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Old 09-16-2011, 08:42 PM   #1
SwampPeople
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Touring plans crowd levels

My week is oct. 15-22. Only availability on disney site is the four values and one or two deluxe villas. Touring plans shows crowd levels under around 1-3 that week. How can that be with the resorts so booked up.
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Old 09-16-2011, 09:37 PM   #2
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But you don't have any idea how booked up the off-site hotels are. During free dining, the Disney resorts are nice a full, but the surrounding off-site ones suffer. They offer free dining BECAUSE it's a low crowd time.
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Old 09-16-2011, 09:39 PM   #3
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Because TP.com is frequently incorrect and simply preys on easy-minded Disney tourists to fork over valuable cash and subscribe to their nonsense. TP uses previous years' performances (although they have no inside track into Disney's actual numbers - Disney does not release this info to anyone) and they pretend to use it to "predict" upcoming traffic. Ever hear the expression "past performance is not indicative of future results"? That describes TP perfectly.

To answer your question specifically, that week will be very heavy with occupancy and attendance at WDW. Pay no attention to TP.com. They are wrong as usual. There are many events and conventions taking place in WDW that week, not to mention it is the week prior to Halloween with MNSSHP and Free Dining, etc. It will be very busy. Ignore TP.com.
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Old 09-16-2011, 10:15 PM   #4
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There are several major conventions and a PGA tournament during that time. That is why there is no free dining and low resort availability. All the crowd predictors, including free ones, show fairly light crowds. My experience with the crowd predictors have been excellent. Most of the people in the resorts will not be touring the parks. The one exception is that locals will be at EPCOT Food and wine festival Friday and Saturday.
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Old 09-16-2011, 10:23 PM   #5
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Previously, the crowd calendar at TP was specific to wait times at the rides. Not sure if that has changed or not. Anyway about that there are three major events the week you indicate that would fill up hotel rooms, but not significantly increase the crowd level at the parks on any given day. There is MNSSHP at MK, F&W at EP, and a major golf tournament.
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Old 09-16-2011, 10:52 PM   #6
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TP.com is just another tool to keep in your planning tool box

The crowd calendar is said to reflect the line wait time for rides.

Now with their Lines application, TP.com *is* actually gathering their own real data as one of the basis for their wait time forecasts. It's not meant to reflect resort capacity.

The lines app was very helpful for us on our last trip (in combination with the crowd calendars and touring plans themselves) as I could check wait times across the park in real time to assist in determining our next destination.

Using data in a scientific approach to help guests better plan and get the most value for their vacation dollars (for only 9 bucks) is far from nonsense.
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Old 09-17-2011, 07:55 AM   #7
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My understanding is that TP always assumes the on-site hotels will be 80-85% full. If they're not, Disney will offer promotions -- such as free dining -- in order to fill those hotels. The biggest factor in the crowd calendar is off site occupancy. Apparently they aren't expecting the off-site hotels to be very full during that time.
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Old 09-20-2011, 10:25 AM   #8
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You will be there during my week - I originally booked ASMo (2 rooms for our 5 people), realized POR would be cheaper with one room and planned on changing the reservation once a discount came out. THe discount never happened - although my sister who is coming down a week earlier was able to get free dining (UGGH - I would have saved $1500 but we couldn't travel any earlier !!!). When I tried to upgrade to POR - all rooms that would house 5 were booked up over 3 months out.

I did some research and found out there is a huge conference that has blocked off large amounts of rooms at certain resorts - which included POR and most of the Epcot resorts and I think CS. This is a very large conference (Gartner I think - not sure on spelling) - combine that with the golf tournament and you have large crowds in the mod and deluxe resorts. I am hoping that the lower park crowds will be worth the fact I didn't get a discount. I have read multiple posts from people that have traveled this week in the past (that included this conference) say that the low crowd level predictors are correct. Normally we travel Columbus Day week and the crowd levels go up and down but our fall break was a week later than normal.
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Old 09-20-2011, 12:38 PM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mom of 2, Wife of 1 View Post
Because TP.com is frequently incorrect and simply preys on easy-minded Disney tourists to fork over valuable cash and subscribe to their nonsense. TP uses previous years' performances (although they have no inside track into Disney's actual numbers - Disney does not release this info to anyone) and they pretend to use it to "predict" upcoming traffic. Ever hear the expression "past performance is not indicative of future results"? That describes TP perfectly.

To answer your question specifically, that week will be very heavy with occupancy and attendance at WDW. Pay no attention to TP.com. They are wrong as usual. There are many events and conventions taking place in WDW that week, not to mention it is the week prior to Halloween with MNSSHP and Free Dining, etc. It will be very busy. Ignore TP.com.
TP.com was spot on for us last year for every single day of our trip. There is a big difference between resorts being crowded and the parks having long lines. TP is based on how long the rides are at major attractions, not how many people are staying on Disney property. One really has nothing to do with the other. Like a PP said, there are more people onsite, less people OFF site. In the end, the total people in the parks is still the same. You'll have a harder time getting a chair by the pool than you will getting on Space Mountain
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Old 09-20-2011, 01:15 PM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mom of 2, Wife of 1 View Post
Because TP.com is frequently incorrect and simply preys on easy-minded Disney tourists to fork over valuable cash and subscribe to their nonsense. TP uses previous years' performances (although they have no inside track into Disney's actual numbers - Disney does not release this info to anyone) and they pretend to use it to "predict" upcoming traffic. Ever hear the expression "past performance is not indicative of future results"? That describes TP perfectly.

To answer your question specifically, that week will be very heavy with occupancy and attendance at WDW. Pay no attention to TP.com. They are wrong as usual. There are many events and conventions taking place in WDW that week, not to mention it is the week prior to Halloween with MNSSHP and Free Dining, etc. It will be very busy. Ignore TP.com.
Wow, don't you sound bitter? I'm thinking that you were burned by their application in the past.

TP is actually a very useful tool and provides valuable information specific to park #'s and wait times. We've gone to WDW the last 3 years, heading down this same week this year, and have found their information to be spot on. Crowd levels of 1 and 2 were entirely accurate each year. You might want to consider just how big the Gartner convention is, and how many rooms they've booked, before making such statements. Just because folks have a room booked doesn't mean that the parks are going to be at capacity- and I'm not the first person to say this.
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Old 09-21-2011, 06:19 PM   #11
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I will be there roughtly the same time period. I have a subscription to touring plans and they just sent an email this morning with updated crowd levels. They jacked them all up. Some day's the level is said to be a 8 our of 10. Hard to believe, I'm hoping they are wrong. Also, I believe that Friday the 14th that most schools in Florida will be closed so I suppose they all go to disney?

On the flip side, I believe that Disney made an adjustment to their park hours. I'll have to compare what they are showing to what I have written down but it looks like some day's the MK will be open till 10 to 11pm and I don't recall that being the case a few weeks ago. In fact they show the MK open till 11pm on Friday the 14th but on Friday the 21st it closes at 7pm.
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Old 09-21-2011, 07:04 PM   #12
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What numbers do they give for the 17th thru the 21st? If you don't mind me asking?
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Old 09-21-2011, 07:16 PM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flapbreaker View Post
In fact they show the MK open till 11pm on Friday the 14th but on Friday the 21st it closes at 7pm.
Friday closes at 7 because of the MNSSHP that night.
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Old 09-21-2011, 09:12 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by SwampPeople View Post
What numbers do they give for the 17th thru the 21st? If you don't mind me asking?
Overall they look very favorable with the highest being a 4 lowest is a 1.
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Old 09-22-2011, 08:02 AM   #15
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Originally Posted by flapbreaker View Post
Overall they look very favorable with the highest being a 4 lowest is a 1.
Thats not bad at all. The only days we will be in the parks are 17-21 so if crowd levels are 1 to 4 i'm not concerned at all.
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