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Old 02-12-2013, 12:18 PM   #91
DisneyFive
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Just a general comment.

I'm nervous about the change that is happening with the entire Fastpass system as we know it.

I hope they get this all straightened out before our trip planned in Sept.

I have a number of concerns:
  • The potential limitation of how many FP's you can get in one day. (maybe to only three? Ouch!)
  • I'm also concerned about the flexibility of the new system even though it was designed to enhance flexibility. Sure you can preselect your FP attactions and times before you arrive in the park, or modify them at a kiosk in the park. ...but what about those times where you happen to be in the area of an attraction you like, the FP window works for you, and you just want to grab a fastpass. Do you need to find a kiosk and shuffle around your previous plan? Especially if you are limited on the number of FP's in one day...
  • Will they for sure offer a card, rather than a bracelet to wear all day?
  • I don't know, just lots of unknowns at this point.


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Old 02-12-2013, 12:26 PM   #92
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Just in the tour planning stage and this thread topic has scared the bejeebers out of me!
I hope Disney sees what's happening and fixes this pronto! yikes!
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Old 02-12-2013, 01:13 PM   #93
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Originally Posted by Tormania View Post
Perhaps my explanation was lacking so I will give it another go, I'll take the blame on this one.

Let's take Soarin' and lets say that under normal circumstances that the rider capacity is 2000 guests/hr. So 1000 people get through in 30 minutes. Now we add in the concept of Fastpasses over the last decade. So if 1800 people are in the stand-by line for about an hour wait, let's say that 200 people are able to use FP for that same hour. So a total of 2000 people are now in line for Soarin'. The FP guests are shuttled through the ride more quickly then the stand-by guests and experience significantly shorter wait times. But the entire 2000 guests are still moved through the ride within 1 hour. But the benefit of the FP was that those guests experienced a wait of less than 15 minutes. And we can all agree that is the #1 reason we like to use FP, so we avoid the 1 hour wait and can get on in under 15 minutes.

But this ONLY works if that out of every 2000 guests in line, ONLY 200 have FP, they reap the benefit of the FP as expected. But let's change it up and allow 1000 guests to use FP for that same hour window. And I'll even grant you that all of the new FP users came from the stand-by line so that line is now only 1000 guests, so we still have a 2000 guests for the hour. The wait time for FP has now increased as there are 5X as many guests in the FP line. But for the stand-by folks what should have been a 30 minute wait (only 1000 stand-by guests in line) now becomes 60 minutes as there are too many FP guests being served AND they get first rights to get on the rides per the CMs.

So the stand-by guests are getting false information on wait times in this circumstance, and that is taking into account that ALL of the new FP guests all came from the standy-by line. But imagine that from the first example that there are still 1800 people in the standy-by line and then you add in 1000 FP guests as well. Well for the stand-by folks what was close to an hour wait would become 90 minutes because of all the FP guests.

You can see that as you add more and more FP guests that not only does it make the wait for FP longer that it really negatively impacts the wait time for the stand-by line. And folks look at wait times to decide if they want to grab a FP to come back and ride later or are they willing to get in the stand-by line now because the wait time is short.

Now if we change to what you like which is give everyone a FP then lets move all 2000 guests to the FP line. Now what does this accomplish? It makes the FP wait now 1 hour long and that's if you aren't also trying to get some standy-by guests on the ride. Which begs the question, what is the point of giving everyone a FP when the same wait time can be acheived if FP is completely eliminated and everyone is back in the stand-by line with the same 1 hour wait time.

To me it's really not a complicated mathematical problem, basic managment science really. But like the DDP made ADRs required in order to eat someplace (no more walkins), if they dramatically increase the number of FP issued then the very same problem will now spill over to all the attractions. I can safely assume that the vast majority of guests will hate it.
1) The FP line wouldn't grow to an hour wait because those people's return times are scheduled. In that sense, the FP guests are still in line even though they are no longer standing in queue for an hour or two.
2) This change in the FP/SB ratio doesn't force the standby time to be excessively incorrect. It simply needs to be accounted for. In that sense, it's little different than the error built into the 'red card' method of determining wait time.
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Old 02-12-2013, 01:20 PM   #94
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Originally Posted by SnowWhite607 View Post
I thought from everything I have heard, that they would be mutually exclusive. You can use one or the other, not both. And the number of regular FP would be diminished in order to coerce everyone to use FP+
It depends on how you define 'FP'. It is widely understood that you won't be able to use both the FP+ and current FP systems, but some people are defining 'FP' as 'same day FPs'. If there is a same-day option for FPs in the FP+ system, then the previous poster is correct in that we will have to become proficient at both the prescheduling of FP+s and the selection/management of same-day FP+s.
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Old 02-12-2013, 01:55 PM   #95
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Originally Posted by lugnut33 View Post
I'm sorry, but I don't see how there won't be a tiered system. There is already some what of a tiered system with all the different options for tickets. Why would they make it any different going forward?
Ticket add-ons aren't really a good analogy because that's an unlimited benefit - no guest has to have a worse experience in order for someone else to have a better one. There are good arguments against a tiered system, mainly in relation to total capacity and potential lost revenue as the "second class" groups (whomever they might be - locals, offsite guests, anyone not dropping $400+/night for a deluxe) change their vacation habits in response to a less enjoyable Disney experience. This thread illustrates that very well - how many of us will continue to spend thousands on Disney vacations if we can only FP 3 rides per day and spend the rest of the time in 90 minute standby lines at B-list attractions in order to facilitate a zero-wait experience for the top-tier of guests? How many FL AP and seasonal passholders will renew those passes if they're all but shut out of a FP system that is stacked in favor of on-site vacationers who plan ride times months in advance? A tiered system might generate revenue, but the question is whether it will generate enough revenue to make up for guests who will be either alienated or priced out because of it.

As far as the investment goes, there are a number of revenue streams coming to light in this new system that have nothing to do with tiered access. The bracelets, for starters - a basic version is included, but customizable and character options are expected to be available for a price. Say that price is an affordable $10 each, low enough that families are likely to look at it as a cool, relatively cheap souvenir. If only 40% of guests opt to purchase them that's $120 million in sales (based on the 30M attendance figure being quoted in news articles about the RFID project). One press release mentioned charms that could be added to the bracelets as well. There's also rumors of tie-ins at attractions and characters and there's the plastic factor which some reports suggest is magnified in tap-to-pay applications (people spend more using those methods than they do when forking over cash). Better integration of PhotoPass is likely to improve sales there as well. And then there are applications that haven't even been rumored that are clearly possible, such as targeted merchandise or dining discounts or specials to entice guests to spend more on add-on experiences like mini golf, resort arcades, or other pay-to-play attractions. Even without a tiered system, the next-gen project has a massive amount of potential for revenue generation and of all the potential ways it could make money, tiered ride access is likely to be the most problematic.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:21 PM   #96
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Originally Posted by dadddio View Post
1) The FP line wouldn't grow to an hour wait because those people's return times are scheduled. In that sense, the FP guests are still in line even though they are no longer standing in queue for an hour or two.
I agree and don't agree at the same time. If I get a FP at 10am and my return time window is 3:00pm - 4:00pm I understand that not all of the FP guests will get into line at the same time, they will arrive over that 1 hour window. And there may be no "perfect" time to get in line cause of you get in line right at 3:00pm you may not have given the previous window FP guests a chance to work their way through the line, and if you arrive at 4:00pm then everyone in your window will be in line ahead of you, so to that end it should balance out regardless of when you get in line. My concern is that if they triple or quadruple the number of FP they issue for that window compared to previous years then the FP line wait must increase by the same amount to account for additional guests using FP during that window. It is this that I am most curious about, is Disney currently or planning to issue more or significantly more FP for a ride than they previously have done? To me that is the $64K question, cause that would increase wait times for FP guests and either increase stand-by wait times or discourage guests from the stand-by lines due to known, long wait times. We'll have to wait and see I guess.

Quote:

2) This change in the FP/SB ratio doesn't force the standby time to be excessively incorrect. It simply needs to be accounted for. In that sense, it's little different than the error built into the 'red card' method of determining wait time.
I agree to a point, as long as the FP guests are accounted for in the wait time then it should be fairly accurate. But if the stories folks have shared with FP guests getting onto rides at appro.x a 90/10 ratio than that would have a bigger impact on the SB wait time.

It is funny that some folks have experienced outrages flucuations in wait times and others have noticed them to all be pretty spot on during the same week visit. It's either bad luck or bad management. Luck is just that, but if if it is management then I hope any necessary changes will get ironed out over the coming weeks.
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Old 02-12-2013, 02:51 PM   #97
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Originally Posted by Tormania View Post
My concern is that if they triple or quadruple the number of FP they issue for that window compared to previous years then the FP line wait must increase by the same amount to account for additional guests using FP during that window.
My feeling is that you take someone out of the SB line everytime that you increase the FP line. Therefore, increasing the number of (nonrepeated) FPs doe not actually increase the time that a person waits in SB. It increases the perceived wait time, of course, because that person riding stand-by can see all the 'confirmed' FP guests streaming onto the ride. The trick will be to 1) accurately forecast the SB wait time and 2) keep the SB guests occupied in line so that less attention is given to those FP riders. That being said, if people are able to schedule FPs for the rides that they are interested in riding, it won't matter as much that the SBers are kept occupied because the SB line will mostly be for those who want to ride the ride additional times.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tormania View Post
I agree to a point, as long as the FP guests are accounted for in the wait time then it should be fairly accurate. But if the stories folks have shared with FP guests getting onto rides at appro.x a 90/10 ratio than that would have a bigger impact on the SB wait time.
That will only have an impact on SB wait time (compared to posted wait times) if the wait time forecast was significantly off. This should improve, as they get better at forecasting wait times with an increased FP allotment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tormania View Post
It is funny that some folks have experienced outrages flucuations in wait times and others have noticed them to all be pretty spot on during the same week visit. It's either bad luck or bad management. Luck is just that, but if if it is management then I hope any necessary changes will get ironed out over the coming weeks.
I suspect that it is bad luck. As you pointed out, the more FPs that are given, the more likely it is that the wait time forecast will be off simply because the FPers aren't presenting to the ride in an even distribution throughout their return period. Imagine that 600 FPs are given out with a 1:00-2:00 return time. If these people present evenly, 10 per minute, then return times become pretty simple to forecast. If 300 of them show up at 1:20, the return time forecast is blown.

The new system should be able to account for some of this simply by using RFID readers on the queue. They will know how many FPers present because they will have to touch the reader. They can know how many SBers present using the so-called long-range readers. Given this information and knowing the average guests per hour that a ride boards, they should be able to forecast wait times pretty well without having the lag caused by the 'red card' or the unceertainty related to not knowing when FPers will return within their return windows.
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Old 02-12-2013, 03:02 PM   #98
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Originally Posted by Colleen27 View Post
Ticket add-ons aren't really a good analogy because that's an unlimited benefit - no guest has to have a worse experience in order for someone else to have a better one. There are good arguments against a tiered system, mainly in relation to total capacity and potential lost revenue as the "second class" groups (whomever they might be - locals, offsite guests, anyone not dropping $400+/night for a deluxe) change their vacation habits in response to a less enjoyable Disney experience. This thread illustrates that very well - how many of us will continue to spend thousands on Disney vacations if we can only FP 3 rides per day and spend the rest of the time in 90 minute standby lines at B-list attractions in order to facilitate a zero-wait experience for the top-tier of guests? How many FL AP and seasonal passholders will renew those passes if they're all but shut out of a FP system that is stacked in favor of on-site vacationers who plan ride times months in advance? A tiered system might generate revenue, but the question is whether it will generate enough revenue to make up for guests who will be either alienated or priced out because of it.

As far as the investment goes, there are a number of revenue streams coming to light in this new system that have nothing to do with tiered access. The bracelets, for starters - a basic version is included, but customizable and character options are expected to be available for a price. Say that price is an affordable $10 each, low enough that families are likely to look at it as a cool, relatively cheap souvenir. If only 40% of guests opt to purchase them that's $120 million in sales (based on the 30M attendance figure being quoted in news articles about the RFID project). One press release mentioned charms that could be added to the bracelets as well. There's also rumors of tie-ins at attractions and characters and there's the plastic factor which some reports suggest is magnified in tap-to-pay applications (people spend more using those methods than they do when forking over cash). Better integration of PhotoPass is likely to improve sales there as well. And then there are applications that haven't even been rumored that are clearly possible, such as targeted merchandise or dining discounts or specials to entice guests to spend more on add-on experiences like mini golf, resort arcades, or other pay-to-play attractions. Even without a tiered system, the next-gen project has a massive amount of potential for revenue generation and of all the potential ways it could make money, tiered ride access is likely to be the most problematic.
Bibbidy bobbidy BAM. Well said.
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Old 02-13-2013, 03:04 PM   #99
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Two things I don't understand.

1. When the posted wait says 20minutes, I'll get in line. That part makes sense. But ten minutes later, I can see that the line has either moved half the distance, or not at all. Anyone who has been to WDw beofre would probably havea pretty good idea whether most queues have moved or not.
I kind of don't understand why you would wait 90 plus minutes in a line that's supposed to be 20. If the line doesn't move, I get out well before 90 mintes has passed. I'm not trying to be mean, I just don't understand.Clearly there's nothing forcing anyone to stay in line.


Second, it sounds like Disney have greatly increased the number of fastpasses. Again, I'm not trying to be mean, but I don't understand. If the system is flooded with FP's, then there must be added opportunity to get fp's. Why pick standby if you could have done FP? Surely that was an option. I mean there are only two real FP attractions in Epcot: Sorain' and TT. I've never unserstood why anybody would pick standby for either- especially Soarin'. I can understand not getting FP for every FP attraction in MK - but Epcot? that doesn't make sense to me.


Why are so many folks opposed to getting a fp?
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Old 02-13-2013, 03:06 PM   #100
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Originally Posted by mickeyluv'r View Post
Two things I don't understand.

1. When the posted wait says 20minutes, I'll get in line. That part makes sense. But ten minutes later, I can see that the line has either moved half the distance, or not at all. Anyone who has been to WDw beofre would probably havea pretty good idea whether most queues have moved or not.
I kind of don't understand why you would wait 90 plus minutes in a line that's supposed to be 20. If the line doesn't move, I get out well before 90 mintes has passed. I'm not trying to be mean, I just don't understand.Clearly there's nothing forcing anyone to stay in line.


Second, it sounds like Disney have greatly increased the number of fastpasses. Again, I'm not trying to be mean, but I don't understand. If the system is flooded with FP's, then there must be added opportunity to get fp's. Why pick standby if you could have done FP? Surely that was an option. I mean there are only two real FP attractions in Epcot: Sorain' and TT. I've never unserstood why anybody would pick standby for either- especially Soarin'. I can understand not getting FP for every FP attraction in MK - but Epcot? that doesn't make sense to me.


Why are so many folks opposed to getting a fp?
I don't think people are opposed to fast passes as much as you are limited to when you can pull them if you already have another one. You can't grab as many fast passes as you wish and go about your day.
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Old 02-13-2013, 03:09 PM   #101
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I don't think people are opposed to fast passes as much as you are limited to when you can pull them if you already have another one. You can't grab as many fast passes as you wish and go about your day.
And it's not like Disney has advertised that they have greatly increased the number of FPs. That's a supposition many of us have made based on CM posts here and on anecdotal stories.

And if the OP is anything like me, it's not like they just said "I'm going to wait 90 minutes". After a certain amount of time, it just gets harder and harder to bail on the time you already have invested. You just keep thinking things will surely get moving any second.

It's like the story of boiling frogs. You put them in water, and you increase the temperature. They could jump out, but don't.
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Old 02-13-2013, 03:32 PM   #102
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Okay, yes youa re lmtied to how frequentlyyou acn puill fp's, but agina, at Epcot, there are only two real FP attractions. It's not hard to manage your day so that you can pull two FP's.

Also, if ever I have been to WDW ona low crowd day- and that is what most guests are reporting- the combination of a low crowd day and a glut of FP's- then the FP return times have usually also been mostly pretty close to to the current time.


I mean I've never had a hard time getting all the FP's I wanted, except for a few very high crowd times. The last few years, we've actually finished our vacation with a very large wad of unused FP. Almost every trip since the advent of FP, we've come home with unsed FP. I'm not bragging, I just don't see that it's all that difficult to take advantage of the opportunity to obtain them and use them.

It's not like FP is all the attractions, it's only a few in each park.

Okay, maybe I'm an oddball, but if I get in a line that is not moving. I get out of it unless it's something really exceptional. Abouthte only exception i an think of at WDw is lining up to see a show before the theater opens. I always pay attention to how quicly the line is moving.
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Old 02-13-2013, 03:41 PM   #103
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Originally Posted by mickeyluv'r View Post
Okay, yes youa re lmtied to how frequentlyyou acn puill fp's, but agina, at Epcot, there are only two real FP attractions. It's not hard to manage your day so that you can pull two FP's.

Also, if ever I have been to WDW ona low crowd day- and that is what most guests are reporting- the combination of a low crowd day and a glut of FP's- then the FP return times have usually also been mostly pretty close to to the current time.


I mean I've never had a hard time getting all the FP's I wanted, except for a few very high crowd times. The last few years, we've actually finished our vacation with a very large wad of unused FP. Almost every trip since the advent of FP, we've come home with unsed FP. I'm not bragging, I just don't see that it's all that difficult to take advantage of the opportunity to obtain them and use them.

It's not like FP is all the attractions, it's only a few in each park.

Okay, maybe I'm an oddball, but if I get in a line that is not moving. I get out of it unless it's something really exceptional. Abouthte only exception i an think of at WDw is lining up to see a show before the theater opens. I always pay attention to how quicly the line is moving.
I think the PP meant that often times a person has pulled a FP for another attraction and are not yet eligible to pull one for another ride. Which would be why a savvy park goer still might choose to enter a standby line.
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Old 02-13-2013, 03:45 PM   #104
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mickeyluv'r View Post
Two things I don't understand.

1. When the posted wait says 20minutes, I'll get in line. That part makes sense. But ten minutes later, I can see that the line has either moved half the distance, or not at all. Anyone who has been to WDw beofre would probably havea pretty good idea whether most queues have moved or not.
I kind of don't understand why you would wait 90 plus minutes in a line that's supposed to be 20. If the line doesn't move, I get out well before 90 mintes has passed. I'm not trying to be mean, I just don't understand.Clearly there's nothing forcing anyone to stay in line.


Second, it sounds like Disney have greatly increased the number of fastpasses. Again, I'm not trying to be mean, but I don't understand. If the system is flooded with FP's, then there must be added opportunity to get fp's. Why pick standby if you could have done FP? Surely that was an option. I mean there are only two real FP attractions in Epcot: Sorain' and TT. I've never unserstood why anybody would pick standby for either- especially Soarin'. I can understand not getting FP for every FP attraction in MK - but Epcot? that doesn't make sense to me.


Why are so many folks opposed to getting a fp?
I don't think many guests are opposed to the idea of getting a FP as much as they just don't understand it. I think we often forget on here that this average guest either:

- doesn't understand the system,
- thinks it costs extra,
- is too much trouble,
- just wants to ride ASAP, or
- any combination of the above.

I know I've said it before, but if the barest research is not done by them to understand or use FP as it currently exists, how much will they use FP+?
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Old 02-13-2013, 03:46 PM   #105
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After a certain amount of time, it just gets harder and harder to bail on the time you already have invested. You just keep thinking things will surely get moving any second.

It's like the story of boiling frogs. You put them in water, and you increase the temperature. They could jump out, but don't.
This is exactly it! I have always had a rule: More than 20 minute wait time = use FP or come back another time. But when rides break down (and I know this is not what we are talking about here, but use it by way of a parallel example) and you get stuck there waiting, being told you'll be boarding any minute now, once you've wasted 20 minutes waiting you always feel like if you walk away now, and they immediately start loading guests again, you've wasted 30 minutes with nothing to show for it.

It just sounds to me like they are allocating way too many FPs in a given window perhaps. I hope these are just teething problems that will be addressed shortly, but it would probably be beneficial for anyone who does have a minute to spare and experiences these problems to drop a mention of it in at Guest Services so that Disney is made aware of the problem.
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