DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

Go Back   The DIS Discussion Forums - DISboards.com > Disney Vacation Club > DVC Member Services
facebooktwitterpinterestgoogle plusyoutubeDIS UpdatesDIS email updates
Register Chat FAQ Tickers Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read





Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 11-26-2012, 02:12 PM   #16
DougEMG
DIS Veteran
 
DougEMG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
Posts: 1,720

Quote:
Originally Posted by GOOFY D View Post
Obviously we do not know that yet. However, it is not as simple as blowing it off as "only" 2.5% (or more) above the average. That is an outlier and needs to be explained/rationalized. That may be done when the details are revealed. BLT's MFs have risen nearly 16% in 2 years! It does seems odd that there would be such a disparity in cost increases at only one resort. Seems like artificial manipulation as a theory as some have expressed cannot simply be overlooked.
The total increase over 2 years for each of the WDW resorts has been:

BLT 15.61%
AKV 13.27 %
VWL 8.49%
OKW 7.32%
BWV 6.98%
BCV 6.93%
SSR 6.72%

It certainly looks strange to me that BLT and AKV have such a large difference as compared to all the other resorts.

Compounding is a wonderful think when it is working for you, but very deadly when working against you.

If these increases continue, in 2-3 years BLT is going to have higher MF than SSR. Hopefully though at some point the BLT MF will start having similar annual increases as the older resorts.
__________________
DougEMG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2012, 02:13 PM   #17
spiceycat
Own at BWV, VWL and BLT
It happens every night on the Bay Lake side
 
spiceycat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: birmingham, Al
Posts: 36,927

thanks

for blt if the reserve is the problem - yea DVC is expecting us to pay for their bad judgement.

since this is just one building and it should have lower maintence fees - think might ask about it.

when is the meeting this year and do they allow questions?

the high fees for AKV is for the expensive of the animals that was explained when seeing the model rooms at least it was for me.

so far no reason other than hotel guests is being given for BLT.... do they really expect us to believe that one again?
__________________
Pat J

spiceycat is offline   Reply With Quote
|
The DIS
Register to remove

Join Date: 1997
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 1,000,000
Old 11-26-2012, 02:34 PM   #18
DebbieB
DVC Member BWV 99
You have to compare apples to apples
 
DebbieB's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Location: PA
Posts: 47,171

When new resorts are for sale, doesn't DVC provide a dues subsidy that goes away when it is soldout? Check your BLT budget booklet from last year, it should be listed in the notes.
__________________
DebbieB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2012, 02:53 PM   #19
bighoo93
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 367

Quote:
Originally Posted by GOOFY D View Post
Obviously we do not know that yet. However, it is not as simple as blowing it off as "only" 2.5% (or more) above the average. That is an outlier and needs to be explained/rationalized. That may be done when the details are revealed. BLT's MFs have risen nearly 16% in 2 years!
I agree with you. Even in September at the DVC walkthrough presentation, the guide was trying to sell me on how BLT was really one of the better deals once you factor in the low MFs. It still wasn't for me (I can only defer so much for so long to reap benefits), but I can certainly understand how relatively low MFs were a significant selling point to many, and seeing that evaporate has to be a bit disconcerting.
bighoo93 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2012, 03:01 PM   #20
spiceycat
Own at BWV, VWL and BLT
It happens every night on the Bay Lake side
 
spiceycat's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: birmingham, Al
Posts: 36,927

Quote:
Originally Posted by DebbieB View Post
When new resorts are for sale, doesn't DVC provide a dues subsidy that goes away when it is soldout? Check your BLT budget booklet from last year, it should be listed in the notes.
to my knowledge it did not.

so will check this year.

the only resort that they say that was for SSR - since it was quite a bit lower than OKW at the time.

OKW was rising much to fast for me - so sold it to buy BLT - since still love BLT will kept it despite the rising costs - but only for so long.

alot of OKW was wasted - the 2 guys that were during the gardening were retired they hired a bunch of people - then these guys could not kept it up like just the 2 guys were doing before....they only came out when called.....
__________________
Pat J

spiceycat is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2012, 03:39 PM   #21
tjkraz

DVC Owner SSR
 
tjkraz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Ohio
Posts: 13,185

Quote:
Originally Posted by GOOFY D View Post
Obviously we do not know that yet. However, it is not as simple as blowing it off as "only" 2.5% (or more) above the average. That is an outlier and needs to be explained/rationalized. That may be done when the details are revealed. BLT's MFs have risen nearly 16% in 2 years!
I don't think I'm "blowing it off" any more than you may be overreacting to a situation on which we don't have enough information to draw conclusions yet.

In real dollars your 2.82% outlier is about twelve cents per point. If memory serves, the county raised property taxes $.08 - .09 per point last year at BLT while most other resorts were relatively unchanged.

BLT added a fully staffed front desk this year. Two Cast Members (salaries, benefits, taxes) working 16 hours per day--plus additional charges for equipment, IT, support, etc--could have been the vast majority of the $.12 per point.

Quote:
It does seems odd that there would be such a disparity in cost increases at only one resort.
AKV has seen similar increases.

Quote:
Seems like artificial manipulation as a theory as some have expressed cannot simply be overlooked.
Well, as I stated, the budgets have been reviewed and audited for going on 6 years now so I'm not sure what other smoking gun is out there waiting to be uncovered. The Aulani dues adjustment was nearly $1.50 per point--not twelve cents.

And even IF some budget items were marginally understated in the resort's early years:

1) Owners saved money in those years when budgets were lower.
2) Would it really have made a difference in your buy/don't buy decision? If dues were $.12 higher in 2011, 2010 or 2009, would you have passed on the purchase?

I understand eyebrows being raised over some of the numbers but from past experience the reasons are typically revealed between the detailed budget and the condo meeting. At the end of the day, buying into DVC is a vote of confidence for DVC management, auditors and others charged with making sure the program is running correctly. We make the purchase knowing that we have ZERO say in resort operations and will never get line item details in how our dollars are being spent.

I know this sounds glib and dismissive but if you're concerned about future dues trends then you have no confidence in Disney and/or DVC management. The only real option available is to sell.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
It certainly looks strange to me that BLT and AKV have such a large difference as compared to all the other resorts.
A year ago it was explained that the BLT and AKV increases were due to a larger-than-expected volume of DVC guests compared to hotel guests at those shared facilities.

If 30% of all registered guests at BLT are staying in DVC villas, 30% of the operating cost of shared amenities (front desk, recreation, transportation, utilities, etc.) are billed to DVC.

Dues at those two resorts received an abnormal bump when the guest mix was recalculated and DVC was found to be a higher percentage than previously computed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DebbieB View Post
When new resorts are for sale, doesn't DVC provide a dues subsidy that goes away when it is soldout? Check your BLT budget booklet from last year, it should be listed in the notes.
BLT hasn't had a subsidy since its first year and even then it was only $.08 per point.
__________________
-- Tim

DVC owner at SSR, BWV and VGC

Last edited by tjkraz; 11-26-2012 at 03:44 PM.
tjkraz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2012, 06:29 PM   #22
WebmasterDoc
Administrator
 
WebmasterDoc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1998
Location: South Carolina
Posts: 30,826
DISboards Administrator

The 2013 fees for HH got some benefit from the payoff of a loan/advance provided by DVD about 5 years ago for some unexpected expenses covered by the capital expense fund but needed much earlier than originally planned. That loan will be paid off in December, 2012 so the portion of dues previously used to repay that loan is now unnecessary and has been removed from maintenance fees going forward.
__________________
Doc
WebmasterDoc is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2012, 07:15 PM   #23
Brian Noble
His Curmudgeonly Highness
 
Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: The People's Republic of Ann Arbor, MI
Posts: 11,709

Re: BLT costs. If you do the math to figure out the cost of a week in a 2BR in Magic Season, the Lake View units are several hundred dollars less than the other "theme park" resorts (BCV, BWV, VWL). It does not seem as though anything untoward is going on.
Brian Noble is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2012, 07:27 PM   #24
silmarg
SIL
 
silmarg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Westchester County, NY
Posts: 1,931

I have to say, I am glad I bought SSR resale... low MFs, low increases, low resale prices.

Win win win
__________________
Sil
WDW: 1979 1982 1986 1989 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005(twice) 2006 2007(+4 day DCL)
2008 Aug - 15 day eastbound repo on DCL (+DL & DCA)!!!
2009 Feb - WDW (POP - buy 4 get 7 impromptu trip | Aug/Sep - Nine Days of FREE DINING and FREE SSR upgrade!
2010 Feb - Taking my parents to POR w Grand Kids | Sept - Pop Free Dining Bounce Back
2011 Feb - Grand California DVC Welcome Home | Aug - Disney Dream!!! (AKV b4 and BCV after)
2012 Feb - Carribean Beach / SSR split stay | Sept - 5 day NYC/Canadian Cruise on Magic | Oct - 3 day suprise the kids trip MNSSHP / F&W @ OKW
2013 Feb - Disney Fantasy (western) | Aug/Sept - Parents 50th Anniv. Disney Fantasy (eastern) and WDW (OKW)
2014 Feb - VGC and ABD BSM
2014 Aug - BLT
2014 Sept - Disney Magic Southern Caribbean (still on the fence on this one)
silmarg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2012, 08:01 PM   #25
keaster
DIS Veteran
 
keaster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Ontario, Can.
Posts: 924

When will we see the line by line breakdown of dues by resort? Will that come out after the condo meeting?
__________________


DCL Gold, Baby!
Caribbean Magic - February 2009
Bahamas Wonder - September 2009
Mediterranean Magic - May 2010
Mexico Wonder - March 2011
Bahamas Dream - July 2011
Caribbean Fantasy - March 2013


Our DVC Adventures!AKL Jambo - March 2012/AKL Kidani - August 2012/BLT - March 2013/SSR Treehouse - August 2013/AKL Kidani - March 2014/VGF - June 2014
keaster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2012, 08:09 PM   #26
KAT4DISNEY
Glad to be a test subject
1st trip Disneyland 1969
1st Trip DisneyWorld 1972
Only trip Disneyland Paris 2002
 
KAT4DISNEY's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Nevada
Posts: 9,048

Quote:
Originally Posted by keaster View Post
When will we see the line by line breakdown of dues by resort? Will that come out after the condo meeting?
They should be mailing out notices of the proposed budgets to members prior to the annual meeting. Then, once it's approved, the bills will go out.
__________________
Kathy

KAT4DISNEY is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2012, 09:21 PM   #27
DougEMG
DIS Veteran
 
DougEMG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
Posts: 1,720

Quote:
Originally Posted by Brian Noble View Post
Re: BLT costs. If you do the math to figure out the cost of a week in a 2BR in Magic Season, the Lake View units are several hundred dollars less than the other "theme park" resorts (BCV, BWV, VWL). It does not seem as though anything untoward is going on.
You must be only looking at what the current MF are and multiplying that by the current points required for that stay. I'm pretty sure that once you add in your initial purchase cost to the equation that the numbers do not come out quiet the same.

Using Aug 1-8, 2013 in a 2 bedroom lake view for BLT against SSR.

BLT is 386 points at $4.4972/point in MF, for a total of $1,735.92
SSR is 315 point at $4.8129/point in MF, for a total of $1,516.06

So SSR is $219.85 cheaper for the week looking at MF only. Factor in your buy in cost and SSR is going to be even a better deal price wise.

And if BLT MF don't slow down, they will catch up to SSR in a few years, wiping out that advantage as well.

At the end of the day, if price is your motivating factor buy SSR, otherwise buy the location you love and just realize that you will pay a premium for it.
__________________
DougEMG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-26-2012, 09:29 PM   #28
silmarg
SIL
 
silmarg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Westchester County, NY
Posts: 1,931

Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
At the end of the day, if price is your motivating factor buy SSR, otherwise buy the location you love and just realize that you will pay a premium for it.
Amen!
__________________
Sil
WDW: 1979 1982 1986 1989 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005(twice) 2006 2007(+4 day DCL)
2008 Aug - 15 day eastbound repo on DCL (+DL & DCA)!!!
2009 Feb - WDW (POP - buy 4 get 7 impromptu trip | Aug/Sep - Nine Days of FREE DINING and FREE SSR upgrade!
2010 Feb - Taking my parents to POR w Grand Kids | Sept - Pop Free Dining Bounce Back
2011 Feb - Grand California DVC Welcome Home | Aug - Disney Dream!!! (AKV b4 and BCV after)
2012 Feb - Carribean Beach / SSR split stay | Sept - 5 day NYC/Canadian Cruise on Magic | Oct - 3 day suprise the kids trip MNSSHP / F&W @ OKW
2013 Feb - Disney Fantasy (western) | Aug/Sept - Parents 50th Anniv. Disney Fantasy (eastern) and WDW (OKW)
2014 Feb - VGC and ABD BSM
2014 Aug - BLT
2014 Sept - Disney Magic Southern Caribbean (still on the fence on this one)
silmarg is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-27-2012, 07:38 AM   #29
emilymad
DIS Veteran
 
emilymad's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: PA
Posts: 1,645

Quote:
Originally Posted by silmarg View Post
I have to say, I am glad I bought SSR resale... low MFs, low increases, low resale prices.

Win win win
Exactly what I am thinking today!
__________________
emilymad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 11-27-2012, 08:35 AM   #30
tjkraz

DVC Owner SSR
 
tjkraz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Ohio
Posts: 13,185

Quote:
Originally Posted by silmarg View Post
I have to say, I am glad I bought SSR resale... low MFs, low increases, low resale prices.

Win win win
Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
And if BLT MF don't slow down, they will catch up to SSR in a few years, wiping out that advantage as well.
It takes more than 1-2 years to establish a trend.

Last year the SSR dues increase was 4.8%. From 2010-2011 BLT saw a 2.9% adjustment.

If you look at the history of dues increases, something in the neighborhood of 3 - 3.5% is to be expected. That's the baseline.

If the increase is more than the baseline, there's usually a tangible explanation. In years past extra bumps have been caused by higher property insurance rates (bad storms), transportation (gas prices), a refurb project that needs to be completed earlier than expected (Doc's Hilton Head example, among others), a resort service or amenity being added (SSR Paddock pool), property tax increase (set by county), and so on.

Some years there are lower-than-expected increases for similar reasons: gas prices not as high as anticipated in prior year, final tax assessment lower than estimated, refurb project costs less than budgeted.

DVC claims 75% of the resort operating budgets go toward staffing: salaries, taxes and benefits. Those increases should be comparable across all resorts (at least, all at WDW) since staffing levels are similar and union pay scales are in place. These staff-related cost increases alone will net the 3-3.5% annual rise in dues as employees get raises and employee benefits--like health insurance--cost more.

BLT is subject to the same staff-related cost increases as all others.

It's the outliers which push the annual percents higher. And it's unlikely that BLT will continue to experience a different budgetary outlier year-after-year.
__________________
-- Tim

DVC owner at SSR, BWV and VGC
tjkraz is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

DVC-Resales.com | 1-800-550-6493 (Contact The Timeshare Store) | DVC Resale Listings

facebooktwittergoogle plus youtube itunesDIS Updates
GET OUR DIS UPDATES DELIVERED BY EMAIL



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:13 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

Copyright © 1997-2014, Werner Technologies, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

You Rated this Thread: