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Old 05-25-2013, 04:13 PM   #916
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Originally Posted by doconeill View Post
Honestly, currently I can't imagine not being able to walk up right at show time and not getting a seat. I think they could allocate any number to FP+ and it wouldn't matter.
I don't know. If FP+ entices people to the shows who wouldnt have before (or not at that time at least), which Disney seems to want, it could mess the current attendances up... in a good or bad way remains to be seen.

Disney seems to be forgetting that when you start messing with the way crowds naturally flow, strange things can happen. How many road systems have looked good on paper for directing people, but they don't actually work in real life situations. People aren't lab rats, they mostly don't blindly follow a piece of cheese held in front of them. Notice I said mostly

The thing with this system that really sticks in my throat isn't that people who plan in advance might get some advantage, they do now, and so they should, but it doesn't impact other guests all that much through standby times etc, and it is on their own merits.

It is that Disney is going to increase or decrease this advantage (depending who you are and what you think of the FP limits) themselves along with damaging non-planning guests experiences. I don't like it, I don't think it makes sense to spend 1BN on it and I really don't like the feeling that they are trying to make us do what they want. Put a carrot out there, fine. Carrot and stick has been mentioned. Don't employ the stick too much or people will see its use and wonder what you are up to...
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Old 05-25-2013, 04:24 PM   #917
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Old 05-25-2013, 04:27 PM   #918
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A quick reply regarding shows on the grid

Im with Will Austin on this: they had to be put on the grid for crowd management and fp availability.

And, no one knows the exact ratio Disney uses for FP vs Standby on an hourly rate but Im going to bet that its currently more then 10%, and could go up to 50% in time. This will have a huge impact on standby lines, especially for slow loading attractions.
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Old 05-25-2013, 04:30 PM   #919
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Originally Posted by Robo View Post
Considering that X number of Fantasmic! FP positions would have already been distributed over the 60 days prior for FP+,

at what time would all of the "day-of" Fantasmic! FP's be given out for the day at DHS ?

-Show your work.

(This test will count as 50% of your semester grade.)
Robo, you the man of sarcasm but I will play along.

I know another poster put out an article with details of ride capacity for each at Disney World. I am not going to try to find this article, but I am sure you know it more then I.

From my understanding, Fantasmic has roughly 7900 Seating (after the addition) and 3000 stand by. So I would guess (no hard numbers), that about 1600 is allotted for the dining package. That leaves about 6300 seats. After the recent tests, it seemed to me they saved half of the seats for standby and the other half for Fastpass. So lets now take out another 3150 in seats. The final number available for FP seems to be 3150.

Ok, now how many will be for FP+ and what could be left for same day Fastpass. I would say they allow another two sections for FP+ thus about 1600 to be scheduled with the remainder of 1550 for daily Fastpass.

I would estimate that this is probably very close to the amount of FP avail for TSMM under the current system. If that is correct I would estimate the the remaining FP would be gone by 12 -1pm.

If Disney offers two shows on a night I would guess that it would also offer FP+ for an additional 1600 available. Now the dining package isn't available for the second show, so this would open up a bunch of more daily FP daily. I would argue another 3200 daily FP. In this scenario daily FP would be available to about 7pm.

For me the fact that disney is putting the FP+ option on almost EVERY ride. They expect the main rides to be booked up. Since you have to figure less then 50% of people will schedule their rides 60 days out (Most will probably try to schedule the day before or during their trip sometime). I am expecting that people will notice that they can't pre-schedule the E-attractions, thus using FP+ on the lessor rides, parades, fireworks and meet and greets.

I can't see a way that the amount of FP+ options scheduled by everyone not to have about 50% available during the day. This could be for normal everyday use or the surprise FP. Unless you truly think Disney is going to allow EVERY single FP to be scheduled prior to someones arrival. How many people is this going to upset? Too many for me to think we are not going to have both options.

In conclusion, if Disney follows along this path we should have some limited available FP available each and every day. These may go fast for many rides, but I still think they will be available. My guess is somewhere about 50-60% of what is available today. Rides like PP, SM, TSM and EE will probably go very fast.

So did I pass my final this year?
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Old 05-25-2013, 04:33 PM   #920
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Originally Posted by Rileygirl View Post
Squidgyness

I read that reply. Its interesting, because all my though process is 'north american' based, and not internationally based. I think Canadians and Americans are very similar regarding vacation data

I think the norm is 1 week for north americans for vacations whereas Europeans (brits in particular) and those Aussies out there, will vacation for 2-3 weeks at a time.

I was reading some blog somewhere, back in Feb, when the FP Capacity thread in the rumours board was ongoing, that because North Americans only do 1 week trips typically, there was enough to do between the 6 theme parks that adding another park would not in fact increase disneys coffers. They only had to maintain, and mildly update to keep it going. (Hey, not saying this is true, just read it and it stuck in my mind)

So, your issues by virtue of being an international traveler, and the length of your stay, brings up a whole different can of worms to think about. I do believe that with those that are staying 2-3 weeks in the orlando area will purchase both disney and uni tickets because they have the time to do justice to both. However, I maintain that most people (I think, no statistical info to back me up on this) who stay for 1 week will primarily choose one or the other.

I think you also mentioned something about how you have to purchase tickets, and I want to go back and read on that.

I guess one question would be: how big of the population is our international travelers? I would imagine quite a large portion if one only thinks of the brazilian tour groups in the winter. So this could be a big impact. Makes one think

Robo: thats the longest post I think I have ever seen you make! I think maybe we could be that focus group for Disney. Lets see if they pay attention to what 'the people' say.

Jade: Pictures are gorgeous. Thanks for sharing them. I have my doubts how valuable a fp for fireworks is really going to be, if you still have to get there an hour early. But for some, it might work.
If I had to guesstimate I'd say at most 2/3rds to 3/4ers (depending on time of year) are north american guests in origin, with the remaining 1/3 to 1/4 being international. I'd also say 2/3rds to 3/4rs roughly are onsite guests with the rest offsite.

Might seem like international guests or offsite guests, only making up a minority, are less significant. But companies have faltered on losing fewer customers, particularly in a cut-throat industry with no let-ups. Tourism is a particularly vulnerable industry in this regard.

Granted Disney are one of the most secure in this industry, but they aren't immune. I went after 9/11 in 03 and it was pretty dead then, admittedly an extreme example. However, it shows that Disney doesn't exist in it's own bubble and I wonder if the execs are starting to think they do, or could in the future.

This seems like a massive double edged sword if you ask me. Which edge will be sharper... who knows.

---

30-50% fp allocation for shows... all i'm saying is they better have a good alternative lined up when they have to close the theatres (because as a PP said, people will book up for shows if rides get sold out of FP's, so if shows sell out too, that's 30-50% seating gone before any standby get in! I remember that in 09 I saw some full shows without FP being used, including Indy, LMA and the muppets. I don't know if this will affect me too much bacause in 09 we still got awesome seats as we arrived early. In FP+ scenario, we'd most likely still get in but have different seats.)

I suppose people at that full indy show were turned away, but that was A) just before showtime, in FP+ scenario they might fill up earlier, and B) No one got in first unless they turned up first. Waiting 20 minutes then seeing someone in the FP+ line go in ahead of you despite arriving after you, then being told you can't go in? Would be a problem if that occurs.

One "Sorry sir the theatre is full" all that goodwill gained by giving guests a prebooked fastpass for an earlier ride goes out the window. Doesn't matter if they should have gotten a fastpass beforehand, people will not react well imo.

Like I said, there is a big mental difference between waiting longer for a ride (which runs constantly) and not being able to get into a show. In a ride queue you are still moving up, just slower. Not getting into a show is a much more literal door being slammed in your face.
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Old 05-25-2013, 05:04 PM   #921
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So did I pass my final this year?
You passed.
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Old 05-25-2013, 05:08 PM   #922
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This whole mess gives me a headache. We will be in Orlando next week, staying at Universal because honestly they are doing more things right in my opinion than Disney at this point. Their express pass for onsite guests works like a dream.

We will be driving over to Disney for three of our vacation days. I'm calling it our farewell tour, because I don't see us returning to WDW because of the new system. I can't even begin to list all the things I dislike about it, so I won't even try.

Luckily, we visit Disneyland every summer as well. This will be our home park from now on... until they implement FP Plus. I hope they never do...
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Old 05-25-2013, 05:12 PM   #923
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Luckily, we visit Disneyland every summer as well. This will be our home park from now on... until they implement FP Plus. I hope they never do...
We're headed to DLR this year, partly for that very reason. They did start FP enforcement in February this year, which is supposedly the first step toward FP+. But I'd say they will want to see how things roll out at WDW before trying anything at DLR. It's a different beast too, with far more AP holders in the daily mix.
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Old 05-25-2013, 05:21 PM   #924
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Originally Posted by fflmaster View Post
Robo, you the man of sarcasm but I will play along.

I know another poster put out an article with details of ride capacity for each at Disney World. I am not going to try to find this article, but I am sure you know it more then I.

From my understanding, Fantasmic has roughly 7900 Seating (after the addition) and 3000 stand by. So I would guess (no hard numbers), that about 1600 is allotted for the dining package. That leaves about 6300 seats. After the recent tests, it seemed to me they saved half of the seats for standby and the other half for Fastpass. So lets now take out another 3150 in seats. The final number available for FP seems to be 3150.

Ok, now how many will be for FP+ and what could be left for same day Fastpass. I would say they allow another two sections for FP+ thus about 1600 to be scheduled with the remainder of 1550 for daily Fastpass.

I would estimate that this is probably very close to the amount of FP avail for TSMM under the current system. If that is correct I would estimate the the remaining FP would be gone by 12 -1pm.

If Disney offers two shows on a night I would guess that it would also offer FP+ for an additional 1600 available. Now the dining package isn't available for the second show, so this would open up a bunch of more daily FP daily. I would argue another 3200 daily FP. In this scenario daily FP would be available to about 7pm.

For me the fact that disney is putting the FP+ option on almost EVERY ride. They expect the main rides to be booked up. Since you have to figure less then 50% of people will schedule their rides 60 days out (Most will probably try to schedule the day before or during their trip sometime). I am expecting that people will notice that they can't pre-schedule the E-attractions, thus using FP+ on the lessor rides, parades, fireworks and meet and greets.

I can't see a way that the amount of FP+ options scheduled by everyone not to have about 50% available during the day. This could be for normal everyday use or the surprise FP. Unless you truly think Disney is going to allow EVERY single FP to be scheduled prior to someones arrival. How many people is this going to upset? Too many for me to think we are not going to have both options.

In conclusion, if Disney follows along this path we should have some limited available FP available each and every day. These may go fast for many rides, but I still think they will be available. My guess is somewhere about 50-60% of what is available today. Rides like PP, SM, TSM and EE will probably go very fast.

So did I pass my final this year?
I am not quite sure I am following. I could use a table.

But, the research shows that approximately 12500 guests ride TSMM a day. What percentage of those get FP is not known, but best guess has it at 60%. So possibly 7500 are distributed and wiped out daily by noon?

Otherwise, I liked reading your "paper".

I have the most difficult time understanding the concept of saving day of FP back. Here is why, if the big selling point is that people can go online to book FP in advance, there better be fastpasses available, and they better be good. If I log in at the thirty day mark and all the FP+ for TSMM or F! Are gone, and now I have to get up at rope drop and rush to the park grab the saved FP I am really going to be irritated.

I think Disney is going to have to make sure the online customer is satisfied...because this whole thing is based on being able to plan advance.

Of course this only applies to a small number of attractions. Most will have plenty available to grab and switch on the day of.
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Old 05-25-2013, 05:51 PM   #925
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This whole mess gives me a headache. We will be in Orlando next week, staying at Universal because honestly they are doing more things right in my opinion than Disney at this point. Their express pass for onsite guests works like a dream.

We will be driving over to Disney for three of our vacation days. I'm calling it our farewell tour, because I don't see us returning to WDW because of the new system. I can't even begin to list all the things I dislike about it, so I won't even try.

Luckily, we visit Disneyland every summer as well. This will be our home park from now on... until they implement FP Plus. I hope they never do...
Unfortunately that wouldn't quite work as disney has way too many onsite guests, front of the line or similar things would effectively equal a constant fastpass, in effect would devalue its use. If much more people were staying onsite than offsite and the vast majority used front of the line (which they would if disney used it like universal and basically shoved it under your nose as a perk of staying onsite), you'd probably be better off in the non front of the line queue, unless they vastly skewed the number of people getting let through to the rides in favour of onsite guests, and I don't think this would do much good for disneys public image amongst all those villa renters for example. Universal can get away with it because they don't have have nearly as many people using front of the line access as disney would, so people don't notice it all that much, and anyway they have NEW HARRY POTTER!(Tm) to pull offsite guests in.

------------------------

DISCLAIMER: HYPOTHETICAL PROPOSAL FOR COMPARISON PURPOSES ONLY, WILL NOT BE IMPLEMENTED IN ANY WAY BY DISNEY.

I think this could have worked, using an RFID system but no pre booking:

Give onsite guests a seperate account on the system based on the magic band with a resort reservation needed, and say six preloaded, generic and guaranteed fastpasses for ANY RIDE per day (NOT prebooked) but no more.

Figure out very roughly what percentage of people are offsite in a certain month. Then, reduce the current levels of on the day fastpasses in that month to whatever proportion of guests are offsite (say appx. 1\3 of guests are offsite, reduce up for grabs fastpasses to 1/3 of current numbers) and put them on a first come first served RFID ticket based system for offsite guests based on kiosks at each ride (similar to old paper system, swipe RFID ticket and get a little paper slip printed out to remind you when your time is), but limit the number of fastpasses to say three or four a day per person.

Onsite fastpasses can be used only once an hour, offsite can't get another till previous is used.

Onsite get more fastpasses than offsite, don't have to fight over them as they are guaranteed and preloaded, and offsite get effectively the same chance at a fastpass as they do now, albeit with a cap of three a day. Attraction to stay onsite, but keeps offsite reasonably happy I'd have thought as they have decent access. I think a system like that might work. Feel free to point out the obvious mistakes

END HYPOTHETICAL MUSINGS. BACK TO REALITY

----------------------

It's a shame they didn't just keep a same day fastpass system but transfer it to RFID. I wouldn't have had an issue with that. Oh well.
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Old 05-25-2013, 06:30 PM   #926
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Originally Posted by bcrook View Post

I am not quite sure I am following. I could use a table.

But, the research shows that approximately 12500 guests ride TSMM a day. What percentage of those get FP is not known, but best guess has it at 60%. So possibly 7500 are distributed and wiped out daily by noon?

Otherwise, I liked reading your "paper".
I told you I was not as good as Robo at sarcasm.

I just think that with FP+ we are going to be able to reserve ahead of time for a certain amount of rides AND during the same day.

In my idea for TSMM, the FP+ would have 3000 available to schedule and the other 4500 to be available that day.

This could be great and it could be VERY bad. I don't have that answer.
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Old 05-25-2013, 06:43 PM   #927
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I'm drawing my line in the sand.

No same day fastpasses
No detailed info by July, no proper wide scale testing done by the end of August, or no full introduction of this by the end of the year
A negative effect on standby queues and counter service wait times. Shows being fastpassed too much.
Too many fastpasses in general.
Offsite being heavily impacted by this.

The above may happen, it may not. But if it does come to pass, and you do end up needing an advance fp to avoid waiting over an hour for most things, its the end, at least for a few years.

I hope it doesn't. But that is my line in the sand. I've tried to be positive, I even decided to try to go next year a few weeks ago despite being aware of this, but the information that keeps coming out just gets worse and worse to me. Fastpasses being extended to shows and counter service would be worrying. Very worrying.

There is my line in the sand. Ill come back to this post once the new system has been running and see if any of the above, or most, have come true, or been disproven. I hope the latter... I really do.

I'm limited in what I can do, I can't go to California, that would be too far, I could go to Orlando still and just go to seaworld and check out universal, I'd like to. But for 14 days, a big cost and an eight hour flight... No, I don't think that's enough. This is why I hope disney can remain attractive to me... Otherwise no more Orlando full stop. And man does that depress me.

The above probably only applies to me. Perhaps its selfish, but we can only say what will push us over the line, not anyone else. And being effectively required to plan rides to get more than a few in a day would push me over the line.

Keep hoping... I will try to remember that. I've always been more of a logic person though, even if I do appreciate magic, and my logic is screaming "BAD" at me right now.
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Old 05-25-2013, 06:51 PM   #928
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I told you I was not as good as Robo at sarcasm.

I just think that with FP+ we are going to be able to reserve ahead of time for a certain amount of rides AND during the same day.

In my idea for TSMM, the FP+ would have 3000 available to schedule and the other 4500 to be available that day.

This could be great and it could be VERY bad. I don't have that answer.
I think you have done nice work. Thanks for taking the time to do it.
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Old 05-25-2013, 06:57 PM   #929
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Does anyone really think Disney is nervous about Universal?! A. They (Univ) can't really expand much more. B. Disney is an empire: toys, Mickey, movies, and the parks. Universal is a hodgepodge of unrelated movie rides and shows. I mean, if you asked for word association and you said the words "Disney World," what first things would come to mind? Mickey, castle, monorail, princess...
Now say "Universal Orlando:" Harry Potter.
That's it. I am not saying that people who go to Universal don't have anything else to go ther efore. I'm sure Universal fans could name 20 rides they love. I'm just saying as a brand, for someone who's thinking of traveling to the Orlando area and wants to go to the parks when they think Universal, what stands out? All they think of is Harry Potter. There's so much more in terms of brand the Disney offers it keeps people coming to their parks.

And either 2011, the Magic Kingdom alone had 17 million visitors. Universal Orlando and Islands of Adventure combined had 13 million visitors.

WDW total had 37 million visitors.

I really don't think that Universal and fear of Universal is driving anything the Disney does or is going to do.
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Old 05-25-2013, 07:02 PM   #930
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Does anyone really think Disney is nervous about Universal?! A. They (Univ) can't really expand much more. B. Disney is an empire: toys, Mickey, movies, and the parks. Universal is a hodgepodge of unrelated movie rides and shows. I mean, if you asked for word association and you said the words "Disney World," what first things would come to mind? Mickey, castle, monorail, princess...
Now say "Universal Orlando:" Harry Potter.
That's it. I am not saying that people who go to Universal don't have anything else to go ther efore. I'm sure Universal fans could name 20 rides they love. I'm just saying as a brand, for someone who's thinking of traveling to the Orlando area and wants to go to the parks when they think Universal, what stands out? All they think of is Harry Potter. There's so much more in terms of brand the Disney offers it keeps people coming to their parks.

And either 2011, the Magic Kingdom alone had 17 million visitors. Universal Orlando and Islands of Adventure combined had 13 million visitors.

WDW total had 37 million visitors.

I really don't think that Universal and fear of Universal is driving anything the Disney does or is going to do.
How about universal (inc ioa) + seaworld (inc. Aquatica) + wet n wild, + Busch gardens? What would that total? Since they come under the same ticket (flexi ticket)

Isn't universals attendance going up? Which means they are taking at least some business away from disney. Not to mention disney losing ground in the key teen demographic IMO. And it is an important demographic in these days of frugal living, all people must be targeted to get maximum profits. Family vacations should include something for kids of all ages. If people leave teens behind, well that's still money disney has lost.

Who is harder to please, a five year old or a fourteen year old? Hard to say, but If you've already pleased the five year old, why not get to work on the fourteen year old by putting in a shiny new land with a thrill attraction to advertise. I'm not talking changing the park to a universal clone, I'm talking adding things for teens whilst keeping kids interested.

They chose to redo fantasyland first, when they should have added a new area somewhere with a little more "wow" factor things for all ages, including young teens. IMO that was a poor choice, fine. But to then choose my magic over something like a new area or land (which could include new things for ALL ages) compounds the error.

New rides will attract people far more than this system in my opinion. It's my opinion, based on what I know other people have said in reaction to universals new rides. I know I'm following Antarctica at seaworld eagerly! After all, didn't releasing new rides keep disney ahead of the competition for years? I get they think this will take things to a new level in a more varied and general way, but I just can't see how it is more attractive at face value to guests.
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