Past Attendance and/or Future Crowd Predictions?

[Anjelica]

I know there are various sites to view previous attendance and future crowd predictions for Disney World but is there any for Disney Land?

[DLR29]

I do know of one site that is particularly helpful in predicting crowd patterns for DLR.....



But if you're looking for something like Touring Plans with a specific # that corresponds to a predicted crowd level or a TGM that gives you a Red/Yellow/Green, there is nothing like that for DLR.

However, if you post some dates on these boards, people will be MORE than happy to tell you how crowded those dates are. Or if you are looking for a more general sense of crowds, DLR is crowded during the same times that WDW is crowded (Spring Break, Summer, Christmas), but also some other times such as Halloween/October weekends and most long weekends/local holidays.

[Albort]

none of the sites an accurately portray crowd levels based off of last years model due to the new variable introduced last year.

Disney went from a good 200k APs --> 800k APs in counting... APs affect crowding very well.

[Anjelica]

Originally Posted by DLR29

I do know of one site that is particularly helpful in predicting crowd patterns for DLR.....



But if you're looking for something like Touring Plans with a specific # that corresponds to a predicted crowd level or a TGM that gives you a Red/Yellow/Green, there is nothing like that for DLR.

However, if you post some dates on these boards, people will be MORE than happy to tell you how crowded those dates are. Or if you are looking for a more general sense of crowds, DLR is crowded during the same times that WDW is crowded (Spring Break, Summer, Christmas), but also some other times such as Halloween/October weekends and most long weekends/local holidays.

We are going Friday November 20th and heading on out on November 25th - before Thanksgiving. But I was also curious about other times of the year like the beginning of June, etc.

Originally Posted by Albort

none of the sites an accurately portray crowd levels based off of last years model due to the new variable introduced last year.

Disney went from a good 200k APs --> 800k APs in counting... APs affect crowding very well.

WOW - 800k AP's - that's a 400% jump - what caused the jump?

[Leofoenget]

Originally Posted by Anjelica

We are going Friday November 20th and heading on out on November 25th - before Thanksgiving. But I was also curious about other times of the year like the beginning of June, etc.



WOW - 800k AP's - that's a 400% jump - what caused the jump?

the $6 month automatic payment plan for the cheapest So Cal AP

Plan on moderate to heavy crowds Some schools have that whole week off before TG

[Eeee-va]

Folks here have been saying that the week around Thanksgiving will likely be very crowded (I found the Sunday before Thanksgiving to be almost intolerable, myself). They are also saying that early June is better for crowds but the hours are shorter and there is less entertainment.

ONE reason (not the only one) for so many AP holders is that Southern California residents can get a very cheap AP (some were cheaper than what we paid for 5 days' admission!) and even spread it out on installments. I think at the lowest point it was something around $12/month to get the lowest level AP! And residents who want to visit the park any day of the year can do so with monthly payments, putting their bill at something like $40/month, which is quite doable. (Those figures are all estimates.)

Also, with the economy, people are opting to stay close to home and there are a LOT of people living close to Disneyland!

With the Annual Passholders in place, the park has generally become insanely crowded for the first few days of anything new and exciting--some AP holders (and in fairness, some others, I suppose) don't mind staking out a place for Fantasmic at maybe 2 PM if it means seeing the new dragon for the first time, whereas someone who doesn't visit often would likely not want to "waste" all that time. But an AP holder could come back next week if he/she wanted.

Also, many of the annual passes are blocked out on some or all weekends, and most of them are blocked out for holidays and periods Disney anticipates will be "busy." Oddly enough, these projected "busy" times are in some cases LESS busy because so many potential guests aren't able to visit without buying a blockout ticket! I heard reports that Easter and 4th of July were reasonable or even nice as far as the number of visitors. For 4th of July, Disney anticipated HUGE crowds--if they eventually materialized, it was for the fireworks show, I think. I remember reading that much of the day was quite uncrowded, certainly not as busy as they'd thought it would be.

So anyway, it looks like there are still a few "off-season" times. Crowd levels appear to have been low the previous few days, as Christmas is about to kick off but hasn't yet. But October, which several years ago was a peaceful time to visit, was a madhouse most of last month in part because of the continued promotion of "Halloweentime" (as well as the AP holders visiting in general).

You can view blockout dates at http://www.disneyland.com/ap/ if you are curious. If I hadn't bought an AP I would be very tempted to time my vacation to GO on those days when most APs are blocked out! (I'm not sure about the week after Christmas, though--I think it will probably be quite crowded, but with the blockouts I do think there's an outside chance that it might be pretty nice.)

[InLikeSin]

Not to highjack but since we are talking crowd predictions... what do you guys think of the first weekend in Dec (the 4-6th)? Is there any reason to expect higher than normal weekend crowds?

[DangerMouse]

Originally Posted by InLikeSin

Not to highjack but since we are talking crowd predictions... what do you guys think of the first weekend in Dec (the 4-6th)? Is there any reason to expect higher than normal weekend crowds?

Yes, there is. The Candlelight Processional will be having 2 performances on both Saturday and Sunday evenings. Expect a very crowded DL and especially Main Street in the afternoon/evening on both those days.

[DLR29]

Originally Posted by Anjelica

We are going Friday November 20th and heading on out on November 25th - before Thanksgiving. But I was also curious about other times of the year like the beginning of June, etc.


WOW - 800k AP's - that's a 400% jump - what caused the jump?

Very good post!
|
V

Originally Posted by Eeee-va

Folks here have been saying that the week around Thanksgiving will likely be very crowded (I found the Sunday before Thanksgiving to be almost intolerable, myself). They are also saying that early June is better for crowds but the hours are shorter and there is less entertainment.

ONE reason (not the only one) for so many AP holders is that Southern California residents can get a very cheap AP (some were cheaper than what we paid for 5 days' admission!) and even spread it out on installments. I think at the lowest point it was something around $12/month to get the lowest level AP! And residents who want to visit the park any day of the year can do so with monthly payments, putting their bill at something like $40/month, which is quite doable. (Those figures are all estimates.)

Also, with the economy, people are opting to stay close to home and there are a LOT of people living close to Disneyland!

With the Annual Passholders in place, the park has generally become insanely crowded for the first few days of anything new and exciting--some AP holders (and in fairness, some others, I suppose) don't mind staking out a place for Fantasmic at maybe 2 PM if it means seeing the new dragon for the first time, whereas someone who doesn't visit often would likely not want to "waste" all that time. But an AP holder could come back next week if he/she wanted.

Also, many of the annual passes are blocked out on some or all weekends, and most of them are blocked out for holidays and periods Disney anticipates will be "busy." Oddly enough, these projected "busy" times are in some cases LESS busy because so many potential guests aren't able to visit without buying a blockout ticket! I heard reports that Easter and 4th of July were reasonable or even nice as far as the number of visitors. For 4th of July, Disney anticipated HUGE crowds--if they eventually materialized, it was for the fireworks show, I think. I remember reading that much of the day was quite uncrowded, certainly not as busy as they'd thought it would be.

So anyway, it looks like there are still a few "off-season" times. Crowd levels appear to have been low the previous few days, as Christmas is about to kick off but hasn't yet. But October, which several years ago was a peaceful time to visit, was a madhouse most of last month in part because of the continued promotion of "Halloweentime" (as well as the AP holders visiting in general).

You can view blockout dates at http://www.disneyland.com/ap/ if you are curious. If I hadn't bought an AP I would be very tempted to time my vacation to GO on those days when most APs are blocked out! (I'm not sure about the week after Christmas, though--I think it will probably be quite crowded, but with the blockouts I do think there's an outside chance that it might be pretty nice.)

Because of this recent increase of AP holders, crowd levels have become less predictable (at least this year), but I'd bet that the beginning of Thanksgiving week might have a fair amount of crowds, while Thanksgiving itself and the friday after will be less crowded.

Also, Eeee-va is absolutely right about early June. This past year, late June was PACKED! Early June was MUCH better, crowd-wise. However, the hours were shorter, the entertainment was not running at full capacity, and DL closes very early on some nights for Grad Nights (doesn't affect crowds, but significantly affects park hours and Magic Mornings).

[HydroGuy]

Something makes me think the reported 200k to 800k jump over a year is not realistic. Yes, the latest numbers are 800k but I seem to remember Al Lutz talking last year about there being 600-700k AP holders.

The bottom line is that today there are 800k AP holder and as others have said that has a huge influence on attendance at certain times of the year.

See:

"The Psychology of the DLR Annual Pass Holder" http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2244322

"Al Lutz - New DLR Prez, World of Color to open April 24, Passes needed to see WoC?" http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2307603

[Anjelica]

Interesting and VERy helpful.

I noticed the non-premium blockout date of November 21st - a Saturday. We planned on doing DCA that day as I thought Saturday would be busier than Sunday for Disneyland - hence I planned Saturday, November 21st for DCA and Sunday, November 22nd for Disneyland - do you think that is a good plan or now based upon the blackout for Saturday, November 21st would it make more sense to do Disneyland on Saturday and DCA on Sunday?

[jescal75]

Originally Posted by InLikeSin

Not to highjack but since we are talking crowd predictions... what do you guys think of the first weekend in Dec (the 4-6th)? Is there any reason to expect higher than normal weekend crowds?

we have gone the 1st weekend in Dec the last 3 years and the crowds were fine we didn't wait very long in any line. We like it because it is after the Thanksgiving rush and before the X-mas one.

[GrandBob]

Originally Posted by Anjelica

Interesting and VERy helpful.

I noticed the non-premium blockout date of November 21st - a Saturday. We planned on doing DCA that day as I thought Saturday would be busier than Sunday for Disneyland - hence I planned Saturday, November 21st for DCA and Sunday, November 22nd for Disneyland - do you think that is a good plan or now based upon the blackout for Saturday, November 21st would it make more sense to do Disneyland on Saturday and DCA on Sunday?

Actually, the Deluxe APs are also OK for the 21st. The SoCal APs are blocked out on Saturday, and SoCal Select are blocked on both Saturday and Sunday.

But to answer your question. ALL the DIS vets here will tell you NOT to think in terms of a park a day, as you would in WDW. The two parks are literally 50 yards from each other. Hop every day! Usually, the best plan is to start each day at DL, and hop to CA when DL gets crowded, or whenever you feel like it. Plan your evenings based on entertainment you may want to see.

HTH,
Bob

[JustAKid]

Originally Posted by DLR29

Also, Eeee-va is absolutely right about early June. This past year, late June was PACKED! Early June was MUCH better, crowd-wise. However, the hours were shorter, the entertainment was not running at full capacity, and DL closes very early on some nights for Grad Nights (doesn't affect crowds, but significantly affects park hours and Magic Mornings).

Will the same be true now that they have extended the dates until the 1st of July before APs start blacking out?

[Leofoenget]

Originally Posted by DLR29

Very good post!
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V

Because of this recent increase of AP holders, crowd levels have become less predictable (at least this year), but I'd bet that the beginning of Thanksgiving week might have a fair amount of crowds, while Thanksgiving itself and the friday after will be less crowded.

Also, Eeee-va is absolutely right about early June. This past year, late June was PACKED! Early June was MUCH better, crowd-wise. However, the hours were shorter, the entertainment was not running at full capacity, and DL closes very early on some nights for Grad Nights (doesn't affect crowds, but significantly affects park hours and Magic Mornings).

I went late June, granted mid week not weekend, but it wasn't THAT bad. But that was after the cheapo AP's were blocked out, but before the second tier.