DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

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Old 04-02-2013, 08:42 AM   #16
bobbiwoz
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Originally Posted by Sandisw View Post
Funny..I told DH the same thing....too bad I love my BWV points and am not parting with them!!
Yes, that's the rub!. We bought them direct in 2003, $84 was the price, but discounted to $74, then added on some more, that time for $84!
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:01 AM   #17
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I would suggest that they may have already had that meeting, or one very similar.

Bottom line, this is not a time to buy. I've had six contracts sent to ROFR in the past two months. Four have been taken and I'm still waiting to hear back on the other two (they'll likely be taken as well). Point is, I haven't done anything to try to replace those four...I'm not tying up my money or putting in the time or effort just to pad DVD's inventory.
I disagree on that statement. It is a buyers market, not a sellers market. The prices on the resale market except for BLT, VGC and Aulani are at least half the price of a DVC direct purchase. Sure some contracts are ROFRd, but that is less than than you would think. Only OKW has had a higher percentage (28.6%) of ROFRs and the rest are less than than 10% with BCV and BWV had no ROFRs in January or February if 2013. See wdrl's thread, Percent of Resales Passing ROFR thread.
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:03 AM   #18
bobbiwoz
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I disagree on that statement. It is a buyers market, not a sellers market. The prices on the resale market except for BLT, VGC and Aulani are at least half the price of a DVC direct purchase. Sure some contracts are ROFRd, but that is less than than you would think. Only OKW has had a higher percentage (28.6%) of ROFRs and the rest are less than than 10% with BCV and BWV had no ROFRs in January or February if 2013. See wdrl's thread, Percent of Resales Passing ROFR thread.
This thead talks about the recent activity and ROFR's are taking place left and right!

I hope that other thread has March's stats soon!
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:05 AM   #19
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I believe this is being driven by underlying economic trends. The "at-risk" or marginal ownerships have all been flushed out over the past several years, and I suspect a lower-than average turnover rate for the next little while. At the same time, there are signs that leisure travel is continuing the recovery it saw last year, and probably accelerating. This is also the peak time of year for timeshare buying demand on the secondary market.

The annual cycle will improve in very late fall or early winter, but the others are probably here for a while. Even so, the difference in prices between now and a year ago is not so prohibitive---if it was a sound purchase for you then, it probably still is now. You may need more patience to get through an extra ROFR cycle or two, but for the many thousands of dollars in savings it will probably be worthwhile.

Edited to add: yes we hear about the ROFR activity here, but even when they were much more active, plenty of contracts got through---and at random prices. Continue to offer what you think is a fair price, and be patient. You will be rewarded.
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:15 AM   #20
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This thead talks about the recent activity and ROFR's are taking place left and right!

I hope that other thread has March's stats soon!
I just asked Wil, my DH, and he said OCC has only posted documents through March 25. wdrl has collected the data through March 22nd but he won't update the chart until everything is complete on the OCC website and he verifies his figures. He said DVD has done 26 ROFRs through 03/22 and it is spread over OKW, SSR, BLT, VWL and BCV -- none so far for BWV.
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:26 AM   #21
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I just asked Wil, my DH, and he said OCC has only posted documents through March 25. wdrl has collected the data through March 22nd but he won't update the chart until everything is complete on the OCC website and he verifies his figures. He said DVD has done 26 ROFRs through 03/22 and it is spread over OKW, SSR, BLT, VWL and BCV -- none so far for BWV.
Interesting, thanks for replying.
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Old 04-02-2013, 10:56 AM   #22
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I disagree on that statement. It is a buyers market, not a sellers market. The prices on the resale market except for BLT, VGC and Aulani are at least half the price of a DVC direct purchase. Sure some contracts are ROFRd, but that is less than than you would think. Only OKW has had a higher percentage (28.6%) of ROFRs and the rest are less than than 10% with BCV and BWV had no ROFRs in January or February if 2013. See wdrl's thread, Percent of Resales Passing ROFR thread.
With all due respect, I don't think you are focusing enough on the current marketplace. The data in the thread you referenced is over a month old, and has a one to two month lag time built in. Your statement about there being no BWV ROFR in January and February is incorrect. If you look at the boards you will see that there has been a frenzy of ROFR activity at BWV, with very few contracts passing.

The resale market is significantly different from what has existed for the past year, and the changes have happened quickly. Supply at many resorts is at a 12 month low, there are more stripped contracts listed now than at any time in the past year, and ROFR hysteria has people bidding $3-5 ABOVE asking price which is leading to an escalation in prices. Add on top of that the fact that ROFR activity is the highest it's been in years and I stand by my statement that this is not a good time to buy. That being said, I still feel that buying resale is better than buying direct, and to your point the savings are still there. Just know that you're not going to get anywhere near as good a deal as you would have six months ago.
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:21 AM   #23
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With all due respect, I don't think you are focusing enough on the current marketplace. The data in the thread you referenced is over a month old, and has a one to two month lag time built in. Your statement about there being no BWV ROFR in January and February is incorrect. If you look at the boards you will see that there has been a frenzy of ROFR activity at BWV, with very few contracts passing.

The resale market is significantly different from what has existed for the past year, and the changes have happened quickly. Supply at many resorts is at a 12 month low, there are more stripped contracts listed now than at any time in the past year, and ROFR hysteria has people bidding $3-5 ABOVE asking price which is leading to an escalation in prices. Add on top of that the fact that ROFR activity is the highest it's been in years and I stand by my statement that this is not a good time to buy. That being said, I still feel that buying resale is better than buying direct, and to your point the savings are still there. Just know that you're not going to get anywhere near as good a deal as you would have six months ago.
I don't think you'll get as good a deal as you would have six months ago (or a year ago) until the market crashes again. Contract life will go down, which will bring down prices - but for years remaining, the last few years were a perfect storm for resale buyers.

1) Disney didn't choose to invest the cash they had on ROFR. Like most of corporate America, they were really hesitant to tie up any money in capital, which is what buying contracts is.

2) A lot of people discovered that with the downturn in the economy, DVC didn't fit their budget and had to sell, creating more supply than before.

3) But less demand, because people with jobs weren't certain they'd keep them, real income declined as people didn't get raises (but park ticket costs continued to go up), and buying a timeshare, even for those in secure jobs, seemed foolish to a lot of people.

4) Disney had a lot of supply on sold out resort contracts simply through foreclosure. People walked away from their contracts.

Now, we are getting a lift to the economy. Disney feels they can invest in capital again - they don't have a lot of foreclosure inventory. The people who couldn't afford DVC have been washed out - most of the people left are pretty secure except for "ordinary" life changes. And people are starting to buy things again.

There have been better times to buy resale, including six months ago. But now is probably better than six months from now. Within the next year it will likely restabalize - probably where it was before 2008 - where you could save a little money going resale, but not a lot.
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:30 AM   #24
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There have been better times to buy resale, including six months ago. But now is probably better than six months from now. Within the next year it will likely restabalize - probably where it was before 2008 - where you could save a little money going resale, but not a lot.
if resale values really go back to being around 80% of direct prices, i might be selling...

not disagreeing with most of your analysis. i just find it hard to believe that demand is really that strong at direct prices. time will tell, i guess...
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:41 AM   #25
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not disagreeing with most of your analysis. i just find it hard to believe that demand is really that strong at direct prices. time will tell, i guess...
Regarding the demand for direct-purchased DVC points, DVD recently raised prices across the board. It is possible that the people running the business are complete and utter morons, but that is not the safe bet. Most likely, the people who are in the best position to know the business and its current economics have judged that the demand is quite strong. Raising prices rarely indicates weak demand (though there are interesting exceptions...).
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Old 04-02-2013, 11:53 AM   #26
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I just asked Wil, my DH, and he said OCC has only posted documents through March 25. wdrl has collected the data through March 22nd but he won't update the chart until everything is complete on the OCC website and he verifies his figures. He said DVD has done 26 ROFRs through 03/22 and it is spread over OKW, SSR, BLT, VWL and BCV -- none so far for BWV.
I have read threads just in the past few days where BWV is getting taken so I am sure when updates happen, you are going to see different numbers.

Just in terms of my own experience and these boards, ROFR is certainly showing up a lot more than it had been these past 4 years...I agree it could be the upturn in the economy and Disney going back to it's typical pattern, but for so long, it seemed pretty much everything was getting through ROFR...now, it seems you see more that don't, then do, with our DIS community.
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Old 04-02-2013, 12:00 PM   #27
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if resale values really go back to being around 80% of direct prices, i might be selling...

not disagreeing with most of your analysis. i just find it hard to believe that demand is really that strong at direct prices. time will tell, i guess...
I agree, and couldn't believe how many threads there were right after the webcast where people were looking to buy now and get ahead of the price increase. It was a shockingly brilliant move. The only problem is that soon enough that sizzle will wear off. The good news is that they can recreate the same situation with another pending price increase.
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Old 04-02-2013, 12:03 PM   #28
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...Add on top of that the fact that ROFR activity is the highest it's been in years...
Well it appears as if I just reversed jinxed myself, as I finally got a contract through ROFR (after having four ROFR'ed in February and March). Thus proving once again that when it comes to ROFR, we're all just guessing.
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Old 04-02-2013, 12:07 PM   #29
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I agree, and couldn't believe how many threads there were right after the webcast where people were looking to buy now and get ahead of the price increase. It was a shockingly brilliant move. The only problem is that soon enough that sizzle will wear off. The good news is that they can recreate the same situation with another pending price increase.
I know...think about it..those on wait lists are getting some of the "classic" resorts around $115...ROFR is happening in the 60's so those passing may need to be up in the 70's, could start seeing $80's.

Those wanting smaller contracts now find that the difference, when considering closing, is not enough to make going direct so hard to swallow...

Glad though that you got one to go through!!! Its nice to hear some good news...I feel fortunate that I made it through with my BLT contract just last month!!!
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Old 04-02-2013, 01:30 PM   #30
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Regarding the demand for direct-purchased DVC points, DVD recently raised prices across the board. It is possible that the people running the business are complete and utter morons, but that is not the safe bet. Most likely, the people who are in the best position to know the business and its current economics have judged that the demand is quite strong. Raising prices rarely indicates weak demand (though there are interesting exceptions...).
there are 2 issues though:

1) there is demand at the higher prices for direct sales for primarily add-ons, as has been the case for some time. DVC can pick up inventory primarily through foreclosures. ROFR is limited to a nuisance activity to drive some traffic to direct sales.

2) DVC really intends to ROFR contracts like fiends going forward and use that as a primary source of inventory for direct sales. maybe demand really is strong enough for them to resell 2042 resorts and OKW on a regular basis and that will become DVC's SOP.

but i'm on the "i wanna see it before i believe it" list.
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