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Old 08-17-2012, 01:12 PM   #196
ValpoCory
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Originally Posted by Brian Noble View Post
You don't have to do this. Just program the turnstiles so that they don't require a scan from single-day ticket holders---just like the turnstiles at WDW don't require them of guests who are under 10. Single-day ticket holders are welcomed through immediately. Multi-day ticket holders have to use the scanners.
They need to do this and start selling longer passes.
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Old 08-17-2012, 01:20 PM   #197
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I suppose it is possible. But, if they only wanted to curtail fraud, this is a baby-with-the-bathwater way of doing it, because eliminating relatively inexpensive six-day tickets certainly puts negative pressure on attendance. Just look at this thread---several folks would have spent a few extra days in the parks, but won't under this price scheme.
I agree that this is a baby-with-the-bathwater way of doing it, which is why it is frustrating so many of us "babies".
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Old 08-17-2012, 01:27 PM   #198
Brian Noble
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I agree that this is a baby-with-the-bathwater way of doing it, which is why it is frustrating so many of us "babies".
So, do you think TDA doesn't understand this? Personally, I think they must; this is micro-econ 101---if you raise prices, demand will fall.

Assuming they do understand it, why did they use this as the mechanism to curtail fraud when other superior mechanisms are readily available?

It just doesn't pass Occam's Razor to me---the simplest explanation is usually right. And, the simplest explanation is that they want to increase their per-capita numbers, and think this year they can without harming attendance thanks to the investment they've made at DCA.

As I wrote above, I'm also one of the "babies", and definitely wish this wasn't the way things were going to go. But, it sure looks like it is.
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Old 08-17-2012, 01:52 PM   #199
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Originally Posted by Brian Noble View Post
I suspect that, from Disney's perspective, that is not the problem. That is the point. It's not as though the Sharp Pencil Boys don't know the consequences: people will either pay up for more days, or they will go elsewhere. Disney apparently believes that they have enough demand that the parks will still see sufficient attendance at these price points. Time will tell, but based on the early crowd swings to DCA now that Cars Land is open, plus observing what Universal managed to do with Potter, I think Disney might be right.



Well, for starters, assuming these last few updates from Guest Services are really true, there is no such thing as a six or seven day pass anymore. There is a five day pass. If you want more entries during the same trip, you can either buy another "new" ticket, or upgrade to an appropriate Annual Pass. This happens on the East Coast, too, though you don't hear about it as often. But, there are some people who want to see the four main parks more than 10 days in a single trip, and they have the same choice: upgrade to an AP, or buy another "new" ticket.

But, putting that aside, Disney could offer longer passes that better maintain gate integrity. Such passes would look a lot more like the old Parkhopper/Parkhopper Plus tickets that were in play at WDW before the switched to the MYW scheme. In the PH/PHP scheme, the per-day prices for any length ticket were much closer to one another, no matter how many days you bought. So, it left it up to the guest to decide how often they wanted to come, and it cost more or less the same per day no matter what.

Why don't they do that instead? I could come up with some theories, but they are only theories. Indeed, unless someone posting here secretly works for TDA, that's all we've got. I suspect that the two coasts price their tickets such that the natural visit length (the number of days the average family thinks they need) is pretty close to full price, and inexpensive extra days are an incentive to get people to use the rest of a "typical" vacation to the area almost exclusively at Disney.

So, the question is why is DLR's maximum shorter than WDW's? Partly, the extra gates at WDW provide a (false) impression that you need twice as much time there; you don't because the two Anaheim parks just have more attractions in total. But, it would not surprise me to hear that "typical" Southern California vacations are shorter than "typical" Central Florida vacations, because so many more people live closer to Anahem than to Orlando. In other words, the average Disneyland visitor isn't coming from as far away as the average WDW visitor, and so they don't have to stay as long to make the visit worthwhile.

Naturally, we DISers---hardcore Disney fans all---are more likely to be coming from farther away and so want to visit longer than "the average guest". But, we are also probably not at all representative of the average guest.


But, there are two things to notice here. First, in some sense, it doesn't really matter to Disney how they get your money---whether through higher admission or more post-admission in-park spending---because they all flow to that all-important per-capita spending number that gets reported in the financial disclosures. On the other hand, Disney would rather get it through the gate than post-admission spending, because if you go at all the gate is guaranteed. Getting inside is the one thing a Disney guest can't decided to skip to save money. You eat outside the berm. You can buy souvenirs outside the berm. But, you can't experience the parks outside the berm.
I agree with the idea that the number crunchers are betting that CL is such a draw, with attendance up so much, that it still result in higher revenues even while losing some guests who would have come for another day or two (and bought food et al in those days).
But you misunderstood my hypotheticals. I am all too aware that there is not a 7-day PH or anything like that. I was putting out that as a suggestion to your $51/day floor-price theory. The floor price does not prevent from creating options for people who want to stay longer than five days. Considering the amazing array of ticket options and add-ons at WDW, DLR should be well aware that there are plenty of ideas beyond either selling sixth and seventh days for $5 or forcing people to spend hundreds of dollars per person to buy a new ticket or AP. There is plenty of price gap between $290 for a 5-day PH and $469 for an AP, or between $5 for a sixth day and $125 for a sixth day that comes from buying a single-day PH, that such people could fill.

Of course we here are not representative guests, but then they already know they have different types of guests, which is why there are special offers only for SoCal residents with particular ZIP codes of residence. As I've said before, there is no reason they can't reverse that idea and offer specials to people outside the "representative guest" zone. Even today, I believe Aussies can still get 8-day PHs from their Flight Centre (although they used to be able to get 14-day ones) because DLR understood that people coming across an ocean will want to stay longer.

I understand your point about getting my money any way they can is fine, but there are two things you did not address:
1) Increased costs to Disney for my extra days of attendance, however slight, that my family causes because we bought the APs and now visit the parks for, say, 10 days out of our vacay, when really 7 or 8 is ideal to my personal plans if I weren't desperate to recoup some extra Disney for all that extra cash we felt forced to spend. But I assume you will say that we basically cost them nothing with our added attendance?
2) How our decreased spending in other areas (food, merch) affects the employment and other costs of running those outlets in the parks. If gate integrity can be hurt at Six Flags by pricing entrance fees too low, so low that they are not made up for in increased spending on food, games, and merch, why can't the issue also go the other way? I know primarily the risk of pricing entry "too high" is that too few bodies comes through the gates, which is not a problem for DLR right now, but surely, the hiring, the supply orders, the energy costs, etc., must be an issue if people find it more and more necessary and/or worthwhile to curtail in-park spending. I thought that issue was a big complaint about single-day (or even partial-day) local AP visitors who typically spend less in the park than ticket buyers.

As for all of you debating fraud as the main reason, I have to think that there are SO many options for making it harder for Person B to use a PH that Person A originally used that fraud can NOT be a principle motivation. It doesn't mean that the higher prices and shorter ticket lengths won't hurt the scalpers' business, but if that were a primary interest, there are lots of other ways to do it while still allowing guests more freedom to plan a trip to their liking without increasing the cost by 67.5% ($756) as it currently does if a party of two adults + two kids go from 5-day PH ($1120) to APs ($1876) even if they only want two more days.

Finally, I have to ask: What is "berm"? Acronym? Slang? Abbreviation?
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Old 08-17-2012, 02:15 PM   #200
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The problem is they are pricing people out of spending extra days in the park after their 5 day tickets are done.
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Originally Posted by Brian Noble View Post
I suspect that, from Disney's perspective, that is not the problem. That is the point. It's not as though the Sharp Pencil Boys don't know the consequences: people will either pay up for more days, or they will go elsewhere. Disney apparently believes that they have enough demand that the parks will still see sufficient attendance at these price points. Time will tell, but based on the early crowd swings to DCA now that Cars Land is open, plus observing what Universal managed to do with Potter, I think Disney might be right.
The reason why it is clear to me that this is not what Disney believes is this ...

Disneyland Park Vice President Jon Storbeck's latest quote ...
Quote:
Q: Where are you at in the process of turning this into the 4 and 5 day resort?
JON: Wow. I think we’re always looking for an opportunity to bring guests into the resort and give them an opportunity to stay another day, and I certainly think we’ve done that here with what you see with Cars Land. I think what we’ve done here…what the Imagineers have done…is just give the guests a reason when they come to Southern California to stay one more day here, whether they’re on ... a five day vacation and they want to stay a sixth, so it’s just a great environment for them.
So the Disney execs want guests to stay 6 days. With that now established, the only reasonable explanation for the elimination of the 6-day passes is to curtail fraud.
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Old 08-17-2012, 02:19 PM   #201
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So, do you think TDA doesn't understand this? Personally, I think they must; this is micro-econ 101---if you raise prices, demand will fall.

Assuming they do understand it, why did they use this as the mechanism to curtail fraud when other superior mechanisms are readily available?
I disagree that the superior mechanisms are readily available. The elimination of the 6 day passes is free. You curtail fraud while alienating a small percentage of legitimate guests. Legitimate guests, who if they are persistent enough, can extend their tickets by finding the right person. The implementation of biometric tickets, from new turnstiles to training, would be a significant expense. I'd venture in the millions of dollars to handle all the entrances and cast members. You curtail fraud without alienating legitimate guests, but at a significantly larger cost.
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Old 08-17-2012, 02:23 PM   #202
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I think that quote is saying that they want you to want to come back. So by cutting off the 6th day, they are hoping you will plan another vacation to come back. In that case, instead of an extra added day, they would be getting an extra 3-5 days (if this is an out of town person - most won't be coming in for a single day).
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Old 08-17-2012, 02:31 PM   #203
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Originally Posted by KalamityJane View Post
I think that quote is saying that they want you to want to come back. So by cutting off the 6th day, they are hoping you will plan another vacation to come back. In that case, instead of an extra added day, they would be getting an extra 3-5 days (if this is an out of town person - most won't be coming in for a single day).
Possibly, except reading it again ...

Quote:
I think what we’ve done here…is just give the guests a reason when they come to Southern California to stay one more day here, whether they’re on ... a five day vacation and they want to stay a sixth,
It really appears the Disnneyland VP is talking about staying one more day on the same vacation.
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Old 08-17-2012, 02:35 PM   #204
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Is it possible that they are not selling 6 day passes right now to curtail crowds while Carsland is new but will be bringing them back?
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Old 08-17-2012, 02:38 PM   #205
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But you misunderstood my hypotheticals. I am all too aware that there is not a 7-day PH or anything like that. I was putting out that as a suggestion to your $51/day floor-price theory. The floor price does not prevent from creating options for people who want to stay longer than five days.
No, I understood it. And, I don't know why DLR isn't willing to do what you are suggesting beyond what I offered as my guess: I suspect the ticket prices are set where they are to maximize profit *on average*. Having a highly-graduated per-day cost probably encourages more "average" guests to stay a little longer. A more flat per-day cost would be more beneficial to the hard-core fans, but the hard core fans are outnumbered by the "average" guests who might decide that two or three days is fine vs. four or five.

Edited to add: and I don't think a blended scheme (highly graduated early, and smoothed late) would work. Guests wouldn't understand why the fifth day costs only $15 more, but the sixth costs $50.

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Legitimate guests, who if they are persistent enough, can extend their tickets by finding the right person.
Cory, you seem to be suggesting that TDA is relying on word-of-mouth that people who want to stay for more than five days can extend their tickets to limit the downside risk of the new ticketing structure. Do I understand that correctly?
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Old 08-17-2012, 02:53 PM   #206
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Guests wouldn't understand why the fifth day costs only $15 more, but the sixth costs $50.
Agreed. This thread is about guests not understanding why the fifth day costs $15 more and the sixth day costs $87-$125.
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Old 08-17-2012, 02:58 PM   #207
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Cory, you seem to be suggesting that TDA is relying on word-of-mouth that people who want to stay for more than five days can extend their tickets to limit the downside risk of the new ticketing structure. Do I understand that correctly?
I don't think they are relying on anything. I do think they have access to the number of 6-day passes sold in years past, and I do think they believe a large portion of the 6-day passes were bought with nefarious intentions. I believe they are removing the 6-day pass option and seeing where the chips fall. And they will deal with the legitimate guests on a case-by-case basis. Lower level cast members are likely told to just not sell any upgrades, but leads can help confirm the intentions of the guests and get them what they want. Several reports so far have corroborated that theory.
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Old 08-17-2012, 03:09 PM   #208
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My boyfriend and I will be staying 8 nights at the Grand Californian next May so I hope we have no trouble adding more days to whatever park hoppers we will purchase.
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Old 08-17-2012, 04:40 PM   #209
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The problem is it hasn't stopped the scalpers from selling tickets by the day. While the scalpers are not making as much money they are still making money. Looking for coupons for universal on ebay last night I found a seller selling tickets for mutiple parks in the area including disney. It seems like they could easily find the places in the area selling these tickets since they advertise all over the internet.
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Old 08-17-2012, 04:52 PM   #210
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This thread is about guests not understanding why the fifth day costs $15 more and the sixth day costs $87-$125.
Well, why does the 10th day at WDW cost $10.65, but the 11th cost $94.79-$128.80?

I'm afraid we'll have to agree to disagree on the root cause. And, in some sense, the root cause doesn't matter, because right now, for most guests who aren't doggedly persistent, the limit is five days, regardless of their "legitimacy."

We'll see if it is still possible to get an exception to the five-day limit as we go forward. My sense from anecdotal reports is that it is getting harder to find someone who will do it. I am assuming that by the time I go in February (a new calendar year) it will no longer be possible, but I will be pleasantly surprised if it is.
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