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Old 04-16-2013, 06:52 AM   #31
theguda
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Originally Posted by ELMC
OP, get a better deal on your buy in and the numbers will make more sense.
$59 per point at SSR with 160 banked points isn't a very good deal already? From my research I'll be lucky to pass ROFR at that price. Any lower and my chances get worse. Would you not agree?
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Old 04-16-2013, 06:57 AM   #32
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OP, you have great arguments in this thread for both owning and renting, and you need to decide which ones resonate with you. To sum up, if you are going to make this strictly about the dollars and cents, it might be hard for you to justify ownership. However, your financial analysis is incomplete unless you find some way to quantify the benefits and satisfaction of ownership and factor that into the equation.
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Old 04-16-2013, 07:04 AM   #33
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theguda

$59 per point at SSR with 160 banked points isn't a very good deal already? From my research I'll be lucky to pass ROFR at that price. Any lower and my chances get worse. Would you not agree?
Actually, I would not agree. It's a good deal in this market. But it's clearly not good enough to make your numbers work and it pales in comparison to the best deals that can be found with a little bit (a lot) of work. As far as passing ROFR or not, I don't make deals based on the speculation of passing. Others do and that's their prerogative, but it usually ends up costing more. Given that cost is your number one motivator, that doesn't seem prudent.
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Old 04-16-2013, 07:36 AM   #34
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I think a little bit of the problem is you are approachnig this as you would the purchase of say a dishwasher (can't think of a more expensive example). a dishwasher is a necessity, not a fun purchase so you shop around find a deal, look for a better deal and buy what is most cost effective.

DVC is essentially an investment in a holiday, it is not an essential item. While it has to be affordable that is not the same as buying the cheapest contract available. As long as you pay a good price per point for your purchase and have the disposable cash ready to pay for it so you are not borrowing or taking from rainy day money then you need to take cost effectiveness off the table. You need to decide what you want to buy, once you know that go after it looking for the best price possible for that which you have chosen. Do not chose what to buy based on the price or you risk spending a lot of money and regretting it.
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Old 04-16-2013, 10:17 AM   #35
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a dishwasher is a necessity
Not if you have teenagers.

OP: I think the basic bones of your analysis is just about right. You can quibble with the assumptions, but the method is IMO sound. The correct comparison really is "rent from an owner or buy resale", and every time I look at it, the two are closer to one another than most people assume. You can fudge the assumptions either way to make one or the other "the winner", but ultimately the question is: Do I want to come to WDW indefinitely, or don't I? If you do, then owning is a fine way to manage the lodging costs for doing so. If you don't, or you are not sure, it is wise to rent.

True, the balance could tip down the road in favor of one or the other. If it tips in favor of owning, you can buy then.
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Old 04-16-2013, 10:48 AM   #36
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So I want to add .2 cents in here:

I agree with most of this. ***and have a mix opinion.

Due to the risk of renting points, and cancellations/ect a # of other things.

I think the better option is transferring points, not renting. meaning you must be an owner ( of a small contract)

Same price/cheaper then renting.. but you control the ressie, and if say 1 in 10 vacations has to move a day cause of flight prices, or a sick kid, or relative passes, or you now have a wedding you didn't have to go to 6 months ago.. change in plans happen. Renting you are pretty much stuck with what you have without an individual ( which poses own risks there.)

I think a GREAT alternative is purchasing a small contract, 25/50 75 points, and transferring in points every yr ( or when you want).

It gives you all of benefits of renting as listed, and MUCH less to nearly no risk. Once the points are transferred in .. they are yours.. to cancel/change/ect. (even better you can change resort and points to yrly plans, and bank if need be... no borrowing..)

I bought a contract thinking it was all I would need 160 ssr points.. and (* so far) will not be buying more, due to doing this.. AND LOOOOOOOOOOOVE transferring them in. at 10$ ish a point, and sometimes cheaper by buying more/next yrs points.. it is perfect!
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Old 04-16-2013, 11:46 AM   #37
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Originally Posted by sweetdana View Post
So I want to add .2 cents in here:

I agree with most of this. ***and have a mix opinion.

Due to the risk of renting points, and cancellations/ect a # of other things.

I think the better option is transferring points, not renting. meaning you must be an owner ( of a small contract)

Same price/cheaper then renting.. but you control the ressie, and if say 1 in 10 vacations has to move a day cause of flight prices, or a sick kid, or relative passes, or you now have a wedding you didn't have to go to 6 months ago.. change in plans happen. Renting you are pretty much stuck with what you have without an individual ( which poses own risks there.)

I think a GREAT alternative is purchasing a small contract, 25/50 75 points, and transferring in points every yr ( or when you want).

It gives you all of benefits of renting as listed, and MUCH less to nearly no risk. Once the points are transferred in .. they are yours.. to cancel/change/ect. (even better you can change resort and points to yrly plans, and bank if need be... no borrowing..)

I bought a contract thinking it was all I would need 160 ssr points.. and (* so far) will not be buying more, due to doing this.. AND LOOOOOOOOOOOVE transferring them in. at 10$ ish a point, and sometimes cheaper by buying more/next yrs points.. it is perfect!
Finding someone to transfer the points to you can be difficult especially if you want to do it every year!!
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Old 04-16-2013, 12:01 PM   #38
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sweetdana
So I want to add .2 cents in here:

I agree with most of this. ***and have a mix opinion.

Due to the risk of renting points, and cancellations/ect a # of other things.

I think the better option is transferring points, not renting. meaning you must be an owner ( of a small contract)

Same price/cheaper then renting.. but you control the ressie, and if say 1 in 10 vacations has to move a day cause of flight prices, or a sick kid, or relative passes, or you now have a wedding you didn't have to go to 6 months ago.. change in plans happen. Renting you are pretty much stuck with what you have without an individual ( which poses own risks there.)

I think a GREAT alternative is purchasing a small contract, 25/50 75 points, and transferring in points every yr ( or when you want).

It gives you all of benefits of renting as listed, and MUCH less to nearly no risk. Once the points are transferred in .. they are yours.. to cancel/change/ect. (even better you can change resort and points to yrly plans, and bank if need be... no borrowing..)

I bought a contract thinking it was all I would need 160 ssr points.. and (* so far) will not be buying more, due to doing this.. AND LOOOOOOOOOOOVE transferring them in. at 10$ ish a point, and sometimes cheaper by buying more/next yrs points.. it is perfect!
If you rent points from other than your home resort, do you get 11 month booking at the other resort. For example if you own at ssr then rent at blt do you get 11 month booking at blt with those points?
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Old 04-16-2013, 12:04 PM   #39
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However, your financial analysis is incomplete unless you find some way to quantify the benefits and satisfaction of ownership and factor that into the equation.
I really don't understand the "happiness/satisfaction" factor of owning DVC as some sort of benefit. What does owning DVC give you that renting doesn't? First off let me qualify that I DO feel a certain draw to owning DVC. There IS a tangible level of happiness that I get by thinking about being an owner. But when I look at the #'s it just seems like a bad financial move and I can't allow a fuzzy feeling to lead me into a bad decision.

So my question is this....why does owning DVC make you "happier" than just renting points. Here are some reasons I've been given by DVC owners:

1) Able to check room availability on your own. Yes, I do see this as a benefit but honestly, it's not a big one. I quickly found a reliable DVC owner to rent points from. I easily found her on Disboards. She checks availability for me and does it quickly. I've read countless other examples on disboards like this as well. So really...is being able to check rooms yourself THAT big of a deal when someone else can easily check for you?

2) Able to book 11 months at home resort. Yes, that's a big benefit but you can do the same thing by renting points from a person who has a home resort you're interested in visiting. I've already spoken to a confimed legitimate private seller whos home resort is BWV. I'm going to rent points from him this fall for my vacation next October. I didn't need to be a DVC member to book 11 months out.

3) Guaranteed to vacation at Disney. I've never owned DVC and I've been able to book every WDW vacation I've ever wanted...exactly how I wanted it. This year I'm renting points for the first time and got what I wanted. Being a DVC member won't give me the hotel or setup I want. I can get it by renting

4) Annual Pass. I've often heard people say if you go to WDW at least once a year then buying DVC is worth it. I assume part of the reason for this argument is having the ability to save on park passes by utilizing the AP, which costs a family of 4 about $1600. But let's say you only go to WDW one time per year. You can get 5 day hoppers for less than $1600. So the AP isn't a discount unless you go more than once.

5) Long term savings. Now this is the ONE benefit I can get behind, but I suspect a lot of people have themselves talked into savings that they really aren't going to see. I absolutely know if I go to WDW twice a year for the next 30 years...owning will save me $. But for me, and probably a lot of others even if they don't want to admit it...I won't go to WDW enough over the next 30 years to realize that savings. My vaction this year is gonna cost me about $3000. If I owned DVC and went twice it would cost me about $4800. So yes I'd "save" $1200 but I'm also spending $1800 more than I normally do because I'm taking 2 vacations instead of 1. If a person would take 2 trips a year regarless of owning or not...and they go twice a year for decades...yes, it will save them. That's not me though...and I bet it's not a lot of people who own DVC. $

Is there something I'm missing? Another benefit you get by owning DVC vs renting? If these are the majority of the benefits...they're not really benefits because you can get them without owning. After looking at the #'s for the past week I don't see any major benefit that I can get by owning...but I do see the large up front cost of owning as a major negative. It will take me 14 years to essentially "get my money back" by owning DVC. Given the fact that renting will give me almost everything an owner can get....I see renting periodically at a higher point cost as a much better financial decision than paying the large up front cost to own. If I were 25 years old and planned to go twice a year forever...then I'd own. But I'm 40 and go once a year and occasionaly twice. For someone like me it's a bad financial move and one I can avoid by renting and still enjoying almost all the benefits of owning.
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Old 04-16-2013, 12:10 PM   #40
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Quote:
Originally Posted by sweetdana View Post
So I want to add .2 cents in here:

I agree with most of this. ***and have a mix opinion.

Due to the risk of renting points, and cancellations/ect a # of other things.

I think the better option is transferring points, not renting. meaning you must be an owner ( of a small contract)

Same price/cheaper then renting.. but you control the ressie, and if say 1 in 10 vacations has to move a day cause of flight prices, or a sick kid, or relative passes, or you now have a wedding you didn't have to go to 6 months ago.. change in plans happen. Renting you are pretty much stuck with what you have without an individual ( which poses own risks there.)

I think a GREAT alternative is purchasing a small contract, 25/50 75 points, and transferring in points every yr ( or when you want).

It gives you all of benefits of renting as listed, and MUCH less to nearly no risk. Once the points are transferred in .. they are yours.. to cancel/change/ect. (even better you can change resort and points to yrly plans, and bank if need be... no borrowing..)

I bought a contract thinking it was all I would need 160 ssr points.. and (* so far) will not be buying more, due to doing this.. AND LOOOOOOOOOOOVE transferring them in. at 10$ ish a point, and sometimes cheaper by buying more/next yrs points.. it is perfect!
At first glance this does seem very interesting. If you transfer points from another resort like BC....can you book BC at the 11 months window with those transferred points?
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Old 04-16-2013, 12:14 PM   #41
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5) Long term savings. Now this is the ONE benefit I can get behind, but I suspect a lot of people have themselves talked into savings that they really aren't going to see. I absolutely know if I go to WDW twice a year for the next 30 years...owning will save me $. But for me, and probably a lot of others even if they don't want to admit it...I won't go to WDW enough over the next 30 years to realize that savings. My vaction this year is gonna cost me about $3000. If I owned DVC and went twice it would cost me about $4800. So yes I'd "save" $1200 but I'm also spending $1800 more than I normally do because I'm taking 2 vacations instead of 1. If a person would take 2 trips a year regarless of owning or not...and they go twice a year for decades...yes, it will save them. That's not me though...and I bet it's not a lot of people who own DVC. $
You also would be going twice and presumably getting more enjoyment out of it. No one is forcing you to go once or twice.

Quote:
Originally Posted by theguda View Post
Is there something I'm missing? Another benefit you get by owning DVC vs renting? If these are the majority of the benefits...they're not really benefits because you can get them without owning. After looking at the #'s for the past week I don't see any major benefit that I can get by owning...but I do see the large up front cost of owning as a major negative. It will take me 14 years to essentially "get my money back" by owning DVC. Given the fact that renting will give me almost everything an owner can get....I see renting periodically at a higher point cost as a much better financial decision than paying the large up front cost to own. If I were 25 years old and planned to go twice a year forever...then I'd own. But I'm 40 and go once a year and occasionaly twice. For someone like me it's a bad financial move and one I can avoid by renting and still enjoying almost all the benefits of owning.
You keep saying "14 years". So when you are 54 will you want to vacation at WDW? If yes, then buying may be a good idea. If not, then no. Move on and book cash or rent points. I feel like you want us all to convince you, but you seem really stuck on the 14 year figure. Why not consider a smaller contract? If you really don't want to go that often, a smaller contract makes more sense, or as you say, renting may be better for you as well as an infrequent visitor.
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Old 04-16-2013, 12:26 PM   #42
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[/QUOTE]You keep saying "14 years". So when you are 54 will you want to vacation at WDW? If yes, then buying may be a good idea. If not, then no. Move on and book cash or rent points. I feel like you want us all to convince you, but you seem really stuck on the 14 year figure. Why not consider a smaller contract? If you really don't want to go that often, a smaller contract makes more sense, or as you say, renting may be better for you as well as an infrequent visitor.[/QUOTE]

A smaller contract is going to have to same payback time of 14 years +/-...depending on the final price of the contract. My issue is that a lot of DVC owners say "if you go every year...even every other year...then owning is the way to go"...and that simply is not true unless you buy in young and go to WDW multiple times per year. If you go to WDW once a year then you're wasting money being a DVC owner...OR...you have been pursuaded to spend more money than you normally would by taking more vacations. Yes, you get to enjoy the extra vacation...but you have changed your normal behavior to "save" money even though you're actually spending more.
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Old 04-16-2013, 12:28 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by montrealdisneylovers View Post
Finding someone to transfer the points to you can be difficult especially if you want to do it every year!!
it is not really hard at all.. at least I have found a willing/able/ party within 1-3 days so far every time I have been ready to buy since 2009. every yr.

the exact resort I wanted every time. 1 yr I bought the 2nd yr, for 2$ less by taking the yr I wanted and there next yrs were only 8$ or so..
I do not agree with this statement at all.

I have used dis for all buy 1 yr and tug for 1 yr.. if I buy points in 2013.. I intend to do the same.. so far I don't need them.. but will use this if I do.
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Old 04-16-2013, 12:28 PM   #44
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If you transfer points from another resort like BC....can you book BC at the 11 months window with those transferred points?
Yes. Transferred points retain their home resort and Use Year. If you transfer BCV points into your account you can use them to book BCV (and only BCV) 11 months out. You can use them to book any resort 7 months out.
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Old 04-16-2013, 12:29 PM   #45
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At first glance this does seem very interesting. If you transfer points from another resort like BC....can you book BC at the 11 months window with those transferred points?

Yes. Transferred points retain their original use year and home resort priority. They can be banked, but not borrowed (I believe).

For the record, this is what we did. We needed about 275-300, but I only bought 200. I've done a transfer each of the last 2 years. You can only do one transfer a use year. Takes some work.
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