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Old 10-26-2012, 07:28 PM   #46
DUHgreg
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For those of us in the mid-Atlantic area, if you want to lose some sleep, here's the current guess for rain totals.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/zoo...l_Days_1-5.gif



Starting to regret going to Target to buy some (well, more than some) Halloween candy yesterday. It may not make it.
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Old 10-26-2012, 07:35 PM   #47
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this thing is supposed to be right over my house tuesday nite at midnite.
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Old 10-26-2012, 07:39 PM   #48
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Sandy is came to visit!

Southern st. Johns county, fl was put under a tropical storm warning at the 5:00 pm advisory. We have had 30-35 mph winds, beach erosion, but no significant rain. Just arrived home after a busy day working at the emergency operations center and a large oak tree just crashed into our roof. Minor roof damaged, wiped out gutters, and hit the ac unit. Chainsaw work for tomorrow after checking NHC advisories and completing damage assessment.

For the area of the eastern seaboard in the cone of uncertainty, have a plan, have a disaster kit, and know your vulnerabilities such as flooding, or storm surge.

Be prepared,

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Old 10-26-2012, 08:25 PM   #49
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Quote:
Originally Posted by HippieChickadee View Post
Thanks for your post Kevin!!!

So, just to clarify further... the lines are where it could hit... but is that the center of the storm hitting? Could the effects of the storm be around that line or where the eye goes?

Sorry to be dense
The lines in the first graph and the white cone in the second graph show what scientists believe to be the "cone of possibility".

Notice in the second graph that the white cone turns into a white line and extends even further. As this is days away, the area that could possibly feel the strongest effects widens considerably.

This is due to them not be able to accurately predict that far out.

I dont want you to think that I have any hard knowledge of this. I live in Florida and have lived through this many times. That being said....our forecast never includes snow.
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:15 PM   #50
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Hi hippie chickadee,

Here is the explanation we use at work to describe the cone of uncertainty. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone. The solid white circle depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3. The stippled area depicts uncertainy on days 4-5. Historically the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone 60-70 percent of the time. The cone does not represent storm intensity. Depending on the wind fields extending out from the center, tropical effects can impact areas outside of the cone. A good example is the east coast of Florida today. Not in the cone, but tropical storm conditions today because of large wind field. Check out the national hurricane center web site at www.nhc.noaa or your local National weather service office for their local hurricane statement.

Scubamickey

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Quote:
Originally Posted by HippieChickadee View Post
Thanks for your post Kevin!!!

So, just to clarify further... the lines are where it could hit... but is that the center of the storm hitting? Could the effects of the storm be around that line or where the eye goes?

Sorry to be dense
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Old 10-26-2012, 10:59 PM   #51
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScubaMickey View Post
Hi hippie chickadee,

Here is the explanation we use at work to describe the cone of uncertainty. The cone represents the probable track of the center of a tropical cyclone. The solid white circle depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3. The stippled area depicts uncertainy on days 4-5. Historically the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone 60-70 percent of the time. The cone does not represent storm intensity. Depending on the wind fields extending out from the center, tropical effects can impact areas outside of the cone. A good example is the east coast of Florida today. Not in the cone, but tropical storm conditions today because of large wind field. Check out the national hurricane center web site at www.nhc.noaa or your local National weather service office for their local hurricane statement.

Scubamickey

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This what I meant to say......
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Old 10-26-2012, 11:56 PM   #52
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Hahaha, thank you everyone, for educating me! I've wondered this last year (Irene) and I never thought more of it after, and here I am again, going through another hurricane (possibly)! What are the chances!!??

And Lord help me if we get snow. Ugh.

I guess we can't do anything but keep watching. I notice that line keeps changing in probability (obviously) but so far it's been pretty correct in it's path.

Am I right that it's looking to hit further down each day? More DC area now?
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Old 10-27-2012, 02:28 AM   #53
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Definitely take precautions, but I'm not even watching the weather right now. A few years ago I watched a weather report with my mom where the weather guy was jumping up and down saying we were 100% going to have a massive blizzard on Thanksgiving Day. Jumping. up. and down. yelling and saying it was 100% for sure that we were going to get feet of snow. My mom went out and bought a turkey because we go to my aunt's for Thanksgiving. I don't know what she ever did with that turkey though because we didn't get a single flake of snow. It was sunny and 45 degrees on Thanksgiving. I have never watched that weather guy since. I don't take weather/mother nature lightly, but I do try to avoid the hysteria the media likes to create.
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Old 10-27-2012, 06:47 AM   #54
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I live in Massachusetts on an island and they are taking it pretty seriously here. The past few days have been crazy with people trying to get their boats out of the water or at least extra secured on their moorings.

Our mayor announced yesterday that halloween would be early this year with trick or treating to be done this sunday between 4pm to 6pm. The kids came home from school yesterday with a little extra homework. The teachers are assuming they will be out at least a few days next week because of the storm.

Notices have been going around reminding people where to go if shelter is needed with reminders to stock up on non-perishables , flashlights, batteries, water, sterno, blankets ect. We always loose power during big storms and because we're an island, always last to be back on.

What I haven't seen here yet is to make sure you remember your pets! Have extra food/water for them too. Have plenty of newspaper in case you can't walk them. If you must evacuate, take them with you!!! Some shelters won't accept pets, some do. If its dangerous for you to stay home, it is for them too. Just remember, as much as they beg, DO NOT let them out in the storm!
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Old 10-27-2012, 07:32 AM   #55
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In the spirit of "just in case", I'm going to go buy some supplies today.

Here's a game to keep those of you worried distracted...shall we try to guess where Anderson Cooper will land when he does his live "in the middle of the storm" reports?

Stay safe everyone!

Susan
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Old 10-27-2012, 08:34 AM   #56
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Not sure about Anderson, but if Jim Cantore ever shows up in my area then I'm outta here.
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Old 10-27-2012, 10:01 AM   #57
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I'm going to the store "just in case" as soon as I get out of work today. I'm sure it's going to be wonky. Hurricane Irene I was lot prepared so this time I'm making sure we are. Filling tubs up with water as we have a well and can't flush out toilets. Also making sure all laundry is fine tonight.
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Old 10-27-2012, 11:05 AM   #58
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Just a heads-up to NJ DISers, the governor is going to be on any minute regarding declaring a state of emergency...

I believe New York, Delaware, and Virginia already called one, if I'm not mistaken.
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Old 10-27-2012, 11:33 AM   #59
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Hi Nikki...thanks for the heads up. Stay safe!!!!
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Old 10-27-2012, 12:30 PM   #60
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Quote:
Originally Posted by *NikkiBell* View Post
Just a heads-up to NJ DISers, the governor is going to be on any minute regarding declaring a state of emergency...

I believe New York, Delaware, and Virginia already called one, if I'm not mistaken.
Yup. Christie is asking people not to leave the house Monday or Tuesday, and to expect 7-10 days of power outages.

Please stay safe everyone, especially those in the beach towns.
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