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Old 04-01-2013, 10:52 PM   #16
jdb in AZ
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Originally Posted by mca View Post
If true

Has anyone noticed their launch date of 2018 and 2019 mark the 20th anniversary of the Magic and Wonder. Those ships will be getting tired at that point and replacements would make sense.

The older ships would serve smaller markets like Asia, Alaska and maybe a Hawaii based cruise under a US flag.


For a ship to be under a U.S. flag, it has to have been built state-side. None of the DCL ships would qualify.
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Old 04-01-2013, 11:04 PM   #17
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Alright, so this WAS in fact an april fools day joke.

However! Lets make this fun an discuss the things we would like to see in a newbuild...
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Old 04-02-2013, 12:49 AM   #18
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Originally Posted by maria-fan-22 View Post
Alright, so this WAS in fact an april fools day joke.

However! Lets make this fun an discuss the things we would like to see in a newbuild...
Nice job
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:16 AM   #19
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That they will build additional ships is not so far-fetched. With the high occupancy levels they are currently seeing and the continually rising prices semingly having no effect on occupancy. I can pretty positively say that they have to be considering more ships, that would only make good business sense. They were very happy with Meyer Werft, so I would expect them to go back to them for more new builds if possible, however MW's build books are full for at least the next three years building Norwegian and Royal Caribbean ships. So even if Disney gets in line now, the earliest they could take delivery of a new ship would be about 2016-2018. They may not announce anything for a while yet, but I would bet a pretty good sum of Disney Dollars, that we will see a legitimate announcement like this within the next year or two.
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Old 04-02-2013, 07:52 AM   #20
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Why are they building more when they can't fill the current ships? If it is true, I hope they will keep a ship on the west coast.

Where does the notion come from that they 'can't fill the current ships'? Try sailing during the peak (non-school days) and see how full the ships are. DCL's primary market is "families with school-age kids" and that means spring break, summer and holidays the ships are full.

My guess is one or more of the ships will stay in the Far East. There is a tremendous market there for "The Mouse" and lots of money too. I just spent a month in Singapore and the money there is amazing. Singapore has the highest per capita income of any country in the world.
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Old 04-02-2013, 08:02 AM   #21
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Originally Posted by cwdefouw View Post
That they will build additional ships is not so far-fetched. With the high occupancy levels they are currently seeing and the continually rising prices semingly having no effect on occupancy. I can pretty positively say that they have to be considering more ships, that would only make good business sense. They were very happy with Meyer Werft, so I would expect them to go back to them for more new builds if possible, however MW's build books are full for at least the next three years building Norwegian and Royal Caribbean ships. So even if Disney gets in line now, the earliest they could take delivery of a new ship would be about 2016-2018. They may not announce anything for a while yet, but I would bet a pretty good sum of Disney Dollars, that we will see a legitimate announcement like this within the next year or two.


Totally agree. There is no reason to think Disney has saturated the market with Disney cruise ships.....especially when the entire fleet is in the Western hemisphere. Dinsey has made great inroads in Japan, China and Hong Kong and there are billions of people in China and India and SE Asia that would love to take a Disney cruise. And there are lots of Americans who would love to take an Asian cruise with Disney.

Thinking Disney is going to limit their fleet to 4 ships is like thinking Walmart is going to stop building new store.

20 times more people trust their vacations to Disney than with all the cruise lines in the world combined! DCL will grow. It's just a matter of how quickly.
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Old 04-02-2013, 09:10 AM   #22
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I definitely think DCL knows the can grow, they just have I make sure they don't grow too fast. There is a reason Disney doesn't make incredibly large investments on a yearly basis, it's all based on feasibility studies and market studies. Lots of research goes into things before Disney decides to buy something for $900000000.

But as for ships, I would like to see something smaller than the Dream and Fantasy. And maybe less of a focus on Pixar?
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Old 04-02-2013, 09:15 AM   #23
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mca View Post
If true

Has anyone noticed their launch date of 2018 and 2019 mark the 20th anniversary of the Magic and Wonder. Those ships will be getting tired at that point and replacements would make sense.

The older ships would serve smaller markets like Asia, Alaska and maybe a Hawaii based cruise under a US flag.
Captain Fabian said that he expects the classic ships to last much longer than 20 years, because they are very well maintained compared to other cruise lines.
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:03 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by maria-fan-22 View Post
I definitely think DCL knows the can grow, they just have I make sure they don't grow too fast. There is a reason Disney doesn't make incredibly large investments on a yearly basis, it's all based on feasibility studies and market studies. Lots of research goes into things before Disney decides to buy something for $900000000.
But as for ships, I would like to see something smaller than the Dream and Fantasy. And maybe less of a focus on Pixar?


Exactly. No one can really say if they will or will not be adding more ships to the fleet. If we did know and disclosed it, we'd likely go to jail for corporate espionage. :-) It's fun to speculate and play arm-chair-CEO but we don't see all the cards....

Having said that, it is my opinion that DCL will add ships over the years and the fleet we see 30 years from now will be vastly different than the fleet we see now.

In 1975 when the opened WDW in Orlando I don't think anyone thought they'd grow into the 25,000 acres they now occupy.....well, maybe Walt did but I didn't see it coming.
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:08 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by moomy-san View Post
Captain Fabian said that he expects the classic ships to last much longer than 20 years, because they are very well maintained compared to other cruise lines.

Agree. In 1944 the USS Missouri was commissioned....she was decommissioned in 1992. If a ship is maintained, she can last a LONG time. My granddaddy had a the same hammer for 60 years - he said he replaced the head once and the handle 3 times. ;-)
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:58 AM   #26
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Originally Posted by Rogillio View Post
My granddaddy had a the same hammer for 60 years - he said he replaced the head once and the handle 3 times. ;-)
Ship of Theseus question: was it the still the same hammer then?
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:56 AM   #27
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Ship of Theseus question: was it the still the same hammer then?

Wow, never knew it had a name! Thanks for post this.

As for a ship....at what point does it become more cost effective to scrap the ship and buy a new one vs refurbishment? I'm sure great studies have been conducted to determine this. So many factors....including taxes, depreciation, obsolecance, style.

On a purely cost basis, it NEVER makes sense to buy a NEW car. A used car can have a blown engine and transmission and it would still be cheaper to put a new engine and tranny in the car than to buy a new one. But at some point we make the decision to get rid of the old headache and get a new(er) vehicle.

I would love to see a cruiseline's analysis of this.
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Old 04-02-2013, 12:10 PM   #28
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Princess sells their older ships to smaller cruise-lines (probably european cruise-lines) then builds new ships. I don't know what the criteria is for "retiring" one of their ships, but they don't wait for them to become scrap heaps.

American Hawaii cruise line, which went out of business when tourism took a nose dive after 9/11 -- had two ships, one of which was used for the filming of "An Affair to Remember." That ship was being towed to the scrap heap but foundered, so the towing vessel cut her loose and let her have a fitting burial at sea instead of being cut into scraps. I don't know what the scrap metal would have been worth, but I can't help thinking melting her down would be like an ol gray mare becoming dog food.
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Old 04-02-2013, 12:12 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rogillio View Post
Wow, never knew it had a name! Thanks for post this.

As for a ship....at what point does it become more cost effective to scrap the ship and buy a new one vs refurbishment? I'm sure great studies have been conducted to determine this. So many factors....including taxes, depreciation, obsolecance, style.

On a purely cost basis, it NEVER makes sense to buy a NEW car. A used car can have a blown engine and transmission and it would still be cheaper to put a new engine and tranny in the car than to buy a new one. But at some point we make the decision to get rid of the old headache and get a new(er) vehicle.

I would love to see a cruiseline's analysis of this.
A new car for us is different than a new car for Disney. This CAN be a relatively easy financial question. They will depreciate the value of the ship over time, add factor costs for maintenance and upkeep. They also look at bottom line DCL financial statements. They will want to ensure that investments to the bottom line, like adding new ships is subtracted from the gross profit. You have to also factor increase or decrease of fillable rooms. The more ships they own, the easier it will be to take out a ship. But, with 4 ships they need all of them sailing. With 4 ships, 1 removed could impact sells by up to 25%. If they add 2 ships for a total of 6, the overall loss of cash flow could be reduced to about 15%.

At what point would you get rid of the car that is paid off, looks nice, and has minimal upkeep.

One point might be when the inovation of other cruise lines, forces you to come up with something new and abandon.

It's like the expansions at WDW and other parks. Do they truly need new stuff??? No, but they continue to invest their profits into new INOVATIONS.

IMHHOO
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Old 04-02-2013, 12:32 PM   #30
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Someone suggested we talk about what we would like to see on the "New New" ships.

They need to FIX Evolution / The Tube!!!

Yep, its pretty cool to look at - AND they ARE proud of it. But they screwed it up!!!

When there is a popular nighttime performer, you can't see from the back at all. They need to do a better job of creating "Tiers" even if there was a stage to perform on. We were late to a show one night and even standing up in the booths in the back we could not see. They have those stinking tall tables and chairs in the "second layer" of viewing. (In my mind there are about 4 layers of seating - from the front row to the booths in the back). They should be "behind" the booths in the back.

Rockin' Bar D and Wavebands at least have a stage for performers to do their shows on.

Evolution / The Tube are a more "intimate" experience that the Walt Disney Theater, because the performers can "come out into the audience" and its a smaller venue that is appropriate for late night acts, but the WDT is better at giving everyone a chance to actually see the performer(s).
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