Disney Information Station Logo

Go Back   The DIS Discussion Forums - DISboards.com > Disney Trip Planning Forums > Theme Parks Attractions and Strategies
Find Hotel Specials & DIScounts
 
facebooktwitterpinterestgoogle plusyoutubeDIS UpdatesDIS email updates
Register Chat FAQ Tickers Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read





Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 05-26-2013, 11:01 AM   #1021
mom2rtk
DIS Veteran
 
mom2rtk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 26,063

Quote:
Originally Posted by bcrook View Post


I bet they overbook the FP+ like airlines based on no shows rates. They will have very good data.
And I would have thought they would have enough ADR no-show data to overschedule those accurately. But apparently there were still lots of empty tables while walk-ups were turned away. And they still needed to add the CC hold. (Or maybe just couldn't resist monetizing it. )
mom2rtk is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 11:05 AM   #1022
Rileygirl
DIS Veteran
 
Rileygirl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 716

edited to delete
__________________

Last edited by Rileygirl; 06-10-2013 at 01:55 PM.
Rileygirl is offline   Reply With Quote
|
The DIS
Register to remove

Join Date: 1997
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 1,000,000
Old 05-26-2013, 11:13 AM   #1023
Squidgyness
DIS Veteran
 
Squidgyness's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: NE United Kingdom
Posts: 871

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rileygirl View Post
Another Random thought (inspired by mom2rtk yet again)

The 2 biggest things that most disers hate about this new system

1) There is only 1 E fast pass guarenteed per day
2) That is only 3 in total guarenteed per day.

Now, we did a lot of speculative number crunching, and its fairly obvious why the 3 cap in total, and 1 e only guarenteethat is across the boards for all 4 theme parks: its because of the worst park and busiest time AK and Xmas. Its the lowest common denominator. They cannot guarentee more due to this, and they were not going to come out with a slogan that says 4.5 at mk in march, but 6.7 in september, and 5.6 at studios in nov,, ect, ect.

However, if Disney in fact has a comprehensive computer control base in place, that they are confident in, and if they can get 80% of both onsite and offsite to play their game, well then

Maybe we should not be looking at the lowest common denominator. Maybe, although NOT GUARENTEED and SUBJECT to CHANGE, Disney can offer 5, 6, 7 or 8 on a consistent basis at most of the parks, most of the time. 3 prebooked, and several the 'day of'.

Maybe thats how they think guests are going to love this new system. Maybe they are laughing at our whining.

and this brings me directly to the FOTL concept of fp+
I will talk about this next, because no expirey still is confounding me.
Leaving aside the assertion that 80% or even a majority of guests would prebook every day...

They wouldn't have final confirmation of how many people will be at the park that day until the day before.

If they changed FP+ allocations 60 days out and then it turned out that more people turned up at that park on the day for whatever reason, it would throw a spanner in the whole system.

They'd have to put a safety margin in place for guests turning up without them knowing, or else lines might spiral and angry guests result. Don't forget those people using FP+ still need to use standby lines at some point.

If Disney miscalculate their FP allocation and longer standby lines occur, it could be nasty.

This is one of my main problems. You can't always predict what everyone is going to do, and it doesnt take a majority of people to affect something. If they knew with 90% certainty that 25k people were going to MK that day, and then on the day 28, 29 or even 30k people turned up because of offsite guests not informing Disney of what park they were going too, or because of weather conditions, or for whatever reason or whim, that really skews the system. Imagine if all those 3-5k extra people went straight to one of the headliners. The line would be significantly longer than Disney forcasted.

This system is based, ultimately, on park guests and their predictability. I think they overestimated it. Think back to the analogy earlier in the thread about paths being planned but not used. You can try to direct people, but you can't make sure they all go the same direction you want. That's where I see the fundamental flaw.
__________________
Me (Son, 22)
WDW Trips :
08/96 | 08/98 | 08/03 | 07/06 | 07/09
(All Offsite, 14 Days. WDW, US/IOA, SeaWorld and KSC)

Other Trips :
France/Belgium 07, London 08 and 09, Malta 07/2011.

NEXT TRIP: Unknown
Squidgyness is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 11:13 AM   #1024
Rileygirl
DIS Veteran
 
Rileygirl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 716

edited to delete
__________________

Last edited by Rileygirl; 06-10-2013 at 01:55 PM.
Rileygirl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 11:13 AM   #1025
mom2rtk
DIS Veteran
 
mom2rtk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 26,063

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rileygirl View Post
Another Random thought (inspired by mom2rtk yet again)

The 2 biggest things that most disers hate about this new system

1) There is only 1 E fast pass guarenteed per day
2) That is only 3 in total guarenteed per day.

Now, we did a lot of speculative number crunching, and its fairly obvious why the 3 cap in total, and 1 e only guarenteethat is across the boards for all 4 theme parks: its because of the worst park and busiest time AK and Xmas. Its the lowest common denominator. They cannot guarentee more due to this, and they were not going to come out with a slogan that says 4.5 at mk in march, but 6.7 in september, and 5.6 at studios in nov,, ect, ect.

However, if Disney in fact has a comprehensive computer control base in place, that they are confident in, and if they can get 80% of both onsite and offsite to play their game, well then

Maybe we should not be looking at the lowest common denominator. Maybe, although NOT GUARENTEED and SUBJECT to CHANGE, Disney can offer 5, 6, 7 or 8 on a consistent basis at most of the parks, most of the time. 3 prebooked, and several the 'day of'.

Maybe thats how they think guests are going to love this new system. Maybe they are laughing at our whining.
I've had a feeling all along that's where they would head with the numbers. That it would be a moving target. I could be wrong, but if they go with dynamic pricing AND dynamic FP allocations, they are putting themselves dangerously close to complicating too much for the average visitor. And isn't that the visitor they seem to want to be helping?

They would do well to follow the KISS principle. "Keep it simple, stupid".
mom2rtk is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 11:18 AM   #1026
Squidgyness
DIS Veteran
 
Squidgyness's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: NE United Kingdom
Posts: 871

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rileygirl View Post
My kids are still in high school. I have to travel spring break, xmas, easter or summer because I just cant take them out of school (my own personal preference, others may feel differently)

I am already screwed with airline prices. Canadian March break is ridiculous. But I have to pay it, or not go. What do I do? As soon as I figure we are headed to florida, I watch all airline flights out of buffalo like a hawk. The trend in the last few years has been cheapest prices on the first day they are released, and they grow expodentialy over time.

I think that it will be the same type of deal with disney, if you are locked into a certain time frame, you will have to pay the dollars, or not go. This will be a fine line Disney will have to draw out. Perhaps, because they want people to prepurchase, it will be cheapest the further out. (that means they get the data even earlier then 60 days.....)
How would this work with AP's by the way? Would they just keep AP's higher than the highest possible ticket?

How would the water park options work? Would they change the pricing in hotter months because they know people want them more?

@mom2rtk, Making it complicated might not just affect the customer, it could result in Disney making a mistake in FP allocation. Allocate too many or too few and on the day it could get nasty.
__________________
Me (Son, 22)
WDW Trips :
08/96 | 08/98 | 08/03 | 07/06 | 07/09
(All Offsite, 14 Days. WDW, US/IOA, SeaWorld and KSC)

Other Trips :
France/Belgium 07, London 08 and 09, Malta 07/2011.

NEXT TRIP: Unknown
Squidgyness is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 11:18 AM   #1027
Rileygirl
DIS Veteran
 
Rileygirl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 716

edited to delete
__________________

Last edited by Rileygirl; 06-10-2013 at 01:55 PM.
Rileygirl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 11:20 AM   #1028
Rileygirl
DIS Veteran
 
Rileygirl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 716

edited to delete
__________________

Last edited by Rileygirl; 06-10-2013 at 01:56 PM.
Rileygirl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 11:31 AM   #1029
mom2rtk
DIS Veteran
 
mom2rtk's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Posts: 26,063

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rileygirl View Post
Maybe we are getting way to technical, and we should be looking at how disney will keep it simple for the average visitor.

I dont know how they would price the ap either, or any of the other type of ticket media.

Its too much info. Argghhhh....
An AP would probably be the simplest part of all of this. They will price it where they think they can get away with it. I can't imagine it being anything but the flat rate arrangement they offer now.
mom2rtk is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 11:38 AM   #1030
Planogirl
I feel the nerd in me stirring already
Oh well, let's look on the bright side
If I hadn't been so wiped out I would have kissed my anesthesiologist
 
Planogirl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Frisco,Texas
Posts: 44,072

I was just thinking that Disney may have already accepted that a certain number of people will want to see Harry Potter regardless of WDW incentives. They might be able to accept that one day away.

However, it almost looks like the non-Disney parks could band together in some way and try to lure visitors to spend their whole vacation with them. That is bound to really worry Disney and they would definitely want to keep that from happening.
__________________
PG
Planogirl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 11:46 AM   #1031
jade1
If your lucky enough to live on the lake, your lucky enough.
 
jade1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Wayzata, MN
Posts: 5,884

Quote:
Originally Posted by joshsmom View Post
Somewhere in this thread, I had asked about people scheduling 60 days (or however long) out and then NOT using their time slot for whatever reason (they decided to go to a different park, didn't want to ride then, etc). I know that Disney put CC holds on some ADRs because of no shows. How do you think they could control for FP+ no shows? Wouldn't that kind of defeat the purpose if people scheduled but then didn't show up? With the current system, I'm sure there's a certain percentage that don't use their FPs for whatever reason. Many times we just hand them to other families on our way out. That won't be possible with FP+. So would those slots just go unused??
Exact same as now. Standby will be that much faster.

Have you ever been in SB and simply hoped nobody with a FP comes into line-same thing.

All this system is really doing is putting the FP machine at your finger tips. It always seemed stupid to have to go into the park (and the whole family) and to the ride itself, just to maybe get a ride return time, not knowing when or if even available.

If I were a rope dropper-I would pray there are no penalties for not showing up, and that indeed many do not show so I can burn through as many SB lines as possible. And actually-there is a good chance IMO that rope drop will be even better, as many folks will over sleep the early FP+, and many are no longer in a rush to begin with-as they hold 3 for the afternoon or evening.
__________________

Last edited by jade1; 05-26-2013 at 12:16 PM.
jade1 is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 11:56 AM   #1032
Squidgyness
DIS Veteran
 
Squidgyness's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: NE United Kingdom
Posts: 871

Quote:
Originally Posted by Planogirl View Post
I was just thinking that Disney may have already accepted that a certain number of people will want to see Harry Potter regardless of WDW incentives. They might be able to accept that one day away.

However, it almost looks like the non-Disney parks could band together in some way and try to lure visitors to spend their whole vacation with them. That is bound to really worry Disney and they would definitely want to keep that from happening.
They could. Especially if they marketed the Flexiticket better, although I think Universal would rather their guests spend 150 on a short stay purely at their parks than share 250 with other parks for a longer stay.

After all, people going to Universal paying say 150 for a couple days is better than people going to disney and paying 300 for over a week. (Though they give 14 days for £109 to people from the UK. Suggests the flexi ticket is very popular here and people didn't want to pay that first price. But I digress.)

Shorter visits = more unique visitors able to come into the parks in a week = more ticket purchases = more money.

Disney is really 95% about 4 day long visits +, so they rely on getting people to stay onsite and then spend reliably in park. Universal can be used as part of a longer stay, but it is also about 2 day long visits from anyone they can get, in which they can get people to buy tickets, impulse buy some merch and food, and then get the next load of guests through the door.

If a person spends most of their money in a couple of their days at Disney (say days at a character meal or upscale dining establishment, and buying most of their souvenirs), then the rest of the time they aren't really contributing that much to park spending. Universal enjoys a shorter time for average guests I believe, so they aren't bothered if after two days you've bought everything, thats all you were there for anyway.

I think Universal has an easier job marketing things to their guests. Disney is a bigger, longer experience, perhaps. But that means harder to please guests and a bigger outlay to keep them entertained, imo. I don't think they've hit the target with Fastpass+.

OT: Are there any surveys showing the ratio of people who would book rides in advance to people who wouldn't? Because I still don't think a majority would book rides in advance, much less than 80%.
__________________
Me (Son, 22)
WDW Trips :
08/96 | 08/98 | 08/03 | 07/06 | 07/09
(All Offsite, 14 Days. WDW, US/IOA, SeaWorld and KSC)

Other Trips :
France/Belgium 07, London 08 and 09, Malta 07/2011.

NEXT TRIP: Unknown

Last edited by Squidgyness; 05-26-2013 at 12:02 PM.
Squidgyness is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 11:57 AM   #1033
maiapapaya
Totally DIS-tracted!
 
maiapapaya's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: southwestern ON
Posts: 2,403

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rileygirl View Post
...

However, if Disney in fact has a comprehensive computer control base in place, that they are confident in, and if they can get 80% of both onsite and offsite to play their game, well then
While reading through the new posts, this particular line made me laugh Sorry Rileygirl, not actually laughing at your post, but the idea that Disney IT can actually handle all of the potential technical aspects and issues of this proposed new system (we all know how well they've done over the years with the website ...)
__________________

me DH DD22 DD11 DD9 Finnegan
1971 offsite ~ 1988 CBR ~ 2009 Poly ~ 2010 Poly ~ 2011 Poly CL ~ 2012 Poly CL ~ 2013 Poly ~ 2014 Fantasy Western Caribbean ~ 2014 GF/3-night Bahamas ~ 2015 Magic Mediterranean
maiapapaya is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 12:02 PM   #1034
Rileygirl
DIS Veteran
 
Rileygirl's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Posts: 716

edited to delete
__________________

Last edited by Rileygirl; 06-10-2013 at 01:56 PM.
Rileygirl is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-26-2013, 12:25 PM   #1035
maiapapaya
Totally DIS-tracted!
 
maiapapaya's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: southwestern ON
Posts: 2,403

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rileygirl View Post
Thats why I always put a disclaimer in

Its a big freakin 'IF"

Course, the price of 1 billion dollars does suggest at least THEY think they can do it.......
Yes, a big freakin' 'IF' indeed! If the speculation is true that TPB look at FP+ as a means to control the masses, who goes where when (which means lots of data manipulation), along with the RDIF, the use of multiple platforms (phone aps, website, in-park equipment ...) the potential for technical issues seems massive! I'm sure Disney always thinks they are capable. But as an example, from what I've heard - don't know from personal experience because non-US guests can't even access the new website yet - it's been glitchy as heck, some recent FP testing made the SB lines a nightmare, the RDIF tests in the shops weren't problem-free etc. My confidence isn't high for FP+. Sometimes high tech seems so cool and cutting edge. Clearly the temptation was too great for TPTB. But I wonder if they are just trying to make it too complex.

I just think there could have been much better ways to compete with the other Orlando attractions.
__________________

me DH DD22 DD11 DD9 Finnegan
1971 offsite ~ 1988 CBR ~ 2009 Poly ~ 2010 Poly ~ 2011 Poly CL ~ 2012 Poly CL ~ 2013 Poly ~ 2014 Fantasy Western Caribbean ~ 2014 GF/3-night Bahamas ~ 2015 Magic Mediterranean
maiapapaya is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

facebooktwitterpinterestgoogle plusyoutubeDIS Updates
GET OUR DIS UPDATES DELIVERED BY EMAIL



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 04:26 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

Copyright © 1997-2014, Werner Technologies, LLC. All Rights Reserved.