How accurate are the Touring Plans crowd calendars?

Discussion in 'Disneyland (California)' started by niklynn1, May 18, 2012.

  1. niklynn1

    niklynn1 Mouseketeer

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    We're going to be there from May 30-June 6, but the only crowd calendars I can locate are at Touring Plans? I purchased a subscription to this, but it doesn't seem accurate. It says crowd levels for my week are between 3 and 5, but it says the SAME THING for June 15 and the week after, which is when Carsland opens. I can't imagine that can be true!:sad2:
     
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  3. sonnyjane

    sonnyjane DIS Veteran

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    Oh dear. I wish you would have asked this BEFORE you bought the subscription :)

    They are not accurate AT ALL for Disneyland. They have only been collecting data for a few years and they base it on previous years' attendance, so they don't take into account things like ride openings or when specific grad nights are, etc.
     
  4. CamoMama

    CamoMama DIS Veteran

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    Are you sure you're reading that correctly? I show June 15th being a 9 and and after that 8 for some time. Disneyland crowds are in the 5-6 range, but DCAs are in the 9.5 range.

    I have always found them to be pretty close. And they have taken Carsland into account, they worked on it earlier this year.
     
  5. SpectroMan71

    SpectroMan71 Mouseketeer

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    I'm at the parks a few times per month and I seldom find them accurate. Usually it's that they peg a day at a "1" or "2" and it's crazy crowded, but yes the same goes for days they say 10 and it's very manageable.
     
  6. CalvaryMike

    CalvaryMike DIS Veteran

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    Ever since they started offering the monthly payment plan for the AP's, everyday is busy! :sad2:
     
  7. Babybears

    Babybears Mouseketeer

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    I know a lot of people don't think it is ever accurate, but we found it to be pretty spot on for our trip. I think it depends on the day, but at least it gives you something to go on, just take it with a grain of salt.

    I think one thing is that "busy" is really a relative term. For some a particular day can seem busy and others think it was light. We have been during "off" season and it was not a whole lot less busy than our Summer visit. It's been said that it is harder and harder to find an "off" time at DL and I truly believe that.

    We have visited during your same time frame you are planning to go and I would agree with the historical data on what they said it was like for our visit. The current data for your dates seems about right for the first week of June, so I wouldn't worry. Have a great trip!!! That time of year is our familes favorite time to go!!! :)
     
  8. CamoMama

    CamoMama DIS Veteran

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    I'll be there Sunday, which is predicted to be a 5.2 at DL and 6.3 at DCA, Monday 2.9 and 3.1 and Tuesday 2.4 and 2.9. I'll let you know if those numbers are accurate.

    Again, look at the numbers again, because as I said I'm seeing June 14th as a 10 at DL and DCA 0 as it will be closed, the 15th as a 5.5 at DL and 9.5 at DCA with similar numbers after that for the rest of the month.
     
  9. Babybears

    Babybears Mouseketeer

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    Yes, I agree as this is what I see as well. Please do report back on your trip! It will be good to know how it is looking, busy-wise, as well as always fun to hear about current trip reports!! Have fun!
     
  10. DLR29

    DLR29 We create happiness

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    My guess is that TP's prediction for the 15th is accurate for DCA, but DL will be definitely higher than a 5.5! :scared1:
     
  11. bitohoney

    bitohoney DIS Veteran

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    I see 5s and 6s but I'm not too worried anyway. My last trip was at WDW during Christmas week so I will survive! And luckily I only have 1 grad night. :crazy2:
     
  12. 2boysmom1998

    2boysmom1998 Mouseketeer

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    We are planning on going to DL June 20th and 25th. TP has the 20th being a 5.3 for DL and the 25th a 4.4. I sure hope they are right. I made my travel plans before I knew when Cars Land was opening. If it's way too busy to venture into DCA I can deal with that. I wouldn't mind spending both of your days at DL even though we have a park hopper pass. I do want to see the WOC though, so I may go over to DCA for that only.

    We went to DL last year in June and I think that TP was pretty accurate then with their crowd calendar.
     
  13. niklynn1

    niklynn1 Mouseketeer

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    Yes, I see the higher numbers for DCA now. I don't know if maybe it's changed since I looked at it last, or if perhaps I was only looking at the DL column. :confused3
     
  14. HydroGuy

    HydroGuy DIS Veteran

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    I really love TP's "Lines" app for the iPhone. But their daily crowd ratings are something I never get. I know what they say as far as statistics. But their park ratings never seem to correspond to what I actually experience when I am there.

    I suspect DL will be moderately crowded on those days. If that is a what a 4.4 or 5.3 means at DL then they are right.
     
  15. monkey30

    monkey30 Dreaming of my next vacation!

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    remember with TP they base the crowd calendars on wait times, not actual attendance, so it maybe packed but the ride times are lower there for making the crowd level to be lower (so its packed and they have 2 sides of the ride loading, which lowers the wait time....)
    hope that helps!
     
  16. CamoMama

    CamoMama DIS Veteran

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    Today TP says DL is a 5.2 and DCA is a 6.3. I've walked into DL at 3pm, and that seems very accurate. I haven't gotten on any rides yet, just wandered around with a friend, watched a couple of marching bands and a parade, but even with the roped off viewing areas 5.2 seems right.

    It's hard to tell with DCA right now. I was only there for about an hour before I had to come to the room, and with the walls hemming you in on every side it feels very crowded, but I don't think there are nearly as many people there as it seems, just because of the funneling effect of the walls. I'm heading back in just a few minutes and I plan to ride BTMRR at DL and watch Fantasmic at 9:30, if anything is different then I'll try to post tonight. If not I'll let you know how tomorrow goes as I'll be there for rope drop.
     
  17. markinmt

    markinmt Mouseketeer

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    We were in the parks May 9-11 and the days were rated 1, 1 and 4. I thought it was pretty accurate, though it didn't take into consideration they way Disney approaches Grad Night these days...i.e. grads in the park all day, which in turn made Disneyland at night a crowded mess.

    That said, I don't think I would pay for the service, it's kind of common sense and guess work IMHO.
     
  18. S. S. Columbia

    S. S. Columbia DIS Veteran

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    Touring Plans is hiring a a Disneyland Researcher whose primary responsibility will be to collect posted and actual wait times from various attractions throughout DL and DCA.

    Maybe this will improve their predictions. :upsidedow

    Here's the link: http://blog.touringplans.com/2012/0...blogger-social-media-role-4-month-assignment/

    :earsboy:
     
  19. CamoMama

    CamoMama DIS Veteran

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    The crowd calendar was completely inaccurate for both Monday and Tuesday. It was packed both days, probably closer to a 6 or 7 than a 2 or 3. But, in TPs defense, those crowds were not expected by anyone. I overheard a CM on Tuesday say that they were understaffed because the crowd level should have been much lower. Neither night was grad night, but I did notice several groups of kids with senior t-shirts, they may have been participating in a senior ditch day or something, but that still doesn't account for the high crowd level. And from the looks of things, most of the guests were not local. Sunday there was a distinct local presence, but Monday and Tuesday seemed far more touristy.
     
  20. zeferjen

    zeferjen Mother Knows Best

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  21. dshimel

    dshimel Mouseketeer

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    You can probably come up with just as accurate of numbers by looking at annual pass blockouts and park hours.

    IF DAP is blocked out, then it is one of the 50 busiest days of the year. 10!

    IF socal passes are NOT blocked out, then it will be pretty crowded as there are sooooooo many of these pass holders.

    If the park is open at 8AM and closing at midnight(open 16 hours), then expect huge crowds. 14 hours, only slighly less crowded... 12 hours, maybe not toooo crowded.
     

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