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Old 07-26-2011, 05:41 PM   #481
bdtracey
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Alright so first off I'm a huge numbers geek...*cough* engineer *cough*...so I built a spreadsheet to see when I'd be "in the green"/paid off. Second, DW and I just bought 250 points at SSR (re-sale) so keep that in mind when you read what I have to say after the scenarios below.

From what I can see you guys generally stay at a moderate resort. When I evaluated the purchase for my family we assumed that we'd be staying at a moderate resort as well. First off, lets assume that you'll be staying 10 nights per trip at a moderate. Also, I'll take a 200 point contract at AKV with current dues of $5.01/point with a re-sale purchase price of $75/point (initial buy in = $15,000).

Scenario 1:
Mod resort; preferred room
7% increase in rate/year
Room discount 30% for every trip
Annual dues increase per year of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 14 TRIPS

Scenario 2:
Mod resort; preferred room
7% increase per year
0% room discount
Annual dues incrase of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 9 TRIPS

Scenario 3:
Mod resort; preferred room
3% increase per year
20% room discount
Annual dues incrase of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 18 TRIPS

Scenario 4:
Mod resort; preferred room
3% increase per year
0% room discount
Annual dues incrase of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 11 TRIPS

Scenario 5:
Studio at Saratoga Springs Resort (just something I had in the spreadsheet)
3% increase per year
30% room discount
Annual dues incrase of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 9 TRIPS

Scenario 5:
Studio at Saratoga Springs Resort
3% increase per year
0% room discount
Annual dues incrase of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 6 TRIPS

The whole idea behind DVC is that you're "pre-purchasing" your vacations. Also, these numbers are based off of a re-sale property. Purchasing through Disney would cost you a lot more. Honestly, by looking at the numbers and how many trips it would take you to break-even you'll have to go down a bunch. This is the downside to owning DVC if you're used to staying at a moderate. Our past trip in May we stayed 6 nights at Coronado Springs and 8 nights at Saratoga Springs. There is a HUGE difference between the two resorts, in my opinion. Our kids were almost 3 and just over 1 so it was a bit different for us. We ended up staying at the resort a lot and spent a lot more time in our room (afternoon naps) and at the pool. There are so many activites to do there and it has a great feel.

There is a lot to say about the emotional attraction to owning DVC...seeing as you're on the DIS Boards I'm going to go ahead and assume that you know exactly what I'm talking about. Being able to take your daughters and possibly grandchildren down in the future for a vacation I'm sure sounds pretty appealing. If you guys go down every other year you'd be able to bank/borrow points to have enough to get everyone into a 2 bedroom villa or possibly a grand villa. This totally changes the economics because you're now cutting out an additional hotel room or possibly 2.

I can tell you right now that even though we've just purchased our DVC contract DW and I aren't even looking at the break-even analysis anymore. We're planning how and where we can use our points. I'm sure I'll eventually figure out where we're at in terms of break-even. For us, we were very blessed to have the lump sum available and didn't have to take out a loan. We knew that Disney was going to get our money one way or another and we decided to give it to them all at once since we had it available.

All in all, is this a financial investment...definitely not. It is, however, something that my family has a passion for and something we talk about on a daily basis.

Wow...hopefully you don't mind my thoughts but this is something I just went through and thought it might help you out some.

If you were just looking for the scenarios without the blabbering...my apologies.
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Old 07-26-2011, 05:52 PM   #482
Ted in Halifax
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Do you have your scenarios in a spreadsheet?
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Old 07-26-2011, 11:19 PM   #483
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dis_guy View Post
So there's our situation. In your opinion(s) does a DVC purchase make sense?
We love our DVC

but a warning

We too ran all the numbers prior to buying
We ran them based on a studio. It seemed logical given there are only three of us and a studio is similar to a regular hotel room.
We started with 160 pnts at SSR
We now have 560 pnts spread between SSR, AKV, BCV & VWL and normally we get a two bedroom not a studio. We often invite friends to justify the two bedroom but we would likely get a two bedroom even for just the three of us. Love the washer & dryer in the room. Like having breakfast in the room and often have a large TS lunch and then fruit, cheese and wine in the room in the evening.

Saying this we do not regret the purchase and will probably buy a few more pnts. We are also in our mid 50s and can see spending the month of January in a one bedroom.

While we love AKV we generally only spend one or two nights there. Love the resort & Saana (sp) but do not like the distance to everything. Enjoy the resorts you can walk at.

Given the size of AKV unless you want a value or concierge you will probably be able to get a room at 7 months. With the lower resale price & dues SSR is probably the best value. SSR gets a lot of bad press but we like it. If being close to the parks is important to you I would buy at VWL for MK or BC for EPCOT or DHS.
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Old 07-26-2011, 11:50 PM   #484
bdtracey
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Ted - I kind of have all of those scenarios in my spreadsheet. You just have to manipulate a couple of the cells to make it happen. I know most people have their own spreadsheets but I'm more than happy to share mine if anyone is interested...simply PM me.
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Old 07-27-2011, 12:35 AM   #485
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bdtracey, I am blown away! Thanks for your analysis. I actually did figure on a 1 bedroom villa for my guestimating. I was figuring it would take 10 yearly trips to break even, though what I was doing was nowhere what your spreadsheet did. Thanks ABCanada, your insights are also appreciated.
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Old 07-27-2011, 10:41 AM   #486
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Awesome! How about if you are used to staying in a deluxe resort all the time.

We usually stay in the Epcot resort resorts.
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Old 07-27-2011, 04:11 PM   #487
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It's beginning to look like we might benefit from a DVC purchase. To me anyway, not so sure about my wife.

Just one more question. I certainly understand the advantages in buying resale but I'd be interested in knowing what incentives Disney has been offering. Perhaps someone who has recently bought DVC from Disney might be able to let me know?

Thanks again for all your help.
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Old 07-27-2011, 07:17 PM   #488
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dis_guy View Post
It's beginning to look like we might benefit from a DVC purchase. To me anyway, not so sure about my wife.
interested in knowing what incentives Disney has been offering.
Best to monitor the DVC Operations thread for this information. The most recent incentives are over and people are waiting to hear what the new ones will be. The incentives tend to be a bit better on cruises and from special events. Again, if you monitor the DVC Operations thread any changes or speculation will be discussed.

Here is the most recent thread:
http://www.disboards.com/showthread.php?t=2764155

http://www.dvcnews.com/index.php/dvc...g-a-promotions reports any of the incentives in an easy to follow format. They also have a good table on the MF history.

Unless you are purchasing BLT or VGC purchasing direct, even after incentives, will be significantly higher.

Advantages of purchasing direct:
Points available immediately
Closing costs lower
If your use year is after your purchase date you get the prior year's points (which they will let you bank even after your banking date) and only pay MF from the purchase date for the current year.
No restrictions on use of points

Good luck with the decision
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Old 07-27-2011, 10:14 PM   #489
bdtracey
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mom_rules View Post
Awesome! How about if you are used to staying in a deluxe resort all the time.

We usually stay in the Epcot resort resorts.
Right now I have SSR put into the spreadsheet. For ease of use lets say you're looking at 200 points at $65/point.

Beach Club, 10 nights, Standard View, avg $340/night
3% increase in rate/year
Room discount 30% for every trip
Annual dues increase per year of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 8 TRIPS

Beach Club, 10 nights, Standard View, avg $340/night
3% increase in rate/year
Room discount 0% for every trip
Annual dues increase per year of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 5 TRIPS

Beach Club, 10 nights, Water/Pool View, avg $425/night
3% increase in rate/year
Room discount 30% for every trip
Annual dues increase per year of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 5 TRIPS

Beach Club, 10 nights, Water/Pool View, avg $425/night
3% increase in rate/year
Room discount 0% for every trip
Annual dues increase per year of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 3 TRIPS

From what I can see, the more expensive room you stay in the quicker the DVC Membership pays for itself....which makes sense.

Surprisingly, I took another look at my numbers our break-even compared against staying at a moderate resort is 11 trips without any room discounts. If there is even a 20% room discount our break-even point is now at 17 trips. I just need to convince myself that at some point we'd start staying in a deluxe resort
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Old 07-28-2011, 12:57 PM   #490
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bdtracey View Post
Right now I have SSR put into the spreadsheet. For ease of use lets say you're looking at 200 points at $65/point.

Beach Club, 10 nights, Standard View, avg $340/night
3% increase in rate/year
Room discount 30% for every trip
Annual dues increase per year of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 8 TRIPS

Beach Club, 10 nights, Standard View, avg $340/night
3% increase in rate/year
Room discount 0% for every trip
Annual dues increase per year of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 5 TRIPS

Beach Club, 10 nights, Water/Pool View, avg $425/night
3% increase in rate/year
Room discount 30% for every trip
Annual dues increase per year of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 5 TRIPS

Beach Club, 10 nights, Water/Pool View, avg $425/night
3% increase in rate/year
Room discount 0% for every trip
Annual dues increase per year of 3.2%
PAID OUT AFTER 3 TRIPS

From what I can see, the more expensive room you stay in the quicker the DVC Membership pays for itself....which makes sense.

Surprisingly, I took another look at my numbers our break-even compared against staying at a moderate resort is 11 trips without any room discounts. If there is even a 20% room discount our break-even point is now at 17 trips. I just need to convince myself that at some point we'd start staying in a deluxe resort
Great! Thanks so much.
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Yacht Club Concierge April 2004
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Old 07-28-2011, 03:15 PM   #491
Vodo
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Talking Finally buying in...

With the current exchange rate we finally decided to buy into DVC. :-)

Currently waiting on ROFR with Disney on a resale contract for 225 points at SSR. I suspect additional points will be added not long after, lol...
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Old 08-18-2011, 11:45 AM   #492
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Please add us to your list.

Members since Sept. 2009 220 points at SSR Just passed ROFR for another 100 points at SSR.
We added on because we love to go to Disney (5 trips down since becoming members) and are planning to go again this Oct.

It's nice to crunch all the numbers but once you vacation as a member and enjoy all the luxury of the accommodations, you make every excuse to go.
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Old 08-22-2011, 06:02 PM   #493
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We have bought two SSR contracts direct from Disney back in 2005 and 2006 and only wish we had more....
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Old 09-20-2011, 12:20 PM   #494
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Officially members now with 225 points at SSR and 200 points at BWV, with 100 points at AKV currently waiting on ROFR...
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Old 10-14-2011, 03:47 PM   #495
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We are official now too! We now own 160 pts at Aulani... can't wait to start using our points!
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