DVC RESALES
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Old 08-19-2013, 12:12 PM   #31
Plutofan
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I would only buy DVC if I planed on using the points at DVC resorts. You do not typically get a fair value when using points to trade outside of DVC or using points for a Disney cruise.
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Old 08-20-2013, 12:48 PM   #32
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Many people here keeping citing the high costs of DVC ownership as a bad thing. If anyone  DVC or non DVC member - expects to stay in any Deluxe WDW accommodations cheaply, then Im not sure if your expectations are real. WDW is one of the most expensive places to vacation in the U.S. no matter how you slice it. For those of us who enjoy annual or semi-annual WDW getaways, DVC is a vehicle for locking in the resort portion of your annual vacation costs at todays rates. If you buy into DVC through resale, then you can significantly reduce the initial investment cost, but you still must be cognizant of the annual maintenance fees, which will always be there and will increase year over year.

In the long run - and people must look at this investment in terms of a 30, 40 or 50 year commitment (depending on the resort that you are buying into) - DVC can save a significant amount of money on the resort portion of your annual WDW vacations. Yes  you still have to pay for park tickets, food and transportation to and from. DVC ownership offers perks that can and does save money on many of those things as well& such as AP discounts, TIW membership, DME complimentary transportation, etc. However, those perks could be taken away at a moments notice. I dont suspect that these perks will go anywhere anytime soon, but one should not count on these discounts being there indefinitely as part of their financial justification for purchasing into DVC.

Ive posted this in other threads, and my case might be different than others, but this is worth sharing. My 2012 purchase of VWL (resale) virtually paid for itself within the first two years of ownership on one trip alone. I purchased my interest in early 2012. I used all of my 2012 and 2013 points for a 10 day stay in two studios at VWL this past May. In looking at the total cost of my resale investment including closing costs, plus my 2013 maintenance fees, my total buy came in virtually identical to what it would have cost me for two rooms at WL for 10 days out of pocket. So essentially, I have broken even on the initial buy-in with just one trip and two years of ownership. Moving forward, the resort portion of all future Disney vacations will just cost me my maintenance fees, which are currently around $870 per year. So next years 10 day vacation at VWL is going to run me about $96/night. Comparing that to well over $300/night cash, Id say that the cost of ownership should definitely fall into the good category rather than the bad.

Once again, this is my experience only. If you choose to buy direct from Disney and/or choose to finance, then your payback period will be significantly longer than 2 years before you start saving money. Its ultimately up to each individual family to determine what is right for you. There are many factors that play into the financial justification, and for me, buying DVC via resale was a no-brainer. Your experience may vary. Arm yourself with as much information as possible, ask tons of questions (even if you think theyre stupid or have been asked a number of times), and make the best decision for your situation.
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Old 08-20-2013, 01:05 PM   #33
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...My 2012 purchase of VWL (resale) virtually paid for itself within the first two years of ownership on one trip alone. I purchased my interest in early 2012. I used all of my 2012 and 2013 points for a 10 day stay in two studios at VWL this past May. In looking at the total cost of my resale investment including closing costs, plus my 2013 maintenance fees, my total buy came in virtually identical to what it would have cost me for two rooms at WL for 10 days out of pocket. So essentially, I have broken even on the initial buy-in with just one trip and two years of ownership. ....
BUT, if you would never book the exact same lodging for cash direct from Disney without any discount, your numbers are flawed.

We usually stay in a one bedroom villa (or larger) using our points. But the times we pay cash, we don't stay in one bedroom villas. We book moderates at AP rates or deluxes with big discounts (those are rare anymore). Big difference.
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Old 08-20-2013, 01:05 PM   #34
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I second what Plutofan said. I would not buy If I weren't going to DW at least every 2 years. I purchased DVC in 2012 and used it that December. Since then we have been 4 times taking family with us each time. Something I would have never done had I had to pay cash for the rooms. In the 3 years before that we stayed at the polynesian twice and the boardwalk 3 times. Had I already owned I would be pretty close to breaking even. That being said I do not believe DVC saves me money personally. It does exactly what Disney intended it to do, it makes me go more and experience the resorts in ways I never would have had I been going on cash. If you go to DW frequently I think DVC is great but I would not buy to "save money". It just makes you want to go more.
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Old 08-20-2013, 02:22 PM   #35
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BUT, if you would never book the exact same lodging for cash direct from Disney without any discount, your numbers are flawed.

We usually stay in a one bedroom villa (or larger) using our points. But the times we pay cash, we don't stay in one bedroom villas. We book moderates at AP rates or deluxes with big discounts (those are rare anymore). Big difference.

I don't quite understand how the logic is flawed. We needed two rooms for our May trip at Wilderness Lodge, regardless of whether or not I owned DVC. What we would have paid for these rooms on a cash reservation was equal to the cost of my initial DVC investment. I'm not talking about rack rates, either. I'm comparing this against figures that I have actually paid in previous trips prior to my DVC ownership, some of which were with AP discounts. Whichever accomodations I choose to stay at for future trips is irrelevant, as the investment already paid for itself on this one trip alone.

I think what you are trying to convey is this. If you do not always stay in Deluxe accommodations, perhaps DVC is not worth the investment? This statement I would agree with. It does not apply to me, as my Disney vacations always revolve around staying at Wilderness Lodge, my home away from home.
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Old 08-20-2013, 05:02 PM   #36
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BUT, if you would never book the exact same lodging for cash direct from Disney without any discount, your numbers are flawed.

We usually stay in a one bedroom villa (or larger) using our points. But the times we pay cash, we don't stay in one bedroom villas. We book moderates at AP rates or deluxes with big discounts (those are rare anymore). Big difference.
Yep. We'd be able to put four in a standard hotel room - with DVC we happily get a two bedroom - but it isn't cheaper. Without DVC we'd go every three or four years - and probably be done by now - with DVC it was every other year with at least one more trip to go. With DVC, its always been onsite - without DVC, we'd probably have spent the last trip at Windsor Hills or Bonnet Creek.

DVC being expensive isn't a good thing, or a bad thing - its sort of a neutral thing - IF you can afford it. But a lot of people don't realize how much its going to add up over time. Its six figures in dues over the life of your contract. PLUS food, transportation and park tickets (and those under three kids are Disney adults in the blink of an eye). Or aren't disciplined in its use - a lot of us take friends and family on our points - would you pay for your brother's family's hotel room? And there should be the recognition that you give up some flexibility - without DVC there may be years where offsite or Pop make more financial sense - even if you are currently a "we'd only stay Deluxe" family (like the year you get your FAFSA score ).

Andrew - with a certain sized family and the desire to remain onsite, DVC makes more financial sense than a lot of the alternatives (although my frugal cousin does the cabins at Ft. Wilderness with her brood).
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Old 08-20-2013, 10:03 PM   #37
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I have a question about comparing the price if dvc to a cash stay. I recently made a spreadsheet that totals up when I would break even. When figuring out how much it would cost me I put in the cash price column how much it would be to rent points, not stay on cash. That price is pretty different and I am wondering if I am missing something with my math or logic doing that. I would not stay at a value or a moderate. The times in the past when I stayed on property I either rented points or payed cash for gf with a ap discount. Now that Vgf will be there I would rent points. Or do you think my logic of always thinking I could rent points is wrong? Or am I just being anal retentive?
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Old 08-21-2013, 08:20 AM   #38
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I have a question about comparing the price if dvc to a cash stay. I recently made a spreadsheet that totals up when I would break even. When figuring out how much it would cost me I put in the cash price column how much it would be to rent points, not stay on cash. That price is pretty different and I am wondering if I am missing something with my math or logic doing that. I would not stay at a value or a moderate. The times in the past when I stayed on property I either rented points or payed cash for gf with a ap discount. Now that Vgf will be there I would rent points. Or do you think my logic of always thinking I could rent points is wrong? Or am I just being anal retentive?
I think you've made a good comparison as that is how you would typically stay at WDW.

We 1st stayed at POR (a moderate) when my 3 kids were little and then bought DVC the following year. We knew that 5 of us could not stay in a regular WDW room, moderate or deluxe (just too cramped for us). We needed condo or villa style accommodations. We would not pay cash to book a villa on DVC property and would have to go off property and that would take away the magic for me and we likely wouldn't have gone (or go) as often (or at all). While it would not be reasonable for me to compare my owning DVC to paying cash for a villa (same accommodations), I also cannot compare to renting a regular room as we just would NOT do that (maybe would rent 2, like we tend to do with hotel visits in other places). Trying to find a comparison is difficult unless you already always stay in certain accommodations at WDW...like you do.

Just to see, I just checked our Dec dates at POR...for 1 room it is $1423 (12/20-12/25). We are booked in a 2BR at AKV-Kadani. So, 2 rooms at POR would be $2846. We used 189 points. $3280 for a room at AKL...so $6560 for 2 rooms...yikes!

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Old 08-21-2013, 08:27 AM   #39
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I now see the point that you are trying to make, and I apologize, as I had assumed that we were comparing the cost of DVC as compared to other, similar deluxe accommodations. Absolutely – when comparing the cost of a DVC purchase to the cost of staying in value or moderate resort, then DVC becomes increasingly difficult to justify. As mentioned above, for my situation, it was a no-brainer based on my vacation habits, as WL is my go-to spot.

Jill – Without seeing the spreadsheet, I cannot really comment on your math or logic. A few things that I can recommend is to take a historical look at year-over-year maintenance fee increases, come up with an average % for that particular resort, and be sure to factor in these annual increases into your calculations. Be sure to also apply similar logic on the “cash” side by taking into account price increases on cash reservations. Other things to consider on a DVC purchase are misc. transactional expenses like closing costs, title fees, brokerage fees, etc., all of which are negotiable between you and the seller. I can’t offer much insight on developing a model for comparing a DVC purchase vs renting points, as I do not have much experience with this, but I know that renting can be a cost-effective option (if you have some patience to get what you want or the flexibility to take whatever is available at that time). I believe the average going rate these days is $14/point via the main brokers.
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Old 08-21-2013, 11:02 AM   #40
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Jill – Without seeing the spreadsheet, I cannot really comment on your math or logic. A few things that I can recommend is to take a historical look at year-over-year maintenance fee increases, come up with an average % for that particular resort, and be sure to factor in these annual increases into your calculations. Be sure to also apply similar logic on the “cash” side by taking into account price increases on cash reservations. Other things to consider on a DVC purchase are misc. transactional expenses like closing costs, title fees, brokerage fees, etc., all of which are negotiable between you and the seller. I can’t offer much insight on developing a model for comparing a DVC purchase vs renting points, as I do not have much experience with this, but I know that renting can be a cost-effective option (if you have some patience to get what you want or the flexibility to take whatever is available at that time). I believe the average going rate these days is $14/point via the main brokers.
I have a column for MF's and I add 4% every year to it, since I thought I heard that seems to be the average. I was really just wondering why people used the cash number instead of the renting points number. I guess if nothing was available on the points side you would have to pay cash, but I doubt I would...Comparing it that way (renting points) I certainly don't break even for a while, but I am ok with it since I am 99% guaranteed VGF in December if I want it
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Old 08-21-2013, 12:46 PM   #41
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4% is a pretty good figure for arguments sake. Looking at the past 5 years of VWL maintenance fees, the average YOY change is 3.5%, with the lowest year being a 2.7% increase and the highest being a 5% increase.

If you really dont care where you stay and have lots of flexibility, then I would agree that renting points is a pretty good way to go. For someone like myself who has to be at a certain resort, I dont want to roll the dice and hope/pray Ill be able to get what I want.

I crunched some numbers assuming a 4% annual MF increase for the DVC portion, and figured $14/point on the rental side of things, and my breakeven point came out to be 9 years on DVC vs Renting. I did not factor in any annual price increases on rental points, as sometimes, you might be able to get them cheaper (say renting them direct vs using a broker, or catching one of the last minute deals")  so I kept that number static.

I bought my DVC prior to the price increase, and got VWL at the very low-end of what was passing ROFR, so I suspect your break-even point might be even further out. Curious to know what you came up with!
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Old 08-21-2013, 01:26 PM   #42
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I was really just wondering why people used the cash number instead of the renting points number.
I don't think comparing to renting is wrong, but there are reasons why people would compare to discounted cash rooms. The experience of paying cash is the most similar to the experience of booking DVC, though obviously they're all a little different. With cash booking you can cancel up to 5 days before arrival with a full refund, and with DVC you can cancel up to 30 days before arrival with no consequences, and less than that with relatively minor consequences (holding points).

With renting, you have a somewhat more convoluted process, you generally can't cancel or change the booking at all, and there's some small risk of getting scammed. You can't see availability online. To even check if something is available you have to pay a deposit, when using the largest rental broker.

So while in the end you still get the same basic room whether you pay cash for it, rent points, or own DVC, the experience and risk factors are all slightly different and those differences are worth some amount of money. I mean, you wouldn't rent points over paying cash if it only saved you $10/night, right? If you figure out what amount of discount makes renting worth it, you now know what the flexibility and convenience of cash payment is worth to you.
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Old 08-21-2013, 01:58 PM   #43
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I have a column for MF's and I add 4% every year to it, since I thought I heard that seems to be the average. I was really just wondering why people used the cash number instead of the renting points number. I guess if nothing was available on the points side you would have to pay cash, but I doubt I would...Comparing it that way (renting points) I certainly don't break even for a while, but I am ok with it since I am 99% guaranteed VGF in December if I want it
Member fees are allowed to go up 15% each year without including taxes in the increase. So your 4% might be low for future years.
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Old 08-21-2013, 02:15 PM   #44
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4% is a pretty good figure for arguments sake. Looking at the past 5 years of VWL maintenance fees, the average YOY change is 3.5%, with the lowest year being a 2.7% increase and the highest being a 5% increase.

If you really dont care where you stay and have lots of flexibility, then I would agree that renting points is a pretty good way to go. For someone like myself who has to be at a certain resort, I dont want to roll the dice and hope/pray Ill be able to get what I want.

I crunched some numbers assuming a 4% annual MF increase for the DVC portion, and figured $14/point on the rental side of things, and my breakeven point came out to be 9 years on DVC vs Renting. I did not factor in any annual price increases on rental points, as sometimes, you might be able to get them cheaper (say renting them direct vs using a broker, or catching one of the last minute deals")  so I kept that number static.

I bought my DVC prior to the price increase, and got VWL at the very low-end of what was passing ROFR, so I suspect your break-even point might be even further out. Curious to know what you came up with!
I guess this would be the "Ugly" that the OP was referring to I actually only have 3% increase not 4, dang I thought I did 4. OK, with 3% I hit break even at 23 yrs...4% I got nauseous and stopped counting at 40yrs... I will say though, I kept the rental at 14.00 pp which it will surely go up, especially if in 40 yrs the mf is 21.00 pp So basically I have no idea when I will break even BUT, I can't not look at the AP discount, since we were buying ap's before being dvc. I know it could go away at any time, but for the years that I get it, I will add it to my spreadsheet...

dmunsil, I see your point about renting. I was thinking the likelihood of being able to rent points to stay at VGF would be slim. Not impossible, but slim, and I have stayed at GF before waiting for the AP discount and that in itself is enough to make me lose my mind! That is what made me buy VGF. So maybe I should add in some cost of anguish into my calculation (or I guess the cash price has that built in)
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Old 08-21-2013, 03:11 PM   #45
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Keep in mind, the numbers that I used in my calculation to generate a 9 year pay-back vs renting are based on buying VWL via resale @ $50/point. When plugging in the cost to buy VGF direct from Disney, the numbers begin to jump off the spreadsheet!
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