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Old 04-17-2013, 07:47 AM   #76
DaveD
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Originally Posted by AddieAidey View Post
I can see you are a logical thinker but I also detect a hint that you are searching for an excuse to buy-in. Unfortunately the financial sense does not materialize for some time. It's a pre-paid vacation plain and simple. We are buying-in to force us to take vacations because we most likely would not go otherwise. Our kids are very little, so we will have years of travel ahead of us and if we do not buy-in we would most likely go every 3 years or so and would end up in a Moderate hotel or off-property. This ensures us that we will have a nice room and great memories every year

I know its hard to put a value on emotion, but it's something to consider.
Bingo! There's your answer.
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Old 04-17-2013, 07:56 AM   #77
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Originally Posted by sweetdana View Post
. at least I have found a willing/able/ party within 1-3 days so far every time I have been ready to buy since 2009. every yr.

I have used dis for all buy 1 yr and tug for 1 yr..
Can you please elaborate how you do this as you cannot request point transfers on the Dis. How do you find a willing able party within 1-3 days? When I wanted points transferred a couple of years ago, I had to go through the TSS. I think I may have gotten lucky as their emails currently do not show many transfer possiblities.
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Old 04-17-2013, 08:09 AM   #78
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Totally agree with the post (and quote) above (Dave and Addie). If we didn't own DVC we would NEVER be getting a villa with kitchen, W/D, jetted tub, separate bedroom, etc....not on WDW property. We'd have to book moderates (for 5 of us in a room ) or get a condo type room off property...and we'd only go every 3 years or so. For me, staying on WDW property and eating at WDW dining (at least 1 meal per day...we usually do 2 though) is all part of the Disney vacation. Now, flying in and taking the ME (not messing with our luggage until it's delivered to our villa...sweet!!!) is also part of the Disney vacation. DH is not as sold on the flying in part when he sees airfare costs...our Xmas trip is sending him over the edge .

So, DVC just makes the Disney vacation magic for me...our 1st trip to WDW we drove and stayed off property in Kissimmee in a dive townhouse and we ate dinner at local Kissimmee restaurants (chains that we could eat at home...like Applebees) and packed sandwiches for lunch (blech). It really took from the magic a bit. Our second WDW trip, we stayed at POR and got the DP....ahhhhhh, that was MUCH better. But the third trip...2BR at BWV with DP....WOW!!!! And it's been WOW ever since!
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Old 04-17-2013, 08:26 AM   #79
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Originally Posted by lovin'fl
if we didn't own DVC we would NEVER be getting a villa with kitchen, W/D, jetted tub, separate bedroom, etc....not on WDW property. We'd have to book moderates (for 5 of us in a room ) or get a condo type room off property...and we'd only go every 3 years or so. !
You understand that you could ALWAYS stay at a villa w a kitchen, W/D, jetted tub, separate bedrooms, etc WITHOUT being a DVC owner, right? All you have to do is rent the required points from someone. It's no different than renting a studio...just more points. I shudder to think of the money you're spending on DVC and only going to WDW once every 3 years. There is no doubt you'd be much better off financially renting points.

To be clear I'm not holding up a contract. I made an offer, the seller countered and what I posted as an agreed to offer was their counter. I could have accepted it anytime I wanted, but I decided not to.

Anyone who goes to WDW less than twice a year and owns DVC is making a bad financial choice. Yes there are other factors to consider but for me, I'm not going to let those other factors lead me to a bad financial choice. Studio, 2 bedroom villa, etc...it doesn't matter what kind of room you select or which resort you choose. Renting points to stay in those rooms is a far better use of money then buying into DVC....unless you're going to WDW multiple times a year.
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Old 04-17-2013, 08:27 AM   #80
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Originally Posted by LisaS View Post
Correct.

To add to this, you can transfer points either into or out of your account (not both) once per UY.
This rule can bite you in the butt too. I transferred some points to an owner in November 2012 and the transfer was rejected. Why? Because the person who transferred points to the owner in 2011 transferred 2012 UY points I instead of 2011 points so the 2011 transfer was not used and the 2012 transfer was used instead. Since my points were 2012 UY points he could not take another transfer. The lesson is that a yearly transfer is not as straight forward and easy as it may seem.
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Old 04-17-2013, 08:35 AM   #81
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.

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Old 04-17-2013, 08:46 AM   #82
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Logically thinking, what you have said makes sense. I am not a frivolous person, but I did not sit down and think through as much as you have. Some things I do not feel you can put a price tag on. I like owning DVC knowing I can make a reservation when I want without worrying about complications of renting. Put it simply it works for my family. It does not mean it is the best sense money wise - compared to renting. I never even knew about renting points before buying in. We have been members for 5 years bought direct and are now in the process of adding on resale. I appreciate coming here and seeking advice. I think you do too. I wish you the best!
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Old 04-17-2013, 09:08 AM   #83
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The rental argument makes the huge assumption that points will always be available for rent. Yet at the moment rental sites are raising their prices due to insufficient points to meet demand.

As the economies pick up (hopefully!) I would imagine owners will be more likely to use their points instead of rent/transfer. I really don't think you can assume free availability of points to rent. more and more people are catching on to renting and the demand outstrips supply.

I personally would not rent my points unless we hit unforseens. We bought them for the family to enjoy and thats what we will do.

Also we plan on visiting once every couple of years and yes we did all the calculations and we estimate currently breaking even after 7 trips. We might only go every other year but we intend to go for 15-20 nights. It is not how often you travel that matters for breakeven but how many nights per year you stay.
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Old 04-17-2013, 09:11 AM   #84
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theguda View Post
You understand that you could ALWAYS stay at a villa w a kitchen, W/D, jetted tub, separate bedrooms, etc WITHOUT being a DVC owner, right? All you have to do is rent the required points from someone. It's no different than renting a studio...just more points. I shudder to think of the money you're spending on DVC and only going to WDW once every 3 years. There is no doubt you'd be much better off financially renting points.

To be clear I'm not holding up a contract. I made an offer, the seller countered and what I posted as an agreed to offer was their counter. I could have accepted it anytime I wanted, but I decided not to.

Anyone who goes to WDW less than twice a year and owns DVC is making a bad financial choice. Yes there are other factors to consider but for me, I'm not going to let those other factors lead me to a bad financial choice. Studio, 2 bedroom villa, etc...it doesn't matter what kind of room you select or which resort you choose. Renting points to stay in those rooms is a far better use of money then buying into DVC....unless you're going to WDW multiple times a year.
We go 2-3 times a year...then don't go the following year (but do HH or VB with DVC points instead and save on APs)...wash, rinse, repeat. Using APs for the years we do go (started this in 2009 with HH trip, then 3 WDW trips in 2011, then VB trip in 2012 and 2 trips to WDW in 2013 with a trip to HH in 2014...MIL and FIL use 100 of our points to go to OKW every year too). I stated that we would only go every 3 years or so if we didn't own DVC.

Hopefully we'll do 2 trips to WDW in 2015 using APs and then maybe, just maybe, we can do Aulani in 2016....here's hoping.

Last edited by lovin'fl; 04-17-2013 at 10:11 AM.
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Old 04-17-2013, 09:15 AM   #85
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Originally Posted by fmer55 View Post
That is exactly my point, thread was started the 15th, he continued to post on the 16th about why he wasn't going to buy, announced on another thread that he had an agreed deal, posted back here that he couldn't justify buying.

My entire point is why make an offer and tie up a contract that a seller is trying to sell?
I read the same thing. Seems very odd. It is almost as if the OP is trying to convince those here that own that they should not and that they made bad decisions. I am not sure why you would state openly here as to why it is a bad financial decision but in another thread talk about offering, counteroffering and accepting an offer at the same time. Confusing.
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Old 04-17-2013, 09:24 AM   #86
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theguda View Post
You understand that you could ALWAYS stay at a villa w a kitchen, W/D, jetted tub, separate bedrooms, etc WITHOUT being a DVC owner, right? All you have to do is rent the required points from someone. It's no different than renting a studio...just more points.
Your own numbers show that a DVC purchase becomes a "win" after 14 years. (Personally I think it's much sooner than that given the value of the contract itself.)

Nevertheless, I don't know why you are so shocked to hear from members who willingly embrace the savings they will see in years 15-50.

Quote:
Anyone who goes to WDW less than twice a year and owns DVC is making a bad financial choice.
With all due respect, this is a ridiculous statement. It all comes down to how many points are purchased.

Family "A" owns 300 points and goes 2x per year.
Family "B" owns 150 points and goes 1x per year.
Family "C" owns 75 points and (with banking and borrowing) visits every-other-year.

The cost/benefit is pretty much identical in all of these scenarios. The key is simply not buying more points than are needed. An individual who has historically rented 100 points per year for an annual trip should not buy a 200-300 point contract (unless it's with the specific intention of increasing trip frequency.)

Sounds like you've already made your decision. Good luck.
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Last edited by tjkraz; 04-17-2013 at 09:29 AM.
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Old 04-17-2013, 09:25 AM   #87
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Originally Posted by theguda View Post
First off...thanks to everyone who has replied on a couple threads I've started about me looking into DVC. I really do appreciate all the feedback and comments. I'm 99% sure I'm going to pass buying into DVC. I just don't see it as financially a good decision.

The offer I have in hand is basically $10,500 for a 160 point contract with 160 banked points from 2012. Going back to my original post...I can rent points anytime I want for $12 without buying into DVC. So I need to compare the cost of buying into DVC vs the cost of just renting points whenever I want to go to WDW. I understand there are some ancillary benefits to being a DVC member...but we're flexible in our vacation times so I don't expect much of a problem finding the resort we want by renting points.

Looking at it from strictly financial standpoint...I pay $10,500 and get 320 points in 2013 and 160 every year afterward. Again, let's say for the sake of comparison that I rented those points each year with a average profit of $7 per point (I'm basing this # on the last few years of maintenance fee costs vs what people have been renting point for). So on aveage I'd "profit" $1120 per year. Divide my initial cost of $10,500 by $1120 and it will take me almost 8.5 years for my "profit" to match my upfront cost (remember, I started with 320 points instead of 160).

But this also doesn't take into consideration the interest I'd make on that $10,500 if I invested it instead (which I would). If I instead take that $10,500, invest it and get a moderate 5% rate of return...I'd have $15,600 at the end of 8 years. Now my recoup time extends to almost 14 years. I don't consider taking 14 years to recoup my initial cost as a good use of my money.

The beauty of this exercise is that it's easy to compare renting vs owning. Yes, I could use my points instead of renting them....BUT...the difference between renting and owning is still the same. I'm either "saving" by owning and paying a lower maintenance fees....but my upfront cost is huge....OR....I'm "saving" by renting for a larger amt per point with zero up front cost. Either way...the #'s end up similar.

I'm gonna pass on owning DVC and just rent points. For me, it just makes more sense although I'd LOVE for someone to prove my theory wrong because I would love to be a DVC owner...I just don't think it's financially worth it. Is there something I'm missing...a huge error in my #'s that I don't see? Again....I'M LOOKING AT THIS FROM A $ STANDPOINT. I don't have to be a DVC member to go to WDW anytime I want. To me, the best option seems to invest the money and rent points.

ALTHOUGH...if I bought and recouped my inital cost in 14 years....every year afterward I'd realize a massive savings. The contract ends in on 1/31/2054. So after my 14 year recoup time is done I'd still have 27 years of heavily reduced resort stays because all I'd have are the maintenance fees. I guess I could allow my daughters to benefit from this (they could take their families to WDW using my points when they grow up). So that is a pretty large benefit in my eyes.

I know it's not always an easy decision to make. And for years some of us (me) wallow in indecision which is often worse than making the right or wrong decision; at least you learn from those. So good for you for figuring out it's not for you.

I've been to Disney 16 times I guess. Never went as a child, chronologically that is. Started at age 26 I believe. My wife and I, together 11 years have gone 8 times. Once 3 times in 15 months. We put off the DVC purchase year after year. And only last month decided to buy. Last November we stayed at SSR on a friend's rented points and loved the room. For our 17 month and 3 year old the one bedroom villa was it. It's what we wanted from here on out. Pre-kids, my wife and I loved Carib Beach. But we knew we needed more room. And a washer and dryer. For the whiter whites and white noise.

Look, Disney can bankrupt you if you're not careful The reality of purchasing a DVC is that it will cost cost cost; in purchasing it, in dues, in tickets and turkey legs and Mickey hats and chicken fingers and $9.00 Harp Ales. You can talk about break even points and if we go twice a year and charge Aunt Edna who'll sleep in the foyer etc etc. But bottom line is Disney is über expensive. Its a deluxe vacation. Even if you stay at the Holiday Inn Express on I-Drive.

So if avoiding feeling locked in to all that puts you at ease then great for you. You're argument is valid. Stick to it.

Sidenote: I for one love shopping the room rates and trying to see if I can get a deal "on property". I'll miss that if Disney waives us through on our pending contract. I'll just have these points. Like a predetermined roll of skee ball tickets that I tear off and give to the man at the prize counter for my teddy bear (the teddy bear represents the Villa....analogy thing....sorry). No more snickering as I enter Caribbean Beach's Jamaica Building room to my courtyard view that I scored for the parking lot view price.

But I'll also afford my little ones the extra room a DVC villa offers. Thus allowing them to reach full speed when they run into the corner of those low breakfast bar counters. You know the ones. You've seen it happen.

But I digress. Best of luck to you.

Last edited by DaveD; 04-17-2013 at 09:36 AM.
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Old 04-17-2013, 09:34 AM   #88
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Anyone who goes to WDW less than twice a year and owns DVC is making a bad financial choice.
This is utterly outrageous and absurd. People will make different choices for their own reasons, but to suggest that you have to go to WDW twice per year for a DVC purchase to make financial sense is ridiculous and demonstrably false. This is one of the reasons that knowing how to do different analyses, understanding the assumptions and recognizing how to interpret them is so important. You might think calling something a payback analysis when it clearly is not is just a matter of semantics, but if you then allow it to convince yourself that it takes 14 years to return your initial investment, your error has led you to an incorrect conclusion and potentially a bad decision. I always argue against those who dismiss all financial analyses as useless, but I also always point out that I agree that doing those analyses incorrectly is worse than useless--it is potentially dangerous and costly.
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Old 04-17-2013, 09:39 AM   #89
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The rental argument makes the huge assumption that points will always be available for rent. Yet at the moment rental sites are raising their prices due to insufficient points to meet demand.
That's an entirely reasonable assumption, and actually for just the reason you mentioned. When something becomes scarce, its price is bid up. Renters will have to pay more per point, causing some of them perhaps to choose an alternative. Similarly, DVC point middlemen will raise their offer price to attract more owners to rent their points out, putting more rental points on the market. This is fundamental economics. Of course there is no guarantee of being able to get every room type at every time of the year, but that is also the case if you are a DVC owner. But really, it is not a stretch at all to assume that there will always be points available for rent.
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Old 04-17-2013, 09:41 AM   #90
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Also we plan on visiting once every couple of years and yes we did all the calculations and we estimate currently breaking even after 7 trips. We might only go every other year but we intend to go for 15-20 nights. It is not how often you travel that matters for breakeven but how many nights per year you stay.
Great point. Also, your assessment of your breakeven point sounds about right to me.
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