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Old 06-14-2013, 01:10 PM   #16
goneviral
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Originally Posted by dmunsil View Post
Again, you're comparing an average actual sale price, to a high listing price. They aren't comparable.
This statement is exactly why I asked right above about asking price in terms of absolutes.

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A more valid comparison would be from the high sale price recorded in May, which was $83 per point. By that comparison, it looks like the market hasn't moved much at all.
But you lose me here. Why do you believe the market hasn't moved any if the data collated indicates an average of $63.52 to $67 then you mention a sale at $83? I don't follow that line of thinking.

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In fact, I think the market has moved up somewhat in the last few months. I wouldn't be surprised if the median price recorded in June goes up another few dollars, maybe above 70. But it's not going to be 83 or anything close to it.
I believe that and yet all I can evaluate at the moment are listed prices. The only three listings at TSS quote $83, $85 and $85. All of those are larger contracts (175 points being the smallest), none of which has more than 5 points currently available. At an apparently unsponsored site, five of six contracts currently available list for 80+ PP. The only one that doesn't is $78 for a large-ish, somewhat stripped contract.

That is exactly why I have been wondering about the negotiating power a buyer has with these offers.

To wit, there is a BLT listing I like with 150 points annually. It is listed at $96 PP. I have no idea what a "fair" offer would be. Is there a link or a thread that provides guidelines for how negotiations work?


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And the short answer to your original question is that yes, the market can move around quite a bit, especially when Disney does a lot of ROFR exercises. Suddenly there are a bunch of motivated buyers chasing even fewer contracts, and the price inevitably goes up. It's a thinly traded market, so swings are not uncommon.
Great! That is very useful information as I attempt to understand the underlining economics of this market.
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Old 06-14-2013, 01:52 PM   #17
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Originally Posted by goneviral View Post
To wit, there is a BLT listing I like with 150 points annually. It is listed at $96 PP. I have no idea what a "fair" offer would be. Is there a link or a thread that provides guidelines for how negotiations work?
The "Anyone made it through (...) ROFR recently?" Thread gives you an idea of the lower price per points being accepted. I think page 162 is still the compiled data page. However, at the end of the day, it's how much you're willing to pay and what the seller's willing to accept.

I agree with you, the price has moved up. To assume that many buyers negotiate on contracts is unrealistic, unless you assume all buyers are lurking on this site. But at the same time, May closing data is not reflective of current selling prices either. Even just looking at page 162 for those that passed in April/May, it seems like the average price per point is higher in the 70s.
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Old 06-14-2013, 04:53 PM   #18
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Since I'm new to this, I am curious about one aspect that you address above. If a listing is a certain price per point, how close to that number is the ordinary compromise? I don't know if it's like houses where the wiggle room is less or cars where the "asking price" is a sucker play.
It depends, the numbers area all over the place. I've bought timeshares offering 10% of what they were asking and I've paid asking price without negotiating because it was that good of a deal. I've also lost a couple of valuable purchases just by offering 10% less than asking as a starting point. For DVC I'd say that it's closer the car example overall though.
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Old 06-14-2013, 05:58 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by goneviral View Post
Why do you believe the market hasn't moved any if the data collated indicates an average of $63.52 to $67 then you mention a sale at $83? I don't follow that line of thinking.
I don't believe the "market hasn't moved." I was pointing out that you're looking at the most expensive BWV listings available right now, and in May the highest sale price was essentially the same price as those listings. So if you think those listings represent the high side of the market (and I do), then the market hasn't moved much between May (or really, early April when they actually negotiated that price) and today. In fact, you can't draw that conclusion from just those data points. Today, all you see are $80+ contracts. Tomorrow, one might pop up listed at $72.

But again, you can't compare listed prices with sale prices. Some people pay full asking price, but lots of people negotiate something lower.

Quote:
That is exactly why I have been wondering about the negotiating power a buyer has with these offers.

To wit, there is a BLT listing I like with 150 points annually. It is listed at $96 PP. I have no idea what a "fair" offer would be. Is there a link or a thread that provides guidelines for how negotiations work?
It's exactly like negotiating anything high priced. Cars, boats, property. You can offer anything you want. If you come in too low, the worst that happens is they won't accept, and perhaps someone else gets it because they offered more. There's no other downside, really. Maybe if you really lowball the price they assume you're not serious. But I've never heard of someone not being willing to look at a higher offer because they were insulted by the first one. Maybe it happens, but most people just want to sell for a reasonable price.

As to the BLT listing at $96, that's a pretty reasonable price right now. Maybe even low, depending on how stripped or loaded it is. If it's loaded, I'd worry about it getting ROFRed at that price. There are many folks who'd offer the asking price for that contract, if it fit what they needed. But there's no reason you can't offer $90. Heck, you could offer $80. You can offer $1 if you want. But if they accepted a super-low offer, it would almost certainly get ROFRed, so unless you're playing the "keep submitting lowballs until Disney lets one through" game, you might as well offer on the high side of the market.

There are people out there (some on this board, I'm sure) who routinely and regularly offer low prices on pretty much everything, as long as they have some cash to spend. They then rent out the points, or hold the contracts for a while and then sell them for a profit (often both). Those people can afford to be really patient. They're not planning to book a trip with the contracts they're making offers on.

So ask yourself if you want a contract soon, or if you want to get the lowest price. If you want a contract soon, look for one you like and make an offer. Make it a high-ish offer, based on all the price data around here, so it's likely to make it through ROFR. If none of the contracts looks good to you, wait until one does look good and then pounce on it. TSS lists about 120-150 contracts a month between all the different resorts, so you shouldn't have to wait forever.

If you want to get the lowest price, start making offers. Pitch low. Prepare for stuff to get ROFRed. Be patient. Don't get hung up on a specific contract.

It's just business.
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Old 06-14-2013, 06:03 PM   #20
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And one other thing: for your mental health, if you just want to own some DVC and aren't looking to be a part-time timeshare broker, focus your attention on how much you're saving relative to Disney rather than how much more you paid than some other guy.

Right now, you can easily get BLT for $110. That's the high range; it's not likely to get ROFRed. That's about 35% off what Disney is charging ($165). That's a good deal! If you decided to just pay that, you still got a deal! Don't spend all your time worrying about whether someone else got something roughly similar for $82. They probably had seven contracts ROFRed to get that one screaming deal.

That said, first see if they'll take $100.
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