Disney Information Station Logo

Go Back   The DIS Discussion Forums - DISboards.com > Disney Trip Planning Forums > Disney Rumors and News
Find Hotel Specials & DIScounts
 
facebooktwitterpinterestgoogle plusyoutubeDIS Updates
Register Chat FAQ Tickers Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 07-20-2013, 10:18 AM   #16
bcrook
DIS Veteran

 
bcrook's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Missouri
Posts: 4,014

Quote:
Originally Posted by tjkraz View Post
I've skimmed those numbers but frankly it's so littered with assumptions and guesswork that it's impossible to use as any real basis for discussion.
There were quite a few people contributing to those numbers. We researched most of them. The headliners information is out there.

Here is a good example of discussion and verification.

Even if those numbers are not exact, it does provide a good place for conversation.

Quote:
Here is what I know to be true about the current paper FP system:
- It is available at 1/2 to 1/3 of the attractions slated for FP+
- It is available to all guests.
- It can be used at multiple theme parks per day.
- Other than the 2 hour time limit between FPs, there are no limits on the number of tickets you can pull in a single day.
- There are no restrictions on the attractions at which it can be used in a single day (i.e. you CAN get FPs in the same day for Toy Story Mania, Star Tours, Tower of Terror AND Rock N Rollercoaster.)
- FP can be used multiple times at the same attraction in a single day.

With all of that said, under the current system it's very easy to collect 4-6 FPs per day. Many people claim to secure even more than 6 per day.

Frankly I cannot accept that FP+ would be forced to cap all guests at a lower level when:
- There are so many more attractions offered.
- Attractions are grouped to limit access to certain headliners.
- There is (currently) a hard cap of 3 experiences per guest.

Under BOTH systems, there are people who will choose not to use it. There are people who won't understand it and/or not even know it exists. There are people who will allow their ride times to expire unused. There are people who will park hop and be unable to use FP+ at the second (or third, or fourth) destination.
I think one of the differences in the new system is that Disney is highly motivated to get every person staying on and off site hooked up in My Disney Experience and using the magic band, this is where the truly great data comes from. Knowing who is going to be in which park which day.

Disney needs demand for the rides. When rides start booking up in advance, people will see the need to log in and register. There are also fastpicks. And Disney may end up holding 3 for every person who shows up.

I do agree with you on the no shows. That will extend the Fastpass numbers, Disney will know that percentage and "oversell".

Quote:

Overall, the FP+ projections linked above just don't add up, IMO.



I have read unsubstantiated reports that Disney can push it up to 90% FP utilization during busy periods.
But if they consistently run 80%-90% FP lines, standby will be terrible.

Overall, Disney has been very consistent from the beginning: FP+ will be up to three. It really hasn't varied. There is a reason.

And I haven't seen much change from the initial unveiling in January. It looks like they are sticking to their guns. The only thing so far is they have removed the tiers. I don't think that will last. Tiers will provide headliner surplus for the deluxe resorts.
__________________
-Barry
  • FP+ original discussions "What we know, what we want to know" can be found at this site.
  • Best WDW insider fact or story thread.
  • WDW Estimated Ride Capacities

Last edited by bcrook; 07-20-2013 at 03:26 PM.
bcrook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-21-2013, 05:39 PM   #17
tjkraz

DVC Owner SSR
 
tjkraz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Ohio
Posts: 13,265

Quote:
Originally Posted by bcrook View Post
There were quite a few people contributing to those numbers. We researched most of them. The headliners information is out there.

Here is a good example of discussion and verification.

Even if those numbers are not exact, it does provide a good place for conversation.
But it's meaningless conversation if the numbers are worthless.

The only reliable numbers I see are theoretical riders per hour. Beyond that, everything is completely speculative including:

- Fastpass / standby ratios
- Percentage of FPs which go unused
- Percentage of guests who choose to use FP
- Percentage of guests who enter the parks with no intention to ride any attraction

You're using attendance averages to assume every person entering the park is a rider. But there are people who go to Epcot just for dinner, and people who go to the Magic Kingdom just to walk around, and grandparents who go to Animal Kingdom just for the safari and a couple of shows. On numerous occasions i've walked through Epcot just to get to the monorail. I still get counted as a guest, but never came close to riding an attraction.

Not every guest entering the parks is headed for an "E" Ticket....far from it!

Quote:
I think one of the differences in the new system is that Disney is highly motivated to get every person staying on and off site hooked up in My Disney Experience and using the magic band, this is where the truly great data comes from. Knowing who is going to be in which park which day.
Today, there are people who refuse to simply slide their ticket through a machine in order to save 45 minutes of wait time. What makes you think these people are going to pre-plan their movements weeks in advance via a web browser or smartphone?!?

With all due respect, I think you're missing the forest for the trees when it comes to how this is going to play out. The current Fastpass system couldn't be simpler. And it's a very big time saver for everyone who chooses to participate. Yet THOUSANDS of guests each day are CHOOSING not to participate.

Today, on a typical day in any of the four parks, I can get FastPasses for each of the 4-5 headliners within a 7-8 hour visit.

Now suddenly Disney plans to limit my daily access to those headliners AND double or triple the number of offerings at each park.

Disney may be "highly motivated" to get people to use the system, but guests still have to cooperate. Again we're talking about sliding a ticket vs. wristbands/webpages/advance planning. Common sense tells me that FP utilization will not immediately rise as a result.

You could argue that guests will be "forced" to participate if they want to ride the headliners. But people have a way of not liking to be "forced" to do anything. If Disney sets up too many barriers, the most obvious response will be for people to spend their money elsewhere.

I don't blame Disney for being conservative in their FP+ testing and initial implementation. The last thing they want to do is go public with a limit of 4 or 5 FP+ for everyone, and then have to scale it back to 3.

Nevertheless, I think the system has a lot more capacity than your numbers suggest. The FP ratios are unknown. Volume of unredeemed FPs are unknown. And number of admissions who pull limited or zero FPs in a visit are unknown.
__________________
-- Tim

DVC owner at SSR, BWV and VGC
tjkraz is offline   Reply With Quote
|
The DIS
Register to remove

Join Date: 1997
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 1,000,000
Old 07-22-2013, 10:01 AM   #18
bcrook
DIS Veteran

 
bcrook's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Missouri
Posts: 4,014

Quote:
Originally Posted by tjkraz View Post
But it's meaningless conversation if the numbers are worthless.

The only reliable numbers I see are theoretical riders per hour. Beyond that, everything is completely speculative including:

- Fastpass / standby ratios
- Percentage of FPs which go unused
- Percentage of guests who choose to use FP
- Percentage of guests who enter the parks with no intention to ride any attraction

You're using attendance averages to assume every person entering the park is a rider. But there are people who go to Epcot just for dinner, and people who go to the Magic Kingdom just to walk around, and grandparents who go to Animal Kingdom just for the safari and a couple of shows. On numerous occasions i've walked through Epcot just to get to the monorail. I still get counted as a guest, but never came close to riding an attraction.

Not every guest entering the parks is headed for an "E" Ticket....far from it!



Today, there are people who refuse to simply slide their ticket through a machine in order to save 45 minutes of wait time. What makes you think these people are going to pre-plan their movements weeks in advance via a web browser or smartphone?!?

With all due respect, I think you're missing the forest for the trees when it comes to how this is going to play out. The current Fastpass system couldn't be simpler. And it's a very big time saver for everyone who chooses to participate. Yet THOUSANDS of guests each day are CHOOSING not to participate.

Today, on a typical day in any of the four parks, I can get FastPasses for each of the 4-5 headliners within a 7-8 hour visit.

Now suddenly Disney plans to limit my daily access to those headliners AND double or triple the number of offerings at each park.

Disney may be "highly motivated" to get people to use the system, but guests still have to cooperate. Again we're talking about sliding a ticket vs. wristbands/webpages/advance planning. Common sense tells me that FP utilization will not immediately rise as a result.

You could argue that guests will be "forced" to participate if they want to ride the headliners. But people have a way of not liking to be "forced" to do anything. If Disney sets up too many barriers, the most obvious response will be for people to spend their money elsewhere.

I don't blame Disney for being conservative in their FP+ testing and initial implementation. The last thing they want to do is go public with a limit of 4 or 5 FP+ for everyone, and then have to scale it back to 3.

Nevertheless, I think the system has a lot more capacity than your numbers suggest. The FP ratios are unknown. Volume of unredeemed FPs are unknown. And number of admissions who pull limited or zero FPs in a visit are unknown.
For FP+ to used as an incentive to get more people to fork over more money and stay in deluxe, there has to be an advantage. There needs to be demand. If most people are too uninformed to use it, don't want to use, just want to eat in the park, then the perk is not very effective for most people. At Epcot and DAK there isn't any reason to have 5 FP+.

During the non peak times I don't even use FP.

But, if the line dynamics change the way I think they will, the additional FP+ will be a great perk:

You mention that running all over the park to collect fastpasses is a waste of time, and with FP+ people will be able to do more in less time.

Two things there.

1. Running all over the park and killing time for my next FP is what keeps me in the parks. If I burned my three FP+ early, I am not staying to fight crowds in Standby. I think this turns all parks into a half day park. A relaxing half day, but what do I do now? Go to SeaWorld?

2. What is the greatest barrier for people to get a TSMM fast pass? Getting up early and doing the the running with bulls. But, 10,000 people a day do it, because all those FP are gone before noon. Most of those are different people each day, I don't think there is a lot of multiple visits to this park on 5 day stays.

It doesn't take 100% of the people to want headliners, it only takes about 40% at DHS, and think of all the people who know about FP, but don't want to go to the park at 9:00 am.

If the barrier is removed, a lot more people will book TSMM in advance. But you don't need all, just 9000-10000. The same thing is true for Peter Pan. Approximately 7000-8000 FP slots a day available, 70,000 in the park during peak time. It only takes 10% of the patrons to book that ride up in advance.

If Disney holds back a percentage for same day use, then that creates a WDW wide rush to get to the parks early to grab the same day FP, and that puts everything back to the beginning negating the benefit of booking from the room.

I don't see how FP distribution can exceed 80%. The closer to 100% makes the FP line simply a standby line. There would be no benefit for having a FP.

I also see standby for the big rides going down slightly, if Disney is successful in getting them out of Splash and riding Its A Small World and Pirates of the Caribbean. But the drawback is that those short lines become longer. For example, last June maelstrom didn't the FP line open, the standby line moved quickly. No need for FP. But other times I have been there and a steady stream of FP slowed the standby down to a crawl. So now, I won't ride it without a FP if it is in service. Pirates could end up that way. Living with Land could be that way.

If that is the case, then more FP+ are needed. And I will pay deluxe to get them. I hope my DVC gets me additional passes, because I can see a scenario, where we wouldn't - same argument as free dining.
__________________
-Barry
  • FP+ original discussions "What we know, what we want to know" can be found at this site.
  • Best WDW insider fact or story thread.
  • WDW Estimated Ride Capacities
bcrook is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-2013, 04:27 PM   #19
WisconsinDad
Mouseketeer
 
WisconsinDad's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Wisconsin
Posts: 121

Quote:
Originally Posted by tjkraz View Post
With all due respect, I think you're missing the forest for the trees when it comes to how this is going to play out. The current Fastpass system couldn't be simpler. And it's a very big time saver for everyone who chooses to participate. Yet THOUSANDS of guests each day are CHOOSING not to participate.
I'm sure there are many guests that choose not to participate in the existing FP but I know from experience that there are also many guests that don't participate because they don't know how it works or don't know that there isn't an additional cost to use it.

There were more than one occasions on our last trip where we zipped through the FP line and overheard kids in the standby line ask their parents why we were able to move through so much faster and their parents said it was because they didn't purchase those types of tickets.

Because FP+ is being communicated out to guests prior to their stays (I'm assuming they'll continue to do this after testing is complete) we may see more guesting using FP+ than traditional FP. It's hard to say though. I think it's kind of like ADR's. I think many folks that don't book their ADR's ahead of time don't do it because they don't want to; I think they just don't know they need to. FP+ may end up being the same way depending on how well Disney communicates the process to them.
WisconsinDad is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-22-2013, 05:13 PM   #20
tjkraz

DVC Owner SSR
 
tjkraz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2002
Location: Ohio
Posts: 13,265

Quote:
Originally Posted by WisconsinDad View Post
I'm sure there are many guests that choose not to participate in the existing FP but I know from experience that there are also many guests that don't participate because they don't know how it works or don't know that there isn't an additional cost to use it.

There were more than one occasions on our last trip where we zipped through the FP line and overheard kids in the standby line ask their parents why we were able to move through so much faster and their parents said it was because they didn't purchase those types of tickets.
We are in complete agreement here. With that said, my main points are:

1) Do we really believe that FP+ usage is going to be dramatically higher? Again, you've got the current simple-as-can-be swipe card system vs bracelets/smartphones/MDE.com/advance registrations (which I agree optional.)

Most of us here are viewing FastPass as veterans of the parks. Many plan meals 6 months in advance and have detailed spreadsheets of their day attraction-by-attraction.

Meanwhile there are thousands of guests who arrive for the day with no advance planning, no knowledge of FastPass, no gameplan for riding attractions. While advance planning is not necessary with FP+ the entire system is far more complicated than legacy FP for the uneducated guest.

Personally I will have no problem with FP or FP+. But when I consider people like my parents, father-in-law, neighbors or coworkers being dropped in the middle of WDW for a day trip, they will have no understanding of the system and no patience for rubber bracelets and touch screens.

2) And with that said, the main point I'm trying to drive home is that any projections of FP+ capacity are fundamentally flawed with no access to hard data on guest usage.

The third sentence of bcrook's post reads: "Total FP+ needed per park per day based on the idea of 1 e-ticket FP+ and 2 other rides."

Then it uses annual attendance figures to project average daily usage, assuming that every guest gets those three FPs each day.

What it fails to take into account are:

1) Guests who will ride zero or very few attractions.
2) Guests who will take (reserve) a FastPass and then not use it. That number gives Disney the ability to inflate FP issuance since some will always go unredeemed.
3) Guests who simply will not use FP or FP+ no matter what.
4) In the case of FP+, guests who are hopping from another park and thus do not get any ride reservations in the second park.

Every one of those factors chips away at the number of reservations required to satisfy the actual group of FP+ users...which will be far smaller than the daily admission average.

Meanwhile the grouping of attractions further limits which attractions I can experience in a given day. And the addition of new FP experiences to each park adds more capacity to the whole system.

I really don't see how FP is going from a system where I can reasonably--without any abuse or subterfuge--get 4-6 tickets per day for "E" and "D" ticket attractions, to one where its maxed out with me only getting one "E" ticket reservation and two lesser attractions.

Quote:
Because FP+ is being communicated out to guests prior to their stays (I'm assuming they'll continue to do this after testing is complete) we may see more guesting using FP+ than traditional FP. It's hard to say though.
That's all well and good for Disney hotel guests...the most educated group. But again, thousands of guests daily who just drive up and pay their $95 for one day at the Magic Kingdom or Epcot. They won't understand FP+ and many of them won't have the tolerance to stand in more lines or even be accosted by a helpful Cast Member who they perceive is just trying to sell them something else.

Quote:
I think it's kind of like ADR's. I think many folks that don't book their ADR's ahead of time don't do it because they don't want to; I think they just don't know they need to. FP+ may end up being the same way depending on how well Disney communicates the process to them.
ADRs are a poor comparison because the capacity is so low. We're talking a few hundred parties per night dining at CRT or Le Cellier vs. attractions which can handle 10-30K per day. It doesn't take much to max-out ADRs at several locations.
__________________
-- Tim

DVC owner at SSR, BWV and VGC
tjkraz is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 07-26-2013, 11:39 AM   #21
ParrotBill
A parrot's life for me
Stalked by a little Einstein
 
ParrotBill's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Upstate NY near Rochester
Posts: 2,298

I seem to remember a few years ago when the NextGen Patent was filed, we read some details about benefits that would vary by tier of hotel guest. Even if they haven't chosen to do it yet, seems likely that hotel tier and package types could vary the benefits at some point.
__________________

___________________________________________
Questions by PM are welcome!
Recent Visits: Kidani/BCV Aug2013; POFQ Dec2013 with daughter in Candlelight Processional, Apr2014
Next: BWV Aug2014
BWV and OKW DVC since 1996, 40+ WDW, 2 DL, 1 DLP visits

ParrotBill is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

facebooktwitterpinterestgoogle plusyoutubeDIS Updates
GET OUR DIS UPDATES DELIVERED BY EMAIL



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:06 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

Copyright © 1997-2014, Werner Technologies, LLC. All Rights Reserved.