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Old 02-27-2013, 07:28 PM   #16
heynowirv
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Originally Posted by Brian Noble View Post
...assuming the Guide was neither misinformed nor lying.
Good point Brian.
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Old 02-28-2013, 07:56 AM   #17
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i just got off the phone with my guide discussing pricing concerning the new webcast. During our discussion, she told me all of the classic resorts were going up to $130/pt.
When I spoke to my guide on Tuesday we discussed an add-on, but he never mentioned a price increase at the classic resorts. The only thing he mentioned to me was that AKV/BLT/Aulani were set to increase on March 20th. He also made mention that about a year ago they had a lot of BWV points and within the past few months he hadn't seen any come available. He didn't say this exactly, but he made it sound like they were purposely holding back those points. I started to guess that maybe there was a contract extension planned there...I'm going to call him again today and see if he knows anything else.


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waitlist....no notification if points become available. To be placed on the waitlist, you have to give your cc and agree to be charged the 10% down.
Do you mean they want to charge you the 10% up front, and then you still wait for points to become available?
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Old 02-28-2013, 08:16 AM   #18
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Do you mean they want to charge you the 10% up front, and then you still wait for points to become available?
No, from what my salesperson explained to me. To get on the waitlist, you give them your credit card number and have two options:

1) They will charge the 10% when the wait list comes through and then you determine how to pay the remaining balance.

2) You give them permission to charge the whole thing once the wait list comes through.

I'll admit that I was toying with the idea of a 25 or 50 point add-on at BWV in the next few months, but I was having a hard time committing at $115 per point (minus a $500 credit), but $120?!?! That might make the decision for me.
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'86, '90, '94, '98, '09, '10 -- Off site, 10/11 -- CR, 3/12 -- Windsor Hills, 10/12 -- BCV/AKV-Jambo, 01/13 -- BWV, 5/13 -- BLT, 10/13 -- YC CL, 5/14 -- BWV, 08/14 -- VGF/BLT, 12/14 -- BWV, 4/15 -- BLT, 10/15 -- BWV

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Old 02-28-2013, 08:24 AM   #19
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My guide said the info on the classic points increase was just told to them yesterday at a meeting. So that may be why no one was told this prior to yesterday.

To get on the waitlist I had to agree to give my CC info at that time. Nothing would be charged until points became available. Again no notification when that happens just an automatic 10% downpayment charged to my CC then subsequent paperwork would happen based on how you were to purchase the points.

I know there is scepticism about what this guide said, but the fact that a definite timeframe has been announced leads me to believe this is more fact than fiction.
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Old 02-28-2013, 08:27 AM   #20
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The increase for AKV and Aulani (to $145) was announced weeks ago by a mailing to members. The DVC Resource Center was updated at that time to include the increase.

IMO, DVD is shooting itself in the foot if they are truly widening the difference between the other resorts and resale prices - unless they are planning on a new round of ROFR at all Classic resorts.
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Old 02-28-2013, 08:34 AM   #21
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One thing I keep hearing is that there are waitlists for the classic resorts. During my phone call, my guide told me there were 30 people on the waitlist for VWL( heard her counting too) for all UY. My specific UY there were 7 ahead of me. Others have mentioned waitlists for other resorts. So, if there are now waitlists where 2-3 years ago there were none, that would give them incentive to now increase the older resort prices. Just a couple if weeks ago VWL was rofred stripped.
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Old 02-28-2013, 09:21 AM   #22
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Originally Posted by BWV Dreamin View Post
One thing I keep hearing is that there are waitlists for the classic resorts. During my phone call, my guide told me there were 30 people on the waitlist for VWL( heard her counting too) for all UY. My specific UY there were 7 ahead of me. Others have mentioned waitlists for other resorts. So, if there are now waitlists where 2-3 years ago there were none, that would give them incentive to now increase the older resort prices. Just a couple if weeks ago VWL was rofred stripped.
Yes, it sounds as though the WDW DVC properties are now reaching the wait list point, just as VGC has been pretty much since it "closed out" a couple of years ago.

I was on that VGC wait list twice - once for quite a while; the second time only a couple of months. And that was when the direct price was $120; now it's $130 and there are still wait lists.

It's too bad the WDW resorts are reaching that stage, too. You'd think DVC would realize if there's a wait list those people are sales just begging to give Disney their money, and would be more active in acquiring points to satisfy that demand.

I mean, if they cam buy back an OKW resale for $60 and resell it now for $100 (and maybe, soon, $130 if these rumors pan out) then why not take that easy money?

I wonder if that would drive resale prices up, since in my example, if you wanted to get that OKW past ROFR, then maybe you need to pay $90 rather than $60?
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Old 02-28-2013, 09:41 AM   #23
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I wonder if that would drive resale prices up, since in my example, if you wanted to get that OKW past ROFR, then maybe you need to pay $90 rather than $60?
1) i expect they'll still differentiate between the "sold out" resorts so OKW should still be cheaper than $130.

2) i would be happy to wager that whatever happens with direct pricing will not drive up resale prices in any noticeable way.
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Old 02-28-2013, 10:01 AM   #24
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only thing that will directly effect resale market going up...will be Disney ROFR more often. If Disney raises prices to $130, then they can start buying back contracts of all the resorts at $100 and reselling them to fit the waitlist need. That will drive up the resale market somewhat. obviously supply and demand will also take into effect. I don't see SSR jumping much, because there are so many contracts out there, but a BWV/BCV contract may see a nice jump.

Of course if new restrictions are coming down the line that may cause prices to drop even more. That is also a double edged sword for Disney....if they come down with more resale restrictions that are out of line, then I would seriously rethink adding-on (as would others)because once the points are purchased they may never be resold at any real value.
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Old 02-28-2013, 10:27 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by intertile View Post
only thing that will directly effect resale market going up...will be Disney ROFR more often. If Disney raises prices to $130, then they can start buying back contracts of all the resorts at $100 and reselling them to fit the waitlist need. That will drive up the resale market somewhat. obviously supply and demand will also take into effect. I don't see SSR jumping much, because there are so many contracts out there, but a BWV/BCV contract may see a nice jump.

Of course if new restrictions are coming down the line that may cause prices to drop even more. That is also a double edged sword for Disney....if they come down with more resale restrictions that are out of line, then I would seriously rethink adding-on (as would others)because once the points are purchased they may never be resold at any real value.
There's no way Disney would ROFR a contract for a $30 "profit." DVD's costs for employees and marketing isn't cheap, so they rely mainly on getting contracts back for free (either through foreclosure or through members giving their contracts back), and will sometimes ROFR contracts at way lower than the $100 mark.
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'86, '90, '94, '98, '09, '10 -- Off site, 10/11 -- CR, 3/12 -- Windsor Hills, 10/12 -- BCV/AKV-Jambo, 01/13 -- BWV, 5/13 -- BLT, 10/13 -- YC CL, 5/14 -- BWV, 08/14 -- VGF/BLT, 12/14 -- BWV, 4/15 -- BLT, 10/15 -- BWV

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Old 02-28-2013, 10:38 AM   #26
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are these people disney employees? why would they send out letters about buying BWV to me and when i call on wanting 25 points they are like its wait list time. that makes no sense. i am on the list for 25 points for BCV or BWV he did not ask for a deposit just said 25 points cant be financed and will go right on the disney card.
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Old 02-28-2013, 11:11 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Missyrose View Post
There's no way Disney would ROFR a contract for a $30 "profit." DVD's costs for employees and marketing isn't cheap, so they rely mainly on getting contracts back for free (either through foreclosure or through members giving their contracts back), and will sometimes ROFR contracts at way lower than the $100 mark.
Normally I would agree with you. But if they have a wait list for a resort those are basically sales they have already made. No additional costs other than processing the paperwork. No marketing, etc. These people are already sold on DVC direct and have even given over their credit card info.

And at VGC for the past year they have been ROFRing contracts with just about that spread, so maybe now that people are reporting wait lists for the WDW resorts as well they will expand that practice to those. Plus if they DO increase the direct prices as rumored that gives them more profit until and if the resale prices adjust.
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Old 02-28-2013, 11:11 AM   #28
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Missyrose is exactly right. For context, Wyndham's publicly reported cost for land acquisition and resort development has ranged between 20-25% of sales over the last six years. Assuming DVD's costs are similar, that $130 contract would have to be acquired for $26-$32, not $100, before it makes DVD as much money as just building a shiny new resort.

And, it is possible that DVD's development costs are even lower, as the land underneath the resorts is leased to DVD, not sold.

What's more, those people on the waitlist didn't just show up on it. They've been taking calls from Guides over the years, going to Welcome Home Wednesdays, doing the webcasts, etc. DVD constantly markets upgrades to existing owners in ways both subtle and direct---and they market to everyone, even though a relatively small fraction of them will upgrade. So, the costs remain substantial.

Edited to add: it is true that marketing costs to existing owners are lower than new ones---Wyndham discloses 32% and 58% respectively---but that just means more profit potential from selling a shiny new resort rather than an "old" one with a higher cost basis.

For reference, the presentation with the Wyndham details is here:
http://www.wyndhamworldwide.com/investors/presentations

If you have any interest in the business behind timesharing, it is worth a read.

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Old 02-28-2013, 11:13 AM   #29
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When we were on the 2/10 sailing of the Dream we purchased 240 BWV points. We didn't want to deal with ROFR and we may be able in time to use them for the things that are currently restricted with resale. Our guide told us we were some of the last to get the points. He called the following week to let us know that between our sailing and the next the BWV points were all gone and a wait list was in place again. We feel really good about our direct purchase. I know it's not for everyone but it was right for us. So...in the span of two weeks we have our membership cards, points banked, AND three ressies in place for the rest of the year.
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Old 02-28-2013, 12:00 PM   #30
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I just got a call back from my guide regarding classic resorts.

The only increases that he has been told about are for Aulani/AKV. There is nothing that has been announced for any other resort. His exact quote "We have not been told anything to that effect. Could they decide to do it? Yes, but it would be an unprecedented move." He also said that no NEW RESTRICTIONS have been announced. Again, he told me all of that can change, but the guides don't find out until approx. 30 mins prior to a general announcement to the public. Also, no announcements yet for GFV as per sales date or point charts.

He had every reason to lie to me, because he knows that I want to add-on and have decided that retail will be the way I do (more for contract size than anything else). I am holding back until my next visit to make sure I decide on the right resort for us. So if he wanted to push a sale, this was his opportunity.
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