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Old 07-14-2013, 12:04 AM   #31
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Originally Posted by Shaden View Post
And of course this in the FAQ is repeatedly noted that you can book these FPs same day IF ... giant .... IF there are any left available.

It is quite possible that all the FPs for an attraction you want will book up long in advance of the day you are in the park .
That's very true. But again if you consider the logistics of the FP+ system, it seems very unlikely that rides will consistently "sell out" prior to arrival.

Under the current setup, it's possible to get 2 or 3 sets of FastPasses for a single attraction in one day--even a high demand attraction like Toy Story Mania.

With FastPass+, not only are you limited to one set of FPs per attraction but you have to choose ONE experience from a group which may include the likes of TSM, Rock N Rollercoaster and Fantasmic. Not all guests will choose to pre-register and even among those who do, many will choose the other options in that grouping.

IMO, the ones most likely to "sell out" are the once daily park experiences like reserved viewing space for Fantasmic, Illuminations, Wishes or the parades. Reserved viewing sections for those may only hold a few hundred guests per day while attractions cycle upward of 10,000 guests daily.

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At the very least, the desirable times will be gone.
What is a "desirable time"?

People fill the parks from 8/9am until close. One guest wants to ride Toy Story Mania right upon arrival at 9am. Another guest wants mid afternoon. Another won't arrive until dinner time and wants an evening ride time.

In this regard, I consider it a vast improvement over the current system which necessitates an early arrival, an often useless walk to the rear of the theme park and a "take it or leave it" approach to the return time.
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Old 07-14-2013, 12:29 AM   #32
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Originally Posted by tjkraz View Post
That's very true. But again if you consider the logistics of the FP+ system, it seems very unlikely that rides will consistently "sell out" prior to arrival.

Under the current setup, it's possible to get 2 or 3 sets of FastPasses for a single attraction in one day--even a high demand attraction like Toy Story Mania.

With FastPass+, not only are you limited to one set of FPs per attraction but you have to choose ONE experience from a group which may include the likes of TSM, Rock N Rollercoaster and Fantasmic. Not all guests will choose to pre-register and even among those who do, many will choose the other options in that grouping.

IMO, the ones most likely to "sell out" are the once daily park experiences like reserved viewing space for Fantasmic, Illuminations, Wishes or the parades. Reserved viewing sections for those may only hold a few hundred guests per day while attractions cycle upward of 10,000 guests daily.



What is a "desirable time"?

People fill the parks from 8/9am until close. One guest wants to ride Toy Story Mania right upon arrival at 9am. Another guest wants mid afternoon. Another won't arrive until dinner time and wants an evening ride time.

In this regard, I consider it a vast improvement over the current system which necessitates an early arrival, an often useless walk to the rear of the theme park and a "take it or leave it" approach to the return time.
At animal kingdom nearly all rides are walk on from 4:00 until close. I wouldn't need a FP then.

Most people don't get to the parks early or stay late to use FP. During those times it is ideal to use standby.

I would say that patterns of desirability will develop. I wouldn't want a FP during Fantasmic or a parade those are good times for standby.

Most people probably will expect FP availability during the peak hours of the day after 11:00 and before 5:00. Of course this is part of the plan by Disney is to spread those crowds out more throughout the day. I hope it doesn't work at DAK, I enjoy having the run of the place in the afternoon.
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Old 07-14-2013, 05:28 AM   #33
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We are due to arrive in September for 15 nights, we are DVC members. As we are in the UK we have purchased the UK unlimited tickets direct from Disney. When the package arrived it did not contain tickets but just had a voucher to take to the TTC and redeem for the tickets. As a result I cannot load my tickets onto MDE. Therefore we will not be able to pre- book fast passes if the scheme is up and running by then. I find this really irritating. Can anyone think of a way I could get the tickets early.

I think Disney has really dropped the ball when it come to the UK, not only can we not access MDE from PC's ( I can from iphone). I am also unable to checkin on line. And now there is the question not being able to pre-book fastpasses.

Although I am looking forward to magic bands etc but i hope that the fastpass thing is delayed past Sep.
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Old 07-14-2013, 04:06 PM   #34
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We are due to arrive in September for 15 nights, we are DVC members. As we are in the UK we have purchased the UK unlimited tickets direct from Disney. When the package arrived it did not contain tickets but just had a voucher to take to the TTC and redeem for the tickets. As a result I cannot load my tickets onto MDE. Therefore we will not be able to pre- book fast passes if the scheme is up and running by then. I find this really irritating. Can anyone think of a way I could get the tickets early.

I think Disney has really dropped the ball when it come to the UK, not only can we not access MDE from PC's ( I can from iphone). I am also unable to checkin on line. And now there is the question not being able to pre-book fastpasses.

Although I am looking forward to magic bands etc but i hope that the fastpass thing is delayed past Sep.
By Sept ... 2013 ??? If so, I wouldn't worry too much, regular fast pass will still be up and running at that point. We don't know WHEN FP+ will be fully rolled out, but certainly not by Sept ...
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Old 07-15-2013, 10:58 AM   #35
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At animal kingdom nearly all rides are walk on from 4:00 until close. I wouldn't need a FP then.

Most people don't get to the parks early or stay late to use FP. During those times it is ideal to use standby.

I would say that patterns of desirability will develop. I wouldn't want a FP during Fantasmic or a parade those are good times for standby.

Most people probably will expect FP availability during the peak hours of the day after 11:00 and before 5:00. Of course this is part of the plan by Disney is to spread those crowds out more throughout the day. I hope it doesn't work at DAK, I enjoy having the run of the place in the afternoon.
Some timeframes may naturally emerge as preferable to guests but I wouldn't necessarily view that as being less satisfying than the system we have now. Today if you chug to the back of DHS to get a Toy Story Mania FP at 10am, you have only one option available: whatever return time is currently displayed. And that ride time could be 2pm, 4pm, 7pm or all FPs could already be gone for the day.

Similarly, if a FP+ user may open their smartphone app at 8:30am while waiting for a DHS bus and find that the only TSM reservation times remaining are from 2pm onward.

That said, I also think you're giving the masses too much credit for structuring their trips around "best case" FP uses. Personally I've been to the Disney parks dozens of times. Yet when we were able to test FP+ last December, I willingly chose the 9:05 - 10:05am window for our first FP. We planned to arrive at the park around 9:30 and I really didn't see a reason to delay.

Higher mid-afternoon crowds will naturally drive up demand during certain hours, but IMO the vast majority of guests will not use slide rules and spreadsheets to weigh the most effective use of their FP selections.

Also consider that there's no reason for the number of FP+s to remain fixed throughout the day. Attraction capacity won't change, but Disney can certainly adjust the PF / Standby balance during different times of the day.
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Old 07-15-2013, 11:48 AM   #36
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Originally Posted by tjkraz View Post
Some timeframes may naturally emerge as preferable to guests but I wouldn't necessarily view that as being less satisfying than the system we have now. Today if you chug to the back of DHS to get a Toy Story Mania FP at 10am, you have only one option available: whatever return time is currently displayed. And that ride time could be 2pm, 4pm, 7pm or all FPs could already be gone for the day.

Similarly, if a FP+ user may open their smartphone app at 8:30am while waiting for a DHS bus and find that the only TSM reservation times remaining are from 2pm onward.

That said, I also think you're giving the masses too much credit for structuring their trips around "best case" FP uses. Personally I've been to the Disney parks dozens of times. Yet when we were able to test FP+ last December, I willingly chose the 9:05 - 10:05am window for our first FP. We planned to arrive at the park around 9:30 and I really didn't see a reason to delay.

Higher mid-afternoon crowds will naturally drive up demand during certain hours, but IMO the vast majority of guests will not use slide rules and spreadsheets to weigh the most effective use of their FP selections.

Also consider that there's no reason for the number of FP+s to remain fixed throughout the day. Attraction capacity won't change, but Disney can certainly adjust the PF / Standby balance during different times of the day.
I understand your points. I am working through this from my standpoint.

In December tests you were able to pre schedule and pull FP. If I couldn't pull FP, I am not sure i would waste one of my three FP+ choices on the 9-10 am window. That would be an excellent time to take advantage of short lines elsewhere in the park. I would prefer to schedule my FP during the busy times when lines are longer.

I think most people will figure this out.

I definitely don't want to schedule any FP in DAK after the parade, that would be a waste.

As for less satisfying? I didn't say that. I do think people will have to be on their toes and book early to get the best time slots. This whole thing works extremely well for TSMM and soarin. everything else is about a wash.
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Old 07-15-2013, 11:55 AM   #37
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Disney knew they were deluxe resort guests. Disney knows what the average guest spends. Disney said those guests spent more. Do you think Disney is lying in order to justify the $$$ spent on the magic bands? I guess it's possible.
Not lying.

But I have a strong suspicion they were not making apples to apples comparisons. We covered this in another thread on the topic, so I'll transplant my post here:

I would offer it could very well be a false correlation, anyway.

It may not be the tech causing them to spend more. It could very well be other factors (decreased use of the dining plans, increased appeal of merchandise, increased acceptance of electronic forms of payment in certain areas, other economic factors particular to the group who are testing, etc...even something as simple as different weather patterns during the different comparison times).

Granted, we don't have their data. But simply comparing average spending of the test group to average spending by those NOT in the test group isn't really a valid comparison (especially if not in the same "resort" category or time frame...but those couldn't be the only two group identifiers used, either).

But I'm relatively sure that's what they're doing. I doubt they're setting up a similar sized, demoed, and econ equivalent control group to make those comparisons. At least not for the purposes of his statement in this article.

1000 people, even if completely randomly selected (and it's not...it's people staying at specific resorts, with specific check in dates, and specific other factors like regular net access, on a WDW vacation package, and a way for Disney to contact them), is simply too small of a relative test group to think it's a poll-able sample size for something like this. For public opinion? Different story.

But spending habits are a little different.

What's also interesting is he says they "spent more"...but not how much more. 1%? 5%? 10%? How much is "more".
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Old 07-15-2013, 12:12 PM   #38
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Not lying.

But I have a strong suspicion they were not making apples to apples comparisons. We covered this in another thread on the topic, so I'll transplant my post here:

I would offer it could very well be a false correlation, anyway.

It may not be the tech causing them to spend more. It could very well be other factors (decreased use of the dining plans, increased appeal of merchandise, increased acceptance of electronic forms of payment in certain areas, other economic factors particular to the group who are testing, etc...even something as simple as different weather patterns during the different comparison times).

Granted, we don't have their data. But simply comparing average spending of the test group to average spending by those NOT in the test group isn't really a valid comparison (especially if not in the same "resort" category or time frame...but those couldn't be the only two group identifiers used, either).

But I'm relatively sure that's what they're doing. I doubt they're setting up a similar sized, demoed, and econ equivalent control group to make those comparisons. At least not for the purposes of his statement in this article.

1000 people, even if completely randomly selected (and it's not...it's people staying at specific resorts, with specific check in dates, and specific other factors like regular net access, on a WDW vacation package, and a way for Disney to contact them), is simply too small of a relative test group to think it's a poll-able sample size for something like this. For public opinion? Different story.

But spending habits are a little different.

What's also interesting is he says they "spent more"...but not how much more. 1%? 5%? 10%? How much is "more".
I saw something about a control group of the same size and demographic at WDW at the same time. They monitored this groups spending and compared it to the Magic Band group.
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Old 07-15-2013, 12:13 PM   #39
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I saw something about a control group of the same size and demographic at WDW at the same time. They monitored this groups spending and compared it to the Magic Band group.
Do you know where you saw that? It's not in the Bloomberg article.

I know we've discussed that would be the proper way to do it (along with econ screening)...but I have seen no mention that they did, in fact, do it that way.
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Old 07-15-2013, 12:17 PM   #40
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Do you know where you saw that? It's not in the Bloomberg article.

I know we've discussed that would be the proper way to do it (along with econ screening)...but I have seen no mention that they did, in fact, do it that way.
Not an official source, but the only place I've seen any info.

http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorized...bs-y-u-do-dis/
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Old 07-15-2013, 12:29 PM   #41
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Not an official source, but the only place I've seen any info.

http://www.easywdw.com/uncategorized...bs-y-u-do-dis/
Thanks!

1) I'm not sure they're referring to the same test. The Bloomberg article refers to a 1000 guest test...but the June test was MUCH larger than that.

2) Given the sources (not to "besmirch" the blogger), I find it a little tough to believe. Maybe, but I'm not 100% convinced, all things considered.

3) I'd still offer it's not apples to apples, given we have no idea (even demo screened and sized) if the "control group" was using more cash, other CC's, or what. About all you can say is the MB folks charged more to their room. Especially if the "control group" was retroactively identified (which it would almost had to have been).

And the correlation as to WHY one group spent more than the other still could very well be false.

Maybe the MB+ users just happened to have a larger budget for this trip.....
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Old 07-15-2013, 12:39 PM   #42
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Yes, it is available to all ticket-holding guests. In order to book FP+ prior to arrival, you will have to pre-purchase theme park tickets. The ticket will be linked to a "My Disney Experience" online account, which will then enable the FP+ reservation feature.

Annual Passholders will reportedly get a fixed number of days per year in which they can use the FP+ benefit. I think 20 days per year has been tossed around, but like all things that's certainly subject to change.

What remains unknown is whether Disney will choose to give more FPs to its hotel guests.

I don't know that they would lie...but without any quantification it's hard to draw any conclusions. Just buying a few add-on trinkets for the Magic Bands would technically represent an increase (all other things being equal.) Any fraction of a percent is an "increase", but not necessarily a sign that MB users are opening untying the purse strings.

You must have either a Magic Band or the old KTTW card to unlock room door and to obtain FastPasses. There is no mandate to use it for shopping.

Guests are not obligated to pre-reserve ride times. They will have kiosks in the parks where you can use the Band or KTTW card to obtain FP+ ride times. However, the paper FP tickets are being eliminated and the limit of three FPs per day will apply (unless Disney tweaks that policy.)
As a AP, I certainly hope this 20 days a year number isn't accurate!
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Old 07-15-2013, 12:43 PM   #43
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Thanks!

1) I'm not sure they're referring to the same test. The Bloomberg article refers to a 1000 guest test...but the June test was MUCH larger than that.

2) Given the sources (not to "besmirch" the blogger), I find it a little tough to believe. Maybe, but I'm not 100% convinced, all things considered.

3) I'd still offer it's not apples to apples, given we have no idea (even demo screened and sized) if the "control group" was using more cash, other CC's, or what. About all you can say is the MB folks charged more to their room. Especially if the "control group" was retroactively identified (which it would almost had to have been).

And the correlation as to WHY one group spent more than the other still could very well be false.

Maybe the MB+ users just happened to have a larger budget for this trip.....
Like any kind of statistic, you have to take it with a grain of salt. I've always found baseball stats to be dubious.

"Joe Smith hits more home runs during night games" Maybe he faces better pitchers during the day?
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Old 07-15-2013, 01:21 PM   #44
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Like any kind of statistic, you have to take it with a grain of salt. I've always found baseball stats to be dubious.

"Joe Smith hits more home runs during night games" Maybe he faces better pitchers during the day?
Funny, I was just having a similar discussion the other day about baseball stats.

Lots of reporters are calling from the rooftops about Miguel Cabrara and Chris Davis and their "historic first halves". T

Cabrera is the first player to hit 30+HR and have 90+ RBI "at the break".

Davis has hit 34 HR "at the break", second most all time.

What they then fail to do is provide proper context. This year, the "first half" actually comprised about 95-ish games.

Usually, it's more like 85-ish games.

Cabrera is on pace to hit about 54 HR (Jose Bautista hit the same number in 2012).

Davis is on pace to hit 60 HRs.

Both of those are impressive numbers...nothing to take away from them. But they are not as decidedly impressive as the factiods being pushed by the sports writers.

To link it all back...the stat being bandied around in the Bloomberg article, feels a lot like that. It lacks proper context. More compared to who, precisely? How much more?

Without that info...it just feels like forced PR spin leveled at investors.
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Old 07-15-2013, 01:32 PM   #45
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Funny, I was just having a similar discussion the other day about baseball stats.

Lots of reporters are calling from the rooftops about Miguel Cabrara and Chris Davis and their "historic first halves". T

Cabrera is the first player to hit 30+HR and have 90+ RBI "at the break".

Davis has hit 34 HR "at the break", second most all time.

What they then fail to do is provide proper context. This year, the "first half" actually comprised about 95-ish games.

Usually, it's more like 85-ish games.

Cabrera is on pace to hit about 54 HR (Jose Bautista hit the same number in 2012).

Davis is on pace to hit 60 HRs.

Both of those are impressive numbers...nothing to take away from them. But they are not as decidedly impressive as the factiods being pushed by the sports writers.

To link it all back...the stat being bandied around in the Bloomberg article, feels a lot like that. It lacks proper context. More compared to who, precisely? How much more?

Without that info...it just feels like forced PR spin leveled at investors.
Here's a fun little thing for you to read.

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