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Old 02-25-2012, 08:57 PM   #1
GoofyGirl75
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Crowd level numbers- easywdw vs. touringplans

Hi. I've used touringplans in the past, and I've recently discovered easywdw (which I love, btw), but I noticed that the crowd level numbers vary quite a bit.

For example, TP has Memorial Day weekend and the days surrounding it at 9's and 10's, whereas easywdw has them at 6's and 7's.

Is it because they measure different things (TP measures line waits, whereas easywdw measures actual number of people, I think?), or do they actually have different predictions in the amount of crowds for that time period?

(If this was already discussed in a previous thread, kindly point the way...I wasn't able to find it.)

Thanks!
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Old 02-25-2012, 10:32 PM   #2
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I subscribe to TP and we compared both TP and easyWDW on our December 2011 trip. With the exception of the first 2 days, easyWDW was closer in how the parks felt to us. There was one day that easyWDW and TP differed on the best park. We went to the easyWDW preferred park and had a great day.

I believe in TP and their methods. They've been getting some grief that the numbers seem off lately, but none of us truly know the numbers they base their data on.

That being said, unless TP knows something that the rest of us don't... last year's Memorial Day weekend was closer to a 5-7 so I doubt this year will be a 9/10. Last year wasn't bad. I was there May 27-June 4 last year and we followed TP recommendations every day but the last two. We fought major crowds the last two days. The overall feel still wasn't over a 6 in MK on our last day and it was a park to avoid.
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Old 02-25-2012, 11:02 PM   #3
Colleen27
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I think TP's numbers have erred on the high side for a while now. Or maybe I'm just kidding myself because I want to go for Memorial Day and hate crowds.

There is the Girl Scout event this year that I expect will make it more crowded than the same weekend last year. How much more, I couldn't even begin to guess... Right now the site has the event at <15% full, but who knows what "full" is for something like that.

ETA: I just read your sig... That's what I'm planning to do too - surprise my dd10 with a special trip for the GS100th! I'm still waffling a bit between Epcot and DC but leaning Epcot simply because I know my son would be more upset to be left out of DC.
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Old 02-25-2012, 11:34 PM   #4
GoofyGirl75
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Thanks for the responses!

We actually left the day before Memorial Day last year, and it wasn't bad at all crowd-wise. Also, touringplans didn't have any predictions in the 10's for that time frame last year, so I don't know why they have higher expectations this year?

I'm pretty sure the CM on the phone told me the capacity was 2000 people per day (Sat. and Sun.) for the bridging ceremony. That's a lot of people, but I wouldn't have any idea of the impact that would actually make on the crowds at WDW. (One source I just looked at--no clue if it's reliable-- said an average of 130,000 people visit the parks each day, so it doesn't seem like the GS event would have THAT much impact.)

Also...a lot of people (myself included) may be holding off on purchasing the tickets b/c they are non-refundable. That makes me kinda nervous, but one of these days I'll probably go ahead and bite the bullet. The percentage of those planning to attend might go up quite a bit closer to the deadline.
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Old 02-25-2012, 11:40 PM   #5
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I'm not familiar with easyWDW, but I have long thought that TP numbers were off. I specifically recall their predictions for SW weekends at DHS a few years back and they definitely over predicted crowds then.
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Old 02-26-2012, 12:37 AM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigdaddy511 View Post
I'm not familiar with easyWDW, but I have long thought that TP numbers were off. I specifically recall their predictions for SW weekends at DHS a few years back and they definitely over predicted crowds then.
Actually that was true for ESPN weekend too last year and made me think that TP overestimates the impact of special events. They had crazy-high numbers compared to the surrounding weeks and marked Studios as the park to avoid all weekend, but we didn't find it to be that bad... TSM waits peaked at 90min, and even on a best day with a 2 crowd level in Jan the standby was 80min by mid-afternoon.
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Old 02-26-2012, 12:53 AM   #7
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I like the UG. I like touringplans.com They've never steered me wrong.

I don't know about any other sites except Tour Guide Mike. When TGM was the darling of the DIS, I checked it out and hated it. For years people went on about how awesome it was. It wasn't.

I'm not making the same mistake twice. Sticking with TP.com
Quote:
Originally Posted by Colleen27 View Post
Actually that was true for ESPN weekend too last year and made me think that TP overestimates the impact of special events. They had crazy-high numbers compared to the surrounding weeks and marked Studios as the park to avoid all weekend, but we didn't find it to be that bad... TSM waits peaked at 90min, and even on a best day with a 2 crowd level in Jan the standby was 80min by mid-afternoon.
I don't blame them. I was dragged into ESPN weekends for years by boys I love and they were always ridiculously crowded.

I do not like sporting events to begin with but could have tolerated it if it weren't for the crowds. It was the crowds that made me dread the ESPN thing.

If you lucked out and didn't have a crowded ESPN day, consider yourself lucky.
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Old 02-26-2012, 11:37 AM   #8
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Thanks for the responses, guys. Don't get me wrong...I'm not knocking touringplans.... I've used their crowd levels and park recommendations in the past and have always been pleased. I like easywdw, too, but I haven't visited the parks since I learned about it, so I don't know firsthand how accurate it is.

I was mostly just curious if their predictions are even supposed to mean the same thing. I think I read that TP uses a percentile ranking, so a 10 for them should mean some of the most crowded days of the year...right? (Please correct me if I'm wrong.)

Anyway, I guess what I'm saying is, I wondered if they could both actually be right, depending on what/how they are measuring?

However, in the case of Memorial Day weekend, I hope TP is WAY overshooting and easywdw is right!
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Old 02-26-2012, 12:28 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kaligal View Post
I'm not making the same mistake twice. Sticking with TP.com I don't blame them. I was dragged into ESPN weekends for years by boys I love and they were always ridiculously crowded.

I do not like sporting events to begin with but could have tolerated it if it weren't for the crowds. It was the crowds that made me dread the ESPN thing.

If you lucked out and didn't have a crowded ESPN day, consider yourself lucky.
I wonder if maybe declining attendance is part of why the event was cancelled, because it certainly wasn't crowded last year and didn't get scheduled at all this year. There were some crowds around the stage and for the special events at the theatre, but not terrible and the ride wait times were quite low.
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Old 02-26-2012, 12:51 PM   #10
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I used EasyWDW last May and thought they were pretty spot on.

But I'd used Touring Plans 2 years before in August and wasn't unhappy either.

I just think EasyWDW prints out better, Josh's format is pretty much exactly what I'd done up for myself the previous trip, just with less work done by me.

I like less work for me.http://www.wdwinfo.com/images/smilies/goodvibes.gif
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Old 02-26-2012, 05:28 PM   #11
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Definite vote for easywdw these days. I was a TP fan in the past, but think their numbers are way out of whack now from anything I've experienced over the past 8 years or so of trips.
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Old 02-27-2012, 11:24 AM   #12
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I've made this recommendation to TP before and it would be a great feature for easywdw, too. I would like to see them provide data showing how good their predictions have been. TP does have historical data, but there is no way to see that they predicted a 10, but it actually turned out to be a 3.
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Old 02-27-2012, 11:35 AM   #13
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We have used both for our past few trips, used to be TP only user. I find easywdw's recommendations more in line with my personal experience. We hop alot and have tested out thier best vs worst parks and find that easywdw.com is more accurate for what we feel the crowds are like in the past year or so.

BTW I also am hoping for low crowds that week and that TP is flat out wrong.
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Old 02-27-2012, 11:49 AM   #14
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doogan View Post
I've made this recommendation to TP before and it would be a great feature for easywdw, too. I would like to see them provide data showing how good their predictions have been. TP does have historical data, but there is no way to see that they predicted a 10, but it actually turned out to be a 3.
Actually, they do have that information. If you go into the historical data, and then click on a specific day, it will show a chart at the bottom that shows their predictions for each park vs. actual crowd levels.
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Old 02-27-2012, 02:05 PM   #15
GoofyGirl75
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Doogan View Post
I've made this recommendation to TP before and it would be a great feature for easywdw, too. I would like to see them provide data showing how good their predictions have been. TP does have historical data, but there is no way to see that they predicted a 10, but it actually turned out to be a 3.
So when you look at their historical data, is it showing the actual crowds for that day, or their predictions for that day?

ETA: Nevermind...posted before reading MisWal's post. I'm going to go look at that right now. Thanks.
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Last edited by GoofyGirl75; 02-27-2012 at 02:07 PM. Reason: Posted before reading all posts
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