Dvc rumor mill - Page 2 - The DIS Discussion Forums

bgraham34 · 03-01-2013, 09:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Missyrose

Tikiman, whose Poly contacts and knowledge run deep, says we're at least three or four years away from a Poly DVC.

I would actually think its more like 4-5 years. BLT opened in Aug of 2009 so that's 4 years since the last DVC building.

Personally I think that Poly might really be 7-8 years out and here is why.
1. I don't think Disney will add another DVC to the resort Monorail line just yet. Unless GF sells out faster than anticipated.
2. DVC actually gets more requests or I should say questions about Poly over GF and that is why they are building GF first. TDO feels that is they build Poly first they might have less demand for GF.
3. I have heard that TDO whats an entirely new resort built but it all depends on the economy and room occupancy rates in the next few years. The rumors of a resort between WL and Campgrounds were put on hold because of the economy.

This information I have is about two years old though so things might have changed.

AZMermaid · 03-01-2013, 09:40 AM

I'm still waiting for another DL property. It seems like they could tear down the Lion King lot and build a dedicated DVC property there, especially with the Toy Story lot off and running now.

TagsMissy · 03-01-2013, 11:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DebbieB

There was also a rumor of a Fort Wildnerness/River Country DVC. Someone even posted "secret drawings".

Yeah... I wonder whatever happened with that.... haven't heard a peep in over a year on this.

DebbieB · 03-01-2013, 12:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by AZMermaid

I'm still waiting for another DL property. It seems like they could tear down the Lion King lot and build a dedicated DVC property there, especially with the Toy Story lot off and running now.

There's a rumor that they are going to build a DVC Tower next to DLH, between DLH and DTD.

luckyman_apd · 03-01-2013, 12:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by DebbieB

There's a rumor that they are going to build a DVC Tower next to DLH, between DLH and DTD.

I would love that. Our trip last year was fantastic.....and the only time we'd ever been to the west coast. I would love to go back again in the future and stay DVC style....as long as the points requirements come down compared to VGC.

bookwormde · 03-02-2013, 05:43 AM

We will likely see the FW DVC phase 1 construction start not long after GF DVC is complete (based on point sales flow requirements). My guess is that Poly DVC (and the general major renovations to Poly) will be between the Phases at FW DVC to not reduce the deluxe room capacity near MK by using undeclared units at FW DVC a fillers.

My guess is that what the do at the contemporary will be for CRO use.

stmize · 03-02-2013, 07:20 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TagsMissy

Yeah... I wonder whatever happened with that.... haven't heard a peep in over a year on this.

I heard that right before the gf was started by a bus driver.

WilsonFlyer · 03-02-2013, 07:34 AM

You know, I have to disagree with what I'm seeing as most of the consensus here. I disagree mostly simply because of the size v. sellout time likely for GFV.

DVD is going to have to get something in the pipeline pretty quickly because, in the scheme of things, GFV is tiny, and will likely sell out fairly quickly. With PV the next logical on monorail conversion resort for DVC, it stands to me that this would already be in motion, at least in the early stages.

The one thing that makes me hesitant on believing this is the longstanding rumor that the Poly needs to be completely torn down and rebuilt because of some sort of construction or wear problems that were/are rumored. I can't remember exactly what they were/are but I'm sure some of you do. That would sort of make it illogical to be modifying existing rooms for DVC. Combine that with the fact that the Poly is exceedingly popular and at capacity (so I hear) most of the time, I'm just not sure that they will add DVC first there like they did at AK (by modifying existing rooms/floors). I know that sort of contradicts my first two paragraphs. I'm just thinking out loud here.

The Poly is a logical next step and it's easy to guess that, IMO, without even having to be in the know. IMO, the Poly rumors of DVC there will only strengthen over time as the completion date of GFV nears and they are probably strengthening due to merit.

Brian Noble · 03-02-2013, 08:09 AM

Quote:

GFV is tiny, and will likely sell out fairly quickly

Only if it is priced too low.

Tim K. has mentioned this before, but if DVC sells a resort out *too* quickly, it only means they could have priced it a little higher, spread sales out over a slightly longer time, and made more money in the end.

WilsonFlyer · 03-02-2013, 10:41 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian Noble

Only if it is priced too low.

Tim K. has mentioned this before, but if DVC sells a resort out *too* quickly, it only means they could have priced it a little higher, spread sales out over a slightly longer time, and made more money in the end.

I know what you're saying but this ticket is going to be Hot with a capital "H" and they know it. GF folks are fanatics from what I've seen, and even though there will be a ton of points for sale, I bet they will go fairly quickly, especially in comparison to past resort sales. We shall see.

intertile · 03-02-2013, 10:48 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WilsonFlyer

I know what you're saying but this ticket is going to be Hot with a capital "H" and they know it. GF folks are fanatics from what I've seen, and even though there will be a ton of points for sale, I bet they will go fairly quickly, especially in comparison to past resort sales. We shall see.

Hot or not, Disney has been doing this for awhile..They know hot to maximize profits. BLT was the most talked about DVC, because it was the first on the monorail. They still took 4 years to sell it out. GFV should take about the same amount of time.

Brian Noble · 03-02-2013, 01:08 PM

I don't think it will take four; it is quite a bit smaller. If the over/under were put at 2 years, I'd take the over, but I wouldn't bet the farm. I might go under on 3.

It's also worth remembering that there are several ways DVC can lengthen the sales run. One is to raise the price per point. The other is to raise the average number of points per room-night. The latter has the advantage of lowering per-point Dues, though, and that makes the resort look more attractive relative to a higher dues-per-point resort.

bookwormde · 03-02-2013, 02:11 PM

Yes GFV is around half the size of BLT so with a better economy I would guess 2 years to sell out. Also there are a lot less other points now, some AKV but they will last likely under a year and no THV SSR points. Also with the big price increase for old resort points less poeple will go that direction.

On the other side FW DVC will be a quicker build since it looks like it will be 4 floors or less and several buildlings.

Dean · 03-02-2013, 02:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WilsonFlyer

I know what you're saying but this ticket is going to be Hot with a capital "H" and they know it. GF folks are fanatics from what I've seen, and even though there will be a ton of points for sale, I bet they will go fairly quickly, especially in comparison to past resort sales. We shall see.

IIRC BCV was around 13-14 months. VWL was even less from when they started sales but they announced it was sold out but then they had to formally reopen sales later. I'm thinking it was over 18 months from when they started sales until it was truly sold out. Disney has a history of announcing sell out before it actually happens, I'm sure to aid in moving on to the next project and to encourage sales to make their statement accurate due to the fear of losing out. Obviously price will have an impact as will the amount of points they have in the system for Aulani and AKV esp. My guess is around 15-16 months but it could be a little less even at $165 to $170 a point before incentives (of which there may be very little). I'm guessing we'll see a formal announcement within the next 6-8 weeks or so, maybe even a little sooner.

dwight16 · 03-02-2013, 02:45 PM

just emailed my "guide" i am on the wait list for 25 more points at BWV or BCV asked about the increase and the possible contract extension for these 2 resorts. He said and i quote "i can not confirm or deny this rumors"

thats sounds like a big fat yes to me. also he said i would be put in at the current price since i am on the waitlist

03-01-2013, 09:40 AM	#17
AZMermaid DIS Veteran Join Date: Oct 2006 Location: Scottsdale, AZ Posts: 800	I'm still waiting for another DL property. It seems like they could tear down the Lion King lot and build a dedicated DVC property there, especially with the Toy Story lot off and running now. __________________

03-02-2013, 05:43 AM	#21
bookwormde Heading out now, another adventure Have a good time, WDW is a magical place Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 5,238	We will likely see the FW DVC phase 1 construction start not long after GF DVC is complete (based on point sales flow requirements). My guess is that Poly DVC (and the general major renovations to Poly) will be between the Phases at FW DVC to not reduce the deluxe room capacity near MK by using undeclared units at FW DVC a fillers. My guess is that what the do at the contemporary will be for CRO use. __________________

03-02-2013, 02:11 PM	#28
bookwormde Heading out now, another adventure Have a good time, WDW is a magical place Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 5,238	Yes GFV is around half the size of BLT so with a better economy I would guess 2 years to sell out. Also there are a lot less other points now, some AKV but they will last likely under a year and no THV SSR points. Also with the big price increase for old resort points less poeple will go that direction. On the other side FW DVC will be a quicker build since it looks like it will be 4 floors or less and several buildlings. __________________

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03-02-2013, 07:34 AM	#23
WilsonFlyer DIS Veteran Join Date: Apr 2008 Location: Eastern NC Posts: 2,949	You know, I have to disagree with what I'm seeing as most of the consensus here. I disagree mostly simply because of the size v. sellout time likely for GFV. DVD is going to have to get something in the pipeline pretty quickly because, in the scheme of things, GFV is tiny, and will likely sell out fairly quickly. With PV the next logical on monorail conversion resort for DVC, it stands to me that this would already be in motion, at least in the early stages. The one thing that makes me hesitant on believing this is the longstanding rumor that the Poly needs to be completely torn down and rebuilt because of some sort of construction or wear problems that were/are rumored. I can't remember exactly what they were/are but I'm sure some of you do. That would sort of make it illogical to be modifying existing rooms for DVC. Combine that with the fact that the Poly is exceedingly popular and at capacity (so I hear) most of the time, I'm just not sure that they will add DVC first there like they did at AK (by modifying existing rooms/floors). I know that sort of contradicts my first two paragraphs. I'm just thinking out loud here. The Poly is a logical next step and it's easy to guess that, IMO, without even having to be in the know. IMO, the Poly rumors of DVC there will only strengthen over time as the completion date of GFV nears and they are probably strengthening due to merit.

03-02-2013, 01:08 PM	#27
Brian Noble His Curmudgeonly Highness Join Date: Mar 2004 Location: The People's Republic of Ann Arbor, MI Posts: 11,266	I don't think it will take four; it is quite a bit smaller. If the over/under were put at 2 years, I'd take the over, but I wouldn't bet the farm. I might go under on 3. It's also worth remembering that there are several ways DVC can lengthen the sales run. One is to raise the price per point. The other is to raise the average number of points per room-night. The latter has the advantage of lowering per-point Dues, though, and that makes the resort look more attractive relative to a higher dues-per-point resort.

03-02-2013, 02:45 PM	#30
dwight16 Mouseketeer Join Date: Apr 2012 Posts: 149	just emailed my "guide" i am on the wait list for 25 more points at BWV or BCV asked about the increase and the possible contract extension for these 2 resorts. He said and i quote "i can not confirm or deny this rumors" thats sounds like a big fat yes to me. also he said i would be put in at the current price since i am on the waitlist