Crowd Calendar is not to be believed, IMHO

[DisneyFanSince71]

I see so many DISers placing WAY TOO MUCH stock in the Touring Plans' Crowd Calendar. IMHO, it is based on outdated and faulty information and I wouldn't believe it more than my own instincts.

Below is an excerpt from their own website as to how they come up with their rankings

Wait Times For our latest recommendations, our Orlando-based data collection team visited the parks at least seven straight days each month from January through October, 2005. Each day, the team wrote down the standby wait and FASTPASS distribution times for the park's most popular attractions, every 30 minutes, from park opening to park closing. In the Magic Kindgom, for example, the team collected statistics at the 27 most popular attractions. The team also stood in line at key rides to ensure the posted wait times corresponded to the actual wait times.

My points ..
1)Touring Plans last did a survey four years ago. Gee, do you think anything has changed since then (Free Dining, Major Recession, TSM, Everest)?

2) They didn't even survey in the month of November, but it doesn't seem to stop them from making a prediction for that month

3) I might get flamed for this, but I think its wrong to call your self an expert and have good people think about changing vacation plans when the "expert" hasn't done their due diligence.

4) Their "scientist" is based in Canada

It is INCREDIBLY HARD for Disney to predict park attendance and they have all kinds of information that Touring Plans doesn't have with its 4 year old information. Same for airlines, its very hard to predict demand which explains why they are constantly raising/lowering fares.

My conclusioin is that Touring Plans' Crowd Calendar is better than nothing, but not by much.

[RMulieri]

I don't believe it is set in stone, but in my 22 visits to WDW using it, it has been pretty darn close to accurate.This year is a little difficult I think with deluge of specials Disney is raining down to "pack em in".

[kennythepirate]

I find that their predictions are usually right on the money, provided you follow their recommendations for best parks. The only factor that has caused them to be off a number or so is ride breakdowns, which causes an instant adjustment. They update their predictions regularly to raise or lower them based on current conditions. I believe they also regularly tour the parks to keep their information current. Do you knoow of a site that does a better job of crowd prediction?
Oh, they just introduced a mobile websiite with daily/hourly ride line predictions.
M.touringplans.com

[GoHerbie]

You don't need a crowd calendar if you just think about it a little...

MK on any Sat & Sunday will be crowded.
MK on any day with Spectro/Wishes will be more crowded.
Any park with extended morning or evening hours will be more crowded.
Any park with special events (i.e. Osborne lights starting Nov 10 at HS, Epcot food & wine festival, MK overpriced Christmas party) will be more crowded.
HS on any day with Fantasmic will be more crowded.

You should be able to steer around all those major events to reduce crowds, but definitely check for updated schedules closer to the trip. For our trip last week they added a lot more fantasmic nights which could dampen your day if you were intent on avoiding it.

[Bete]

Most of it can be hit or miss; so, why bother? Most of it is common sense, too. If you're a newbie, I suppose it helps a little.

I've been going for over 30 years and I've never relied on these kinds of forecasts.

I do think Touring Plan could keep a tally to see how accurate they are lately and change it some due to the new information like you mentioned. Also, I would like to know how their percentage of being right or wrong goes on this one, but alas I don't think that will happen.

[FigNewton]

Yes, the detailed survey was conducted in 2005. Should we care? Not especially. It would be absolutley absurd to expect that type of survey to be conducted very often. While that initial survey was used to build the statistical formulas, that is not the only data used to determine the crowd calnedar. It's not the ONLY time data has been collected. The team regularly checks projections against reality and when the calendar has been way off they've talked about it and why they think the statistics went wrong.

I don't know what your problem is with Hazelton but there doesn't seem to be any reason for passive aggressive attacks on him by with the word scientist (I've always seen him referred to as statistician) in quotes or complaining that he lives in Canada (completely irrelevant where he lives).

In th end the crowd calendar is just another tool. It's a statistical predictive tool which is by definition imperfect. Choose to use the tool or don't. But casting aspersions on their professional credibilty is absurd.

[Praying Colonel]

Originally Posted by fignewton

yes, the detailed survey was conducted in 2005. Should we care? Not especially. It would be absolutley absurd to expect that type of survey to be conducted very often. While that initial survey was used to build the statistical formulas, that is not the only data used to determine the crowd calnedar. It's not the only time data has been collected. The team regularly checks projections against reality and when the calendar has been way off they've talked about it and why they think the statistics went wrong.

I don't know what your problem is with hazelton but there doesn't seem to be any reason for passive aggressive attacks on him by with the word scientist (i've always seen him referred to as statistician) in quotes or complaining that he lives in canada (completely irrelevant where he lives).

In th end the crowd calendar is just another tool. It's a statistical predictive tool which is by definition imperfect. Choose to use the tool or don't. But casting aspersions on their professional credibilty is absurd.

QFT.

BTW, today they're rolling out their free iPhone app, Lines. Read about it here.

[The Iron Giant]

It is only a guide and more often than not its pretty accurate. I don't think you can expect it to be perfect.

[Allison]

The most important part of your post is that it is your opinion. Others think differently and find it a useful tool.

[Praying Colonel]

.

[kennythepirate]

Originally Posted by Praying Colonel

QFT.

BTW, today they're rolling out their free iPhone app, Lines. Read about it here.

http://m.touringplans.com

[Maggi May]

Those darn Canadians and their metric system!

[jaysmom4285]

http://blog.touringplans.com/2009/05...wd-prediction/

They did check their predictions earlier this year and found them to be very close to actual wait times. As others have noted, the guide is generally pretty accurate. And people often forget that the "rating" is based on wait times in minutes only at MK for headliner attractions at peak hours. It isn't meant to be a general 1-10 scale of how crowded the parks are generally on any given day. I think too many people try to extrapolate the numbers to be something they aren't.

[DisneyFanSince71]

Originally Posted by FigNewton

Yes, the detailed survey was conducted in 2005. Should we care? Not especially1. It would be absolutley absurd to expect that type of survey to be conducted very often2. While that initial survey was used to build the statistical formulas, that is not the only data used to determine the crowd calnedar. It's not the ONLY time data has been collected. The team regularly checks projections against reality and when the calendar has been way off they've talked about it and why they think the statistics went wrong.

I don't know what your problem is with Hazelton but there doesn't seem to be any reason for passive aggressive attacks on him 3by with the word scientist (I've always seen him referred to as statistician) 4in quotes or complaining5 that he lives in Canada (completely irrelevant where he lives).

In th end the crowd calendar is just another tool. It's a statistical predictive tool 6which is by definition imperfect. Choose to use the tool or don't. But casting aspersions on their professional credibilty is absurd.

My counterarguments
1- It seems that to talk of "statistics" and bring 5-year old data as the basis of the argument is incongruent. What has changed in 5 years: Major recession, new rides/attractions, free dining, more parties, Fantasmic not happening everyday, EMH scheduled irradically. I would think that most mathematical people would not agree with you that the date the information was gathered is irrelevant

2 - That's your strawman, I didn't write that. But I think that there are better ways to get that information

3 - I didn't mention him

4 - You are correct, I should have said statistician.

5 - I wasn't complaining about his being in Canada, just stating that he is 1500 miles from the area where he is forecasting. There is a benefit to being in the area.

6 - My opinion is that it is "statistically predictive" as a calendar and knowing when Disney has scheduled F! and EMH.

[biz410]

Originally Posted by Praying Colonel

QFT.

BTW, today they're rolling out their free iPhone app, Lines. Read about it here.

If it was truly free you would get what you pay for. The app gives estimated wait times based on old data (guessing), not current waits like the other apps or the new Disney site itself.

But being the new UG, the app is free ("for a limited time") but you need a paid subscription to make it work. So after they test it, looks like you'll have to buy the app PLUS pay for a subscription. All for a service inferior to all the free ones.

It's my guess that the UG people started this a long time ago but weren't able to get it out before the others. By the time they finished, it was outdated.