DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

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Old 07-06-2013, 02:08 PM   #1
Shelly888
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I cannot believe the jump in resale costs!

I haven't browsed in quite some time, clearly I missed the hike in prices. Wow! Good thing I'm not ready to buy yet! I am thinking this has been asked several times, but is the general consensus that prices will drop again in a year or two?
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Old 07-06-2013, 02:24 PM   #2
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Originally Posted by Shelly888 View Post
I haven't browsed in quite some time, clearly I missed the hike in prices. Wow! Good thing I'm not ready to buy yet! I am thinking this has been asked several times, but is the general consensus that prices will drop again in a year or two?
Many of these contracts will expire sooner than the others. If they are not sold / offered to extend before their expiration, they expire worthless.

So the answer to your question is YES. They will not always stay this expensive when they have less years left.

The question is, when?
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Old 07-06-2013, 03:22 PM   #3
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I think Disney got more aggressive with ROFR to set a new 'baseline' price for direct points, probably somewhat related to the VGF going on sale.

Eventually it should be more of a buyer's market, but if waitlists are long, ROFR will be exercised more.

Resale prices have spiked in the last 6 months though. I have noticed less out there. In January I was looking at VWL resale...now there is usually about half the listings I saw then.
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Old 07-06-2013, 06:52 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shelly888 View Post
I haven't browsed in quite some time, clearly I missed the hike in prices. Wow! Good thing I'm not ready to buy yet! I am thinking this has been asked several times, but is the general consensus that prices will drop again in a year or two?
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Originally Posted by MoreTravels View Post
Many of these contracts will expire sooner than the others. If they are not sold / offered to extend before their expiration, they expire worthless.

So the answer to your question is YES. They will not always stay this expensive when they have less years left.

The question is, when?
I think we are still a long ways away from the contract expiration date playing a significant role in pricing. The biggest factor that will influence pricing in the short term is when buyers change their mentality about what they are willing to pay. (Obviously supply plays an important role, but that is something beyond our control so talking about it is a bit moot). Typically the publicity of contracts going for less than market price has a cascading effect, leading to more and more buyers looking to push the envelope. Right now that is not a big motivator, with buyers instead focusing on passing ROFR and getting the contract they want regardless of cost. I attribute the latter position to the increase in direct prices, which has become the new basis for comparison.

I will say that this is probably the correct approach for those who are looking for something specific or looking to own within a certain time frame. I have tried using my bargain hunter methods and have had six of eight contracts taken back since February. Now the two that I did get were great deals, but it's only a good deal if you manage to get the contract, which I failed to do 75% of the time.
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Old 07-06-2013, 07:11 PM   #5
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2011 and 2012 prices were unusually low. Just like all real estate, DVCs are making a rebound due to an improving economy which is bringing more buyers into the market.

The increase in resale prices seems to have been triggered by a "free tickets" promotion for BWV direct sales along with a steep direct sale price increase that took effect on March 20. Both events generated a run on DVC points at the "Classic Resorts", with all resale prices being affected as a result.

Like most real estate, the lowest prices usually are found in the late fall and early winter.

Even today's "high" prices still don't match where they were in 2008.
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Old 07-06-2013, 08:26 PM   #6
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Actually current resale prices are still less than they were in 2006. We sold our BCV points for about $95 a point.
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Old 07-06-2013, 11:50 PM   #7
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shelly888 View Post
I haven't browsed in quite some time, clearly I missed the hike in prices. Wow! Good thing I'm not ready to buy yet! I am thinking this has been asked several times, but is the general consensus that prices will drop again in a year or two?
Prices will drop the next time the US economy tanks. Will that happen in the next year or two? I would not bet on it.
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Old 07-07-2013, 07:53 AM   #8
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Prices will drop the next time the US economy tanks. Will that happen in the next year or two? I would not bet on it.
I tend to agree with Doug, and here's why: the US economy is still in the tank. Unemployment remains at extremely high levels, as they have for the last 5 years or so. Job growth is anemic. Taking into account the number of people who have decided to give up looking for a job, the labor market participation rate is abysmal. Meanwhile, the number of people on food stamps is at an all time high. My point is, we aren't in a booming US economy right now, in fact, a pretty weak one. So while a further drop is possible, things are already not so hot. One wild card is the likely implementation of a law legalizing millions of currently illegal immigrants, which would flood the labor market. But I still think that's more likely to prolong the non-recovery rather than lead to a crash. Of course, this is all just guessing the future...

Many factors influence the resale price of DVC. The macroeconomic environment is indisputably among the most significant, but far from the only one. And who knows, maybe the people leaving the labor market are deciding to spend their time at Disney instead of looking for a job...
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Old 07-07-2013, 08:24 AM   #9
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I think it is based on your point of view. We recently survived ROFR on a 150 pt BWV contract, $75 per point. This is roughly what we paid direct for VWL in 2001. So from our perspective, this was reasonable. We realize prices for BWV were around $10 less per pt. a few mos. ago, but we weren't ready or seriously considering buying then.

I think we will continue to see prices up and down, and you have to buy when it feels right for you. Good luck as you look for what fits for you and your family
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Old 07-07-2013, 12:28 PM   #10
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Originally Posted by ELMC View Post
I will say that this is probably the correct approach for those who are looking for something specific or looking to own within a certain time frame. I have tried using my bargain hunter methods and have had six of eight contracts taken back since February. Now the two that I did get were great deals, but it's only a good deal if you manage to get the contract, which I failed to do 75% of the time.
What is your bargain hunting technique? I am interested to know.
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Old 07-07-2013, 02:18 PM   #11
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As a first time resale and DVC buyer. I lost out on 3 different contrcts within 4 days. I spoke to a guy at TSS in the AM, called back that afternono to pull the trigger, and gone. Prices have even gone up in the last couple weeks since we completed the contract by 1 or 2 dollars. However, the trade off of 150 dollars a point vs. 85 at some of the classic resorts is a significant difference.
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Old 07-07-2013, 02:37 PM   #12
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As a first time resale and DVC buyer. I lost out on 3 different contrcts within 4 days. I spoke to a guy at TSS in the AM, called back that afternono to pull the trigger, and gone. Prices have even gone up in the last couple weeks since we completed the contract by 1 or 2 dollars. However, the trade off of 150 dollars a point vs. 85 at some of the classic resorts is a significant difference.
There are far fewer contracts on the market than there once were in the past few years (especially at BWV, BCV, BLT and VWL). So you've learned the first lesson of buying resale -- have a lightning-quick trigger finger. Know what you want to pay and when you see a contract, jump immediately. Waiting even just a few minutes can cost you a deal.
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Old 07-07-2013, 06:26 PM   #13
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There are far fewer contracts on the market than there once were in the past few years (especially at BWV, BCV, BLT and VWL). So you've learned the first lesson of buying resale -- have a lightning-quick trigger finger. Know what you want to pay and when you see a contract, jump immediately. Waiting even just a few minutes can cost you a deal.
Very good advice.
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Old 07-08-2013, 09:03 AM   #14
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I just came on here to post the same thing. I'm looking for another BWV contract with feb use year.
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Old 07-08-2013, 12:35 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by bighoo93 View Post
I tend to agree with Doug, and here's why: the US economy is still in the tank. Unemployment remains at extremely high levels, as they have for the last 5 years or so. Job growth is anemic. Taking into account the number of people who have decided to give up looking for a job, the labor market participation rate is abysmal. Meanwhile, the number of people on food stamps is at an all time high. My point is, we aren't in a booming US economy right now, in fact, a pretty weak one. So while a further drop is possible, things are already not so hot. One wild card is the likely implementation of a law legalizing millions of currently illegal immigrants, which would flood the labor market. But I still think that's more likely to prolong the non-recovery rather than lead to a crash. Of course, this is all just guessing the future...

Many factors influence the resale price of DVC. The macroeconomic environment is indisputably among the most significant, but far from the only one. And who knows, maybe the people leaving the labor market are deciding to spend their time at Disney instead of looking for a job...
I think, more than economic outlook, is the difference in economic picture now versus 4-5 years ago at any given point in time. The last few years have seen the people who bought in at the end of the RE bubble flooding the market with contracts that they can't afford. The people selling now most likely didn't buy in during the 06-07 timeframe. They probably bought after the collapse, and as such most likely aren't selling because they HAVE to. It looks like the "weak hands" have all sold (more or less), and now the contracts on the market are by and large discretionary sales rather than distressed ones. So there are less of them, and the ones out there aren't as motivated. Couple that with buyers who made it through the collapse ok and now have some cash that they can't find a good investment for, and prices start going up.
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