Do you think the resale prices will go up since points are going up?

Discussion in 'Purchasing DVC' started by edk35, Oct 2, 2009.

  1. edk35

    edk35 DIS Veteran

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    Just curious if people will sell their contracts for more per point now that prices are going up per point? I am always looking for small contracts via resells.
     
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  3. Rob S.

    Rob S. DIS Veteran

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    The price per point is only going up for BLT so I doubt that it would have any significant impact on the resale market.
     
  4. edk35

    edk35 DIS Veteran

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    I do believe that AKV is also going up though.
     
  5. wdrl

    wdrl DIS Veteran

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    I'm not sure if AKV's price per point is going up to $120 like BLT, but Disney changed the incentives on 8/30/2009 for some AKV contracts. In August, my wife and I were debating adding on more points. At the time, Disney was offering $19 incentives on 100 points for AKV, bringing the cost to $93 a point. But when we finally got around to calling our Guide on 9/1/2009, we discovered Disney had lowered the AKV incentive from $19 to $10, making the cost $102/point. We ended up making a bid on an AKV resale for $84/point.

    I would expect that if the spread between Disney-direct and resale widens, there will be a greater financial benefit for Disney to ROFR contracts. If Disney RORFs more contracts, then sellers will raise their asking prices, or buyers will raise their offers to insure that they get contracts they really want.
     
  6. CapeCodFam

    CapeCodFam DIS Veteran

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    I think the market will dictate what happens. As the economy goes, so goes DVC resales. As long as the abundant supply is out there for resales, there won't be any sustained increase. Once the supply doesn't meet the demand, they will go up.
     
  7. wildernessDad

    wildernessDad DIS Veteran

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    I doubt it. The resale market is heavily tied to the economy, whereas who knows what drives Disney's prices? I don't pretend to know what makes Disney tick.
     
  8. 5forDiz

    5forDiz DIS Veteran

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  9. edk35

    edk35 DIS Veteran

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    Let me join you.....

    popcorn::

    :drinking1
     
  10. CarolMN

    CarolMN DVC Co-Moderator Moderator

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    Not unless Disney raises the amount it will pay for ROFR. Not enough demand in this economy to force prices up otherwise. Still too many who need to sell.
     
  11. Deb & Bill

    Deb & Bill DVC-Trivia Contest, Apr-2006: Honorable Mention

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    We sold two contracts for much more than we paid for them about two years ago when the direct price from Disney was much lower. I think it's the economy that is driving the resale price, not the current price of points.
     
  12. silmarg

    silmarg SIL

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    The BLT retail sales are a unique situation. DVC is selling from a position of strength there - considering its location.

    The resale market has very different dynamic. What is motivating sellers to sell is often related to the overall economy - which is still sluggish. On the buy side of the equation, I think Disney offering all the discounts of late (buy 4 get 3 and extended free dining) is dampening DVC demand on the resale side.

    I dont suspect resale prices will go up for a while yet. There is still plenty of inventory to work off...

    But my personal opinion is the economy may be turning around. Disney's 2010 discounts are no where near as good as 2009's. And it has me thinking more and more that this is THE best time to buy on the resale market.

    If the market does make a turn, I could see resale prices rebound in 2011-2.
     
  13. Belle & Ariel

    Belle & Ariel DIS Veteran

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    I think as long as BLT sales are strong, resales are not a big competition to Disney. If they are raising the price, I would think sales are good unless it is a ploy to increase sales to beat the price increase.
    If a lot of people go resale to pay $80 a point instead of Disney's $120, I could see Disney increasing use of ROFR to inflate resale prices and make their product more competitive pricewise.
     
  14. edk35

    edk35 DIS Veteran

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    There are some really great deals on the resale websites right now. Hopefully the deals via resales will continue into next year. :goodvibes
     
  15. Jason@dvcstore

    Jason@dvcstore I support "addonitis" Approved Advertiser

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    At The Timeshare Store, Inc.® we try and sell the properties at prices which seem fair to buyer and seller. We also try and sell the properties at a price where Disney is NOT going to exercise ROFR. For example, right now we are selling Saratoga Springs typically for between $67 and $72 per point and Disney is not buying those contracts back. If Disney were to start buying them back at $67, $68 and $69 per point then we would need to advise sellers to list at higher prices.

    Jason
     
  16. edk35

    edk35 DIS Veteran

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    Thanks :thumbsup2
     
  17. jcf

    jcf DIS Veteran

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    While I have 1000 points - all 50-70 point contracts that I will be selling in June 2010. I think by then BLT $125 or more. I think I will be able to get at least $100 even with no points left until 2012. I paid an avg of $90pt.

    I will likely retain at least 250 but want to try new destinations as my son gets older + with 2000 points spent on trips 2009-2010 he'll be ready for a change :)
     
  18. baj0505

    baj0505 Mouseketeer

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    Can you elaborate on why you would advise sellers to list at higher prices if Disney started buying contracts back at a certain price? Is there some tangible difference to the seller when Disney buys a contract thru ROFR versus a private buyer purchasing the contract? Are you basing this on the belief that if Disney is buying back at a certain price they know more about the supply/demand of the timeshare market and the contract was undervalued?
     
  19. chalee94

    chalee94 <font color=green>I thought all sand was ground up

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    Can you elaborate on why you would advise sellers to list at higher prices if Disney started buying contracts back at a certain price?

    the seller makes a little more money. the individual buyer gets the contract. is that not a good thing for everybody?

    Is there some tangible difference to the seller when Disney buys a contract thru ROFR versus a private buyer purchasing the contract?

    there is no tangible difference to the seller. they get the deal they agreed on. there is an intangible aggravation that the seller could have made a couple of extra bucks had the contract been priced to avoid ROFR.

    presumably some/most buyers would prefer to actually get the contract in order to start booking reservations...and might avoid working with a broker that doesn't care whether they wind up with the contract or disney does.

    sure, some buyers don't mind waiting till another suitable contract comes along with the correct resort/use year/number of pts...after having already waited a month or so only to get ROFRed...in order to wait another month or so to see if the next contract gets ROFRed...in order to save a couple of hundred bucks. if a buyer has the time to see if lowball offers will work, i suspect most brokers will pass the offer along...but disney is still in a position to take most of the fire sale prices that come along (and they have the marketing machinery in place to resell the points at higher prices).

    but i'd think most buyers would pay a few bucks a pt extra to avoid having to start all over (or else go to DVC directly for a much higher price.)

    how do you see this differently?
     
  20. Jason@dvcstore

    Jason@dvcstore I support "addonitis" Approved Advertiser

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    Be advised that I do not subscribe to my threads but someone mentioned I should check out this thread again.

    At The Timeshare Store, Inc.® we actually like it best when buyer and seller come to an agreement and the buyer gets the property (not Disney). If we were to sell 25 contracts in a row for Saratoga Springs at $60 per point (and the sellers based on information we told them listed them all at $60 per point) and Disney bought them all back I think we are doing a disservice to buyer and seller based on the information we have available.

    If a seller agrees to a price and Disney buys it back they receive the exact same funds as if the buyer was buying the property. It means no difference to the seller, however, the buyer, of course, will have to decide if they want to purchase another property.

    I am not saying that Disney knows more about the supply/demand of the resale market but I will use this example. Currently we are selling Saratoga Springs contracts typically between $67 and $75 per point. Those contracts are for the most part making it through ROFR. If Disney were to suddenly buy all those contracts back and The Timeshare Store, Inc.® didn't start advising sellers to raise their price or advised buyers as to the most recent buybacks when a buyer is making an offer in the buyback range than I think we are not doing our job as a transaction broker.

    Most of our buyers that purchase I believe are trying to get the property. Some might be going through getting financing or making future plans and they don't like to hear 30 days later Disney is buying the property back.

    I hope that makes sense.

    Feel free to always PM me if you want me to reply to a thread as well.
    Jason
     
  21. DizGirl20

    DizGirl20 DIS Veteran

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    I absolutely agree with you b/c I am one of those potential buyers! We are considering buying resale yet we got the 4/3 deal for our Jan 09 trip; going again May 2010 with a 40% pin code we rec'd. Makes DVC less enticing at the moment...although I know in the long run DVC will be worth it, if and when we decide to buy.
     

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