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Old 06-19-2013, 11:57 PM   #1
dmunsil
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Graphs of point values BLT and SSR

(Note: there was a first version of this post with bad data for BLT studios in the Oct-Nov time frame. It has since been corrected.)

This is part 27 of a gazillion-part series entitled "Don Munsil: Obsessive or Crazy?"

Lots of people have noticed that the peak and value seasons for DVC and cash rooms are sort of roughly aligned but not exactly, with some surprising overlaps, including a few days a year where it's near-highest for cash and near-lowest for DVC points. It's not completely obvious, but the ratios between lowest and highest price are also different between cash and points, and these numbers vary somewhat between resorts. And, of course, certain rooms are better values in points (Studios) and some are worse (1 Bedrooms).

So I built a spreadsheet that consumes the point charts for a resort and the cash rack rates and generates a point and cash price for all 365 days of the year. Because there is a weekday/weekend distinction for points and no similar distinction for cash rates (at least for DVC rooms), I averaged a whole week of points and cash to get each data point. So the price given is the average cash value per point for a one-week stay.

Even I, math nut that I am, was unwilling to do all the resorts, so I picked two at roughly opposite ends of the price (and desirability) spectrum: Bay Lake Tower and Saratoga Springs. For BLT, I used Theme Park View rooms.

An obvious thing to do would be to factor in some kind of discount from rack rate, but if you look at MouseSavers historical discounts page, you can get a feel for what discounts were available at different times and mentally adjust the graph. The tricky part of factoring in room discounts is that the discounts aren't always available, they aren't available for all rooms when they are available, and they vary from resort to resort. But I'll maybe try. Later.

Some things to note:

- The graphs are pretty similar, but not exactly the same. The peaks and troughs are slightly deeper in some cases and not as deep in others. For example, the graph for studios between mid-October to mid-November is pretty different for BLT and SSR.
- Grand Villas are more expensive per point than 2-bedrooms in most of fall and winter, and cheaper per point than 2-bedrooms in spring and summer.
- 1-bedrooms at BLT are under $14/point for a large chunk of the year, and dip down to $12 for a few periods. Before you rent points for a 1 bedroom, check the rack rates.

I also wanted to share the average price per point for each room type, for those who just want a single number. These were calculated by adding up all 365 nights for each room and dividing total cash value by total point cost.

BLT (Theme Park View):
- Studio: $22.90
- 1 Bedroom: $14.12
- 2 Bedroom: $16.44
- Grand Villa: $16.26

SSR:
- Studio: $23.15
- 1 Bedroom: $15.70
- 2 Bedroom: $17.64
- Grand Villa: $17.31

I'm sure people will notice other things. I present the graphs for your amusement. Enjoy.




Last edited by dmunsil; 06-20-2013 at 02:33 AM. Reason: Error in data for BLT
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Old 06-20-2013, 09:22 AM   #2
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This is a great idea! Thanks for sharing. It's nice to have a visual representation of when my points are giving me the most value.
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Old 06-20-2013, 10:06 AM   #3
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Originally Posted by ImagineerTHAT View Post
This is a great idea! Thanks for sharing. It's nice to have a visual representation of when my points are giving me the most value.
True, but I still want to go when I want to go, LOL. (And where, too).

Thanks for the charts, Don.
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Old 06-20-2013, 04:12 PM   #4
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you are comparing a theme park view to a plain room

sorry - if you want to compare - compare a lake view - really it should be a standard view

also there is a weekday and weekend cash price
http://www.mousesavers.com/2013-walt...-season-dates/

plus don't want to be upsetting - but since the cash price is the same for OKW and SSR - but the point cost is lower for OKW.

this is not fair to SSR owners and has never been since day one.

blt standard view is a bargin for me.
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Old 06-20-2013, 11:36 PM   #5
dmunsil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CarolMN
Thanks for the charts, Don
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImagineerTHAT
Thanks for sharing.
You're very welcome!

Quote:
Originally Posted by spiceycat View Post
you are comparing a theme park view to a plain room
Yup. As I said, I wanted to pick an inexpensive option and an expensive option. Perhaps that wasn't clear.

Quote:
also there is a weekday and weekend cash price
http://www.mousesavers.com/2013-walt...-season-dates/
That's where I got the rates! That's my sister's web site, so I know it pretty well. There actually aren't weekend and weekday cash prices for DVC rooms; only regular hotel room prices and DVC point prices. Why? Heaven knows. Maybe because it's confusing to do this comparison?

I really wasn't trying to show that BLT is or isn't a good deal, or really anything in particular. I was more interested in the fact that the various graphs are different, and there were some surprising spikes and valleys, and I thought it might be interesting to other people. Besides the three of you, not so much, I guess?

As far as actual usefulness of the graphs, I think only renters might get some value out of it, as far as knowing when they should check the cash rates before renting points. Though for those folks, I should probably have posted the single-day graph. It's pretty jagged, because it goes up every weekday and down every weekend. A big tip for point renters: if you just want to stay on a Friday and Saturday in a 1-bedroom, you probably don't even need to check. It's probably cheaper in cash.

If anyone wants that single-day graph, just ask. No, go ahead! Hello? Is this thing on?

Last edited by dmunsil; 06-20-2013 at 11:41 PM.
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