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Old 11-05-2013, 11:17 AM   #301
AmyB2006
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Disney already charges for the ability to park hop and I'm not sure what the markup per ticket is on that. So if they were to offer a express pass for all 4 parks on top of that I shudder to think what they would charge for that.
They already sell it...the VIP tour. $1800 bucks for six hours for ten people.
I stand corrected. You were quoteing robpa, but he was answering my scenario.
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:20 AM   #302
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You didn't ask me but I'll take a shot. I don't think offsite will get prebooking privileges, or they will find a way to make the booking windows different so there is still a huge advantage for onsite customers who plan ahead.
Then why do you think they wouldn't just do that with FP now - or in the past? Imagine FP- available to only resort guests.

Doesn't this theory involve alienating all of your offsite guests and some of your onsite guests?
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:23 AM   #303
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That would be my opinion. But my opinion on this matter is worth less than this post, and is pure speculation. If they do offer it outside, I would think it would then be tiered... or, they'll roll it out to certain hotels that feed the Disney coffers one way or another like the Swan and Dolphin. It will not be "equality - anyone who buys a ticket whether resort guest or day passer gets the same". (purely my opinion, no inside knowledge)
What's your logic on a free across the board system going to a resort-based, tiered system?
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:25 AM   #304
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No, Tink is indeed right. I'm planning w several other ppl and know several travel agents, and the general populace is more of the "oh that's neat ok we'll figure that out" than "oh my god the sky is falling i'm going to have to change the way I do things!" The doom and gloom really is only out here and from a select few.
The general populace doesn't know enough to recognize the disaster that's on the horizon. Ignorance is bliss. We "doom and gloom" experts/veterans see the portents because we have an intricate working knowledge of how the sausage is made and can extrapolate likely outcomes.

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Yes, it does. Disney is not apologizing for FP+. They are rolling it out. It's not turning around, and KTTW will go away. They are selling this as the huge benefit that it is. They will continue to raise prices and make more money because of it.
They are marketing it as the huge benefit they claim it to be.

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Fortunately for us, Disney is run by some very good minds who embrace change and growth and not by the "it ain't broke so don't improve it" grumps.
More like "it ain't broke, so please don't break it." Change does not equal growth if you make things worse.

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Serious questions:

Was anyone here a loyal guest when Disney went to the FP system?

I know how I feel at the end of a long day now, standing in line and watching FPers gleefully sauntering ahead, and feeling a just tinge of jealousy (yes, I do commando planning and FPing) at that moment. What was it like when FP first came around and you saw the FPers walking right past?
Why weren't you one of the ones sauntering by with FP in hand?

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I don't think this is going to be like ADRs where you have to do this. I could be wrong. Only time will tell. If their intent is to have FP available the day of, then there is no way rides will be "booked up" 60 days in advance.
That is yet to be seen. I have informed you thusly.
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:31 AM   #305
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That is yet to be seen. I have informed you thusly.
It is yet to be seen, but they have stated that is their intent.


Thusly? Really? LOL
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:33 AM   #306
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Thusly? Really? LOL
Google it.
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:34 AM   #307
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We "doom and gloom" experts/veterans see the portents because we have an intricate working knowledge of how the sausage is made and can extrapolate likely outcomes.
And, as seen up to now, what we have postulated has come to reality.
Those who have seen few problems with FP+ have been at the expense of regular FP.

As FP+ usage continues to grow for ON-SITE guest testing, regular FP has experienced less and less flexibility and availability.

As FP+ usage continues to grow adding in OFF-SITE guests, regular FP and FP+ will experience less and less flexibility and availability, especially for week-of/day-of.

It's not panic, it's math.

I do not fear change.
I do fear "the law of unintended consequences" when arbitrary changes are made.
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:36 AM   #308
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Why weren't you one of the ones sauntering by with FP in hand?
I was, at times. But you can't hold FPs for everything. And FP has always been a known quantity on my visits

I was just looking for the experience of those earlier devotees who went from abject fairness to subjective fairness...
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:37 AM   #309
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Right now?

Set alarm clock to 11:55pm day minus 61 of trip

Make coffee

Log onto MDE

Pray The Mine Train is still there
Next step.....when Mine Train is not available, spend the next 13 days toiling over whether to cancel your trip before the 45 day mark.
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Old 11-05-2013, 11:53 AM   #310
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And, as seen up to now, what we have postulated has come to reality.

It's not panic, it's math.

I do not fear change.
I do fear "the law of unintended consequences" when arbitrary changes are made.
And the numbers are finite, ride capacity is finite. You can increase the percentage of reserved FP+ for a given attraction, but only to the detriment for same day FP+ availability and stand-by.

Same for onsite FP+ to off-site, etc.

Which is why the numbers extracted from the tiered testing leading up to and through the holidays will be very interesting.
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Old 11-05-2013, 12:03 PM   #311
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Next step.....when Mine Train is not available, spend the next 13 days toiling over whether to cancel your trip before the 45 day mark.
Too true- I was going to toss in a laughing smiley face but you hit painfully too close to home since I just had to make that decision myself last week......
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Old 11-05-2013, 12:14 PM   #312
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And the numbers are finite, ride capacity is finite. You can increase the percentage of reserved FP+ for a given attraction, but only to the detriment for same day FP+ availability and stand-by.

Same for onsite FP+ to off-site, etc.

Which is why the numbers extracted from the tiered testing leading up to and through the holidays will be very interesting.
Sure they're finite. In the new calculation, guests are limited to 3 FPs per day. That will represent an overall reduction in the number of FPs within a certain class of guests, an increase in another.

But wait times are also affected by the number of people holding FPs actually using them. Disney doesn't calculate wait times now by FPs issued, but by actually picking a standby guest and measuring his actual time from A to B.

I suspect that the follow-through rate on FP holders who booked them months out will be lower than that of those who got them 2 hours ago.
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Old 11-05-2013, 12:28 PM   #313
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Originally Posted by Robo View Post
And, as seen up to now, what we have postulated has come to reality.
Those who have seen few problems with FP+ have been at the expense of regular FP.

As FP+ usage continues to grow for ON-SITE guest testing, regular FP has experienced less and less flexibility and availability.

As FP+ usage continues to grow adding in OFF-SITE guests, regular FP and FP+ will experience less and less flexibility and availability, especially for week-of/day-of.

It's not panic, it's math.

I do not fear change.
I do fear "the law of unintended consequences" when arbitrary changes are made.
I think the current problems with fp- availability are the double (triple/quadruple) dippers. Not only do you have fp- coming out for fp+, but you also have people abusing the system taking way more fp- than they ever used to so they get used up faster.
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Old 11-05-2013, 12:41 PM   #314
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Then why do you think they wouldn't just do that with FP now - or in the past? Imagine FP- available to only resort guests.

Doesn't this theory involve alienating all of your offsite guests and some of your onsite guests?
I don't think they want to alienate anyone completely. Thats why I think the onsite perk regarding this wil be the booking window only...not number of FPs, not type of FPs...I also dont think there will ever be resort tiers for onsite, with value getting less than mod, etc
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Old 11-05-2013, 12:43 PM   #315
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Next step.....when Mine Train is not available, spend the next 13 days toiling over whether to cancel your trip before the 45 day mark.
Ugh. Especially if you have flights involved.
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