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Old 02-15-2012, 09:12 AM   #136
eandesmom
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Fuzzy Disney Math - DVC Style - and Slushie Credit Quiz #1!

Here’s what I looked at.

1. The cost of a typical vacation, assuming we are either renting a villa or booking 2 deluxe rooms, or a deluxe that sleeps 5.

This was an obscene amount of money at rack rate and really depressed me when I looked at it. LOL! Then again, we’ve never paid rack rate. The renting in this scenario was CRO rack rate, not renting points.


2. Same as the above but assuming a 25% PIN
3. Same as above but also looking at 30, 35 and 40% PIN codes (our last big trip was a 40% beauty).

As you might imagine, the cost came down if a PIN was involved. I used to get a ridiculous amount of PIN codes. In fact, the last one I used was basically good for something crazy like a 7 month period with very few blackout dates. I am not sure I’ve gotten a single WDW one since. I do receive DLR ones on a fairly regular basis though, even though we haven’t been there in almost 2 years now as well. Go figure.

4. The “true” cost of any points I’d buy. This would be total points per year, x years of points, divided by the price plus the annual per point dues fees added back in. This is how much I’d actually be paying, per point, for the lifetime of my contract. Granted, with dues the number will creep up slightly, year to year due to dues increases. This varied, depending on how many points, and which resort we were looking at.

5. The rental value of points (assuming $10 per point).

I then compared the costs of scenarios 1-3 to what the same would be in true cost and rental value. I also did it specifically, for what we were considering for THIS trip.

The question would be, what would this look like, in a direct purchase scenario? I have an annual expenditure amount that has been semi consistent for our bigger trips. If I assumed I’d be spending that money regardless either at rack rate or some kind of discount (which is a very safe assumption for us based on our history, recent and otherwise), would there be savings, and if so, how much?

In my scenario, specific to this particular trip and the various options I was considering…looking at the true cost of my points as described above DVC = a 53% discount off of rack rate. There were scenarios where it was more and some where it could be less all depending on the choices I made. That’s the thing that became clear…the benefit really isn’t equal for all rooms and all seasons and all resorts. Not rocket science of course. For example, weekends can be not nearly the savings that weekdays are, one bedrooms not the savings a studio is. I think most folks that have been around the boards a bit are aware of that and certainly all of the owners are. I’d known that when we started considering this but it did help to have some concrete examples to work with. #5 was important simply to understand the value of what I was buying, should I have the need to rent it out at some point, if for whatever reason I couldn’t use my points.

How long would it really be before the investment paid for itself and my “true” cost then became just my maintenance fees? That of course makes the savings go WAY up. Models showed anything from 3-4 trips to 10 trips or 10+ years…what did our scenario look like if I really modeled it out????

In our scenario, which was comparing apples to apples (i.e. deluxe or villa to DVC) it pays off much more quickly than someone who would otherwise be staying at a value or a mod. Honestly, I’m not sure even in my fuzzy Disney math world I could make a value model pencil at all as it’s apple to…grapes maybe. Not oranges. And I know lots of people buy DVC to move “up” from Values and Mod’s and it is far harder to make a business case in that scenario, especially direct. However, that hasn’t been our travel habit. In that respect I guess I am their target market. LOL!

There are a couple of different ways to look at this.

1. Conservative view. Look at how much was saved off of rack rate per vacation. Those savings is what is paying off the investment. In this scenario it REALLY varied, depending on how I used those points. Did I blow them all for larger rooms and fewer nights or get a ton of nights in a studio? Depending on how I played this out it looked like 4-5 trips.

2. Fuzzy Disney Math view. Look at the value of the trip at rack rate or a medium sized PIN code as what is paying off the investment. Looking at it this way really assumes you aren’t saving anything initially, but rather prepaying for vacations. In that scenario we were looking at 2-3 trips.


If I was going to spend the same amount of $$ annually anyway, was savings even truly a factor or would this just be prepaying what I'd spend anyway?

See point 2 above

What was the goal? Saving or access?

For us? Access. Access to the villas. Access to laundry in the room and kitchens. Access to certain locations at certain times of year. The reality is that we’d be prepaying to start and saving, later. We’d be staying at condo’s or deluxes either way. DVC could give us access to on site “condo’s” which we wouldn’t have otherwise as even with a 45% PIN, the villa prices via CRO are insane. If we saved at the same time? Bonus. We would save. Not a ton over a killer PIN to start but after 3 trips? Not to mention, you can’t count on those darn PIN codes. Or even public deals. Yes, you can predict that there may be a good chance of something and if you do have an AP, then your chances are higher I’d imagine at least in terms of access to some kind of discount. Once that initial investment was realized? In one scenario alone it then looked like 80% off of rack rate. Difference between direct and resale once the investment is paid off? None. Dues are dues. Difference in benefits? Important to some and not at all to others. It was important to us. Could they change it (the current direct purchase “perks”)? Yes. Did it hedge bets? Maybe. Did it feel more “secure”? Yes. And that is a purely emotional response, not a pragmatic financial one.


I liken it to the iphone.

I just got one.


Did I need it?

No.

Did my old phone work?

Yes (well sort of…as a phone for sure, all the other stuff…not so much)

Was there a cheaper option that might have been almost as good?

Most certainly.

Did I consider anything else, despite all the horrible press right now?

No.

Does that make it ok?

Maybe, maybe not.

Do I really care?

Probably not as much as I should!

Do I love it?

Yes!

Is there stuff I actually liked better on my old phone and might miss a little?

Yes.

Did that change my mind?

No.


Did I mention I love spreadsheets?

The reality is, you can make a spreadsheet say almost anything you want it to, it’s all about how you look at the numbers. For us, though we’d looked at it seriously in the past, this was the first time that the numbers really told a tale that seemed to make a lot of sense for what our personal vacation goals and needs were. Then again, when you go into something wanting it to make sense…Fuzzy Disney math can take over when you least expect it. And that's my disclaimer for bookeeper Heidi!

Ok. This makes sense. At least to me. remember, I'm in bed, post sinus surgery with spreadsheets and a laptop. I can probably make anything make sense if I play around with the numbers long enough.

What next? How many points and where? And how important is use year anyway?

Slushie credit quiz #1! PM me your answers. Prizes awarded in the form of Slushie Credits!

1. How did I get Jeff on board with this?
2. Where did we buy?
3. Why?
4. How many points?
5. How did we figure out how many points?

Bonus questions

6. What use year did I pick?
7. Why?



Last edited by eandesmom; 02-15-2012 at 10:29 AM.
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Old 02-15-2012, 09:20 AM   #137
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do you win a prize for getting them right?
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Old 02-15-2012, 09:38 AM   #138
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Old 02-15-2012, 10:24 AM   #139
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I recently enjoyed your Alaska TR, and I'm really liking this pre-TR, too! As "fuzzy" as it may be, the breakdown and thought process about DVC is really helpful. We just recently started considering it, but we don't have a solid "vacation history" to compare to. We've skipped vacations the last few years in order to complete our family via 2 adoptions, and having kids now has mixed up our pre-kids travel habits. I'm excited to see what/where you bought!
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Old 02-15-2012, 11:15 AM   #140
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eandesmom View Post
Slushie credit quiz #1! PM me your answers. Prizes awarded in the form of Slushie Credits!

1. How did I get Jeff on board with this?
2. Where did we buy?
3. Why?
4. How many points?
5. How did we figure out how many points?

Bonus questions

6. What use year did I pick?
7. Why?


1. sex

I know the answer to number 2 but all the other questions are too overwhelming for me, so I guess I will have to forgo my slushie credits. Good luck to whoever knows the answers to these questions. I just want to hear about the rest of the trip. Get on with it!
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Old 02-15-2012, 11:38 AM   #141
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chilly View Post
do you win a prize for getting them right?
Slushie credits! I updated the post to say what you win. We will have quizzes throughout...grand prize at some point or another.

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I've PM'd you
got it!

Quote:
Originally Posted by marciemouse View Post
I recently enjoyed your Alaska TR, and I'm really liking this pre-TR, too! As "fuzzy" as it may be, the breakdown and thought process about DVC is really helpful. We just recently started considering it, but we don't have a solid "vacation history" to compare to. We've skipped vacations the last few years in order to complete our family via 2 adoptions, and having kids now has mixed up our pre-kids travel habits. I'm excited to see what/where you bought!
Hi and ! Kids definitely change things, and as they age..it changes again!

Congrats on your growing family, that's wonderful.

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1. sex
I am so totally telling Jeff that is your answer!

Quote:
Originally Posted by MEK View Post
I know the answer to number 2 but all the other questions are too overwhelming for me, so I guess I will have to forgo my slushie credits. Good luck to whoever knows the answers to these questions. I just want to hear about the rest of the trip. Get on with it!
Aw, not even a guess?
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Old 02-15-2012, 12:03 PM   #142
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My head is tired after reading through this

Pm you my answers
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Old 02-15-2012, 12:07 PM   #143
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MEK View Post
1. sex
I'm sitting here, quietly eating my lunch, taking five minutes to get on the Dis to alleviate some of my excitement and this is what I read!

And, Cynthia, that looks exactly like a reading comprehension quiz.
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Old 02-15-2012, 12:34 PM   #144
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Originally Posted by mousescrapper View Post
My head is tired after reading through this


Quote:
Originally Posted by mousescrapper View Post
Pm you my answers
Got 'em!

Quote:
Originally Posted by tinacaplan View Post
I'm sitting here, quietly eating my lunch, taking five minutes to get on the Dis to alleviate some of my excitement and this is what I read!
Apparently the DIS doesn't block that word after all!


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Originally Posted by tinacaplan View Post
And, Cynthia, that looks exactly like a reading comprehension quiz.

Well yes, and no. Given that most of the questions are related to items I've never talked about, those are just conjecture on anyone's part which levels the playing field.

A couple of the questions have had hints either in this PTR or previous PTR's TR's.
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Old 02-15-2012, 12:42 PM   #145
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I don't 'know' you enough to PM answers although MEK's answer for #1 was what I was thinking too!

See I guess it is better if I don't PM any answers.

I'm curious to see the answers to your questions.
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Old 02-15-2012, 01:19 PM   #147
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I don't 'know' you enough to PM answers although MEK's answer for #1 was what I was thinking too!

See I guess it is better if I don't PM any answers.

I'm curious to see the answers to your questions.
LOL! You don't actually need to know me well to play. Most would be a crapshoot for anyone as I've not mentioned anything specific. On a couple of items there might have been hints in this PTR or others but again, nothing specific.

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Just PMd you my awful guesses!
got 'em!
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Old 02-15-2012, 01:22 PM   #148
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Woah, I was WAY behind!!!

A belated Happy Birthday! Hope you had a great day! And enjoy the trip Jeff planned out.

Add me to the list of people stunned that the boys have not enjoyed warm, play in the sand and surf beach time. I have always lived within 30 minutes of the coast, so the beach is just a way of life for me. I'm hanging on the edge of my seat to see how your beach time will shape up.

I was excited when you mentioned Key West. Mark and I spent our 10th wedding anniversary there (July 1996, BK). We were there during Hemingway days, and you couldn't turn around without running into a JH lookalike. I did actually make the pilgrimage to the Margaritaville there.

PMed my guesses. I can't pass up a quiz! Can't wait to see the answers.
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Old 02-15-2012, 01:44 PM   #149
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Woah, I was WAY behind!!!

A belated Happy Birthday! Hope you had a great day! And enjoy the trip Jeff planned out.
Thanks! Excited for it but have a LOT to do between now and then. Somehow I'm supposed to make place cards for a party that I won't be attending and don't yet have a guest list for. I have kid stuff tonight, a work function tomorrow night and seeing Oklahoma! and dinner with my sisters on Friday. They will dump me at the airport on the way home for a work trip. Guess I have to pack for all of it...tonight after trombone?

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Add me to the list of people stunned that the boys have not enjoyed warm, play in the sand and surf beach time. I have always lived within 30 minutes of the coast, so the beach is just a way of life for me. I'm hanging on the edge of my seat to see how your beach time will shape up.
We get plenty of beach but it's lake beach, and they love it. It's not the same as the ocean though, that's for sure. Warm surf? Nope. It was a huge bummer that it wasn't warmer on the 2 CA beach afternoon's we had, we have tried but the weather just didn't cooperate. I really don't think they have a clue what they are missing!

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Originally Posted by natebenma View Post
I was excited when you mentioned Key West. Mark and I spent our 10th wedding anniversary there (July 1996, BK). We were there during Hemingway days, and you couldn't turn around without running into a JH lookalike. I did actually make the pilgrimage to the Margaritaville there.
I was going to revoke your Parrothead status if you said you didn't go there.



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PMed my guesses. I can't pass up a quiz! Can't wait to see the answers.
got 'em!
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Old 02-15-2012, 04:26 PM   #150
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Originally Posted by tinacaplan View Post
I'm sitting here, quietly eating my lunch, taking five minutes to get on the Dis to alleviate some of my excitement and this is what I read!

And, Cynthia, that looks exactly like a reading comprehension quiz.
It IS! That's why I can't answer this stuff at work. My head is already spinning from my crappy day and then I start to read Cynthia's SAT test and I just go blank. But I am going to pm you now. I'll play along. It's the Why? questions that are hanging me up. My answer is "just because".

Oh - for the record - I am sticking with my original answer to question #1!
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