DVC RESALES
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Old 06-06-2013, 06:05 PM   #31
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Originally Posted by NoleFan View Post
If Disney increases the price of old resorts again (have heard nothing of such happening), I would not be surprised if the resale price of old resorts keep edging closer to $100/pp at least on the smaller contracts.
How often does Disney increase the prices of the older resorts?
I wouldn't bet on the resale prices continuing to rise along with direct prices. The Webcast frenzy was really the first time in years that resale prices rose. And that rise in price has plenty to do with a lack of supply on the market.
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Old 06-06-2013, 06:13 PM   #32
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I wouldn't bet on the resale prices continuing to rise along with direct prices. The Webcast frenzy was really the first time in years that resale prices rose. And that rise in price has plenty to do with a lack of supply on the market.
Great insight- thanks. It's good for us rookies to hear about what has happend historically.

In previous years, what was the average gap between resale & direct ?
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Old 06-06-2013, 06:44 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by NoleFan View Post
Great insight- thanks. It's good for us rookies to hear about what has happend historically.

In previous years, what was the average gap between resale & direct ?
The recession had put a glut of contracts on the market with lots of sellers that desperately needed to sell, which set the market fairly low. Those low prices stayed for a few years, right up until about six months ago.

Direct prices for classic resorts were in the $90s up to $102 per point during that span. Just for example, many people bought BWV contracts in the last couple of years from the high $40s through the low $60s.

It's funny, people used to choose BWV over BCV because it was the same location but BWV was cheaper points. Then the number of BWV contracts dried up completely and prices skyrocketed.

Now, do I think having the direct prices increased makes it easier for people to justify paying higher resale prices? Absolutely. Do I think the increase in direct prices caused the massive inflation of resale prices? Nope. The lack of inventory did.

Look at AKV, those resale prices continue to tumble because there are lots of contracts for sale. Those prices are falling despite Disney upping the direct price to $145 per point.
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Old 06-06-2013, 07:05 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by Missyrose View Post
The recession had put a glut of contracts on the market with lots of sellers that desperately needed to sell, which set the market fairly low. Those low prices stayed for a few years, right up until about six months ago.

Direct prices for classic resorts were in the $90s up to $102 per point during that span. Just for example, many people bought BWV contracts in the last couple of years from the high $40s through the low $60s.

It's funny, people used to choose BWV over BCV because it was the same location but BWV was cheaper points. Then the number of BWV contracts dried up completely and prices skyrocketed.

Now, do I think having the direct prices increased makes it easier for people to justify paying higher resale prices? Absolutely. Do I think the increase in direct prices caused the massive inflation of resale prices? Nope. The lack of inventory did.

Look at AKV, those resale prices continue to tumble because there are lots of contracts for sale. Those prices are falling despite Disney upping the direct price to $145 per point.
Hard to believe contracts in the $40's. I believe you but looking at today's prices, it's hard to imagine or dreamy to imagine buying in @ the "old" prices. Talk about a change of tide!! I agree with supply or lack there of driving up prices. Increase ROFR so less inventory, better economy so more buyers & less people in a need to sell position. Wonder when & @ what price it will stabilize?
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Old 06-06-2013, 07:56 PM   #35
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Hard to believe contracts in the $40's. I believe you but looking at today's prices, it's hard to imagine or dreamy to imagine buying in @ the "old" prices. Talk about a change of tide!! I agree with supply or lack there of driving up prices. Increase ROFR so less inventory, better economy so more buyers & less people in a need to sell position. Wonder when & @ what price it will stabilize?
When I was buying my first contract in early 2012 (after reading and tracking things for a couple of years), Sharon from Fidelity had a standing offer from another client for $45 for all BWV contracts, so I started by bidding at $46. I do know someone from the "other" message boards who bought BWV in late 2011 for $44.25 a point. Still envious of that deal.
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Old 06-06-2013, 08:22 PM   #36
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So do you think I could get $100/pt for my August 50 point BWV contract that has all 50 2013 points available?

I am not planning to sell, but if the prices keep rising like this..........
Maybe not, but I think if you stripped it by renting the points you could sell it for $90!
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Old 06-06-2013, 08:37 PM   #37
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When I was buying my first contract in early 2012 (after reading and tracking things for a couple of years), Sharon from Fidelity had a standing offer from another client for $45 for all BWV contracts, so I started by bidding at $46. I do know someone from the "other" message boards who bought BWV in late 2011 for $44.25 a point. Still envious of that deal.
Timing is everything- I am jealous!!
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Old 06-06-2013, 08:42 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by Missyrose View Post

Now, do I think having the direct prices increased makes it easier for people to justify paying higher resale prices? Absolutely. Do I think the increase in direct prices caused the massive inflation of resale prices? Nope. The lack of inventory did.

Look at AKV, those resale prices continue to tumble because there are lots of contracts for sale. Those prices are falling despite Disney upping the direct price to $145 per point.
I agree with this completely. Prices for BWV had been ticking up slowly for the past year due to the dwindling supply of contracts. Disney's ROFR activity introduced a new source of demand that combined with buyer interest to completely decimate the BWV inventory. At one time there were less than five total BWV contracts for sale among several brokers. It only takes one savvy seller to see that and list their contract at a "ridiculous" price and voila, you have the new market price.

I would also suggest that ROFR activity had people adding dollars onto their offers as added "insurance" to pass ROFR. Once those higher sales prices hit the books, they became the benchmark for future sales, with sellers trying to get a dollar or two more due to the fact that this is a seller's market. This price creep led to the prices we have today. The raising of direct prices helped some resale buyers justify offering more for a contract because they view their savings in relation to the direct price, as opposed to trying to get the best price they possibly can. So at best I would say that the direct prices have a minor, indirect effect on resale prices. Resale market prices are largely determined by the economic factors at play within that specific marketplace.
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Old 06-06-2013, 08:46 PM   #39
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Hard to believe contracts in the $40's. I believe you but looking at today's prices, it's hard to imagine or dreamy to imagine buying in @ the "old" prices. Talk about a change of tide!! I agree with supply or lack there of driving up prices. Increase ROFR so less inventory, better economy so more buyers & less people in a need to sell position. Wonder when & @ what price it will stabilize?
If by "stabilize" you mean stay fixed, then never. The resale market is fluid and subject to a number of economic and emotional factors. I would suggest that prices are extremely stable in that the fluctuations are within a fixed range and they happen incrementally and over time, as opposed to sporadically and with no explanation or trend. Eventually prices will hit a ceiling (which cannot be predicted really) and will ebb and flow from there. But I wouldn't expect to get anything close to the deals of 2012 for some time, sorry to say.
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Old 06-06-2013, 09:29 PM   #40
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I don't post the details as some of the contract can sometimes become subject to intense scrutiny. I paid what I felt comfortable with on contracts that fit my needs. BWV & BCV both under 100 points paying in the $60's for 1 & $80's for other.
I am not sure what you mean by this statement? I always thought the ROFR thread was a great tool for buyers and for information in general but the longer I am on these boards I realize many who contribute information to the boards do not disclose their resale activity why is that? Just wondering that is all. btw I think paying what a person is comfortable with and what works for them and their family is all that matters.
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Old 06-06-2013, 09:38 PM   #41
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So do you think I could get $100/pt for my August 50 point BWV contract that has all 50 2013 points available?

I am not planning to sell, but if the prices keep rising like this..........
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Anything is possible. It just takes one person that really wants to own at BWV and it's still a savings over direct. Would probably have a high chance of passing ROFR
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The recession had put a glut of contracts on the market with lots of sellers that desperately needed to sell, which set the market fairly low. Those low prices stayed for a few years, right up until about six months ago.

----snip----

Look at AKV, those resale prices continue to tumble because there are lots of contracts for sale. Those prices are falling despite Disney upping the direct price to $145 per point.
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Maybe not, but I think if you stripped it by renting the points you could sell it for $90!
Honestly, I think a 50 pt BWV (or BCV) with current UY points could be listed for around $100. There are obviously plenty of people who are interested in location, and spending a little extra is not a problem for those buyers. It's only a $500 difference between $90 and $100 per point for your 50 pointer. As ELMC pointed out, you could strip it and sell it for $90, or keep it the way it is and perhaps sell for $100.

At this point, I think that small contracts (<100 pts) at most resorts could sell for a premium. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised if a 50 point AKV with current UY points would sell for around $90 in the current market. Those small add-ons are a hot commodity. But those 160 plus-ers at AKV will still be listing in the $70-80's. AKV's weakness is the relative glut of available resale contracts. Although, the board sponsor has had a relatively empty AKV cupboard for the past few weeks. I do think that the days of AKV contracts being listed in the $60's are over, for now. Not that they can't be had in the $60's, but sellers are probably going to list higher given the recent resale trends.
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Old 06-06-2013, 09:39 PM   #42
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If by "stabilize" you mean stay fixed, then never. The resale market is fluid and subject to a number of economic and emotional factors. I would suggest that prices are extremely stable in that the fluctuations are within a fixed range and they happen incrementally and over time, as opposed to sporadically and with no explanation or trend. Eventually prices will hit a ceiling (which cannot be predicted really) and will ebb and flow from there. But I wouldn't expect to get anything close to the deals of 2012 for some time, sorry to say.
Right now, prices continue to rise so I would not term them as stabilized. What I mean by stabilize is remain in some sort of range instead of continual increase or decrease.
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Old 06-06-2013, 09:42 PM   #43
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I do think that the days of AKV contracts being listed in the $60's are over, for now. Not that they can't be had in the $60's, but sellers are probably going to list higher given the recent resale trends.
And given the number of AKV owners with a loan balance, unfortunately for them.
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Old 06-06-2013, 09:46 PM   #44
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I am not sure what you mean by this statement? I always thought the ROFR thread was a great tool for buyers and for information in general but the longer I am on these boards I realize many who contribute information to the boards do not disclose their resale activity why is that? Just wondering that is all. btw I think paying what a person is comfortable with and what works for them and their family is all that matters.
I think the ROFR thread is an excellent resource- am grateful to those who choose to contribute & those who compile the info. I have looked at it on more than 1 occasion. If you buy a contract where there is a waitlist (resort, UY), pay under/more than market, etc. it can lead to open discussion. Prefer to leave that door closed and instead talk about having fun using my points. Just a personal preference.
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Old 06-06-2013, 09:51 PM   #45
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And given the number of AKV owners with a loan balance, unfortunately for them.
Herein lies the wisdom of breaking a large contract into small parts. I wish I had know about that with our initial 268 point direct contract. I even tried to convince a friend to break up his 350 point BLT for potential future resale value when he was purchasing, but he did not feel a need to consider it. At that point in time, it would not have even cost him anything. The small increase in closing costs for breaking up a direct purchase contract of greater than 100 points is money well spent.
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