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Old 09-21-2012, 11:32 PM   #1
rsleleux
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Touringplan predictions changed!

Got an email today saying that predictions for our days changed. The crowd prediction changed from 2-3 scale to 7-8! Wow, we went in May and it was a 5 on a Friday night, during Fantasmic and we were squished like sardines. We didn't even watch Fantasmic, we just left! I was so excited that my husband agreed to go back in October for my son's birthday since we didn't get to do everything we wanted to when we were there but now I'm concerned we will do less! Our trip is planned for Oct 17-21st, during UEA!
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:49 PM   #2
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Not surprised, I think Touring Plans doesn't quite have a handle on DL crowds. I would take their predictions with a grain of salt. I don't fully understand their numbering system either. How can NYE and a weekday in summer both be a 10?
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Old 09-21-2012, 11:51 PM   #3
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Maybe I'm over-reacting, I just looked at today's prediction and it was also a 7 out of 10 and the wait times are not bad at all. RSR is expected to be a long wait, but everything else is tolerable!
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Old 09-22-2012, 06:42 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ArchOwl View Post
Not surprised, I think Touring Plans doesn't quite have a handle on DL crowds. I would take their predictions with a grain of salt. I don't fully understand their numbering system either. How can NYE and a weekday in summer both be a 10?
My thoughts exactly.

And if they are changing it now because of UEA it is kind of laughable as that has been known for many months. I was considering going that weekend myself and when I looked at the calendar and saw UEA switched to a different weekend.
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Old 09-22-2012, 09:07 AM   #5
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I got the same one....MAN....from 1.1 to 5 is a huge jump...

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Old 09-22-2012, 10:54 AM   #6
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Sorry to be a bit dense, but what's UAE?

I just looked up our dates for next week (!) and Sept 30-Oct 2, Sun -Tues, has changed from 6,3,1 to 8,1,1. I guess it all averages out the same. I wonder what other changes they've made to October in the last few days.
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Old 09-22-2012, 11:08 AM   #7
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UEA = Utah Enters Anaheim, apparently. Never heard of it until I googled and I only see mentions of it on message boards like this (not that I looked far).
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Old 09-22-2012, 11:46 AM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mary09
UEA = Utah Enters Anaheim, apparently. Never heard of it until I googled and I only see mentions of it on message boards like this (not that I looked far).
It really stands for Utah Education Association. It's a conference for teachers and educators. Most schools are out Thursday, Friday & some Monday. Everyone uses the long weekend to head to Disney. Yes, there is a noticeable difference in the parks.
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Old 09-22-2012, 01:28 PM   #9
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The crowds for my dates increased as well. Sat October 13 is going to be a ten The Thurs/Fri we will be there are going to be around 7-8. I am really really disappointed, to be honest
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Old 09-22-2012, 01:49 PM   #10
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any one know the number for oct 2-4th?
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Old 09-22-2012, 01:59 PM   #11
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They changed nov 2-6 too. I thought they were off with the parade taping that weekend. It went from 3, 5, 5, 1, 1 to 5, 7, 7, 4, 6. Still not sure they are correct about Monday and Tuesday being so busy.
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Old 09-22-2012, 04:16 PM   #12
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any one know the number for oct 2-4th?
1-2 very low crowds! Congratulations!
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Old 09-22-2012, 04:31 PM   #13
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ty
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Old 09-22-2012, 04:32 PM   #14
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The crowds for my dates increased as well. Sat October 13 is going to be a ten The Thurs/Fri we will be there are going to be around 7-8. I am really really disappointed, to be honest
From what I have seen the TP crowd predictions are meaningless.

This summer everyone who knows anything knew it would be very crowded after June 15. But TP continued to show more moderate crowd predictions. Then as June 15 approached they finally figured out it would be crowded and they overdid it and changed every day this summer to a "10". That is against their own rules because there can only be 36 days a year which are 10 since a 10 represents the top 10% of crowded days out of 365 days. And what about Spring Break, Thanksgiving week and Christmas week - which will also probably all be 10?

That does not help at all. What does it mean if every day is a 10? That tells you nothing. I was at DL in July on a day that was supposed to be a 10 and crowds were not that bad - nothing like a New Years or anything.

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Old 09-22-2012, 05:20 PM   #15
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I think with Cars land, coupled with Disney's massive advertisement campaign. All the crowd meters for Disneyland can be thrown out the window. Or the understanding of what is crowded is now holds a lot of misconceptions. I simply do not think there is any way to average this period of time with Touring Plans current data.

Every DL vets I spoke to last week while in the park also echoed those statements. All feeling this period in the park was well beyond normal everyday levels. It was supposed to be a 1.1, and it might have been. But what once was considered a 1.1 feels like a 3 or 4 in the past.
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