DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

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Old 02-28-2013, 12:38 PM   #31
tjkraz

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Originally Posted by heynowirv View Post
So the answer is yes more restrictions ARE coming.
So said--implied, really--the person who wanted to ease a buyer's mind about adding additional points.

It would be foolish to say that there will never be additional restrictions placed on resale...or benefits given to direct buyers. The earliest DVC resorts will continue to lose value as they creep toward the 2042 expiration date and present a much more economical alternative to direct. And over these three decades DVC will have numerous bosses with different takes on how to approach the marketplace.

That said, nobody I have spoken with at DVC has given indication that additional restrictions are anywhere close to happening.

The timing doesn't even make sense right now. Consider:

* Grand Floridian is preparing to debut, and will not be available via resale in mass quantities for 18-24 months. Direct sale will be the only real option.

* AKV is now over 90% declared (likely over 88% sold). This webcast may be sufficient to push sales within a stone's throw of "sellout."

* Aulani sales are unspectacular but even in the best of circumstances it was always going to be an 8-10 year project. And resale restrictions won't help Aulani.

* Most importantly, DVC sales are chugging right along. Total point sales for 2012 calendar year were down a bit (8%) over 2011 CY but Disney more than made up for that with higher prices and reduced sales overhead (closing DTD locations, fewer costly incentives like free cruises & APs.)

Right now DVC has no compelling reason to bend more buyers toward direct purchase when:

1) They are still putting up good numbers from the uninformed buyers who don't know about resale.

2) Current members still buy small contract add-ons direct because they are so difficult to find resale. Giving a little nudge like this webcast pricing doesn't hurt, either.

3) Direct purchase will be the only practical way to buy/add Grand Floridian for the next couple of years.
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Last edited by tjkraz; 02-28-2013 at 12:43 PM.
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Old 02-28-2013, 12:58 PM   #32
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Was wondering when you would chime in....

Well we all know resales chages are going to happen, just don't know when. I do believe what this guide said about the classic resort prices increasing. Very specific about the date of March 20. Now until there is an official announcement nothing will be believed.As a licensed real estate agent they can't just make up stuff. She did not commit to a date for further restrictions, but she did for the points increase to $130. She cant just throw that info out there again as a licensed RE.



Quote:
Originally Posted by tjkraz View Post
So said--implied, really--the person who wanted to ease a buyer's mind about adding additional points.

It would be foolish to say that there will never be additional restrictions placed on resale...or benefits given to direct buyers. The earliest DVC resorts will continue to lose value as they creep toward the 2042 expiration date and present a much more economical alternative to direct. And over these three decades DVC will have numerous bosses with different takes on how to approach the marketplace.

That said, nobody I have spoken with at DVC has given indication that additional restrictions are anywhere close to happening.

The timing doesn't even make sense right now. Consider:

* Grand Floridian is preparing to debut, and will not be available via resale in mass quantities for 18-24 months. Direct sale will be the only real option.

* AKV is now over 90% declared (likely over 88% sold). This webcast may be sufficient to push sales within a stone's throw of "sellout."

* Aulani sales are unspectacular but even in the best of circumstances it was always going to be an 8-10 year project. And resale restrictions won't help Aulani.

* Most importantly, DVC sales are chugging right along. Total point sales for 2012 calendar year were down a bit (8%) over 2011 CY but Disney more than made up for that with higher prices and reduced sales overhead (closing DTD locations, fewer costly incentives like free cruises & APs.)

Right now DVC has no compelling reason to bend more buyers toward direct purchase when:

1) They are still putting up good numbers from the uninformed buyers who don't know about resale.

2) Current members still buy small contract add-ons direct because they are so difficult to find resale. Giving a little nudge like this webcast pricing doesn't hurt, either.

3) Direct purchase will be the only practical way to buy/add Grand Floridian for the next couple of years.
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Old 02-28-2013, 01:20 PM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BWV Dreamin View Post
Was wondering when you would chime in....

Well we all know resales chages are going to happen, just don't know when. I do believe what this guide said about the classic resort prices increasing. Very specific about the date of March 20. Now until there is an official announcement nothing will be believed.As a licensed real estate agent they can't just make up stuff. She did not commit to a date for further restrictions, but she did for the points increase to $130. She cant just throw that info out there again as a licensed RE.
I guess time will tell. My guide specifically denied any price increase for the classics. One of the 2 is lying or misinformed/uninformed.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:33 PM   #34
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Originally Posted by BWV Dreamin View Post
Well we all know resales chages are going to happen, just don't know when.
Well, depends upon how you want to qualify that.

I would say it's very likely that we see expansion of the items which are already restricted. This has already happened. Grand Cal was added back into Disney Collection, from which resale buyers are blocked. There was a recent addition to the Concierge Collection. And those who only own resale points have been blocked from member cruises.

Disney has every reason to keep improving the areas which are already restricted.

After that, the greatest likelihood (IMO) is the addition of NEW benefits from which resale buyers are blocked. Could be something as simple as a preferred check-in desk, early room access, etc.

Jim Lewis wasn't exactly the most member-friendly leader DVC could have had (understatement of the year.) Others within DVC have realized that removing existing perks / benefits is the worst possible approach they could take. Not that there's a whole lot they could take away. Resale buyers aren't going to be held to their Home resort, or any other restriction of that magnitude.

That said, I'm not questioning the information on pricing. Haven't confirmed one way of the other myself but it sounds reasonable.

What I would question is your Guide's claim (commitment, promise) that you will be exempt from future resale changes. Two things:

1) Do you really believe that Claire Bilby, Ken Potrock or any other DVC exec gave the sales staff approval to take that stance on future resale restrictions with members and prospects?

2) If you do believe that happened, do you also believe that any future DVC chief will feel obligated to uphold that verbal commitment?

Your Guide may be right on the money with regard to pricing but she doesn't know a darn thing about future resale restrictions. Those claims are meaningless.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:33 PM   #35
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I will never understand the DVC resale market. Some contracts are selling for half the price of direct sales. Most people that I know who passed on the resale market did so only for their need to utilize Disney financing.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:38 PM   #36
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I will never understand the DVC resale market. Some contracts are selling for half the price of direct sales. Most people that I know who passed on the resale market did so only for their need to utilize Disney financing.
It's not rocket science.

Resale prices are the closest thing you'll get to a true market value for the points.

Most who buy direct do so out of ignorance. They stop by a DVC booth--get roped into a tour with promise of some free FastPasses and a $50 gift card--and end up paying Disney's prices. They simply aren't aware of the alternative.

Every timeshare is like this. Main thing that sets Disney apart is the fact that contracts do actually retain SOME resale value. Many other timeshares are practically valueless the moment you sign on the dotted line (and complete the 10 day waiting period. )
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:45 PM   #37
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Main thing that sets Disney apart is the fact that contracts do actually retain SOME resale value. Many other timeshares are practically valueless the moment you sign on the dotted line (and complete the 10 day waiting period. )
I wish I had read this 7 years ago before I purchased my Marriot Aruba Timeshare....
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:52 PM   #38
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how much per point was bay lake tower when it came out? how close to the grand Floridian do you all think it will be? also when are they going to start selling it i mean it has to be finished by the end of the year.

also i agree if you need direct finance disney is the only way you can go with out paying insane rates.
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Old 02-28-2013, 02:57 PM   #39
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I fail to see how anyone can think resale prices will ever rise. Every year that goes by are 1 less years worth of points to use on a contract that has an end date. Even if the prices stayed the same over the next dew years, the actual dollar amount you are paying per point actually goes up.
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Old 02-28-2013, 03:02 PM   #40
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supply and demand economy gets better no as many people are selling prices go up.....in 2010 i bought 160 ssr for 55 a point....

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I fail to see how anyone can think resale prices will ever rise. Every year that goes by are 1 less years worth of points to use on a contract that has an end date. Even if the prices stayed the same over the next dew years, the actual dollar amount you are paying per point actually goes up.
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Old 02-28-2013, 03:35 PM   #41
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There is always demand at DVC, because the mouse attracts people. As the price of retail increases, the possibility of Disney exercising ROFR increases. That in turn drives up peoples offer price, because they want to pass ROFR.

That said, there will be a point when the contract length will begin to cause the contract price to go down.
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Old 02-28-2013, 03:53 PM   #42
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Not that there's a whole lot they could take away.
I think the biggest stick might well be the AP discounts, but it depends on who is paying for them. I suspect it is something that Parks is eating, rather than DVCMC or DVD is paying for. If so, there's less incentive to cut it.

Quote:
Resale prices are the closest thing you'll get to a true market value for the points.
Yes and no. It is absolutely true that timeshare is a product that is sold rather than bought, and that these days most who purchase DVC direct probably have little to no idea that resale exists. But, it's *also* true that timeshare is not a very widely-understood product. Everyone "gets" renting a hotel, but until you've actually done some research, it is hard to wrap your head around why a timeshare might be a good idea, so there are a lot of people for whom timeshare might make sense who never even consider it.

I think of it as kind of like the early days of DVR. I bought my first DVR (a standalone ReplayTV unit) back in early 2001, and paid a *lot* for it. Everyone else thought I was nuts. They already had VCRs, why did they need a DVR? My answer was: until you have one, you won't understand why you've always needed one. But, once you have one, you'll never live without it. We think of our timeshares like that. We literally cannot imagine renting a single hotel room and calling it "vacation". We will sometimes get a suite or two hotel rooms when there isn't a suitable timeshare or private-home-rental option, but we consider that roughing it.

However, carriers had an incentive to market DVRs to everyone, and so the market grew quickly as people figured out why they were cool. Timeshare developers only want to market to the *uninformed*, and so they have no incentive to expand the resale market.
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Old 02-28-2013, 04:21 PM   #43
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To my knowledge disney has never NOT grandfathered in changes. If so, could you provide me an example. In all reality we have no idea what guides know, what they are privy to divulge, what they can't. So we only can go by what info the guides release. Maybe they know a grandfather policy exists? We can in no way anymore dispute or confirm what they say because they are in the know, we are not.


Quote:
Originally Posted by tjkraz View Post
Well, depends upon how you want to qualify that.

I would say it's very likely that we see expansion of the items which are already restricted. This has already happened. Grand Cal was added back into Disney Collection, from which resale buyers are blocked. There was a recent addition to the Concierge Collection. And those who only own resale points have been blocked from member cruises.

Disney has every reason to keep improving the areas which are already restricted.

After that, the greatest likelihood (IMO) is the addition of NEW benefits from which resale buyers are blocked. Could be something as simple as a preferred check-in desk, early room access, etc.

Jim Lewis wasn't exactly the most member-friendly leader DVC could have had (understatement of the year.) Others within DVC have realized that removing existing perks / benefits is the worst possible approach they could take. Not that there's a whole lot they could take away. Resale buyers aren't going to be held to their Home resort, or any other restriction of that magnitude.

That said, I'm not questioning the information on pricing. Haven't confirmed one way of the other myself but it sounds reasonable.

What I would question is your Guide's claim (commitment, promise) that you will be exempt from future resale changes. Two things:

1) Do you really believe that Claire Bilby, Ken Potrock or any other DVC exec gave the sales staff approval to take that stance on future resale restrictions with members and prospects?

2) If you do believe that happened, do you also believe that any future DVC chief will feel obligated to uphold that verbal commitment?

Your Guide may be right on the money with regard to pricing but she doesn't know a darn thing about future resale restrictions. Those claims are meaningless.
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Old 02-28-2013, 04:21 PM   #44
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Question

We are vacationing in Alabama, and our iPad does not support flash player, so I cannot watch it.
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Old 02-28-2013, 04:37 PM   #45
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To my knowledge disney has never NOT grandfathered in changes.
When it comes to DVC, there has been one change. Hard to draw a trend line from a single data point.

That's not to say I expect that they won't grandfather, but I also would not bet the farm that they will.
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