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Old 05-31-2013, 10:59 AM   #31
tjkraz

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Originally Posted by lovin'fl View Post
It's a F&W weekend, that may help.
Sure but you're competing with many other DVC owners renting points who can offer infinite flexibility.

If you held onto the room until just 3-4 months out when other VGF studios are long filled, you could get a nibble. But I think it's far more likely that potential renters will want more nights / different nights, larger villa, different resort, cheaper resort, etc.
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Old 05-31-2013, 12:49 PM   #32
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Originally Posted by tjkraz View Post
Sure but you're competing with many other DVC owners renting points who can offer infinite flexibility.

If you held onto the room until just 3-4 months out when other VGF studios are long filled, you could get a nibble. But I think it's far more likely that potential renters will want more nights / different nights, larger villa, different resort, cheaper resort, etc.
Yeah...I think we'll just keep watching for a small add on at BCV for 3-4 nights at F&W each year (that's where we really want to be anyway).
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Old 05-31-2013, 06:22 PM   #33
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Originally Posted by Dean View Post
IMO the potential losses are that if you only use (or rent) the fixed week you are paying more yearly in dues as well as the up front premium. I suspect you're giving up the right to have smaller contracts (though I haven't checked this out) and you're limited to buying the number of points that match. For some that could be a great option, for others it'd simply be 10% higher costs.
After seeing the points charts I see that much of the basis of my question was incorrect as it was coming from the poster that seemed to say they had purchased a week 52 for 139 points and that the fixed weeks were discounted. I must have misunderstood what week they purchased.

So it seemed obvious in my head from that info to at least purchase a week 52 or some other discounted week if it was ever possible you might use it since you can cancel the week without any penalty at all. But I'm still surprised at the pricing and lack of "penalty" - ie you get points one for one if you cancel the week - so it still might make the most sense for a particular buyer who often visits in a popular week even if they thought they'd only go that specific week every 3-6 years and would cancel it for other times or resorts in other years. Or even more so for a new buyer with contract minimums although that brings up another question of what DVC will require from a new buyer if they want to purchase a week in a studio that would be 139 points but the minimum is 160? One of the lessons learned from the 2 years of point reallocations, and in a small part to the point change made at BLT prior to opening, a cushion can be a good thing and in the meantime they could work the fixed week nicely by using it in high cost years and cancelling and booking with points in other years when they want to go at other times. As I understand it Aulani's fixed week have what sounds like a true 10% upcharge and you don't have the 10% extra points to use when you cancel a week. The VGF only has a premium price if, as you mentioned, a person only ever used it for the week the purchased.

Overall it seems like DVC is missing an opportunity to maximize profits with this pricing model on the fixed weeks and by taking up to 35% of the rooms out of the pool at the most popular times (as I assume those are the ones that will sell the fixed weeks) the remainder of the VGF purchasers are losing as well with less availability.

I did see one post of a person that split a contract and still received the fixed week so that may not be given up - or may have happened by mistake.

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Originally Posted by ELMC View Post
.......and that there are people who will definitely be able to take advantage of and even exploit this option. But I think that will be the exception to the fixed week option and not the rule.
Yes, it probably would be minimal but the savvy buyer could make it work out very well. And there were enough of those over the years who figured out how to maximize their purchase with Sun-Thur stays but it is a fixed number of weeks this would probably work with so probably not much if any impact. And I'd guess that some who buy are going to be just as apt to let the unit sit empty during years they can't make it.

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Originally Posted by tjkraz View Post
(I supposed you could manipulate opt-out years to reap some added benefit--only opting-out when annual costs for the Fixed Week are low.)
This is along the line I was thinking although less so than when I thought week 52 (and perhaps others) were actually discounted at 139 points.
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Old 05-31-2013, 07:01 PM   #34
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I think what we're overlooking here is the effect that the cancellation policy will have on availability. If a fixed week owner is required to cancel prior to the 31 day mark, that releases inventory at the time of cancellation. Will it be turned over to CRO or will it be available for DVC members to book using points? If the latter, then there may be a new paradigm of booking at VGF that includes the key dates of 11 months, 7 months and also 31 days.
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Old 05-31-2013, 07:14 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by KAT4DISNEY View Post
Overall it seems like DVC is missing an opportunity to maximize profits with this pricing model on the fixed weeks and by taking up to 35% of the rooms out of the pool at the most popular times (as I assume those are the ones that will sell the fixed weeks) the remainder of the VGF purchasers are losing as well with less availability.
It's all relative, though. Lower availability but fewer owners with the ability to reserve. Unless they opt-out, of course.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ELMC View Post
I think what we're overlooking here is the effect that the cancellation policy will have on availability. If a fixed week owner is required to cancel prior to the 31 day mark, that releases inventory at the time of cancellation. Will it be turned over to CRO or will it be available for DVC members to book using points? If the latter, then there may be a new paradigm of booking at VGF that includes the key dates of 11 months, 7 months and also 31 days.
The room will be available for points reservations. The Guaranteed Week owner is being given points to spend on other accommodations within the system. As such, their previously-reserved GW villa must be returned to the system and made available for reservations.

As for the timelines, we'll have to wait and see how it plays out. Owners cannot bank the points or use them for another reservation until they have opted-out. Some may wait until the last minute to cancel. I think more will be either making adjustments at 11 months (tweaking dates) or attempting to book elsewhere 7 months prior to some preferred travel date.
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Old 05-31-2013, 07:25 PM   #36
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Originally Posted by icouldlivethere View Post
I was just looking at the fixed week points chart and wondering why on earth are weeks 15 & 16 so much more expensive than the other weeks during magic season. With Easter being at a different time each year and spring breaks being at different times each year, why did they pick on those 2 weeks.
It's because of the fact that the dates that might fall outside the premier dates are Magic season for weeks 15 & 16 where for Xmas and NY's they are Dream or Adventure season plus the 10% increase.

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Originally Posted by lovin'fl View Post
A question that I have is: if we bought week 39 studio lake view and wanted to go for 3 or 4 nights of the 7, could we rent the other 3-4 nights to someone? How would they make that reservation? If I rented out thur, fri and sat nights (69 points at $13pp), it would cover that year's MF.
You could cancel and rebook as 2 separate reservations but you might lose part or all of the reservation. You could simply trade off during the week privately but that creates issues with CC and DP usage.
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Old 05-31-2013, 07:29 PM   #37
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Originally Posted by KAT4DISNEY View Post
After seeing the points charts I see that much of the basis of my question was incorrect as it was coming from the poster that seemed to say they had purchased a week 52 for 139 points and that the fixed weeks were discounted. I must have misunderstood what week they purchased.

So it seemed obvious in my head from that info to at least purchase a week 52 or some other discounted week if it was ever possible you might use it since you can cancel the week without any penalty at all. But I'm still surprised at the pricing and lack of "penalty" - ie you get points one for one if you cancel the week - so it still might make the most sense for a particular buyer who often visits in a popular week even if they thought they'd only go that specific week every 3-6 years and would cancel it for other times or resorts in other years. Or even more so for a new buyer with contract minimums although that brings up another question of what DVC will require from a new buyer if they want to purchase a week in a studio that would be 139 points but the minimum is 160? One of the lessons learned from the 2 years of point reallocations, and in a small part to the point change made at BLT prior to opening, a cushion can be a good thing and in the meantime they could work the fixed week nicely by using it in high cost years and cancelling and booking with points in other years when they want to go at other times. As I understand it Aulani's fixed week have what sounds like a true 10% upcharge and you don't have the 10% extra points to use when you cancel a week. The VGF only has a premium price if, as you mentioned, a person only ever used it for the week the purchased.

Overall it seems like DVC is missing an opportunity to maximize profits with this pricing model on the fixed weeks and by taking up to 35% of the rooms out of the pool at the most popular times (as I assume those are the ones that will sell the fixed weeks) the remainder of the VGF purchasers are losing as well with less availability.
Marriott prices those type of weeks independently and generally give you 10-20% less points if you convert over and give up your week. I do agree that DVC may have missed some opportunities to maximize profits. The truth is that had it been Marriott they'd have sold the entire week as fixed weeks and the only weeks that the other owners would have potential access to would be if the owner elected points instead of their fixed week.
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Old 05-31-2013, 09:17 PM   #38
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Originally Posted by ELMC View Post
I think what we're overlooking here is the effect that the cancellation policy will have on availability. If a fixed week owner is required to cancel prior to the 31 day mark, that releases inventory at the time of cancellation. Will it be turned over to CRO or will it be available for DVC members to book using points? If the latter, then there may be a new paradigm of booking at VGF that includes the key dates of 11 months, 7 months and also 31 days.
If a Fixed Week Owner opts out of their fixed week, then the dates become available for other members to book using the same rules that apply when a traditional points reservation is cancelled. The normal Breakage Inventory rules apply as well: If a fixed week is canceled within 60 days of check-in and no Member tries to book it, the accommodation can be turned over to CRO for Disney to rent out as a cash reservation.

I don't think there will be a new paradigm of booking at VGF due to possible Fixed Week cancellations, at least not one that is noticeable. A Fixed Week Owner may cancel at 7 months relative to the alternative reservation they are making -- not relative to the actual Fixed Week. For example, a Fixed Week Owner who has VGF Week 51 in 2014 might want to cancel his week to book Aulani for Spring Break in March 2015. He would probably wait until August 2014, when the 7-month window opens for March 2015, before he cancels his fixed week.
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Old 05-31-2013, 09:46 PM   #39
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Originally Posted by wdrl View Post
If a Fixed Week Owner opts out of their fixed week, then the dates become available for other members to book using the same rules that apply when a traditional points reservation is cancelled. The normal Breakage Inventory rules apply as well: If a fixed week is canceled within 60 days of check-in and no Member tries to book it, the accommodation can be turned over to CRO for Disney to rent out as a cash reservation.

I don't think there will be a new paradigm of booking at VGF due to possible Fixed Week cancellations, at least not one that is noticeable. A Fixed Week Owner may cancel at 7 months relative to the alternative reservation they are making -- not relative to the actual Fixed Week. For example, a Fixed Week Owner who has VGF Week 51 in 2014 might want to cancel his week to book Aulani for Spring Break in March 2015. He would probably wait until August 2014, when the 7-month window opens for March 2015, before he cancels his fixed week.
I see your point, and it makes sense, but what about the owner who holds a reservation but is unsure whether or not they are actually going on vacation at all? I think that there are a decent number of people who do this, and there may be more given the flexibility of cancelling a fixed week reservation on short notice combined with the ability to bank those points into the following year. So instead of your example of cancelling at the 7 month window for the new reservation, cancelling at the 31 day window of the fixed week with no new reservation made. But I do agree, even if this does happen, it would be nearly impossible to track. Best we could do is hear about a few random stories about people being able to book VGF a month in advance.
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Old 05-31-2013, 10:24 PM   #40
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Originally Posted by ELMC View Post
I see your point, and it makes sense, but what about the owner who holds a reservation but is unsure whether or not they are actually going on vacation at all? I think that there are a decent number of people who do this, and there may be more given the flexibility of cancelling a fixed week reservation on short notice combined with the ability to bank those points into the following year. So instead of your example of cancelling at the 7 month window for the new reservation, cancelling at the 31 day window of the fixed week with no new reservation made. But I do agree, even if this does happen, it would be nearly impossible to track. Best we could do is hear about a few random stories about people being able to book VGF a month in advance.
People do that now. There are enough occurrences of people getting waitlist requests around 31 days out to define something of a trend. I'm not sure that we'll notice any difference with VGF.

If a WL is filled at 31 days, it may prompt people to think it's related to a Guaranteed Week cancellation. But we'll never know the exact circumstances. People get their waitlists met all the time at resorts which don't have Guaranteed Weeks.
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Old 06-01-2013, 08:16 AM   #41
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Originally Posted by Dean View Post
It's because of the fact that the dates that might fall outside the premier dates are Magic season for weeks 15 & 16 where for Xmas and NY's they are Dream or Adventure season plus the 10% increase.
I do understand that. What I don't understand is Easter could fall anytime from late March to mid April, yet weeks 7-14 take far fewer points than weeks 15 & 16 even though they are all dates within Magic Season. For example, a SV Studio takes 186 points during weeks 7-14 and 250 points during weeks 15 and 16. I believe Easter is just as likely to fall in weeks 13 & 14 as in weeks 15 & 16.
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Old 06-01-2013, 09:34 AM   #42
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I do understand that. What I don't understand is Easter could fall anytime from late March to mid April, yet weeks 7-14 take far fewer points than weeks 15 & 16 even though they are all dates within Magic Season. For example, a SV Studio takes 186 points during weeks 7-14 and 250 points during weeks 15 and 16. I believe Easter is just as likely to fall in weeks 13 & 14 as in weeks 15 & 16.
First, there's no requirement that they take the points chart and make it exactly the same plus 10%, it's their BBQ, they can price it how they want. However, the difference you quote is related to the fact that the difference between Magic and Premier is quite large. I think you're having issues with the fact that Easter moves more than any other of the top holidays and that the points will vary more. Why not average the extra points for Easter over a broader number of weeks, I can only assume that their history on demand suggests that those weeks are the most demanded weeks in spite of the Easter dates. To me that makes some of the surrounding weeks a relative bargain for those where their travel is more related to Easter than the calendar itself. Just remember that the calendar dates for the weeks will also vary. Week 15 will start anywhere between the 9th and 15th of April. Given the complicated nature of how the Easter dates are determined, I do not know how well the timeshare calendar changes will track when Easter is but I'd guess is will somewhat.
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Old 06-01-2013, 12:21 PM   #43
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I don't think it is Easter so much as this is Spring Break time. I don't mean in wild college break way... Our schools always had a week off during this time frame whether Easter fell in between or not.
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Old 06-04-2013, 10:33 AM   #44
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Originally Posted by KAT4DISNEY View Post
After seeing the points charts I see that much of the basis of my question was incorrect as it was coming from the poster that seemed to say they had purchased a week 52 for 139 points and that the fixed weeks were discounted. I must have misunderstood what week they purchased.

So it seemed obvious in my head from that info to at least purchase a week 52 or some other discounted week if it was ever possible you might use it since you can cancel the week without any penalty at all. But I'm still surprised at the pricing and lack of "penalty" - ie you get points one for one if you cancel the week - so it still might make the most sense for a particular buyer who often visits in a popular week even if they thought they'd only go that specific week every 3-6 years and would cancel it for other times or resorts in other years. Or even more so for a new buyer with contract minimums although that brings up another question of what DVC will require from a new buyer if they want to purchase a week in a studio that would be 139 points but the minimum is 160? One of the lessons learned from the 2 years of point reallocations, and in a small part to the point change made at BLT prior to opening, a cushion can be a good thing and in the meantime they could work the fixed week nicely by using it in high cost years and cancelling and booking with points in other years when they want to go at other times. As I understand it Aulani's fixed week have what sounds like a true 10% upcharge and you don't have the 10% extra points to use when you cancel a week. The VGF only has a premium price if, as you mentioned, a person only ever used it for the week the purchased.

Overall it seems like DVC is missing an opportunity to maximize profits with this pricing model on the fixed weeks and by taking up to 35% of the rooms out of the pool at the most popular times (as I assume those are the ones that will sell the fixed weeks) the remainder of the VGF purchasers are losing as well with less availability.

I did see one post of a person that split a contract and still received the fixed week so that may not be given up - or may have happened by mistake.



Yes, it probably would be minimal but the savvy buyer could make it work out very well. And there were enough of those over the years who figured out how to maximize their purchase with Sun-Thur stays but it is a fixed number of weeks this would probably work with so probably not much if any impact. And I'd guess that some who buy are going to be just as apt to let the unit sit empty during years they can't make it.



This is along the line I was thinking although less so than when I thought week 52 (and perhaps others) were actually discounted at 139 points.
Your analysis is what put me over the edge to buy a fixed week at VGF. There is no penalty to turn the fixed week into regular points if we do not use the week. The 10% premium is only a premium when the week costs less in some years. Realized we could use the week in the years that cost more than the premium and turn in for points in the years that cost less to book. There was no penalty for buying a fixed week.

Also found out because I have a Dec UY and bought a fixed week 49 I would have until the first week of Dec to decide if I want to use my fixed week or not. Then I would have until the end of July to bank the points. So for 2013 Dec UY I can use my week 49 2013 Dec 8-15. If I cannot use it I have to call in by Nov 7 to cancel my guaranteed week and convert to unit to points. Then it is treated like any other Dec UY points as I know have until July 2014 to bank the points or to used the points by the end of Nov 2014. BTW my guide originally attached the guaranteed week to my June UY contract and that would have been a problem. I would have had to opt out of my fixed week 49 by the beginning of May about 7 months before check in. So get the UY closest to the fixed week that you are buying to get more flexibility.

The same person posted that a week 51 was 139 points also said they were able to split their fixed week contract. I was not able to do so. Maybe they did get fixed week 51 for 65 less points and was able to split the contract up. But I was not able to get either from my guide. YMMV
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Old 06-04-2013, 11:07 AM   #45
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The 10% premium is only a premium when the week costs less in some years. Realized we could use the week in the years that cost more than the premium and turn in for points in the years that cost less to book.
If you average the cost over multiple years, you'll be paying a 10% premium over the long haul whenever the Guaranteed Week is kept.

Simplest example for Week 49 is a Standard View Studio. Even with the flexible calendar, the weekly cost in a SV Studio will always be the same because the point costs for Adventure and Choice seasons are identical.

Booking on points, Week 49 SV Studio will always be 125 points. The Guaranteed Week cost is 138. Those 13 extra points cost $1885 up front and $70+ annually in dues.

Other villas have a higher cost in Choice Season than Adventure, but Week 49 will never have more than 3 nights in Choice every 6-7 years. So the math doesn't change dramatically.

The question is whether the Guaranteed Week is necessary or not. Unless DVC has been completely negligent in not adjusting the point charts for early-December, I suspect those weeks are disproportionately popular amongst those of us who discuss such things on-line. On the forums, people make a big deal about visiting in early Dec, but I don't think the more casual owners are particularly drawn to those dates.

Reports of zero availability right at 11 months are rare (exceptions being small categories at larger resorts like AKV Concierge and BLT Theme Park View.) I'm not convinced that VGF will suddenly buck that trend, even with the impact of the Guaranteed Week offering.

Time will tell whether the Guaranteed Week ends up being a virtual necessity or an expensive way to save a phone call.
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