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Old 02-10-2013, 09:17 AM   #61
dadddio
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Originally Posted by doconeill

I'm only point out that it COULD be a problem, since it is 100% speculation anyways as to what they will do in this regard - and you are free to disagree with any speculation.

But several people did show the numbers that the attractions do not have the capacity to handle everyone on a given day as it is, and it is quite conceivable that even if they limit selections to 1 E-ticket per day, and give ALL slots to pre-booking, that they can be all taken before the day in question - unless, like I said, the number of people actually pre-booking who are eligible to don't. That could depend on how much the day guests plan ahead.

And whether they reserve some for day-of, or it's just the "leftovers", that doesn't get rid of the "running of the guests" trying to get what's left - supposedly one of the things they are trying to avoid.
As I pointed out back when those people were making those calculations, their logic was flawed because they were making the assumption that all park guests had the ability and interest to ride any specific 'e-ticket' ride. For instance, I like SM just fine, but I only choose to ride it on perhaps a tenth of my visits. My wife has ridden it once and hated it. She won't choose to ride it again. Our children a too young to be allowed on.

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Old 02-10-2013, 09:22 AM   #62
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Originally Posted by Bullseye View Post
Yeah but now that FP+ is coming you'll have to come back during your scheduled ride window... joking only joking

For my family I don't know that we've ever pulled more than 3 FP's in a day anyway so that limit wouldn't be a problem for us, if that's what it is. Plus, if it's like an ADR where I can see a window of times and select then I don't think that would be too difficult to coordinate even months ahead of time. It's kind crazy to have to schedule your rides months before going, but if that's the deal then what can you do.
Then the only issue to you then will be how they will group the rides you can choose FPs for. You might have only used 3 per day before, but if you want 3 headliners, that could be a problem.

Sometimes 3 is not always 3.
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Old 02-10-2013, 09:24 AM   #63
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Originally Posted by dadddio View Post
As I pointed out back when those people were making those calculations, their logic was flawed because they were making the assumption that all park guests had the ability and interest to ride any specific 'e-ticket' ride. I like SM just fine, but I only choose to ride it on perhaps a tenth of my visits. Other guests will not even consider it because they don't enjoy it or physically cannot ride it or don't meet the ride's requirements.
But the differences in attendance vs. capacity were significant enough that it is entirely possible that even accounting for that it is still a large gap. And we don't know how many simply choose not to ride. If the old anecdote that a majority of WDW visitors are first-timers, I'd expect they'd want to do everything they can.

We won't get a good sense of this at all until it is completely rolled out. And again, I'm just pointing out that it's all conjecture on how Disney will or won't handle day-of FP+ so that no one goes in with a complete expectation one way or the other.
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Old 02-10-2013, 09:29 AM   #64
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Originally Posted by mom2rtk View Post
Then the only issue to you then will be how they will group the rides you can choose FPs for. You might have only used 3 per day before, but if you want 3 headliners, that could be a problem.

Sometimes 3 is not always 3.
Yes this is true, but I'm hoping that if it's like a 180 day window like dining is, that if you jump on the ride scheduler at 6 months out, it should be no problem getting a ride time near the time you want to go. You just have to be proactive.
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Old 02-10-2013, 09:35 AM   #65
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Originally Posted by mom2rtk

Then the only issue to you then will be how they will group the rides you can choose FPs for. You might have only used 3 per day before, but if you want 3 headliners, that could be a problem.

Sometimes 3 is not always 3.
Until more information is released, we don't know that FP+s will be grouped for selection, at all. So far, that's just more speculation.
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Old 02-10-2013, 10:08 AM   #66
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Originally Posted by dadddio View Post
Until more information is released, we don't know that FP+s will be grouped for selection, at all. So far, that's just more speculation.
But that speculation is at least based on testing they've been doing for 5 years Every test has been tiered.
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Old 02-10-2013, 10:17 AM   #67
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Originally Posted by doconeill

But that speculation is at least based on testing they've been doing for 5 years Every test has been tiered.
I'm not sure that this is correct. For one thing, the system that runs FP+ hasn't been around for five years. Also, according to one recent post (which might have been made by you), they only just now about to run the first full system test. Lastly, it would not at all be extraordinary if early testing does not look much like a final product.
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Old 02-10-2013, 10:23 AM   #68
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We did the give a day get a day program in 2010. We chose the fastpasses. They were on the tiered program but were not prebooked. After I began hearing about the new fastpass + I knew we were test subjects also. Those were really nice but we had access to the regular fastpasses also. All the speculation now is killing me because we are going the first of April. We are staying at all star sports so I am not counting on being part of the current test bank but on the same hand we don't know how fast things are going to move. Sigh.
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Old 02-10-2013, 10:49 AM   #69
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Originally Posted by dadddio View Post
I'm not sure that this is correct. For one thing, the system that runs FP+ hasn't been around for five years. Also, according to one recent post (which might have been made by you), they only just now about to run the first full system test.
Yes, I posted that it looks like they are able to start testing the "full system" - that is, the use of MagicBands along with FP+, touch-to-pay, etc.

They've been testing FP+ itself for at least the past year, with limited, tiered selections at every test, including the most recent one just over a month ago.

Prior to that, there was the Birthday Fastpass cards in 2009, and the Give A Disney Day Fastpass cards in 2010. Both were limited, tiered selections - their first real tests of how tiered selections would be used by guests.

And even before that, from 2006-2008, there were the Dream Fastpasses, which might have been the earliest test of some sort of change in the system, but it wasn't tiered - it was simply one-per-attraction, use anytime system. If it WAS a test, it was a system they decided against, or it gave them their first data in order to determine what guests would select to definitely use vs. throw away (we only used two of the six at AK).

Now, the biggest difference in any of these tests from the way FP+ is currently advertised to work is that in all cases, you could still use regular Fastpasses. We know that isn't going to happen now - which is why there is a lot of hope that day-of FP+ will still be available.

But if they want to have a chance at keeping enough FP+ on E-tickets for day-of use (assuming none held in reserve), they would likely need to limit peoples choices by tiering.

You mentioned expanding the number of FPs per attraction - that's assuming they aren't already using the maximum practical amount to keep the attraction operating at peak efficiency. The theoretical maximum is, of course, 100%, but it is impractical since they give you at least some leeway to return, and therefore there would be natural ebbs in the flow - at times less than 100% of the guests needed to use all the seats/slots/etc., and at times more (causing the FP line to have delays) and making the standby line irrelevant. So there is a more practical maximum such that most of the guests use the FP line but the standby line still moves reasonably.
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Old 02-10-2013, 11:55 AM   #70
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Originally Posted by doconeill
But if they want to have a chance at keeping enough FP+ on E-tickets for day-of use (assuming none held in reserve), they would likely need to limit peoples choices by tiering.
That is supposition. You and I have no idea whether tiering would be necessary for this purpose, or not.
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Old 02-10-2013, 12:05 PM   #71
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That is supposition. You and I have no idea whether tiering would be necessary for this purpose, or not.
So is everything else in this thread except the OP's initial question which was answered. Since every post I make is met with you saying "That is supposition", which I have made clear, there is no need to continue with this thread.
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Old 02-10-2013, 12:12 PM   #72
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Every FP+ related thread doesn't have to be a potpourri of unsubstantiated supposition. Continuing to repeat these guesses buries what is actually known and confuses those who haven't waded through what has actually been released. Therefore, it is important to note when things are not known to be true and where people's conclusions seem to be inaccurate
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Old 02-10-2013, 12:19 PM   #73
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Every FP+ related thread doesn't have to be a potpourri of unsubstantiated supposition. Continuing to repeat these guesses buries what is actually known and confuses those who haven't waded through what has actually been released. Therefore, it is important to note when things are not known to be true and where people's conclusions seem to be inaccurate
The tiering is hardly "unsubstantiated supposition" or "guesses" when Disney's been testing tiered FPs for several years, which is why I say it is likely but by know means certain. Heck, FP+ hasn't been rolled out yet, so therefore it isn't certain it will ever be. Disney HAS announced things and never followed through. So by that vein you should be arguing that FP+ actually happening is supposition.
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Old 02-10-2013, 12:44 PM   #74
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Yes this is true, but I'm hoping that if it's like a 180 day window like dining is, that if you jump on the ride scheduler at 6 months out, it should be no problem getting a ride time near the time you want to go. You just have to be proactive.
I do think that if you're proactive and schedule the high demand rides at the earliest possible moment, you should be fine. Especially for the first months or even year that this rolls out and your average visitor doesn't know about FP+ or understand the importance of actually following through.

But same day adjustments? I imagine this will be like dining (at venue like LeCellier, BOG or CRT) and your odds of a same day adjustment on TSMM or Soarin (and a few others) are one step above zero.
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Old 02-10-2013, 01:03 PM   #75
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The tiering is hardly "unsubstantiated supposition" or "guesses" when Disney's been testing tiered FPs for several years, which is why I say it is likely but by know means certain. Heck, FP+ hasn't been rolled out yet, so therefore it isn't certain it will ever be. Disney HAS announced things and never followed through. So by that vein you should be arguing that FP+ actually happening is supposition.
There's a rather huge difference between guesses about how the system will work and the odds that a system that is clearly being rolled out is going to be trashcanned.
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