DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

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Old 05-17-2013, 11:24 PM   #16
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Originally Posted by nd43 View Post
There are people who purchased BLT in the 90's at opening. Resales are now trending between $90.00 to $100.00. I am sure, when BLT opened, $95+ appeared "crazy" to many on this board and made it clear buying direct was a joke.
You are sure of this? Can you point to one example? With all due respect, I think you could benefit from brushing up on your DVC history. Never before in the history of DVC has the gap between resales and direct pricing been as large as it is now (or technically was at this time last year). For decades the average savings on a resale contract was somewhere in the range of 20%, a number that was neutral enough to convince people to go either way. Resales for BCV at the time were in the 80s, so a new resort at a prime location for $20 more per point was an easier sell. Never before have the price increases of the direct resorts been so substantial in such a short period of time. So your comparison of people who buy direct today with the founding buyers at BLT is not a good one. To extend it to VGF is also suspect, as DVC direct prices are in a completely different ballpark as they have been historically.

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Those same people are now encouraging people to buy resale with less benefits at the same price. Who was the fool?
It's not the same thing. Nobody is telling people that they should not have bought BLT direct when it was first offered. What people are saying is that it is not a good value now, at today's prices.

But I have to ask, why the anger? Nobody is looking to make people feel badly. The fact of the matter is that based on financial criteria, in today's marketplace, purchasing direct is a significantly inferior option to purchasing resale. If, knowing this, you choose to buy direct because you are more comfortable, or you choose to spend your points on cruises knowing that option might be taken away, or whatever your rationale is, so be it. Our goal here is to educate people, not judge them. The discussions you are seeing here now about resale vs. direct did not happen back then, at least not in this context. The marketplace has changed.

What happens with VGF is anybody's guess. But it is not an exact parallel to the opening of BLT. At that time, the difference between BLT direct and other resorts resale was much less. Now buyers are going to be faced with a choice of $200pp direct at VGF or $60pp resale at SSR. That is a significant difference, and one that has never existed in the history of DVC.
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Old 05-17-2013, 11:30 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by agie65 View Post
If you buying AKL 330 pts or over you pay only 128/pp after promo discount, prorated MF, and get 2012 points as well. These can be used on other disney product like DCL. Sure is very convenient to buy direct and have piece of mind, but there are chances you may find one good resale contract. Do agree most of the contract out there are stripped, so may not have a big saving.
With all due respect, I think that this is lazy analysis. You are getting the 2012 points because in most cases you are still in the 2012 use year. That is not a bonus. Also, there are plenty of good resale contracts out there that have full points. Yes, we are seeing more stripped contracts on the market, but it is not that difficult to find a contract with full 2012 and 2013 points, and even sometimes banked 2011 points. The opportunities for savings are substantial, I think you are too quick in dismissing them.
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Old 05-17-2013, 11:43 PM   #18
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Instead of making the jump from resale prices to direct prices why not increase your resale offer a few dollars per point above what you have been offering to Increase your chances of success and still make great savings
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Old 05-18-2013, 12:15 AM   #19
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You are sure of this? Can you point to one example? With all due respect, I think you could benefit from brushing up on your DVC history. Never before in the history of DVC has the gap between resales and direct pricing been as large as it is now (or technically was at this time last year). For decades the average savings on a resale contract was somewhere in the range of 20%, a number that was neutral enough to convince people to go either way. Resales for BCV at the time were in the 80s, so a new resort at a prime location for $20 more per point was an easier sell. Never before have the price increases of the direct resorts been so substantial in such a short period of time. So your comparison of people who buy direct today with the founding buyers at BLT is not a good one. To extend it to VGF is also suspect, as DVC direct prices are in a completely different ballpark as they have been historically.



It's not the same thing. Nobody is telling people that they should not have bought BLT direct when it was first offered. What people are saying is that it is not a good value now, at today's prices.

But I have to ask, why the anger? Nobody is looking to make people feel badly. The fact of the matter is that based on financial criteria, in today's marketplace, purchasing direct is a significantly inferior option to purchasing resale. If, knowing this, you choose to buy direct because you are more comfortable, or you choose to spend your points on cruises knowing that option might be taken away, or whatever your rationale is, so be it. Our goal here is to educate people, not judge them. The discussions you are seeing here now about resale vs. direct did not happen back then, at least not in this context. The marketplace has changed.

What happens with VGF is anybody's guess. But it is not an exact parallel to the opening of BLT. At that time, the difference between BLT direct and other resorts resale was much less. Now buyers are going to be faced with a choice of $200pp direct at VGF or $60pp resale at SSR. That is a significant difference, and one that has never existed in the history of DVC.
The history I reviewed was what people were paying when a resort opened to what the resale market looked like 10 years later. It appeared, fairly consistently, the people that purchased a resort early did ok if they held about 10 years. By ok, I mean they did not take huge losses. That was my only point. Buying a new resort direct at opening, to date, has done ok for people although most comments on this board would lead people to believe buying direct was a financial disaster all the time.

So, the trend would need to stop for VGF. I think you point out very good reasons why VGF might be different, but it would be different if early direct buyers had a big loss in 10 years. I agree, no one can predict this with certainty. History, in this case, is on my side in terms of how new resorts performed over time from opening. It might all change with VGF.

To be honest, my anger was a carry over from another thread were someone was claiming Disney would be laughing to the bank when people buy direct. That attitude about direct buyers being fools being duped by Disney is offensive. You caught some blow back from that frustration.
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Old 05-18-2013, 12:28 AM   #20
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The history I reviewed was what people were paying when a resort opened to what the resale market looked like 10 years later. It appeared, fairly consistently, the people that purchased a resort early did ok if they held about 10 years. By ok, I mean they did not take huge losses. That was my only point. Buying a new resort direct at opening, to date, has done ok for people although most comments on this board would lead people to believe buying direct was a financial disaster all the time.

So, the trend would need to stop for VGF. I think you point out very good reasons why VGF might be different, but it would be different if early direct buyers had a big loss in 10 years. I agree, no one can predict this with certainty. History, in this case, is on my side in terms of how new resorts performed over time from opening. It might all change with VGF.

To be honest, my anger was a carry over from another thread were someone was claiming Disney would be laughing to the bank when people buy direct. That attitude about direct buyers being fools being duped by Disney is offensive. You caught some blow back from that frustration.
Fair points all around. I think you're correct, historically anybody who bought into a new resort at the onset did quite well. However, with no "new" resorts currently on the market, all we can talk about is what is currently available. There is a tremendous difference between BLT at $98pp and BLT at $165. So when I criticize direct purchases, I am only talking about the here and now and not what people have done in the past. I try to make that clear, but I'm not always successful.

With regards to VGF, you are right. History supports your theory. But what does the prospectus of every mutual fund say? Past performance is no guarantee of future results. I've got a bad feeling about this one. But even if the resale market does somehow settle in at $170-180 per point, the true measure of the value of VGF is not against itself, but the other resorts. If it becomes possible to book a room at VGF using resale SSR points, the difference in out of pocket expense for that room reservation is astronomical.

With regards to Bill's post about Disney laughing to the bank, I believe he was engaging in a bit of hyperbole. But, if you look at the thinking behind his statement, it's not entirely flawed. People are paying $145 pp direct for AKV while others are buying it resale for $65pp. And despite what DVD would have you believe, there is not that significant a difference between direct and resale points. So is it entirely unfair to suggest that people who knowingly (or unknowingly) pay double for AKV direct points are a bit foolish? From a financial standpoint, it does seem like a foolish move. But I would not go so far as to call anybody a fool.
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Old 05-18-2013, 01:04 AM   #21
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With regards to Bill's post about Disney laughing to the bank, I believe he was engaging in a bit of hyperbole. But, if you look at the thinking behind his statement, it's not entirely flawed. People are paying $145 pp direct for AKV while others are buying it resale for $65pp. And despite what DVD would have you believe, there is not that significant a difference between direct and resale points. So is it entirely unfair to suggest that people who knowingly (or unknowingly) pay double for AKV direct points are a bit foolish? From a financial standpoint, it does seem like a foolish move. But I would not go so far as to call anybody a fool.
OK, Perhaps I was slightly over sensitive to Bill's comment. I have spent a lot of time on DVC and this decision has taken more effort then I care to admit. I am extremely analytical and really hate the picture of the naive foolish buyer.

As far as AKV, as a direct buyer, my concern would be the spread between the early direct buyer price and my buy-in price because that is true apples to apples comparison for someone buying direct. With AKV, that spread might now be so large resale might be the best option if I absolutely love AKV. However, I might consider what other direct options are available were the spread from opening price and now is reasonable. If you go down this track, you end up needing to see the info about VGF for potentially your best direct option at this time because all the current resorts given all the price increases have a large spread from opening to today. Existing resorts do present poor direct options right now, but I would still measure "spread" between early buy in price to today to rate the best values. As you point out, this has also created the largest spread between resale and direct as well (that is just not the measure I am using).

So, we might get to the same place, just using a direct bias in my case. In fact, the way Disney has done this, new resorts might be the only thing left for direct buyers needing anything more then a few points on one of their existing contracts that spend anytime trying to really analyze their options. Even these new resorts present new challenges with high entry costs and high point charts. It is not an easy world for a direct buyer. Just do not call us foolish

So I am trying to make the best direct purchase. I am spending a lot of time trying to do it. I strongly believe people considering DVC need this insight as well and not just a "buy resale because direct does not make sense" approach.
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Old 05-18-2013, 03:07 AM   #22
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Here's a something to ponder. Lets assume that Disney can't ever get rid of the resale market. Is it in their best interests to have resale sell as close to direct prices as possible or is it best for them to have resale prices as low as possible? Can they even influence the price of resale? How small a discount will a resale buyer want before they just buy direct instead.
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Old 05-18-2013, 07:14 AM   #23
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Instead of making the jump from resale prices to direct prices why not increase your resale offer a few dollars per point above what you have been offering to Increase your chances of success and still make great savings
Agreed. Dh and I will be doing exactly this.
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Old 05-18-2013, 07:25 AM   #24
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Disney needs the resale market to obtain points back via ROFR so they can sell old resorts as there is still a demand for them. Sure, if they eliminated the resale market, they could obtain more points back via foreclosure but does Disney really want to go through the hassle of an increase in foreclosures or having to take back every contract vs. pick & choose via ROFR???

Also, some people can only afford resale- period. It is not a lost sale for Disney as a certain percentage would not have bought direct anyway. By buying resale, that consumer is still bringing $$ into the park via tickets, food, etc. From the short time I have watched the market, the direct prices have increased at a faster rate than resale. Will the resale market catch up so the difference is not as large??

Someone did post that AKL, SSR, & BLT have the largest foreclosures. I have seen that to be the case according to the OCC website. Perhaps because Disney acquires more points back via foreclosure & does not have the need to ROFR as many? At least for AKL & SSR they are larger resorts with more points available? DVC has inventory of AKL so less ROFR? All contributing to price difference of direct vs. resale? Those resorts have the largest price difference between direct vs. resale.

Last edited by NoleFan; 05-18-2013 at 07:32 AM.
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Old 05-18-2013, 08:09 AM   #25
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Disney needs the resale market to obtain points back via ROFR so they can sell old resorts as there is still a demand for them. Sure, if they eliminated the resale market, they could obtain more points back via foreclosure but does Disney really want to go through the hassle of an increase in foreclosures or having to take back every contract vs. pick & choose via ROFR???

Also, some people can only afford resale- period. It is not a lost sale for Disney as a certain percentage would not have bought direct anyway. By buying resale, that consumer is still bringing $$ into the park via tickets, food, etc. From the short time I have watched the market, the direct prices have increased at a faster rate than resale. Will the resale market catch up so the difference is not as large??

Someone did post that AKL, SSR, & BLT have the largest foreclosures. I have seen that to be the case according to the OCC website. Perhaps because Disney acquires more points back via foreclosure & does not have the need to ROFR as many? At least for AKL & SSR they are larger resorts with more points available? DVC has inventory of AKL so less ROFR? All contributing to price difference of direct vs. resale? Those resorts have the largest price difference between direct vs. resale.
It should be pointed out that some people can only afford to buy direct. Those without cash in hand can easily sign on the dotted line with Disney and be an owner. Whether or not they can actually afford to keep up with their payments determines whether or not their contract will eventually end up as a foreclosure for Disney to re-acquire and re-sell.

Disney loses nothing, they profit all the payments including interest the owner did pay, and once payments stop they can turn around and sell the exact same product at a higher price.

Disney is not practicing ROFR nearly as much at those resorts (I mean, why bother?) and therefore the resale/direct divide is growing larger and larger with every direct price hike.
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Old 05-18-2013, 08:10 AM   #26
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Also, some people can only afford resale- period. It is not a lost sale for Disney as a certain percentage would not have bought direct anyway. By buying resale, that consumer is still bringing $$ into the park via tickets, food, etc. From the short time I have watched the market, the direct prices have increased at a faster rate than resale. Will the resale market catch up so the difference is not as large?

That is exactly why we went resale! The difference between resale vs direct was $8400! We can pay out of pocket for the resale upfront costs. We would have had to finance direct. That is something we did not want to do. I think everyone needs to do what is best for themselves!
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Old 05-18-2013, 09:04 AM   #27
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It should be pointed out that some people can only afford to buy direct.
That is an unusual definition of the word afford! i would suggest if you don't have the cash to buy and need to finance then it is something you cannot afford!
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Old 05-18-2013, 10:03 AM   #28
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That is an unusual definition of the word afford! i would suggest if you don't have the cash to buy and need to finance then it is something you cannot afford!
Well, by that definition, most cannot afford their houses.

Yes, I recognize that DVC is essentially a partially prepaid vacation so I'm comparing apples and oranges.

IMHO, there are 2 basic reasons most WDW guests join DVC. Sometimes only one applies and sometimes one is much more important than the other. It depends on the individual.

First, they want to be a member of the "club". Like so many clubs, you can't really put a price on this. For this motivation, I respectfully submit there is some justification to finance. It's not up to me to decide how much someone values club membership.

Second, they want to save on their annual WDW vacations, or at least upgrade to a better resort at a similar cost. For this motivation, IMHO, financing makes no sense. Having run the numbers a few times, financing pretty much eliminates any possible financial savings achieved through DVC while tying up valuable capital and/or credit.

If your primary motivation is to become a DVC member is the membership itself, then "afford" means one thing. However, if your primary motivation is to save money, then "afford" means something different.

Buying direct gives people a chance to finance; a chance they might not have when buying resale. In this sense, buying direct is they only way they can "afford" DVC.
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Old 05-18-2013, 10:27 AM   #29
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Well, by that definition, most cannot afford their houses.
The difference being that a house is a necessity
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Old 05-18-2013, 11:55 AM   #30
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That is an unusual definition of the word afford! i would suggest if you don't have the cash to buy and need to finance then it is something you cannot afford!
This is precisely what I was insinuating to the poster saying many can only afford resale. I would love to see the % of direct buyers that pay cash. I would bet it's a lot smaller than those that buy direct and finance. My point is that ANYONE can "afford" to buy through Disney. But whether or not they should finance to do so is a personal decision.
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