DVC RESALES
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Old 06-07-2013, 12:55 AM   #1
dmunsil
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BLT resale prices May 2013

I didn't think there was much point in gathering purchase prices. Everyone bought in 2010-2012 at 130+; they all lost money.

Though these were all recorded in May 2013, I sorted them by the date on the deed, which will be closer to the date they passed ROFR. As you can see, a few of these took up to a month for the closing to happen. You could expect that these prices were probably actually agreed on about 3-4 weeks prior to the date on the deed, since the waiver of ROFR takes about that long.

Code:
Sold:
Date    Points  UY      Sale PPP
30-Mar  110     Sep      $87.27 
15-Apr  75      Oct      $98.67 
19-Apr  50      Sep     $102.00 
22-Apr  200     Feb      $90.00 
24-Apr  200     Feb      $91.00 
29-Apr  202     Feb      $93.07 
29-Apr  160     Sep      $95.00 
29-Apr  210     Aug      $96.19 
30-Apr  160     Dec      $90.00 
1-May   150     Feb      $88.00 
1-May   210     Sep      $92.38 
1-May   150     Jun      $93.33 
2-May   160     Feb      $96.25 
2-May   160     Feb      $85.00 
3-May   200     Feb      $92.00 
3-May   100     Apr      $95.00 
6-May   120     Mar      $91.67 
7-May   160     Feb      $95.00 
8-May   225     Jun      $95.11 
9-May   100     Sep      $93.00 
9-May   160     Mar      $92.50 
10-May  220     Feb      $89.09 
10-May  240     Feb      $95.00 
10-May  200     Feb      $85.00 
13-May  75      Sep     $104.00 
14-May  200     Oct      $96.00 
16-May  250     Oct      $95.20 
16-May  160     Feb      $87.50 
16-May  210     Aug      $89.05 
17-May  180     Feb      $91.11 
17-May  50      Feb     $108.00 
20-May  400     Dec      $99.00 
21-May  200     Feb      $93.00 
21-May  100     Feb      $88.00 
22-May  160              $92.50 
                          
ROFR:                          
11-Apr  200     Jun      $88.00  
20-Apr  160     Sep      $95.00 
24-Apr  210     Apr      $90.00 
6-May   150     Mar      $80.00
Once again I note that all the ROFR action was on contracts of 150 points or more. I wouldn't count on that, but it does seem so far pretty consistent.

Median price for sold contracts was $93. Median price for ROFRed contracts was $89.
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Old 06-07-2013, 01:20 AM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmunsil View Post
Once again I note that all the ROFR action was on contracts of 150 points or more. I wouldn't count on that, but it does seem so far pretty consistent.
So what is the proper conclusion to draw? Do we say that Disney doesn't like to ROFR smaller contracts, and this is supported by the fact that small contracts are rarely, if ever taken? Or is ROFR based on price and smaller contracts tend to sell for higher prices, which is what makes them more immune to being taken by ROFR? Both are logical, but who's to say? It's like a DVC chicken and the egg.
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Old 06-07-2013, 02:00 AM   #3
dmunsil
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Originally Posted by ELMC View Post
So what is the proper conclusion to draw? Do we say that Disney doesn't like to ROFR smaller contracts, and this is supported by the fact that small contracts are rarely, if ever taken? Or is ROFR based on price and smaller contracts tend to sell for higher prices, which is what makes them more immune to being taken by ROFR? Both are logical, but who's to say? It's like a DVC chicken and the egg.
It seems to me that 100-point contracts tend to sell for about the same as larger contracts. It's the 75 and smaller that tend to get bid up. Yet I haven't seen a ROFR of a 100 point contract. There aren't that many, so you're right: who knows?

I was talking to my son about this the other day and we joked about Disney having a big chart and a 20-sided die like you'd use in D&D, and they look up the "ROFR number" on the chart based on size and price, and then roll the die to see if they take the contract. It wouldn't be a terrible way to go, really.
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Old 06-07-2013, 09:05 AM   #4
nkosiek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmunsil View Post
I didn't think there was much point in gathering purchase prices. Everyone bought in 2010-2012 at 130+; they all lost money.

Though these were all recorded in May 2013, I sorted them by the date on the deed, which will be closer to the date they passed ROFR. As you can see, a few of these took up to a month for the closing to happen. You could expect that these prices were probably actually agreed on about 3-4 weeks prior to the date on the deed, since the waiver of ROFR takes about that long.

Code:
Sold:
Date    Points  UY      Sale PPP
30-Mar  110     Sep      $87.27 
15-Apr  75      Oct      $98.67 
19-Apr  50      Sep     $102.00 
22-Apr  200     Feb      $90.00 
24-Apr  200     Feb      $91.00 
29-Apr  202     Feb      $93.07 
29-Apr  160     Sep      $95.00 
29-Apr  210     Aug      $96.19 
30-Apr  160     Dec      $90.00 
1-May   150     Feb      $88.00 
1-May   210     Sep      $92.38 
1-May   150     Jun      $93.33 
2-May   160     Feb      $96.25 
2-May   160     Feb      $85.00 
3-May   200     Feb      $92.00 
3-May   100     Apr      $95.00 
6-May   120     Mar      $91.67 
7-May   160     Feb      $95.00 
8-May   225     Jun      $95.11 
9-May   100     Sep      $93.00 
9-May   160     Mar      $92.50 
10-May  220     Feb      $89.09 
10-May  240     Feb      $95.00 
10-May  200     Feb      $85.00 
13-May  75      Sep     $104.00 
14-May  200     Oct      $96.00 
16-May  250     Oct      $95.20 
16-May  160     Feb      $87.50 
16-May  210     Aug      $89.05 
17-May  180     Feb      $91.11 
17-May  50      Feb     $108.00 
20-May  400     Dec      $99.00 
21-May  200     Feb      $93.00 
21-May  100     Feb      $88.00 
22-May  160              $92.50 
                          
ROFR:                          
11-Apr  200     Jun      $88.00  
20-Apr  160     Sep      $95.00 
24-Apr  210     Apr      $90.00 
6-May   150     Mar      $80.00
Once again I note that all the ROFR action was on contracts of 150 points or more. I wouldn't count on that, but it does seem so far pretty consistent.

Median price for sold contracts was $93. Median price for ROFRed contracts was $89.
Ours was filed with OCC sometime last week before the end of the month, but t wasn't as early as the 22nd...at least I don't think so and we paid $92 even, not $92.50. It was 160, June UY. I can find it online but it doesn't appear here. Weird.
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Old 06-07-2013, 09:19 AM   #5
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Thanks for pulling this together for BLT! I was tempted to do it myself after your BWV analysis.

Also, your NPV thread gave my husband a good laugh! The first thing he said after I read him a few sentences was "He must be an actuary."
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Old 06-07-2013, 09:24 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmunsil

It seems to me that 100-point contracts tend to sell for about the same as larger contracts. It's the 75 and smaller that tend to get bid up. Yet I haven't seen a ROFR of a 100 point contract. There aren't that many, so you're right: who knows?

I was talking to my son about this the other day and we joked about Disney having a big chart and a 20-sided die like you'd use in D&D, and they look up the "ROFR number" on the chart based on size and price, and then roll the die to see if they take the contract. It wouldn't be a terrible way to go, really.
Heh. I've had two 100 point contracts taken in the past 12 months. But both were priced well below market value. So that might tell you something.
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Old 06-07-2013, 09:49 AM   #7
dmunsil
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nkosiek View Post
Ours was filed with OCC sometime last week before the end of the month, but t wasn't as early as the 22nd...at least I don't think so and we paid $92 even, not $92.50. It was 160, June UY. I can find it online but it doesn't appear here. Weird.
What's the date on the deed itself, in the text of the first paragraph? That's the date I'm using in the table. It doesn't match the filing date - it's between two days and one month earlier, probably depending on how slow the sellers are in getting everything signed and sent in.

Also, the numbers I'm using are from the deed doc tax, which is $0.70 per $100 of sale price. So if something is in the range $101-200, the deed doc tax is $1.40, and my spreadsheet says the selling price was $200. So the prices I'm using are up to $99 higher than the actual selling price, which make the per-point price off by a fraction of a dollar.

I considered using the listed price for deeds that list a price, and using the deed doc tax for the deeds that don't, but ultimately decided it was much harder, and I'd rather be consistent. Overall, the average amount the price is off is $50, and the average size contract is 150 points, so the average amount the price per point is off by is $0.33.

Last edited by dmunsil; 06-07-2013 at 12:32 PM.
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Old 06-07-2013, 12:36 PM   #8
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So according to this it looks like my offer of $100 PP for 150 points should go through? I am getting 300 banked points now plus another 150 in Feb, which is why I paid a little more.

Also, thanks for the info! This is exactly what I was looking for.
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Old 06-07-2013, 01:02 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmunsil View Post
What's the date on the deed itself, in the text of the first paragraph? That's the date I'm using in the table. It doesn't match the filing date - it's between two days and one month earlier, probably depending on how slow the sellers are in getting everything signed and sent in.

Also, the numbers I'm using are from the deed doc tax, which is $0.70 per $100 of sale price. So if something is in the range $101-200, the deed doc tax is $1.40, and my spreadsheet says the selling price was $200. So the prices I'm using are up to $99 higher than the actual selling price, which make the per-point price off by a fraction of a dollar.

I considered using the listed price for deeds that list a price, and using the deed doc tax for the deeds that don't, but ultimately decided it was much harder, and I'd rather be consistent. Overall, the average amount the price is off is $50, and the average size contract is 150 points, so the average amount the price per point is off by is $0.33.

We are indeed the last one you've got on there. It's a June UY. Forgot that it goes by the date on the seller's paperwork. Awesome! Now if only Disney would get my points loaded.
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Old 06-07-2013, 01:21 PM   #10
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Our's is on the list!
Glad we didn't overpay this time around.
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Old 06-07-2013, 02:06 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dmunsil View Post
Code:
ROFR:                          
11-Apr  200     Jun      $88.00  
20-Apr  160     Sep      $95.00 
24-Apr  210     Apr      $90.00 
6-May   150     Mar      $80.00
Man, did these 4 take a beating. They were all originally purchased for $120/point. The 210 was bought in late 2009 and the others were bought in 2010. Don't recall what the incentives were back then, but still, not pretty.
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Old 06-07-2013, 02:43 PM   #12
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Originally Posted by ImagineerTHAT View Post
So according to this it looks like my offer of $100 PP for 150 points should go through? I am getting 300 banked points now plus another 150 in Feb, which is why I paid a little more.

Also, thanks for the info! This is exactly what I was looking for.
The sample size for this thread is WAY too small to garner any real conclusions. Good luck with ROFR (and even if Disney takes the contract, you'll always find another!)
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Old 06-07-2013, 06:32 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by Missyrose View Post
The sample size for this thread is WAY too small to garner any real conclusions. Good luck with ROFR (and even if Disney takes the contract, you'll always find another!)
Thanks! Not the end of the world if they take it...lots of good deals.
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Old 06-07-2013, 06:44 PM   #14
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Our's is on the list!
Glad we didn't overpay this time around.
Just remember, only one person can get the best deal. Everyone else overpaid. It's ok, as long as you're happy with what you bought.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iluvthsgam View Post
Man, did these 4 take a beating. They were all originally purchased for $120/point. The 210 was bought in late 2009 and the others were bought in 2010. Don't recall what the incentives were back then, but still, not pretty.
And THIS is what I'm talking about when I talk about the risks of buying direct (and financing). They are very real, and they do happen. My guess is that these sellers did not make an informed decision about their purchase and ended up selling at a loss. If you make an informed choice to buy direct at high prices and/or finance, you are in a better position to prevent this from happening to you as well.
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Old 06-07-2013, 08:06 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by ELMC View Post
Just remember, only one person can get the best deal. Everyone else overpaid. It's ok, as long as you're happy with what you bought.

...

Based on the prices last year we overpaid for sure
But we got it at 90, so I'm quite content.
Wish we added on earlier tho.
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