much higher per-point price, making those more expensive to acquire to satisfy future demand.

    Let's say Disney has 5 pages of people waiting for BWV, with 50 names on each page. OK, 250 potential customers sounds like a lot but they seem to be averaging around 75 points. Simple math: 250 X 75 = 18,750 points. Yet AKV just sold over 130,000 last months alone. AKV's margin is tremendous, with Disney selling at nearly $130/point with incentives while the construction cost is somewhere under $30/point.

    Why poorly invest capital buying at $75/point and selling at $115/point when the margins are much better elsewhere? It's all about smart investment of capital. Ultimately, Disney's going to spend its capital on what provides the best ROI.
     
  7. Nabas

    Nabas Mouseketeer

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    Disney continues to acquire a great deal of points through foreclosure at AKV, BLT, and SSR. However, it seems they acquire considerably fewer through foreclosure at the "classic" DVC resorts.
     
  8. dbs1228

    dbs1228 DIS Veteran

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    I know there are some in this thread that are waiting for BWV Oct and will be happy to know that they just took the contract we were trying for 200 points and Fidelity said there was an identical contract also taken so for sure 400 points Oct UY it should move the wait list along a bit!
     
  9. Nabas

    Nabas Mouseketeer

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    That's stinks, so sad for you!

    Did your contract have banked points?
     
  10. ELMC

    ELMC DIS Veteran

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    I would like to see the numbers to back up this assertion.
     
  11. Nabas

    Nabas Mouseketeer

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    Check out the OCC site. It's interesting to watch the number of DVC contracts reacquired through foreclosure fluctuate from month-to-month but it pretty much always exceeds the number of ROFR'ed contracts at the newer resorts. For example, in the month of April, Disney obtained 2 AKV properties through ROFR but 23 through foreclosure. At BLT, 10 via ROFR, 15 via foreclosure. At SSR, 18 via ROFR, 21 via foreclosure. Recall that ROFR activity in April was the highest it's been in a while. In previously months, the ratio is even more lopsided.

    Conversely, foreclosures at the 4 "classic" DVCs are rare events, perhaps 1 or 2 in a typical month.

    This makes sense to me. Timeshare purchasers tend to be impulse buyers. In the case of Disney, they are at WDW having a great vacation, stopped by one of the many DVC kiosks, and made a decision to purchase while on that vacation. (Always exceptions of course; I am generalizing but am constantly surprised at the number of folks I overhear at WDW buying into DVC without having done a stitch of research.) A lot finance. Sorry to those of you who finance but if you bought directly from Disney and financed your purchase, you haven't made a particularly smart financial decision.

    During the last few years, Disney has sold a disproportionate number of points at the 3 newer resorts. Again, this is common sense since this is what they are actively selling.

    Now it's 2-to-4 year later and impulse buyers are realizing they don't vacation at WDW every year like they thought they would. Those who put 10% or 20% down have discovered their loans are underwater. Might as well let Disney take the points back or, as many of the deeds show, "warranty deed-in-lieu of foreclosure".

    The same happened at the classic resorts but those impulse buyers are long gone now. Most purchasing at the classic resorts today are doing so either via resale or because they knew enough to ask Disney for an older resort. Either way, they know more than most impulse buyers (again, generalizing of course). More often than not, they want, for example, the Villas at the Wilderness Lodge because they've stayed there, know about it (even though Disney is not actively marketing it), and tend to be regular WDW vacationers. Again, generalizing but guests buying at classic resorts probably know more than most impulse buyers at new resorts and probably have an established pattern of vacationing at WDW. They are less likely to be foreclosed on because they really do intend to vacation at WDW every year.
     
  12. hcortesis

    hcortesis Mouseketeer

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    Hello. I understand that BCV points are currently selling for $130. Can someone please tell me the price for BCV before the increase back in March (was it March?, not sure). Thanks
     
  13. lovin'fl

    lovin'fl DIS Veteran

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    I want to say it was $115.
     
  14. hcortesis

    hcortesis Mouseketeer

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    Thanks. On the wait list at $130. Wanted to know what I missed out on.
     
  15. dbs1228

    dbs1228 DIS Veteran

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    Yup all 2011 banked (expire Sept 30 2013) I had sellers bank 2012 points and 2013 coming in Oct!
     
  16. sbro302

    sbro302 Earning My Ears

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    On May 3 my guide told me me that I was 23 in line. Checked back today and he told me I was 4th in line, so hopefully that means things are moving forward.
    :)

    I'm waiting on 100 BWV pts Sep UY. Went on list 3/19
     
  17. babesboo99

    babesboo99 Veteren Disney Vacationer

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    My guide called me last Friday and said that it shouldn't be too long now, so I am figuring a few more weeks. We are waiting on 50pts BCV with an Oct or Sept use year.. We got on the list mar 11th right before the prices went up so we are locked in on the old price
     
  18. ELMC

    ELMC DIS Veteran

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    Have you considered resale?
     
  19. babesboo99

    babesboo99 Veteren Disney Vacationer

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    I looked and I rarely saw a small contract. So we decided to go the direct route apart from the wait it's been a smooth process
     
  20. sleepydog25

    sleepydog25 Been here awhile

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    Called my guide last week and found out (as I expected) that there had been no movement since going on the list 1 March. I'm not figuring there to be any movement soon, either. ;)

    VWL. Small contract.
     
  21. mulberrybush

    mulberrybush Mouseketeer

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    No movement on BLT waitlist for my UY in 3 months!!! Rumph. I'm starting to stress bc we actually need points. I need them by Oct 2013 so I'm crossing fingers and working on contingencies :(
     

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