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Old 02-04-2013, 01:06 PM   #16
hopemax
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bcrook View Post

E-ticket FP+ allotment
Peter Pan - 35,000
Little Mermaid 35,000
Total - 124,000

Second tier allotment
Pirates of Caribbean - 35,000
Haunted Mansion - 35,000
Ranger Spin - 35,000
Winnie the Pooh - 35,000
Sorry, where are these numbers coming from? Are they your own speculations? I don't know specifics for the dark rides, but I think they are less than 1000 people per hour. The dispatch time is much slower than, say HM. So 8000, maybe 10,000 people for 10 hours. So it's very unlikely FP will be distributed in the same volume as the Omnimovers.

I did find this comment over on WDW Magic from 2004 by a former CP in Fantasyland

Quote:
Contrary to popular belief, the OHRC is not that much smaller on Peter Pan. I believe it's about 800 people per hour, which is slightly less than other Fantasyland attractions (Pooh - 850, Teacups - 864, Snow - 920, Philhar - 1500, etc.). Dumbo is a lot lower, around 550.
Of course, we can double Dumbo's numbers now.
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Old 02-04-2013, 02:00 PM   #17
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From another website

Expedition Everest

Quote:
Capacity: Up to five six-car trains of 34 passengers each in 17 two-person rows (the last row features seating for disabled guests); typically five trains are in operation, with a projected operational hourly ride capacity (OHRC) of 2,050 riders per hour with five trains or 1,850 per hour with four trains.
From WDWMagic, several different posts that Splash is 1800 per hour
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Old 02-04-2013, 02:24 PM   #18
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These are very helpful posts, hopemax. - your OHRC on a lot of these attractions are probably still pretty accurate, even though they are 'dated'.. And it was nice to take a trip down memory lane when you listed some of the old beauties at Epcot. Food Rocks fascinated my kids when they were little, and I liked it too!

Regarding your comment on the 'crisis' that may be incurred with this new system. I humbly submit that you are thinking like a vetran, and not joe disney goer - first time or very infrequent, or very limited knowledge on Disney. I dont think this system is to satisfy us, but its to make the general larger majority a little happier. They may be thrilled to score Haunted Mansion and Small world as their 2 FP choices, because they really dont know any better? Hypothosis on my part, and I suppose you would have to know how big the middle section of the bell curve people this is going to appeal too. Maybe there are more educated users out there then I give credit for.

I've also really enjoyed reading some of the sophisticated threads on this board, and its really opened my eyes. For some reason I thought I knew why Disney was spending their billion (vain girl!) that is data, crowd control, crowd dispersment, promotion and joe blow customer satisfaction. But after reading Rustys thread on RFID's, I now realize that perhaps the golden goose in all this is Merchandise and sales! (What exactly is skimming lockedoutlogic?)

I have also been reflecting on my Counter Service FP+ to eventually take over one entire tier of the FP+, but there is a big old hole in that idea. Although counterservice places may be typically be open the entire 'park' day - you will not get joe public to book his lunch meal at 10:20 am, or 3:20 pm. Ie, much more limited usable FP+ allotment for CS places, because they are 'time of day' driven.

I did find a few old FP kicking around in my Disney box, and it seems that the lowest common denominator is 5 minutes from my Buzz FP. However, I seem to recall some TSM tickets starting at weird times like 10:22, but am not 100% sure. If anyone has imput on this, I would love to hear it.

TY for the responses!

~A
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Old 02-06-2013, 09:02 AM   #19
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Ok, here goes an attempt at fast pass+ calculations for the magic Kingdom: I am going to post this in 2 parts, as its long, and perhaps boring.

Premise:
I am making some major assumptions, which could very much render any and all data and conclusions irrelevant. I have no ‘inside’ knowledge whatsoever, just a little research on the data that is available on the internet. I will try and explain any reasoning I use when I pick numbers, hours, attractions, percentages ect, so you can determine if you think there is any value in my conclusions.

Background Stats:

(I suppose here is a good place to say, there are lies, damned lies, and statistics – Mark Twain)

1. Yearly attendance at MK in 2008 was 17063000 giving a daily attendance average figure of 46747 per day. Yearly MK attendance in 2010 was down a little, 16972000 – making the average daily attendance, 46498 per day

2. Maximum capacity of MK is said to be 100,000 as per google search.

3. Daily Hours at MK on average – right, I looked at the dis calendar for the MK from Jan – April, at although there were a very few 9-8’s, it was mostly 9-10 or more (spring break, Easter, and the early part of January that is part of the xmas break frequently had 8am-1am)

4. Right now Disney is saying there will be 3FP+ for every guest using the system. Assuming that EVERYONE who enters the park is using FP+, that means at Peak season, MK needs 300,000 FP+ available, and using 2008 figures, a daily total of 140,241 FP+ on average

5. % of FP+ available at any given attraction: This is a bit of a stumper for me, so I am going to forward 3 scenarios 1) 16.6% (assuming that 10 minutes out of every hour is equivalent to 1/6 of the total hourly FP+, i.e. – I frequently only wait about 10 minutes upon entering the FP que before getting on the attraction, therefore THAT is THE percentage of number of people ahead of me in the fp que working with the standby line) 2) 33.33% (assuming that you generally wait 20 minutes in the fp que) 3) 50% (assuming a half an hour wait is typical in fast pass line). Is this assumption valid? I don’t know, but it sounds logical spock.

Additional Background information and assumptions:

1. As per some internet searches on several websites, during the testing phase of FP+, these were the attractions available for picks: Space, Splash Pooh, Pan, Mickeys Philharmagic, Buzz, Jungle Cruise, Meet the Princesses, Meet Mickey, Haunted mansion. These were split into 2 groups, but I cannot get the definitive answer on which were where. So, I am guessing a little, although I did have a solid report that Space and Splash were on one side, and Peter Pan and Pooh on the other side. Notice BTMRR is not on the list, and this is no where near all the attractions and interactive fp+s that will be available when this goes online.

2. OHRC numbers are ones that have been found on various internet sites coming from a solid source. If this is not the case, then I will note it per attraction. The character meets I have absolutely no knowledge or education on them at this time (we never do them, so its out of my personal experience too)– its a very weak link in this hypothesis. However, I will say that there are 2 knowns about these character meets 1) slow process and most likely low daily numbers. 2) Mickey and the princesses only appear in one place at one time, Disney choreographs this, and this is still a fact to the best of my knowledge.

3. Attraction Variables: Each attraction is unique, so giving all attractions a ‘percentage’ of FP+ is not actually accurate. I am positive each attraction has its own percentage of fp available, taking into accounts different variables like: ride reliability, how it handles handicap riders (does the ride stop, or can continue in continuous loop?) are there frequent incursions, where the FP line meets the standby line, ect. I am hoping that it ‘all comes out in the wash’ with an average, especially since OHRC’s are based on some of these variables, the rides can easily and frequently exceed the OHRC’s.

4. FP+ staggering: I am going to say that FPs come out in 5 minute intervals, allowing for 12 intervals per hour. Its possible that they can or will stagger this at a lower common denominator, or that some attractions will. Here is a big old assumption on my part regarding these intervals: Now that Disney is enforcing the 1 hr rule, guests will generally enter the line as soon as they are allowed to do so, on average. This staggering will allow Disney to really max out the FP %, because crowd flow will be very efficient. (again – maybe not accurate, but the assumption I am working with.)

Facts and Equations

1. I am going to use 9am to 11pm for the average park hours of the MK, making it 14 hrs. I did not average out all the hours. If someone wants to work out the average from Jan to April, I will use that number. But as it is, there is enough math for me to conquer (and as you know, math is not my forte).

2. I am going to use the 2008 numbers, and the average daily number of 46747, meaning the requirement of 140241 fp+ available.

3. OHRCs
Space: 2500
Splash: 1800
Pooh: 850
Pan: 800
Philharmagic: 1500
Jungle cruise: 1700 (got this off a blog, not a great source)
Haunted Mansion: 3600
Meet Mickey: no idea so here is a ‘flyer’ – lets say Mickey can do 1 group per minute, and the group consists of 4 people ohrc is 240. Is this way low?? Could there be 2 mickeys if they are in enclosed areas and not visable to the GP? I think that is contrary to walt, but how are they going to fp mickey at the MK with only 1 mickey available at any given minute????
Meet Princesses: Touring plans says there is a rotating cast of 3 princesses at the MK: so 3x4x60 is 720

Part 2 to follow eventually.
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Old 02-06-2013, 12:44 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rileygirl View Post
Meet Mickey: no idea so here is a ‘flyer’ – lets say Mickey can do 1 group per minute, and the group consists of 4 people ohrc is 240. Is this way low?? Could there be 2 mickeys if they are in enclosed areas and not visable to the GP? I think that is contrary to walt, but how are they going to fp mickey at the MK with only 1 mickey available at any given minute????
The new designs for these meet n greets have made it so they can have 2 or 3 M&Gs running at once. For a popular one such as Mickey or the Princesses, you can assume there are two sets of M&Gs. (The new one in the old SWA will clearly have this as well.)
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Old 02-06-2013, 04:01 PM   #21
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Thanks Skier Pete, that gives me a little more to go on.

I just realized I did not do Buzz lightyear, and after searching for a while, I have yet to come up with any number at all. I expect this is a high capacity easy loading ride, but no numbers. Still searching.

However, I came across an interesting site that I have never visited before, and it gave a breakdown of Choice #1 and Choice #2 for the MK for the Dec 15th FP+ test. I am not sure if I can list the site on here, but I will cut and paste that little section of the podcast site.

Group 1
•Big Thunder Mountain Railroad
•Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin
•Disney Princesses at Town Square Theater
•Enchanted Tales with Belle
•Main Street Electrical Parade
•Mickey Mouse at Town Square Theater
•Peter Pan’s Flight
•Space Mountain
•Splash Mountain
•Wishes Nighttime Spectacular

Group 2 (Choose 2):
•Celebrate a Dream Come True Parade
•Dumbo the Flying Elephant
•Haunted Mansion
•Jungle Cruise
•Mickey’s PhilharMagic
•Monster’s Inc Laugh Floor
•The Barnstormer
•The Magic Carpets of Aladdin
•The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh
•Under the Sea: Journey of the Little Mermaid

All three mountains are listed under one catagory (darn). And, as they noted and I agree - its weird that POtc is not in there, or small world. However, these lists and breakdowns look a lot more comprehensive then the summer test breakdown. Notice that is says, choose 2 from group 2? hmmm

I keep getting sucked into these different disneyfan or info sites, and waste a lot of time. Its been an education though, I will say that.
I am going to revise my previous post to include this new info, and add every OHRC that I can find (I only try and use cm chatter for this, but obviously this wont work for them all). And the parades and fireworks are a big unknown too. I will try and fill in as many blanks as possible though. It may take a couple of days.

With just basic calculations that I have so far though, I dont think the 3fp+ rule is going to have any issue at the MK, even at maximum capacity, as there are so many attractions and events, and the hours are so long. It will be another story at Epcot and AK though. Epcot for its limited 'attractions', and AK for short hours, and only 1 parade, and few attractions.

Edited to add: Well, crap, it looks like these calculations have already been done, and by someone who can do math. Here is a cut and paste of a certain section of wdw fan boys podcast website (hope listing the words is ok with the mods, but with this info, you really have to give them credit. After briefly reading it, I am not sure if its them, or JIm hill that came out with these calculations (I always thought Jim was a bit of a wingnut, but maybe I am wrong!) Here is the cut and paste of the pertinent info

he amount of Fastpasses distributed per every 5 minute interval is not public information, but this number is estimated at 5% of an attraction’s hourly capacity. This means that starting 40 minutes after park opening, 60% of an attraction’s hourly capacity is distributed as Fastpasses.
•Depending on the park, attendance, and the results of the test in May it is speculated that each guest will receive access to 2-4 Fastpass+ attractions per day
•Attendance at the Magic Kingdom in 2010 was 16,972,000 or an average of 46,499 guests per day
•The estimated hourly capacity of the 8 current Fastpass attractions (Jungle Cruise, Splash Mountain, Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, Peter Pan’s Flight, The Many Adventures of Winnie the Pooh, Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin, Space Mountain, Town Square Theater) at the Magic Kingdom is 9550 per hour
•An average attendance day at the Magic Kingdom will see 13 hours of operation: 9:00 AM – 10:00 PM
•A 13 hour day will have 148 Fastpass Intervals of 5 minutes each (13 hours x 12 five minute intervals per hour less 8 intervals at the start of the day)
•With every attraction operating, the estimated maximum Fastpass distribution during a 13 hour day at the Magic Kingdom is 70,670.
•This means that up to 56.92% of total rides on the 8 Current Fastpass attractions can be done through the Fastpass system. Assuming that the 5% number is correct, this percentage is accurate regardless of whether or not the attraction capacity numbers are correct. If the number changes to 4% then the percentage changes to 45.54%, and at 6% the percentage changes to 68.31%
•The addition of the other attractions and premium entertainment viewing can potentially bring the daily Fastpass+ availability to 237,450 per day. This would include all of the Fantasyland expansion being open as well as premium viewing for a daytime parade, a nighttime parade and a fireworks show.
•With 46,499 guests in the park, and each guest entitled to 4 Fastpass+ attractions, 185,995 of the 237,450 available Fastpasses can be distributed via Fastpass+.
•This would mean that 78.3% of Fastpasses could potentially be booked prior to guests entering the park. If each guest can book 3 Fastpass+ attractions the percentage drops to 58.73% and if each guest can reserve 2 attractions the percentage drops to 39.15%.
•The corresponding numbers are significantly less favorable at the Animal Kingdom but that is subject to change with the addition of World of Avatar. The numbers are comparable at Epcot, and slightly more favorable at Hollywood Studios


Barry, this looks like some pretty solid figuring, even taking into account the 5 minute staggering and the 40 minute delay (which I totally forgot about).
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Old 02-06-2013, 04:53 PM   #22
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Will have to check my stash, but I am pretty sure I remember pulling FPs for extended family group and watching the return time jump by 5 min increment more than once.
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Old 02-08-2013, 10:43 AM   #23
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OHRC's for the following attractions, if known, or explained how I made them up.

Group 1
•Big Thunder Mountain Railroad 2200? (guestimate based off of splash and space)
•Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin 2000? (guess based on the fact that I think its far less then POTC and HM, but more then jungle cruise)
•Disney Princesses at Town Square Theater 720
•Enchanted Tales with Belle ?
•Main Street Electrical Parade?
•Mickey Mouse at Town Square Theater 500 if 2 mice are working?
•Peter Pan’s Flight 800
•Space Mountain 2500
•Splash Mountain 1800
•Wishes Nighttime Spectacular ?

Lets just add up the known (a term I use loosely) numbers. 2200+2000+720+500+800+2500+1800= 10520
Lets use 13 hrs as the average so
16.6% is 22702
33% is 45582
50% is 68380
60% is 82056

I know some of the OHRC's I made up could be way off , but these numbers do not include the biggie of Wishes or the daytime parade. Logically speaking, the above numbers could be significantly higher.

I am not even going to bother with group 2. I think its apparent that MK will have no issue with coming up with the minimum 3 fp+ for every park goer, even at peak season. You can argue that not everyone will use the FP+ system, and I will agree with that, however, I think Disney needs to be able to produce that number if only on paper, in case the system needs to be able to do that. Just sayin.

What is of more interest perhaps, is how will AK be able to do this, with a 9-5 hr day? I think I will try and get some info on them, or epcot (I think Ive got the big three OHRCs from cm chatter on another board saved somewhere).

I have some time to play, we are snowed in and housebound. Its unbelievable!
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Old 02-08-2013, 04:58 PM   #24
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rileygirl View Post
OHRC's for the following attractions, if known, or explained how I made them up.

Group 1
•Big Thunder Mountain Railroad 2200? (guestimate based off of splash and space)
•Buzz Lightyear’s Space Ranger Spin 2000? (guess based on the fact that I think its far less then POTC and HM, but more then jungle cruise)
•Disney Princesses at Town Square Theater 720
•Enchanted Tales with Belle ?
•Main Street Electrical Parade?
•Mickey Mouse at Town Square Theater 500 if 2 mice are working?
•Peter Pan’s Flight 800
•Space Mountain 2500
•Splash Mountain 1800
•Wishes Nighttime Spectacular ?

Lets just add up the known (a term I use loosely) numbers. 2200+2000+720+500+800+2500+1800= 10520
Lets use 13 hrs as the average so
16.6% is 22702
33% is 45582
50% is 68380
60% is 82056

I know some of the OHRC's I made up could be way off , but these numbers do not include the biggie of Wishes or the daytime parade. Logically speaking, the above numbers could be significantly higher.

I am not even going to bother with group 2. I think its apparent that MK will have no issue with coming up with the minimum 3 fp+ for every park goer, even at peak season. You can argue that not everyone will use the FP+ system, and I will agree with that, however, I think Disney needs to be able to produce that number if only on paper, in case the system needs to be able to do that. Just sayin.

What is of more interest perhaps, is how will AK be able to do this, with a 9-5 hr day? I think I will try and get some info on them, or epcot (I think Ive got the big three OHRCs from cm chatter on another board saved somewhere).

I have some time to play, we are snowed in and housebound. Its unbelievable!
I haven't had a chance to read all this yet! But somebody on site right now told me that 8 vehicles are loaded each minute on Peter Pans flight. That fits in well with your model.

Looking forward to catching up soon....
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Old 02-09-2013, 03:18 PM   #25
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Originally Posted by Rileygirl View Post
I am not even going to bother with group 2. I think its apparent that MK will have no issue with coming up with the minimum 3 fp+ for every park goer, even at peak season. You can argue that not everyone will use the FP+ system, and I will agree with that, however, I think Disney needs to be able to produce that number if only on paper, in case the system needs to be able to do that. Just sayin.
Those are some fascinating compilations. Throw in the Seven Dwarves Mine Train and the surplus number grows by another 10,000 or more per day. It wouldn't be a stretch to say that they have almost 2x as many tier 1 FP than they need.

Does that mean that they can use them for incentives for deluxe resorts? I think each park has a surplus on the tier one rides because less people attend the other three parks. The Total Surplus of FP+ for all the parks combined could give Disney some powerful tools to play with.

If we did the Second Tier Rides we would find yet another surplus. But first - Epcot and Animal Kingdom predictions...
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Old 02-09-2013, 03:49 PM   #26
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Animal Kingdom FP+

Tier 1: Hourly rate (daily based on 10 hour day)
Daily attendance 27,000 average

Expedition Everest 1800 (18000)
Kali River Rapids 1800 (18000)
Kilimanjaro Safari 2700 (27000)

Total Tier 1 @ 60% = 37,800 need 27000

Tier 2
Dinosaur 2400 (24000)
Primeval Whirl 1000 (10000)
Triceratop Spin 550 (5500)
Tough to Be a Bug 2000 (20000)
Nemo 1500 x 4 = (6000)
Lion King Show 6x1375 = (8250)
Parade (1000)
Meet and Greets (2000)

Total FP+ available tier 2 @ 60% = 46,050 needed 54,000 short 8,000. Hmmm. I guess they can't get many people to use their FP+ on Quick Service!!!

Overall, it looks like Disney Animal Kingdom is about neutral. It looks like this park needs a new land! Or, they will have to limit this park to 2 FP+ a day. That would get them a surplus. Those shorter hours do put a crunch on this park. Although EMH a few times a week would boost that total.
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Old 02-09-2013, 04:15 PM   #27
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Epcot FP Capacity

Tier 1: hourly rate (daily rate) 10 hours a day.
Average daily attendance 27000

Soarin 1600
Test Track 1200
Mission Space 1600
Spaceship Earth 2400

Total FP+ @ 60% = 40,800 FP+ - 27,000 needed = 13,800 surplus

Tier 2:
Seas with Nemo 2200
Figment 2240
Living with the Land 2700
Maelstrom 1900
American Adventure (10000)
Turtle Talk (500)
Illuminations (1000)
Meet and Greets (2000)
Quick Service

Total FP+ @ 60% = 62,340 - 54,000 = 8,340 surplus (not counting Gran Fiesta, Captain EO, Sum of All Thrills, or Energy Ride) That could bump up the total significantly.
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Old 02-09-2013, 05:47 PM   #28
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What percent missed FP+

I would think a substantial number of FP+ reservations will simply be skipped. That number would pad the surplus numbers also.

DAK could have a shortage of 8000 FP+ for tier 2 attractions but easily cover that deficit in no shows.
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Old 02-09-2013, 06:05 PM   #29
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bcrook
I would think a substantial number of FP+ reservations will simply be skipped. That number would pad the surplus numbers also.

DAK could have a shortage of 8000 FP+ for tier 2 attractions but easily cover that deficit in no shows.
Do you think they will be skipped more in AK than the other parks? Do you think FP or FP+ will have people skip the times more? I've just always assumed, I know what that can make me , people would be more likely to use their FP+'s than the traditional FP.

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Old 02-09-2013, 07:23 PM   #30
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Hi Barry - thanks for all your posts - REALLY helpful!! I was pretty much hooked on the first 2 FP+ threads. Please excuse me if I missed this, but are what you are listing as "Tier 1 & Tier 2" rides for sure now? Or are we still speculating? Thanks!
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