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Old 11-10-2013, 11:23 AM   #76
beer dave
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Originally Posted by ilovemk76 View Post
ITA All the ones who are complaining that I get to ride X 10 times in a day with FP- are going to be unhappy. They will have to explore other parts of the park. They might even discover other things they like. Some will stop coming. Others will replace them and have a better experience with them gone.
Agreed-- they will be unhappy. I just think that they are really in the small minority. The number of available FP has to dictate that. The change will please more people than it displeases.
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Old 11-10-2013, 01:11 PM   #77
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So in reading this...I'm gonna have to assume that you feel that labor control is NOT part of the program here...to predict is to limit.

Fundamentally disagree...they aren't going to all this trouble to provide all the children with "better flow" on fastpasses...or because they desperately need a reprogramable avatar ride.

There is an economic upside to the cheese here...or not one dime gets spent.
Period.

And "increased value" isn't what they bank on...it's all short term changes that lead to large profits across a 50 million visit spectrum.

We shall see.
For the most part, no I do not believe that labor adjustments are a big driver behind FP+. Disney hotel occupancy levels, DME rider data, restaurant dining reservations and other metrics can already be used to project crowd levels. Not to mention 40+ years of historical park attendance data.

Disney will probably be able to reduce labor if MDE / FP+ eventually requires less staffing across the board. Park entrance gates reportedly now require fewer staff members. Without paper FastPass ticket machines, the CMs who normally staff those locations are eliminated, along with any maintenance personnel required to keep the machines running, stock tickets, etc.

The most significant opportunities MDE presents for Disney (IMO) are:

- Increased merchandise sales. Whether it's because the touch-to-pay system is so easy to use, FP+ gives users more time to shop or some other reason, Iger has already told investors that people testing MDE are spending more in the parks than non-participants.

- Depending upon how FP+ is monetized, Disney will make more money off that specific product. If FP+ is eventually exclusive to Disney resort guests, higher demand will allow for higher room rates (and/or reduced discounting.) If Disney resort guests simply get a better FP+ benefit than those staying off-site, similar impact. If they charge day guests to use FP+, again, new revenue stream.

If FP+ ride reservations prove to be consistently booked days or weeks in advance, Disney will LOSE business. There are people who absolutely will not pay $100 for admission to DHS if they know the only way to ride Toy Story Mania or Rock N Rollercoaster is via a 60-120 minute standby wait.

Disney shouldn't have to spend more than a billion dollars on MDE to tell them whether they need 19 or 20 people to operate Haunted Mansion on a Saturday in October. As a vehicle for cutting a person here and a person there--CMs making $12 per hour--it would take decades to recoup the cost of MDE.
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Old 11-10-2013, 03:19 PM   #78
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I'm sure they tracked the heck out of this in advance... They always do.

But there's no way that the angle is not for
Profit for a New York financial district minute.

Profit is at least 90% of the motivation - rest assured.

I see the motives as this:

1. Merchandise - either through ease of sales, reduction in attraction/dining times leading to more shop time...or likely both (the winner and still undefeated champion)

2-4 (any order you like)

Operation cost reductions (through staff and maybe operating hours)
The ability to identify and sell additional fee...whatever's
Pack more people in with the same inventory of things to do (which is beyond stale... Lets be honest)


That's where I'm at...not alot of upside... And the lack of sales pitch on this has me thinking I'm right.

If they honestly think the thing that's holding them back from packing 75 mil a year into that place...for a week at port Orleans in exchange for most people's life savings...is that the lines are too long and keeping them away?...then that's worst take I've ever seen from kindergarten - let alone a billion dollar company.

Time will tell...the only upside right now for me may be a tad of convenience ( and it ain't that big) and the elimination of the fastpass runners/junkies.

Cause let's face it... What the heck is everyone running at rope drop to get?
Soarin? Toy story? Expedition mechanical failure? Princess time with belle?

That doesn't make sense and bye bye.
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Old 11-10-2013, 05:33 PM   #79
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The more I think about this (and I'll admit I try not to think about it) I see the benefit to Disney and to the Guest in reducing time spent waiting in lines.

Disney gets the benefit of a guest who is doing more with their time so they come away with an overall positive experience. Disney also benefits because the less time a guest spends in line is more time for them to dine or shop.

The guests benefits by not having to spend a lot of time in lines. They can do more (if they want to) without long waits.
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Old 11-10-2013, 06:05 PM   #80
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I haven't read through this entire thread so I apologize if the following has already been written.

I think Disney knows exactly what they are doing with this tiered system and what they are doing is smart...smart for the company's bottom line, that is.

Newbies:
Let's say family X is planning a holiday. Being newbies, they more or less wing it, go and either have a great time or are very frustrated. Either way, they have probably learned something and will be better prepared if they return. Leading us to....

Repeat customers:
Repeat customers will be familiar with rides, lines, fast pass+, etc. They will know that on site can prebook FP+ while offsite is limited to (presumably) whatever is still available day of. They will know they can only book 1 headliner per day. They will know they can only use one FP+ in one park per day. What will they do? Book a longer holiday on site. They will spend 2 days at Epcot instead of 1, 3 days at MK instead of 2. touring will be more leisurely, more time will be spent eating and shopping. those days that may have been spent at universal or seaworld will now be devoted to Disney.

Wasn't that the whole point of this nextgen initiative anyway? Keep people at Disney? What better way to do that than to limit the number of popular attractions that can be accessed in one day and make it easier for on site guests to access them?
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Old 11-10-2013, 06:19 PM   #81
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Originally Posted by boogienights View Post
I haven't read through this entire thread so I apologize if the following has already been written.

I think Disney knows exactly what they are doing with this tiered system and what they are doing is smart...smart for the company's bottom line, that is.

Newbies:
Let's say family X is planning a holiday. Being newbies, they more or less wing it, go and either have a great time or are very frustrated. Either way, they have probably learned something and will be better prepared if they return. Leading us to....

Repeat customers:
Repeat customers will be familiar with rides, lines, fast pass+, etc. They will know that on site can prebook FP+ while offsite is limited to (presumably) whatever is still available day of. They will know they can only book 1 headliner per day. They will know they can only use one FP+ in one park per day. What will they do? Book a longer holiday on site. They will spend 2 days at Epcot instead of 1, 3 days at MK instead of 2. touring will be more leisurely, more time will be spent eating and shopping. those days that may have been spent at universal or seaworld will now be devoted to Disney.

Wasn't that the whole point of this nextgen initiative anyway? Keep people at Disney? What better way to do that than to limit the number of popular attractions that can be accessed in one day and make it easier for on site guests to access them?
Re repeat customers, I could see that. To be fair, there is enough to do at Epcot to fill 2 days, same for 3 at MK.
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Old 11-10-2013, 07:05 PM   #82
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Originally Posted by ilovemk76 View Post
ITA All the ones who are complaining that I get to ride X 10 times in a day with FP- are going to be unhappy. They will have to explore other parts of the park. They might even discover other things they like. Some will stop coming. Others will replace them and have a better experience with them gone.


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Originally Posted by beer dave View Post
Agreed-- they will be unhappy. I just think that they are really in the small minority. The number of available FP has to dictate that. The change will please more people than it displeases.
Agreedx2. We were part of FP+ testing last December and finally after all these years were able to ride TSM. Will use MB and FP+ to ride it again this year. It was also helpful to allow us special viewing to watch a parade without people pushing to get in front of us. We count on being part of those people who it will please as we typically do not run through the part pulling numerous fast passes.
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Old 11-10-2013, 09:57 PM   #83
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Re repeat customers, I could see that. To be fair, there is enough to do at Epcot to fill 2 days, same for 3 at MK.
For some, sure. My family typically spends one day in each park and leaves well before closing. I can't imagine going to MK 3 times during the course of a holiday. We stay offsite and hit universal, waterparks, and Busch gardens as well.
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Old 11-11-2013, 11:36 AM   #84
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Originally Posted by boogienights View Post
I haven't read through this entire thread so I apologize if the following has already been written.

I think Disney knows exactly what they are doing with this tiered system and what they are doing is smart...smart for the company's bottom line, that is.

Newbies:
Let's say family X is planning a holiday. Being newbies, they more or less wing it, go and either have a great time or are very frustrated. Either way, they have probably learned something and will be better prepared if they return. Leading us to....

Repeat customers:
Repeat customers will be familiar with rides, lines, fast pass+, etc. They will know that on site can prebook FP+ while offsite is limited to (presumably) whatever is still available day of. They will know they can only book 1 headliner per day. They will know they can only use one FP+ in one park per day. What will they do? Book a longer holiday on site. They will spend 2 days at Epcot instead of 1, 3 days at MK instead of 2. touring will be more leisurely, more time will be spent eating and shopping. those days that may have been spent at universal or seaworld will now be devoted to Disney.

Wasn't that the whole point of this nextgen initiative anyway? Keep people at Disney? What better way to do that than to limit the number of popular attractions that can be accessed in one day and make it easier for on site guests to access them?
Or you can keep them at Disney by putting in more stuff that people want to do.(new attractions) What is the driving force @ Universal that has caused their attendance and revenue to increase? They are putting in new attractions. Its like the sports franchise that hasn't been very good for a couple of years, they build a new stadium and games are sold out because everyone wants to see the new stadium.
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Old 11-11-2013, 12:10 PM   #85
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Or you can keep them at Disney by putting in more stuff that people want to do.(new attractions) What is the driving force @ Universal that has caused their attendance and revenue to increase? They are putting in new attractions. Its like the sports franchise that hasn't been very good for a couple of years, they build a new stadium and games are sold out because everyone wants to see the new stadium.
It's not that simple. Really depends upon a number of specifics.

Four years ago Islands of Adventure was only drawing 4.5 million guests per year. That's less than half of what Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom were drawing at the time...1/3 of Epcot and about 1/4 of Magic Kingdom.

There was tremendous room for growth at IOA. And sure enough, four years after Harry Potter IOA is up around 8 million guests.

It is very unlikely that Disney would have seen that sort of growth even if they had been the ones to add HP. IOA's numbers were so low that growth was inevitable. They just needed the right investment...and they did quite well when making that decision.

Similar thing happened at Disney California Adventure. Five years ago, DCA attendance was 1/3 of Disneyland...two parks which are literally 200' apart. Disney invested a billion dollars and suddenly attendance is up 2 million. It helps that the new attractions were well received, but the growth says more for DCA's low starting point than its eventual end point. Spend the same money in Disneyland and there is no way its attendance would have grown by the same 2 million bodies.
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Old 11-11-2013, 12:39 PM   #86
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It's not that simple. Really depends upon a number of specifics.

Four years ago Islands of Adventure was only drawing 4.5 million guests per year. That's less than half of what Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom were drawing at the time...1/3 of Epcot and about 1/4 of Magic Kingdom.

There was tremendous room for growth at IOA. And sure enough, four years after Harry Potter IOA is up around 8 million guests.

It is very unlikely that Disney would have seen that sort of growth even if they had been the ones to add HP. IOA's numbers were so low that growth was inevitable. They just needed the right investment...and they did quite well when making that decision.

Similar thing happened at Disney California Adventure. Five years ago, DCA attendance was 1/3 of Disneyland...two parks which are literally 200' apart. Disney invested a billion dollars and suddenly attendance is up 2 million. It helps that the new attractions were well received, but the growth says more for DCA's low starting point than its eventual end point. Spend the same money in Disneyland and there is no way its attendance would have grown by the same 2 million bodies.
I see what you are saying, IOA had no where to go but up, however don't you think there whole tracking program would have been easier to sell if there were more attractions to spread out what guests are already in the park?

I know Disney isn't interested per se in increasing attendance(they already have top market share in that) but to increase on site guests(IE resort guests).

Tie in new attractions with the lastest greatest technology and a new stay onsite pkg deal and you are filling rooms. It just seems like a tough sell to some longtime Disneyphiles.
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Old 11-11-2013, 12:43 PM   #87
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For some, sure. My family typically spends one day in each park and leaves well before closing. I can't imagine going to MK 3 times during the course of a holiday. We stay offsite and hit universal, waterparks, and Busch gardens as well.
We vacationed the same way, 1 MK, 2 epcot(my older son liked epcot), 1 in each of the others, 2 at Universal, 1 seaworld, 1 day at Kennedy Space Ctr., 1 do nothing day.

Did Busch Gardens one summer when we went to the Gulf for 10 days.
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Old 11-11-2013, 12:51 PM   #88
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I see what you are saying, IOA had no where to go but up, however don't you think there whole tracking program would have been easier to sell if there were more attractions to spread out what guests are already in the park?

I know Disney isn't interested per se in increasing attendance(they already have top market share in that) but to increase on site guests(IE resort guests).

Tie in new attractions with the lastest greatest technology and a new stay onsite pkg deal and you are filling rooms. It just seems like a tough sell to some longtime Disneyphiles.
Easy for us to say since we aren't writing the checks.

Avatar is on its way and Star Wars is waiting in the wings. Disney isn't breaking any records moving those projects forward, but they are coming.

The biggest problem with these discussions is that we really don't know exactly what we're debating / critiquing. When it comes to FP+, the knee-jerk reaction among most people seems to be the assumption that they will come out on the losing end. Some how they will end up spending more time in line, riding fewer attractions and paying more for the experience.

But Disney isn't going to introduce a program where most guests end up 'losing'. Their primary goal with MDE is probably not 'to improve the guest experience.' I'm quite sure financial motivation ranks higher. But they aren't going to meet financial goals if they alienate guests. Even a 5-7% drop in attendance linked to FP+ could be devastating.

Attraction capacity isn't changing. If I can ride Star Tours 5 times per day now in a typical visit to Hollywood Studios, I have every expectation that I'll be able to arrange a similar number of visits after FP+ is running. I just won't know exactly how I'll plan those rides until I see how the entire FP+ system is implemented.
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Old 11-11-2013, 01:06 PM   #89
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Easy for us to say since we aren't writing the checks.

Avatar is on its way and Star Wars is waiting in the wings. Disney isn't breaking any records moving those projects forward, but they are coming.

The biggest problem with these discussions is that we really don't know exactly what we're debating / critiquing. When it comes to FP+, the knee-jerk reaction among most people seems to be the assumption that they will come out on the losing end. Some how they will end up spending more time in line, riding fewer attractions and paying more for the experience.

But Disney isn't going to introduce a program where most guests end up 'losing'. Their primary goal with MDE is probably not 'to improve the guest experience.' I'm quite sure financial motivation ranks higher. But they aren't going to meet financial goals if they alienate guests. Even a 5-7% drop in attendance linked to FP+ could be devastating.

Attraction capacity isn't changing. If I can ride Star Tours 5 times per day now in a typical visit to Hollywood Studios, I have every expectation that I'll be able to arrange a similar number of visits after FP+ is running. I just won't know exactly how I'll plan those rides until I see how the entire FP+ system is implemented.
I think the only definite is that they will be paying more for the experience, but I agree no one has a clue as to what the final product will look like.(I think not even Disney)

As far as riding Star Tours I think it depends on your perception of how you were able to ride it 5x. If you used more than one fastpass then you are going to believe that riding it that many times isn't possible anymore. If you did it by getting to RD and riding it 5x from the standby line, then you will think why is everyone getting so worked up over this, this doesn't affect me.
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Old 11-11-2013, 01:14 PM   #90
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I think the only definite is that they will be paying more for the experience ...
That's Disney's goal, but it doesn't mean I have to play along. They may envision this as a system where I spend less time waiting in line and more time in shops, thereby spending more money in those shops.

But there's nothing compelling me to actually walk away with another t-shirt.

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As far as riding Star Tours I think it depends on your perception of how you were able to ride it 5x. If you used more than one fastpass then you are going to believe that riding it that many times isn't possible anymore.
The question is whether that "belief" becomes reality.

If Disney goes forward with the tiers and other apparent FP+ restrictions, it's entirely possible that they will end up issuing fewer FastPasses for Star Tours. As such, more riders will be pulled from the Standby line all day long, making that line move faster than it does today.

Again, I keep circling back to the idea that attraction capacities aren't changing. If I cannot ride as many times as I did in the past under FP+...or have to wait longer for each ride...then it stands to reason that other people are benefitting at my expense.

Given the FREE and OPEN ACCESS of the legacy FP system to ALL GUESTS, I'm not exactly clear on how the new system will lessen my experience while benefitting others.
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