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Old 03-11-2013, 02:48 PM   #1111
dbs1228
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Originally Posted by Joey7295 View Post
I just got the email saying Disney has ROFRd this contract. That's 2 in 1 day
That stinks! Pretty quick turn around, I wonder if they are going to take most or all contracts for older properties right now to replenish inventory. I feel like I am about 3 weeks behind since a ton of people were passing right through at the end of Jan - mid Feb.

What agency did you use? I have a purchase with Fidelity and a sale SSR with TSS both were submitted last week.
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Old 03-11-2013, 03:29 PM   #1112
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Is the price spread between resale and the new March 20th prices enough to make it worth Disney's while to actively encourage direct buyers to take the older resorts if they can't afford the more expensive ones.
I don't think so. Industry standard is that cost to acquire/develop is 20-25% of sales costs. Even at $130, that means the ROFR threshold is $26-$33. Tim K. has suggested that the cost to Disney is even lower:

http://disboards.com/showpost.php?p=...1&postcount=95

At the same time, the "gap" between new and old resorts is getting smaller. My guess is that Disney is fine with letting the bottom end of the market go untapped.

Edited to add: it's also dangerous to take reports one at a time and try to make sense of them. Here's why:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...ed-by-evidence
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Old 03-11-2013, 03:47 PM   #1113
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Originally Posted by Brian Noble View Post
I don't think so. Industry standard is that cost to acquire/develop is 20-25% of sales costs. Even at $130, that means the ROFR threshold is $26-$33. Tim K. has suggested that the cost to Disney is even lower:

http://disboards.com/showpost.php?p=...1&postcount=95

At the same time, the "gap" between new and old resorts is getting smaller. My guess is that Disney is fine with letting the bottom end of the market go untapped.

Edited to add: it's also dangerous to take reports one at a time and try to make sense of them. Here's why:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/ar...ed-by-evidence
Fair points. I'm curious how you would explain the increase in ROFR activity recently. Or are you suggesting that there isn't an actual increase?
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Old 03-11-2013, 04:09 PM   #1114
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In general, I'm not a fan of guessing why something happens when I have no particular way of testing whether my hypothesis is true or not. It is too easy to put together the things we *can* observe. The price goes up here, ROFR happens there, must be related!

But, only DVD knows why ROFR is increasing in a substantive way, assuming that it is. Recall that February saw a decrease in ROFR'd points.
http://disboards.com/showpost.php?p=...&postcount=254

Assuming that it is increasing, there are a lot of plausible factors. For example, I suspect we have fully passed through the bulge of inventory made available through recession-inspired defaults, reducing the flow of "free" points to DVD. There is also some evidence that travel demand is picking up. David is experiencing more demand than he can fulfill for rental points. Wyndham is expecting a banner year for sales in their system this year, and is increasing their sales staff in Orlando. The non-Disney hotels are seeing an increase in both occupancy and average daily room rates:
http://corporate.visitorlando.com/re...earch-summary/

My bottom line is that any real changes---in pricing, in discounting, and in Disney's need to re-acquire---are going to be driven by these sorts of macro-economic trends, not local-to-DVD effects.
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Old 03-11-2013, 05:02 PM   #1115
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Originally Posted by Joey7295 View Post
I just got the email saying Disney has ROFRd this contract. That's 2 in 1 day
What a bummer, that really sucks!!

Sorry to hear it, but hopefylly you can get back in the game with a new contract (and perhaps a new resort?)
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Old 03-11-2013, 05:09 PM   #1116
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That stinks. I notice that your contracts were loaded -- I'm wondering if that makes the difference. I have a BLT Dec UY ROFR submitted with zero 2012 points, so I'm hopeful it will pass.
I'm also noticing that many of the contracts that have been recently picked up had banked points. I wonder if that is part of it.
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Old 03-11-2013, 05:15 PM   #1117
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OKW 220 pts UY Feb.--220 holding, 228 banked all need to be used by Jan 2013, $59 per pt. submitted Feb. 18th. Still have not heard back, word is it may be in the current batch Disney just received. Buyer paying all costs, forgot to add that. Will keep everyone posted if we get it!
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Old 03-11-2013, 05:40 PM   #1118
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Originally Posted by zgirlz
OKW 220 pts UY Feb.--220 holding, 228 banked all need to be used by Jan 2013, $59 per pt. submitted Feb. 18th. Still have not heard back, word is it may be in the current batch Disney just received. Buyer paying all costs, forgot to add that. Will keep everyone posted if we get it!
Jan 2013 or 2014?
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Old 03-11-2013, 07:35 PM   #1119
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Actually seller pays closing!
Thanks, cuteinnocent, I'll get that change in the next update.

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Old 03-11-2013, 07:46 PM   #1120
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Hi all,

Working on the next update -- should be available in a couple of days. We just got back yesterday from 2 weeks in Orlando. I think I found the cure for addonitis -- we bought a house in Orlando . It's something we have been contemplating for quite some time, and having arrived home yesterday to a snow-covered driveway and having to shovel what did not melt yet, I knew our decision was the right one.

No plans to sell our OKW or BLT contracts, though.


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Old 03-11-2013, 07:52 PM   #1121
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I think I found the cure for addonitis -- we bought a house in Orlando . It's something we have been contemplating for quite some time, ...
Congratulations!
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Old 03-11-2013, 08:15 PM   #1122
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Congratulations on buying a house in Orlando!
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Old 03-12-2013, 09:27 AM   #1123
AppleDisneyDad
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DVC Gold Member
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Just heard back

AKV 160 pts @ 65 pp, all 12, 13, 14 pts. Seller pays 2013 mf and closing, buyer pays $195 admin fee

Sub 2/13, passed 3/12
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Old 03-12-2013, 09:34 AM   #1124
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We are trying, sent in the contract today:
BLT 100 points March UY. 100 banked from 2012 and 100 going forward. $96 per point, and buyer pays MF for 2013 and closing costs.

Bobbi
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Old 03-12-2013, 09:58 AM   #1125
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We are trying, sent in the contract today:
BLT 100 points March UY. 100 banked from 2012 and 100 going forward. $96 per point, and buyer pays MF for 2013 and closing costs.

Bobbi
Good luck, Bobbi!
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