Ths DIS is a great place to ask Disney Cruise Line questions and share tips.
Dreams Unlimited Travel - The official sponsor of the Disney Cruise Forums Dreams Unlimited Travel - the official sponsor of the Disney Cruise Forums  

Go Back   The DIS Discussion Forums - DISboards.com > Disney Cruise Line > Disney Cruise Line Forum
Find Hotel Specials & DIScounts
 
facebooktwitterpinterestgoogle plusyoutubeDIS UpdatesDIS email updates
Register Chat FAQ Tickers Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read



Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 12-17-2013, 05:09 PM   #1
dsnydaddy
DIS Veteran
 
dsnydaddy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Central Valley, CA
Posts: 1,984

Just how much DID DCL jack up prices in 2015?

This is the question that I asked myself as I am planning our Oct 2015 trip on the Fantasy. I've been reading all the horror stories that you have so I wanted to look into the prices myself to determine the answer.

First, I gotta tell you the answer is very difficult to determine. First off, I looked on the opening prices for 2014 thread and and determined that there seems to be a problem with the data contained therein. The obvious problem is that everyone knows that as the Disney Ships fill they tier up. Meaning that the prices go to the next tier and as a result if the sailing was particularly popular the opening day prices could be tiered up and there's no real way of knowing that. The other problem that I have was that there's really only 4 months of 2015 released and if you look at the opening prices thread for the Fantasy, there's only January and February that have a lot of respondents. March and April have relatively few. Now for the more insidious problem that I had with the data from this thread. I'm going to go "not very far out on a limb" here and say that most of us who frequent the DCL portion of the DIS have been on more than one cruise. And up until the recent changes we all keep a dummy date in our pocket for opening day. Right? Now, I find it HIGHLY unlikely that of the 24 respondents for opening day only 2 of them had OBB. I believe that a great many of these prices reflect a 10% discount but which ones? See what I mean? The data is dirty.

Now go on to comparing current prices for Jan-Apr 2014 to the prices for Jan-Apr for 2015. This data is even worse. Why? Because all the cruises are less than 5 months away and have all tiered up. Add to the mix that the Fantasy is alternating Eastern and Western cruises in 2014 and the Fantasy and Magic have these cruise split between them for 2015 and you include a new layer of complexity to comparisons. Now here's another monkey wrench thrown in that you need to adjust for. The Fantasy's inside cabins tend to be higher priced than the Magic's. And the Magic's Verandah's then to be higher priced than the Fantasy's. Sheesh! It's enough to give one a headache.

So today I sat down and made a comparison sheet for the two years to see how much has really changed price wise. Here's my findings:

Disclaimer: I chose one cabin form the Inside, oceanview and verandah categories to compare. I also looked at the cheaper cruises because it is my contention that the more popular cruises have tiered up and as a result are much more difficult to compare. I also factored for just two to a cabin because varying ages of the 3rd and 4th passengers can really mess up a comparison. I also only looked at the Fantasy 2014 and the Fantasy/Magic 2015 cruises. I didn't want to be bogged down in too much complexity.

If you simply look at booking a cruise in the next 4 months and the price you would pay compared to waiting for the newly released dates in 2015 you would see a substantial savings in waiting. Lending credence to the oft rendered advice to book early. The actual savings was all over the map due to the varying degrees that individual cruises have tiered up. but you could save as little as 1% to as much at 37% (in only one instance) by booking a 2015 cruise. But critics would point out (and they would be correct) that this is an unfair comparison and that you would need to compare opening day prices to see what if any price increases have occurred.

So, I added to my spreadsheet the opening day prices. Now, bear in mind... I only had really two months of data January and February had a lot of data whereas March and April had relatively few respondents. Here's where I had really seen the OBB problem. Percentage-wise I see that the 2015 Fantasy/Magic prices are approximately 13-25% over the Fantasy 2014 opening day prices. That's a suspicious spread because it's right around the 10% OBB figure. In other words. If I work a price quote off the DCL website I get a number without discount. And if I take the opening day prices at face value I see a jump in DCL's prices of about 13-25% but if you assume (and I do) that some respondents did not report the OBB when they reported their opening day prices then you get a more moderate 3-15% price increase over 2014. Now, I know that 15% really isn't that moderate but again take into account that these prices have been out for a while and some have tiered up. That will account for about a 5-10% boost.

Here's my conclusion. When opening day prices went up. It appeared to me that everyone shopping for a cruise were looking to book the same few weeks. That caused the prices to tier up rapidly and make it look like prices jumped dramatically (and realistically they had) Plus, those most likely to report unsavory numbers are the ones most shocked by the price jump. But one has no way of knowing at which tier that the respondent received their quote.

So, while everyone has been crying doom and gloom, it really looked to me like the prices (at least those that I looked at) were not to far removed from the previous year.

I'm sure that I'll probably get flamed a bit. But I'm not thinking that the prices looked too incredible.
__________________
dsnydaddy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2013, 05:27 PM   #2
TitanBrett
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 495

Week before Halloween on the fantasy in a 7a has been very similar for 2012, 2013 and 2014. Within 5 percent.

Concierge went up like crazy for 2014 though. I paid $5200 for a cat v for oct and that's like $7200 on 2014
TitanBrett is offline   Reply With Quote
|
The DIS
Register to remove

Join Date: 1997
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 1,000,000
Old 12-17-2013, 05:28 PM   #3
NurseDave
Mouseketeer
 
NurseDave's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 342

It is....what it is.
__________________
NurseDave is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2013, 06:03 PM   #4
dsnydaddy
DIS Veteran
 
dsnydaddy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Central Valley, CA
Posts: 1,984

Quote:
Originally Posted by TitanBrett View Post
Week before Halloween on the fantasy in a 7a has been very similar for 2012, 2013 and 2014. Within 5 percent.

Concierge went up like crazy for 2014 though. I paid $5200 for a cat v for oct and that's like $7200 on 2014
That's basically what I've been finding too. So, I've not been too scared about what I'll find when October 2015 is released.
__________________
dsnydaddy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2013, 06:04 PM   #5
dsnydaddy
DIS Veteran
 
dsnydaddy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Central Valley, CA
Posts: 1,984

Quote:
Originally Posted by NurseDave View Post
It is....what it is.
Very Zen!
__________________
dsnydaddy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2013, 06:08 PM   #6
bumbershoot
DIS Veteran
 
bumbershoot's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Tacoma WA
Posts: 46,121

196.62.

Comparing what we paid for our 3-night cat V Dream cruise this Feb with the nearly-the-same-dates Feb 2015 3-night Cat V Dream shown right now.
__________________
-molly + robert + eamon (10!!)

DLR '05-'09 found within this link
DLR 7,9,12 2012 Universal Feb '12 DLR Dec '11 and Feb '12

Made weight goal 1yr8m8days after starting...currently working to maintain 85 lb loss thanks to Weight Watchers!
bumbershoot is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2013, 06:09 PM   #7
TheLanes
DIS Veteran
 
TheLanes's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: San Diego
Posts: 607

FYI: I used an OBB to move my booking to a January 2015 cruise. The price I provided on the opening day thread was without the OBB discount. Not sure why it is even an option to list it, as it only adds to everyone's confusion.
__________________
Brian


March 2007 - 11 night Mex Riviera- Celebrity Mercury
April 2009 - 3 night Baja Mexico - Carnival Elation
April 2010 - 4 night Baja Mexico - Carnival Elation
Feb 2012 - 7 night Mexican Riviera - Disney Wonder

Coming up: Oct 2015 - 5 night Baja Mexico - Disney Wonder

Disneyland: Dozens and dozens of trips!
TheLanes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2013, 07:51 PM   #8
lbgraves
Little Cinderella's Mommy
The bad news is...they are driving me nuts!!!
 
lbgraves's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 48,800

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLanes View Post
FYI: I used an OBB to move my booking to a January 2015 cruise. The price I provided on the opening day thread was without the OBB discount. Not sure why it is even an option to list it, as it only adds to everyone's confusion.
It's an option because when you get your pricing from the TA or DCL with the 10% discount, they don't give you the amount you would have paid without the discount. Opening day for platinum & gold doesn't have the pricing available on the website so it's not like you can check and see what it was at that time, and that is the reason the threads were started. It gives silver & new cruisers an idea of what pricing started at.

To the OP, if you want to get more pricing for 2014 at this point, you can get all categories at cruisefish.net, along with every price increase along the way. The inside stateroom on the Dream and Fantasy sometimes even cost more than oceanview rooms on the same ship. That is because there aren't many of them and the virtual portholes are a novelty that people want to experience. DCL can price them higher and sell them, so they do.

ETA: I just checked cruisefish and they have all the pricing for 2015 so far as well.
__________________
Lisa

Magic: E 11/15/2003, W 12/4/2004, E 12/10/2005, W DD w/ CM 12/9/2006, EBPC 8/2008, W 1/8/2011
Wonder: 3N 1/11/2010, Alaska 7/26/11
Fantasy: MV W w/ CM 3/31/2012, E w/ SJ 3/23/2013



DCL 2015 Opening Day Pricing Thread #3 August - December
DCL 2015 Opening Day Pricing Thread #2 April - August

Past Opening Day Pricing Threads

Last edited by lbgraves; 12-17-2013 at 08:01 PM.
lbgraves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2013, 08:55 PM   #9
TheLanes
DIS Veteran
 
TheLanes's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: San Diego
Posts: 607

Quote:
Originally Posted by lbgraves View Post
It's an option because when you get your pricing from the TA or DCL with the 10% discount, they don't give you the amount you would have paid without the discount. Opening day for platinum & gold doesn't have the pricing available on the website so it's not like you can check and see what it was at that time, and that is the reason the threads were started. It gives silver & new cruisers an idea of what pricing started at. To the OP, if you want to get more pricing for 2014 at this point, you can get all categories at cruisefish.net, along with every price increase along the way. The inside stateroom on the Dream and Fantasy sometimes even cost more than oceanview rooms on the same ship. That is because there aren't many of them and the virtual portholes are a novelty that people want to experience. DCL can price them higher and sell them, so they do. ETA: I just checked cruisefish and they have all the pricing for 2015 so far as well.
My TA provided both costs, not sure why some would hide the total before discount
__________________
Brian


March 2007 - 11 night Mex Riviera- Celebrity Mercury
April 2009 - 3 night Baja Mexico - Carnival Elation
April 2010 - 4 night Baja Mexico - Carnival Elation
Feb 2012 - 7 night Mexican Riviera - Disney Wonder

Coming up: Oct 2015 - 5 night Baja Mexico - Disney Wonder

Disneyland: Dozens and dozens of trips!
TheLanes is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2013, 09:52 PM   #10
lbgraves
Little Cinderella's Mommy
The bad news is...they are driving me nuts!!!
 
lbgraves's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2003
Posts: 48,800

I've never gotten the total cost without the discount. I don't think that it's a matter of anyone hiding something. Most TAs are too busy getting all the quotes for their clients and moving existing reservations to say to get the DCL rep on the phone to give them a totally separate quote. I get the email she receives from DCL confirming the reservation, and it definitely doesn't appear on that.
__________________
Lisa

Magic: E 11/15/2003, W 12/4/2004, E 12/10/2005, W DD w/ CM 12/9/2006, EBPC 8/2008, W 1/8/2011
Wonder: 3N 1/11/2010, Alaska 7/26/11
Fantasy: MV W w/ CM 3/31/2012, E w/ SJ 3/23/2013



DCL 2015 Opening Day Pricing Thread #3 August - December
DCL 2015 Opening Day Pricing Thread #2 April - August

Past Opening Day Pricing Threads
lbgraves is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-17-2013, 10:23 PM   #11
carlnlisa
Earning My Ears
 
carlnlisa's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: Australia
Posts: 67

So I am going to ask a question that will make me sound stupid but I have had very little sleep due to a teething baby and my brain is mostly mush at this time and in no way able to calculate math. Based on your findings how much more do you guess a 1 bedroom concierge suite will be in September 2015 then in September 2014? I have asked the Disney TA we are using but all she said was because September is usually a slow month she suspects it will be close to the same but everything I have read has said to add 20%
__________________
Been living happily ever after for 10 years with DD 9 DS1 7 and DS2 18months

1st disney vacation August-September 2015
carlnlisa is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2013, 12:07 AM   #12
dsnydaddy
DIS Veteran
 
dsnydaddy's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Central Valley, CA
Posts: 1,984

Quote:
Originally Posted by lbgraves View Post

To the OP, if you want to get more pricing for 2014 at this point, you can get all categories at cruisefish.net, along with every price increase along the way. The inside stateroom on the Dream and Fantasy sometimes even cost more than oceanview rooms on the same ship. That is because there aren't many of them and the virtual portholes are a novelty that people want to experience. DCL can price them higher and sell them, so they do.

ETA: I just checked cruisefish and they have all the pricing for 2015 so far as well.
That's a good idea, I'll have to look into that site for my comparisons. Thanks.

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheLanes View Post
My TA provided both costs, not sure why some would hide the total before discount
My TA has never given me the before discount price either. I usually double check things when they come up on the website.

Quote:
Originally Posted by carlnlisa View Post
So I am going to ask a question that will make me sound stupid but I have had very little sleep due to a teething baby and my brain is mostly mush at this time and in no way able to calculate math. Based on your findings how much more do you guess a 1 bedroom concierge suite will be in September 2015 then in September 2014? I have asked the Disney TA we are using but all she said was because September is usually a slow month she suspects it will be close to the same but everything I have read has said to add 20%
Well by my estimates it should be from 5-10% more but as the above poster mentioned... Concierge seems to have jumped even more than the average cabin. I didn't even do the math on these cabins because from my perspective, I'll never really look into those. I've got too much else to spend my money on.
__________________
dsnydaddy is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2013, 07:05 AM   #13
gomagic
Go Bucks!
 
gomagic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: The Buckeye State- Home of TBDBITL
Posts: 756

Quote:
Originally Posted by carlnlisa View Post
So I am going to ask a question that will make me sound stupid but I have had very little sleep due to a teething baby and my brain is mostly mush at this time and in no way able to calculate math. Based on your findings how much more do you guess a 1 bedroom concierge suite will be in September 2015 then in September 2014? I have asked the Disney TA we are using but all she said was because September is usually a slow month she suspects it will be close to the same but everything I have read has said to add 20%
I can tell you just based on opening day prices for March 2014 in a Cat V vs opening day prices for March 2015 in a Cat V(same week) the price more than doubled for 2015 - close to a 55% price increase A week earlier in March 2015, and it was closer to a 40% price increase.
__________________
gomagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2013, 07:09 AM   #14
IBelieveInTheMagic
DIS Veteran
 
IBelieveInTheMagic's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Posts: 3,248

Both our Spring Break cruises were booked on opening day. I was Silver last year when I booked our 4/12/14 Fantasy cruise but Gold this time when I booked 4/4/14. The 2014 cruise we get back the day *before* Easter and in 2015 we would cruise the day before Easter so it would include Easter.

So for true comparisons, per CruiseFish - our 2014 cruise (looking at the 4/19/14 cruise as it would include Easter) it was $1764 for the first two passengers.

Now comparing it to the same time in 2015 it is $2604 for the first two passengers so an increase of $840 *per person* (at least for the first two). This is in a Cat 5E by the way. We booked the 5E for the 2014 cruise, however I'm not willing to pay over $2000 more for the same cabin a year later. Our cruise went up approx 34% and that's NUTS! I understand it's Spring Break and Easter which is why it's not "cheap" to begin with but comparing the same time a year later it shouldn't be 34% higher - ouch. I ended up putting us in a Cat 7A and that is still higher than our 5E in 2014. I'm not too worried about it as this is a "back-up" to Alaska in 2015 however I'm worried Alaska 2015 will go up a lot as well - I hope me and the others that are afraid are really wrong - lol!

Heather
__________________
(Me), (DH), (DS)
WDW: 11/2008 (MVMCP), 9-10/2009 (MNSSHP, F&W, Pirates Pal Cruise & Pirates League), 4/2010 (Flower & Garden Festival & Jedi Training), 10/2010 (MNSSHP & F&W), 6/2011 (SWW & Universal Studios), 11/2011 Girls Trip (MVMCP & Osborne Lights), 6/2012 and 11/2012 (Osborne Lights), and WDW/MNSSHP 10/2013.
DCL (Gold!): 6/2012 (KSC & Dream), 8/2012 Dream, 12/2012 Fantasy (Mom & I), 6/2013 Wonder(Alaska!), 9/2013 Dream (girls cruise) & 12/2013 Dream (girls cruise), 1/2014 Magic, 4/2014 Fantasy & 9/2014 Dream (Mom and I) Next: 12/2014 Wonder & 6/2015 (Magic-Europe)
IBelieveInTheMagic is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 12-18-2013, 07:22 AM   #15
mom4fun
DIS Veteran
 
mom4fun's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Location: michigan
Posts: 699

Quote:
Originally Posted by IBelieveInTheMagic
Both our Spring Break cruises were booked on opening day. I was Silver last year when I booked our 4/12/14 Fantasy cruise but Gold this time when I booked 4/4/14. The 2014 cruise we get back the day *before* Easter and in 2015 we would cruise the day before Easter so it would include Easter.

So for true comparisons, per CruiseFish - our 2014 cruise (looking at the 4/19/14 cruise as it would include Easter) it was $1764 for the first two passengers.

Now comparing it to the same time in 2015 it is $2604 for the first two passengers so an increase of $840 *per person* (at least for the first two). This is in a Cat 5E by the way. We booked the 5E for the 2014 cruise, however I'm not willing to pay over $2000 more for the same cabin a year later. Our cruise went up approx 34% and that's NUTS! I understand it's Spring Break and Easter which is why it's not "cheap" to begin with but comparing the same time a year later it shouldn't be 34% higher - ouch. I ended up putting us in a Cat 7A and that is still higher than our 5E in 2014. I'm not too worried about it as this is a "back-up" to Alaska in 2015 however I'm worried Alaska 2015 will go up a lot as well - I hope me and the others that are afraid are really wrong - lol!

Heather
For 2015 April 4 Cruise got a double wammy price increase because a large portion of schools base their spring break on the week before easter the other big group always has their spring break the first full week of april. So you can see this became even more high demand as a result. Now on the other hand if you wait to go one week later on April 11, it is 1589.00 per first 2 adult cruisers in a 5e cabin. That is much cheaper than 2014 opening day prices even for weeks that did not include easter.
__________________
mom4fun is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

facebooktwitterpinterestgoogle plusyoutubeDIS Updates
GET OUR DIS UPDATES DELIVERED BY EMAIL



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:48 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

Copyright © 1997-2014, Werner Technologies, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

You Rated this Thread: