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Old 12-16-2013, 03:42 PM   #1
PacoDF
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Are there UYs more common than others in resale?

We are waiting for a small AKV contract to appear in resale so we can become members, and I've seen that the UYs of the current listings are not even close to be evenly distributed. December is almost 40% of the total contracts listed right now.

Is this normal? Why is this happening?

As we want buy small contracts so we can add and then sell if needed, the UY selection is important if the resale availability is different for each UY.

Any tips/advice on this matter?

Thanks in advance!
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Old 12-16-2013, 05:16 PM   #2
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If I planned on going to resorts during the summer I would want my "banking deadline" to be close to that season in case I decided to change plans last minute (and still be able to bank my points). December would make sense in that case, at least in my view.

Others may have a different opinion.
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Old 12-16-2013, 05:28 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PacoDF View Post
We are waiting for a small AKV contract to appear in resale so we can become members, and I've seen that the UYs of the current listings are not even close to be evenly distributed. December is almost 40% of the total contracts listed right now.

Is this normal? Why is this happening?
Use Years are not evenly distributed overall, and the distribution varies pretty widely from resort to resort. Here's the best rundown of use year distribution:

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-pro...on-by-use-year

As you can see from that link, 30% of the points at AKV are December use year. BLT has almost 40% of its points in the February use year. Some resorts are more balanced, but none are really evenly distributed.

As to why they're not evenly distributed, it's really not clear.
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Old 12-16-2013, 06:46 PM   #4
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When Disney sold the original contract, they picked the UY. It isn't clear what their reason is but sometimes they sell one month for a long, long time.

Since the UY is for the life of the contract, resales can have more of one month than the others.

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Old 12-16-2013, 07:07 PM   #5
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Originally Posted by dmunsil View Post
Use Years are not evenly distributed overall, and the distribution varies pretty widely from resort to resort. Here's the best rundown of use year distribution:

http://dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc-pro...on-by-use-year

As you can see from that link, 30% of the points at AKV are December use year. BLT has almost 40% of its points in the February use year. Some resorts are more balanced, but none are really evenly distributed.

As to why they're not evenly distributed, it's really not clear.
WoW! this is new for me. I've been reading info of DVC for months now and never thought of this.

Given this data (30% of AKV contracts have Dec UY), then I should look for contracts of December so I can have a better chance in the future to find a add on contract that suits me. Also it's going to be easier to sell if I need to. Unless a real deal appears, of course

Thanks a lot!
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Old 12-16-2013, 07:20 PM   #6
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Originally Posted by PacoDF View Post
WoW! this is new for me. I've been reading info of DVC for months now and never thought of this.

Given this data (30% of AKV contracts have Dec UY), then I should look for contracts of December so I can have a better chance in the future to find a add on contract that suits me. Also it's going to be easier to sell if I need to. Unless a real deal appears, of course

Thanks a lot!
On another note, contracts with another UY might fetch a higher price. Supply and demand.

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Old 12-17-2013, 07:22 AM   #7
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Originally Posted by PacoDF View Post
Given this data (30% of AKV contracts have Dec UY), then I should look for contracts of December so I can have a better chance in the future to find a add on contract that suits me. Also it's going to be easier to sell if I need to. Unless a real deal appears, of course
We have a December UY for AKV. Not our first choice but we got it really cheap and the seller paid for the current year's points.

The problem with a December UY is that they essentially aren't useable (we don't want to get into a perpetual borrowing mode) for a year.

For example, dues are paid in early 2014 but your points are not available until December 2014.

For us, we simply think of our (for example) December 2013 points as points to be used in 2014 and plan accordingly.

However, I think you are right about adding on. If you wanted to add-on at AKV, then December should give you the most options in the future.
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Old 12-17-2013, 07:40 AM   #8
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For example, dues are paid in early 2014 but your points are not available until December 2014.
Yes, you are right. It's not nice to pay the dues 11 months before you get the points. But you can surely find a resale contract with the current year dues already paid (as you did) and then everything is "even" for you: you pay next year's dues a month later than you get points for the previous year.
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Old 12-17-2013, 07:42 AM   #9
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Originally Posted by PacoDF View Post
We are waiting for a small AKV contract to appear in resale so we can become members, and I've seen that the UYs of the current listings are not even close to be evenly distributed. December is almost 40% of the total contracts listed right now.

Is this normal? Why is this happening?

As we want buy small contracts so we can add and then sell if needed, the UY selection is important if the resale availability is different for each UY.

Any tips/advice on this matter?

Thanks in advance!
As noted, they do vary widely. Smaller contracts (25-100) are also both less available and more expensive. Buying say 300 points at the same resort in 50 point increments will likely cost you about $5500 more than simply buying 300 points or maybe 30% more or so. If one buys planning to sell later I must question the initial decision to buy, if one is simply buying insurance, it's very expensive insurance. Not to mention the aggravation of multiple contract closings. Obviously there's a balance compared to buying a single 1000 pt contract. For 300 pts or less, I'd look at a single contract as the most efficient approach. Once you get over that level, most are starting to think multiple home resorts. Even at 300-320, it's not that difficult to get 2 contracts for different home resorts and technically it's still possible for smaller contracts. Plus there's no guarantee that the smaller contracts will continue to sell better. I can easily envision resale limitations that would make them less desirable, not more so.

Assuming future protection is the goal and to have some potential ability to sell, I think a better approach is to underbuy. Say you felt you really needed 300 points right now AND that buying in was a reasonable decision (ie not planning to sell later, etc), one might buy a loaded contract of say 200-250. Easier to sell than 300, saved maybe $10K over buying 300 in increments, one transaction. Of course one could take a combo approach and any variation. Another reason some look at buying smaller is this is all they can afford and that may come into play for some. For most, if it's that tight, they likely shouldn't buy at all if this is the case. However, someone does decide to buy in and that's the situation, still likely better to save up and buy the chunk rather than buying a little along. If it's important and one can afford it, it should only take a couple of years to save the entire amount anyway.
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Old 12-17-2013, 07:46 AM   #10
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Yes, you are right. It's not nice to pay the dues 11 months before you get the points. But you can surely find a resale contract with the current year dues already paid (as you did) and then everything is "even" for you: you pay next year's dues a month later than you get points for the previous year.
In the big picture it shouldn't matter. One can also set dues for autopay so you're paying monthly anyway. One area people often overpay on resale is with dues. The "you get the points, you pay the dues" approach is simply wrong and incorrect. One can easily overpay by 9-10 months worth of dues if not careful, just another reason that a single somewhat larger contract can work out better because you have more negotiating power.
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Old 12-17-2013, 08:54 AM   #11
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As noted, they do vary widely. Smaller contracts (25-100) are also both less available and more expensive. Buying say 300 points at the same resort in 50 point increments will likely cost you about $5500 more than simply buying 300 points or maybe 30% more or so. If one buys planning to sell later I must question the initial decision to buy, if one is simply buying insurance, it's very expensive insurance. Not to mention the aggravation of multiple contract closings. Obviously there's a balance compared to buying a single 1000 pt contract. For 300 pts or less, I'd look at a single contract as the most efficient approach. Once you get over that level, most are starting to think multiple home resorts. Even at 300-320, it's not that difficult to get 2 contracts for different home resorts and technically it's still possible for smaller contracts. Plus there's no guarantee that the smaller contracts will continue to sell better. I can easily envision resale limitations that would make them less desirable, not more so.

Assuming future protection is the goal and to have some potential ability to sell, I think a better approach is to underbuy. Say you felt you really needed 300 points right now AND that buying in was a reasonable decision (ie not planning to sell later, etc), one might buy a loaded contract of say 200-250. Easier to sell than 300, saved maybe $10K over buying 300 in increments, one transaction. Of course one could take a combo approach and any variation. Another reason some look at buying smaller is this is all they can afford and that may come into play for some. For most, if it's that tight, they likely shouldn't buy at all if this is the case. However, someone does decide to buy in and that's the situation, still likely better to save up and buy the chunk rather than buying a little along. If it's important and one can afford it, it should only take a couple of years to save the entire amount anyway.
I get your point, and you are right: is more efficient to buy a larger contract. You'll save a lot in the initial buy and closing costs.

But here is my view:
The initial buy price is just a small part of the total costs of a contract life. As I see it, it's wise (financially) to only own what you really need thus saving a lot of money in yearly dues, and of course the time value of your money invested in the contract initial buy.

Lots of families change their point needs over the years. For example young couples with or without small kids can fit perfectly in Studios at first. Then, as the kids grow older, probably you'll need 1 or 2 BR, and then, when the kids are past teens years, maybe you'll go every other year (instead of every year), or even without your kids, needing less points again. Having your points splitted in two or even more contracts will allow you to adjust your points to your actual needs over the years. I guarantee that if you do this, you'll save way more than the savings in you can get buying only 1 larger contract.

I don't mean you should buy "n" 25 points contracts; I just propose that if you think you'll need let's say 250 points during your most intense Disney years, then it would be financially wise to start maybe with a 100 or 150 points contract (enough for your "studio years", then add-on to complete the 250. And later, when you need less, sell one of the contracts keeping only 100 or 150.

Does that makes sense?
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Old 12-17-2013, 10:10 AM   #12
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Originally Posted by PacoDF View Post
I get your point, and you are right: is more efficient to buy a larger contract. You'll save a lot in the initial buy and closing costs.

But here is my view:
The initial buy price is just a small part of the total costs of a contract life. As I see it, it's wise (financially) to only own what you really need thus saving a lot of money in yearly dues, and of course the time value of your money invested in the contract initial buy.

Lots of families change their point needs over the years. For example young couples with or without small kids can fit perfectly in Studios at first. Then, as the kids grow older, probably you'll need 1 or 2 BR, and then, when the kids are past teens years, maybe you'll go every other year (instead of every year), or even without your kids, needing less points again. Having your points splitted in two or even more contracts will allow you to adjust your points to your actual needs over the years. I guarantee that if you do this, you'll save way more than the savings in you can get buying only 1 larger contract.

Does that makes sense?

SO MUCH WISDOM:

1) Dues are the real cost. We paid $10k for our 160 SSR points. We will pay around $71k in dues assuming we hold it for the remaining years of the contract. VGF, which we purchased direct, was $16.5k, and over the remaining years of the contract we will pay approximately $112k in dues. So if I pay a BIT more up front to ensure I can easily divest myself of unnecessary contracts when we are no longer using a 2 BR for our stays, I will be saving a LOT more because I can shave the extra unnecessary dues off for, say, in the case of VGF, 25/30 years.

Example. We own our 110 points at VGF for 25 years, the kids finish school and are too cool to do Disney vacays (they will be 22-24 ish). We decide we can cut 50 pts and still stay easily in a 1 BR or studio a week or two each year even in peak seasons. We've paid about $24k in dues by then on our 110 points. If we then sell the 50 unneeded pts, we only end up paying an additional $26k for the remainder of the contract, assuming we use it till we're in our 80s The point is, we save over 50k long term if my spreadsheet is still accurate (it is supposed to take into account inflation/compounding and such--although I haven't looked at the formulas carefully since July)

So if you are to pay a BIT more now in getting smaller contracts, you can save a LOT more long term by being able to taper your points and minimize your dues.

We bought in August thinking we were going to use 1 Brs. SURPRISE, it's December and we're expecting a 3rd in July... sounds like 2 Brs now
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Old 12-17-2013, 09:27 PM   #13
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I get your point, and you are right: is more efficient to buy a larger contract. You'll save a lot in the initial buy and closing costs.

But here is my view:
The initial buy price is just a small part of the total costs of a contract life. As I see it, it's wise (financially) to only own what you really need thus saving a lot of money in yearly dues, and of course the time value of your money invested in the contract initial buy.

Lots of families change their point needs over the years. For example young couples with or without small kids can fit perfectly in Studios at first. Then, as the kids grow older, probably you'll need 1 or 2 BR, and then, when the kids are past teens years, maybe you'll go every other year (instead of every year), or even without your kids, needing less points again. Having your points splitted in two or even more contracts will allow you to adjust your points to your actual needs over the years. I guarantee that if you do this, you'll save way more than the savings in you can get buying only 1 larger contract.

I don't mean you should buy "n" 25 points contracts; I just propose that if you think you'll need let's say 250 points during your most intense Disney years, then it would be financially wise to start maybe with a 100 or 150 points contract (enough for your "studio years", then add-on to complete the 250. And later, when you need less, sell one of the contracts keeping only 100 or 150.

Does that makes sense?
Obviously there's give and take. When you say buy in small and add small, I'm thinking 25, 50 likely 100 at max per and that's what we normally see when people discuss the direction of your OP. This post gives a different flavor than your initial post. I wouldn't buy more than what you needed but I would not buy smaller contracts simply for future options. If you only need less now and are pretty sure that's all you'll need, then do not buy a lot extra. I would caution people looking at buying in about cutting it too close though. And I still think one can do a single contract and hedge both sides easier and cheaper than buying multiple for no other reasons. I think a lot of people go in thinking they'll get a studio and many don't. For smaller contracts, I'd suggest you look at your expected usage and decide how many points you think you need. For many you should then add in at least 10-20% extra points if possible. On the extremes, lets say you judge you need 100 points to get your studio yearly in Adventure or Choice season compared to a 2 BR Premier yearly at say 500 points (for sake of discussion). For the former you likely need a 20-30% minimum extra points, the later, no extra at all or even a planned small deficit.

Plus I think a lot of people can anticipate what/when they'll need. Say you're a family of 4 with 1 on the way. You know that you can only get by with a studio for a few times, that you'll be in a 1 BR pretty soon in most cases and that eventually you'll be in a 2 BR then maybe back to a 1 BR as the kids age out and don't go routinely. In this type situation I still think it best to buy roughly what you need in such a way you have a little to modestly extra now and a little deficit when you get to the 2 BR stage. I still do not believe than planning to buy resale in stages is a good move in this type situation. Now sometimes you buy and later you decide you really need more, that happens and you really have no choice but you're still paying more than if you'd planned better.

As for dues, I do not believe the strategy of paying more pp and extra closings is nearly as cost effective as a smart initial purchase. While the dues have cost, they also come with a pp value that should exceed the cost either in usage or rental if needed. While I'm a big proponent of including the TVM, I don't think it really applies here for a planned purchase because I think the long term cost including the TVM will be more buying something now and something else in a few years while spending more total to do so.

Ultimately there are many variables that have to be factored and will affect specific decisions so all I can do is to speak either to principles (which I have) or to a specific situation which we haven't laid out. I'm more comfortable with maybe 150 buy in to see over say three 50 pt contracts. Now if you can find someone selling as a package, occasionally you can get the best of both worlds but that doesn't happen too often.
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Old 12-25-2013, 09:10 PM   #14
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So sorry to hijack but I'm having a hard time wrapping my mind around the use year. If we primarily plan to travel in mid-November, with the occasional Christmas trip, what would be an ideal use year? I thought I had narrowed it down to October being ideal, but just wanted to run this by the experts. Thanks!
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Old 12-25-2013, 09:38 PM   #15
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Yes, you are right. It's not nice to pay the dues 11 months before you get the points.
Dues are paid on a calendar year basis and cover the costs of operating the resort for the coming year. For a Dec UY contract, the 2013 calendar year includes the last 11 months of the Dec 2012 UY and the first month of the Dec 2013 UY. In terms of points, the dues paid in Jan 2013 cover 11/12ths of the Dec 2012 points and 1/12th of the Dec 2013 points. In other words, you are not paying dues in January for points you do not get until 11 months later. You are paying for the points that, if spread evenly over your UY, overlap with the current calendar year.
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