DVC RESALES
DVC RESALES

Go Back   The DIS Discussion Forums - DISboards.com > Disney Vacation Club > Purchasing DVC
facebooktwitterpinterestgoogle plusyoutubeDIS UpdatesDIS email updates
Register Chat FAQ Tickers Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read





Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread Display Modes
Old 04-10-2013, 08:24 PM   #91
sdolphin2284
Earning My Ears
 
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 7

Quote:
Originally Posted by JimMIA View Post
I've never had much use for "break even" analysis where DVC is concerned (or any other timeshare purchase). To me DVC is a way of pre-paying some vacation costs for those people who will only be happy staying in moderate or better accommodations onsite at WDW.

Whenever I see one of these threads, I always find a bunch of comments from people who bent assumptions and monkeyed with the costs/benefits to come up with a financial rationalization for what they wanted to do in the first place.

To me, a much more important analysis would be the following:
[*]How much is this going to cost?[*]What are the benefits?[*]Can I afford it?[*]Do the benefits warrant the expenditure?
If the answers to those questions are positive, I'm in. If not, I'm out.

If I have to construct a financial rationalization to purchase, I'm out.
Thank god! Someone who finally makes sense! I've continued reading this thread just to see how long I can go before my head explodes....
sdolphin2284 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 08:49 PM   #92
bighoo93
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 367

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean View Post
Then you should likely put me on ignore as I will commonly generalize about such issues but attempt to do so without attacking a given person. I believe that's different than attacking an individual. You're welcome to stand opposed.
You frequently attack the poster rather than the argument. I think you can do better.
bighoo93 is offline   Reply With Quote
|
The DIS
Register to remove

Join Date: 1997
Location: Orlando, FL
Posts: 1,000,000
Old 04-10-2013, 08:52 PM   #93
JimMIA
A little Miami humor...
 
JimMIA's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: Miami, Wyndham Great Smoky Mountains, and EVER (Everglades National Park)
Posts: 11,511

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean
On a more general note, I don't think most people who post these issues really want a full picture. I think most have about made up their mind and are looking for confirmation. Generally they've ignored risk, made assumptions that may be somewhat reasonable but are the most optimistic scenario possible or close to it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bighoo93
I don't understand why you would assume such negative and condescending things about people you don't know. The OP actually asked for feedback and suggestions. I think most people who post this sort of thing would like to know if they are on the right track or not. Whether they get good advice or not is an entirely different matter.
I did not interpret Dean's comment as being "...negative and condescending." I thought it was a simple statement of his opinion of a certain type of post/thread that we see often here.

Here's what I consider to be "...negative and condescending:"
Quote:
Originally Posted by bighoo93 View Post
Actually, none of what you said is true. Go back to the original post and read it again.
With all due respect, I think you're a little overly-sensitive to people who happen to have a different point of view from yours.

Discussion boards are about opinions, and especially about differences of opinion. Disagreement is a good thing -- a healthy thing. Relax...and enjoy!
JimMIA is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 08:52 PM   #94
bighoo93
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 367

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean View Post
Nothing's guaranteed including the bank, mattress or anything else. However, there is a significant difference in risk between a good mutual fund and the situation being discussed. A dramatic enough difference to put DVC close to the day trading category comparatively.
The situation being discussed is the amount of time to recoup the cost of the initial purchase by renting out the points. That's even in the title of the thread. If you think that is even remotely anything like the risk of day trading stocks, you could hardly be more wrong.
bighoo93 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 08:57 PM   #95
Dean
DIS Veteran
 
Dean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 31,912

Quote:
Originally Posted by bighoo93 View Post
You frequently attack the poster rather than the argument. I think you can do better.
I don't agree but you're welcome to that opinion. My guess is you're confusing being willing to label a particular activity honestly with attacking an individual. For example, if I say that secretly putting more than occupancy is dishonest, you'd likely call that an attack, if so, you'll simply need to stand opposed. Personally I think far too many people are worried about what others think rather than being honest. There are some right and wrong issues and principles that stand on their own.
__________________
Dean
Dean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 09:02 PM   #96
Dean
DIS Veteran
 
Dean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 31,912

Quote:
Originally Posted by bighoo93 View Post
The situation being discussed is the amount of time to recoup the cost of the initial purchase by renting out the points. That's even in the title of the thread. If you think that is even remotely anything like the risk of day trading stocks, you could hardly be more wrong.
I was merely responding to your smart alec comment to Caren90 about risk and pointing out that there is a GREAT deal of difference in the risk between traditional investments and DVC.
__________________
Dean
Dean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 09:02 PM   #97
bighoo93
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 367

Quote:
Originally Posted by JimMIA View Post
Here's what I consider to be "...negative and condescending:"With all due respect, I think you're a little overly-sensitive to people who happen to have a different point of view from yours.

Discussion boards are about opinions, and especially about differences of opinion. Disagreement is a good thing -- a healthy thing. Relax...and enjoy!
I don't start attacking people or their motives when they disagree with me, I counter their arguments. I said nothing about a person, only that his arguments were wrong. If you don't like criticism of an argument, that is pretty much the definition of overly-sensitive. I think your advice on handling over-sensitivity is very sound though. Give it a try!

I don't really care about whether someone has a different opinion, everyone has a right to his own opinion. But they don't have a right to make up their own facts. Sometimes that does seem to get confused. Someone says something that is factually incorrect, but then it is defended as "opinion". Often I just roll my eyes and ignore it, but sometimes I do feel that people might be misled by the bad information and make poor decisions based on that, and it seems worthwhile to correct some inaccuracies.
bighoo93 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 09:11 PM   #98
bighoo93
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 367

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean View Post
I was merely responding to your smart alec comment to Caren90 about risk and pointing out that there is a GREAT deal of difference in the risk between traditional investments and DVC.
I was making the point that all investments have risk. You agree. But also I would like to know what the 10% return investment is, so it can be properly compared to the risk of renting DVC points over a 7-8 year period. A 10% annualized investment doubles over that time period. You don't get that without significant risk.
bighoo93 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 09:30 PM   #99
Dean
DIS Veteran
 
Dean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 31,912

Quote:
Originally Posted by bighoo93 View Post
I was making the point that all investments have risk. You agree. But also I would like to know what the 10% return investment is, so it can be properly compared to the risk of renting DVC points over a 7-8 year period. A 10% annualized investment doubles over that time period. You don't get that without significant risk.
Actually one can get a 10% return over a long term with low to moderate risk compared to DVC as ultra high risk from an investment standpoint. A quick look on Schwab gives me 4 funds in a single core area that have a 5 & 10 year average 10% or greater, are morning star 5 rated and no load, no fee. Of course there's no way to truly predict future results but comparatively speaking the difference in risk between buying DVC from an investment standpoint vs these type of options is daylight and dark AND the return potential for DVC is lower, really much lower. But you can prove me wrong, buy a bunch of points and rent them out.
__________________
Dean
Dean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 10:02 PM   #100
bighoo93
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 367

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean View Post
Actually one can get a 10% return over a long term with low to moderate risk compared to DVC as ultra high risk from an investment standpoint. A quick look on Schwab gives me 4 funds in a single core area that have a 5 & 10 year average 10% or greater, are morning star 5 rated and no load, no fee. Of course there's no way to truly predict future results but comparatively speaking the difference in risk between buying DVC from an investment standpoint vs these type of options is daylight and dark AND the return potential for DVC is lower, really much lower. But you can prove me wrong, buy a bunch of points and rent them out.
I already have been renting my points. I will use my points when I can, and rent them when I can't use them. Do you consider yourself proven wrong?

Your assertion that renting DVC points is an "ultra high risk" proposition, akin to day trading, has not been supported with any facts, and I don't think it is true. It appears to me that you are overstating the risk of renting DVC points and/or understating the risk of investing in a mutual fund. But it also seems like we may have different understandings of risk. So be it. I don't see much hope of bridging this gap.
bighoo93 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 10:09 PM   #101
DougEMG
DIS Veteran
 
DougEMG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
Posts: 1,768

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean View Post
I presume you're talking renting out the first 3 years of points at the prices quoted with little or no closing costs or maint fees. One of my issues is that I'm not willing to assume the spread between maint fees and rentals will remain constant on a % basis, actually I'm quite willing to bet it won't over the life of the contract and negative to the member. The question is going to be how late does it catch up with you. We'd have to look at specifics to have a good discussion on this exact issue but I personally would not value banked or current UY points a full rentals share even if all maint fees were covered by the seller which is rarely the case since most overpay on the maint fees on current and the next years points based on the calendar year model the maint fees follow. I realize there are many variables both financially and personally.

As for truly commercial renters, I only remember one maybe 2 that I think we could all agree that's what they were and I thought they were not very bright to take the risk, still do. See how it worked out for them.
The numbers I quoted included all costs including any closing or MF and had all banked and current points rented out. Those are real numbers as I did rent them out.

Current rental rates are about twice what MF are, and I agree with you that over time I do not think that rental rates will maintain that 2 for 1 rate and will shrink.

We're actually only a little apart here. I think you don't think that DVC ever makes a good investment, while I think there a few extremely rare cases when it can make a good investment. In 99% of the time I think we'd be agreeing that DVC is a bad investment.

Didn't those commercial guys get out because Disney scared them out, not because they weren't making money.
__________________

Last edited by DougEMG; 04-10-2013 at 10:21 PM.
DougEMG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 10:18 PM   #102
DougEMG
DIS Veteran
 
DougEMG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2008
Location: Victoria, BC, Canada
Posts: 1,768

Quote:
Originally Posted by a742246 View Post
Doug, you can make a nice profit if you sell now. Then wait until the next downturn and rebuy everything that you sold. Then you can look at Disney as an successful investment.
I was actually running some numbers today to see if selling my BWV points made since. If I got very lucky and got a high price ($80-85) then after commission, withholding tax and capital gains taxes I think I could get close to double what I paid. I'm not sure though that I want to do that as I like owning and staying at BWV. So technically I don't view my DVC as an investment cause if this was a stock that doubled on me in one year I'd be selling and taking my profits.

What to do
__________________

Last edited by DougEMG; 04-10-2013 at 10:23 PM.
DougEMG is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 10:26 PM   #103
Dean
DIS Veteran
 
Dean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 31,912

Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
Current rental rates are about twice what MF are, and I agree with you that over time I do not think that rental rates will maintain that 2 for 1 rate and will shrink.

We're actually only a little apart here. I think you don't think that DVC ever makes a good investment, while I think there a few extremely rare cases when it can make a good investment. In 99% of the time I think we'd be agreeing.

Didn't those commercial guys get out because Disney scared them out, not because they weren't making money.
We're likely even closer than that but here's the issue, most people will not put the effort or planning into getting the most out of DVC as a rental option. I can't speak to the money those few were making but getting put out of business (so to speak) is one of the risks of the option.

Quote:
Originally Posted by bighoo93 View Post
I already have been renting my points. I will use my points when I can, and rent them when I can't use them. Do you consider yourself proven wrong?

Your assertion that renting DVC points is an "ultra high risk" proposition, akin to day trading, has not been supported with any facts, and I don't think it is true. It appears to me that you are overstating the risk of renting DVC points and/or understating the risk of investing in a mutual fund. But it also seems like we may have different understandings of risk. So be it. I don't see much hope of bridging this gap.
I've rented points over a 17-18 year period averaging maybe 1.5 to 2 every year so I've seen a fair amount over time. You've owned what, less than a year? As Doug noted some were driven out that had taken this very approach, it'd be interesting to hear what they might say now. The best measure of risk is long term return, as such DVC doesn't measure up. Over the past 18 years rental rates have gone up and down but I rented at $10.50 the first few years and we're up to what $13 a point before you pay taxes and other costs. Many were routinely renting around $8 a point at times IIRC though I never lowered my rates when I did rent.
__________________
Dean
Dean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 10:29 PM   #104
Dean
DIS Veteran
 
Dean's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 1999
Posts: 31,912

Quote:
Originally Posted by DougEMG View Post
I was actually running some numbers today to see if selling my BWV points made since. If I got very lucky and got a high price ($80-85) then after commission, withholding tax and capital gains taxes I think I could get close to double what I paid. I'm not sure though that I want to do that as I like owning and staying at BWV. So technically I don't view my DVC as an investment cause if this was a stock that doubled on me in one year I'd be selling and taking my profits.

What to do
This is likely the reason I haven't downsized, it's certainly not because I want to be in the rental business. My plan, and likely my best choice, was to buy AKV 4*25 and then resell the smaller contracts plus BWV and keep just the 25 for perk access. But I just never got around to it and in spite of the objective situation, I enjoy owning DVC.
__________________
Dean
Dean is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-10-2013, 10:36 PM   #105
bighoo93
Mouseketeer
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 367

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dean View Post
I've rented points over a 17-18 year period averaging maybe 1.5 to 2 every year so I've seen a fair amount over time. You've owned what, less than a year? As Doug noted some were driven out that had taken this very approach, it'd be interesting to hear what they might say now. The best measure of risk is long term return, as such DVC doesn't measure up. Over the past 18 years rental rates have gone up and down but I rented at $10.50 the first few years and we're up to what $13 a point before you pay taxes and other costs. Many were routinely renting around $8 a point at times IIRC though I never lowered my rates when I did rent.
Yes, I've owned less than a year. That's why I was after the comment about proving you wrong. Saying that seriously would be almost as silly as suggesting someone prove your position wrong by buying a bunch of points and renting them out long term. Yeah, that's a reasonable way to settle an internet board discussion!

Anyway, I don't plan to rent my points out any more than necessary. But I expect I will be able to do so when I need to. I can't know for sure what the going rate will be, any more than I can predict what the S&P 500 will be each year. Might be higher, might be lower, so the best you can do is try a range of reasonable scenarios and see how it works out. Doesn't seem too smart to me to go into business buying and renting DVC points. Has the thread really gone that far off topic, or are we still discussing recouping initial DVC cost?
bighoo93 is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply



Thread Tools
Display Modes Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

DVC-Resales.com | 1-800-550-6493 (Contact The Timeshare Store) | DVC Resale Listings

facebooktwittergoogle plus youtube itunesDIS Updates
GET OUR DIS UPDATES DELIVERED BY EMAIL



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 10:31 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.4
Copyright ©2000 - 2014, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.

Copyright © 1997-2014, Werner Technologies, LLC. All Rights Reserved.