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Old 02-07-2013, 01:34 PM   #16
lockedoutlogic
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DanBoris View Post
WDW's attedance between 2008 and 2011 grew only 1%, and declined between 2008 and 2009. I don't see that as very good growth.
housing crash....that one isn't quite a mystery...vacation discretionary cash is the first thing that individuals cut out in bad times. its a luxury, not a requirement to most and that is why travel suffers first and often largest in any recession.

That was part of my point...they have basically kept the same numbers with small increase. Slow increase...but steady. And they're King of the Hill...its not like they're chasing somebody...

Maybe they are capped out?
they know from when they opened animal kingdom that the average length of stay didn't significantly increase (about a day...sometimes less). Which means the more they built, the more park cannibalization would occur.

There is this misconception that somehow if they build, they can increase the attendance of an individual park by 5 million visitors per year - or some other huge number. That has never played out.

if disney could build double the hotels and then put double the people in their parks...they'd have bulldozers all over the place right now to do so. But their analysis (and unlike recent engineering...they are good at that) tells them that it won't matter. people will stay in the new rooms and leave the old ones empty. just like a 5th gate would pull significantly from epcot, animal kingdom, and mgm...its not going to bring in 10-15 million new faces.

My point is that their construction investments in their parks are very calculating...and has little if anything to do with outside competition. It also seems to have little to do with capitalizing on their material...as they are dreadfully slow to come up with park tie-ins in recent years.

There construction schedule is very carefully laid out....they want the ability to throw their "big number" reinvestments at investors, competitors, and the press without necessarily having it to do it on more than a 5 year master arc. Measured muscle...but up to their discretion and not subject to the want or will of the fan.

The standard business acumen is "give the people what they want" and "adapt or be left behind"

WDW might be the exact counter argument to that logic...they give you what they want (two great examples: princesses and pirates...that while seems like a no-brainer, was by their design. people weren't screaming for it...but disney pushed it onto the customer and saturated it to such a point that they almost tricked them into screaming for it. reverse consumer psychology).
And far from adapting....they augment their offering while selling it on standard disney stock...animatronic ridethroughs, show dump giftshops, and character breakfasts. and the people eat it up.

So all rumors about star wars land, carsland, and "oh no, harry potter" really have to be taken with a pound of salt.

That's just my opinion...but i've been working on that one for along time and have seen an example or two to support it.
Feel free to disagree.
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Old 02-07-2013, 01:57 PM   #17
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And as far as stale, tired, and the threat of Universal...you can't really throw that out as an argument now. Universal stealing Disney's business has never been documented nor really feared. You can't have business stolen if your numbers go up and you're on top...even if your competitors go up more. That is no argument.
You most certainly can have business stolen if your numbers go up and you're still on top. WDW will always be on top in Orlando, I'm not arguing that, but to say that they arent losing customers or potential customers to Universal is turning a blind eye to actual attendance numbers at Universal.

We've seen attendance grow massively at IofA since Harry Potter was built, do you really think that those attendance numbers didn't take anything away from disney?

I don't think people are taking special trips to Orlando just go to to Universal, most people never have. But instead of spending 8 days in a Disney Park, those people are most likely spending 6 days in a Disney Park and 2 at Universal, so yes, I do believe Disney is losing some attendance figures to Universal.

Just look at the attendance numbers since 2008.

2008 Numbers
Magic Kingdom 17,063,000
Epcot 10,935,000
AK 9,540,000
DHS 9,608,000
IoA 5,297,000
Universal 6,231,000

2011 Numbers
Magic Kingdom 17,142,000
Epcot 10,825,000
AK 9,783,00
DHS 9,669,000
IoA 7,674,000
Universal 6,044,00

3 of the Disney Theme parks in FL grew, but very little. Now look at IoA, they added 2.5 million more people to that park, and if they continue to grow at the same pace, then they will catch both DHS and AK in attendance numbers.

Universal's numbers itself doesn't look good, they lost 200,000 visitors. But look what they are adding to the that park, the same formula that added 2.5 million to IofA.

The point of this, yes disney grew, but IofA is growing at much faster pace and is on track to catch 3 of the disney parks. WDW must do something to stop Universal's growth. Period.
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Old 02-07-2013, 04:19 PM   #18
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We could go around and around the block on this....

Universals attendance had lagged for several years prior to Harry potter...and they reinvented themselves a little and have some giant entertainment muscle in Comcast to maybe become a legitimate threat.

They have potential - I have and always will say that Comcast going all in on the universal parks was a great thing for Disney and its fans. They have money to be a legitimate threat.

Maybe someday..but they have some big obstacles...land being a huge one.

But Disney is still the straw that stirs the drink in Orlando...Florida, actually.

To think that Disney is actually losing money to universal in the here and now is not an accurate assessment. Don't believe me, believe the entertainment/ business analysis on it.

Second, if as a Disney fan that you are thinking that universal is gonna cause Disney to run out and build you 3 billion of new stuff in WDW...you are drunk on wishful thinking.

Maybe as time goes on they will make more decisions that way...but it's still a margin thread right now.

Maybe they hurried forward the fantasyland because of new investment...perhaps. But the threat didnt cause the project to go forward.

Animal kingdom was hurried forward to beat the opening of IOA...and partially to cut costs...but that didnt change that it was going to be built at that time regardless.

Again, you don't have to believe me. Just show me one desperation move Disney has ever made to counter competitors...one.
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Old 02-07-2013, 04:33 PM   #19
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Originally Posted by lockedoutlogic View Post
We could go around and around the block on this....

Universals attendance had lagged for several years prior to Harry potter...and they reinvented themselves a little and have some giant entertainment muscle in Comcast to maybe become a legitimate threat.

They have potential - I have and always will say that Comcast going all in on the universal parks was a great thing for Disney and its fans. They have money to be a legitimate threat.

Maybe someday..but they have some big obstacles...land being a huge one.

But Disney is still the straw that stirs the drink in Orlando...Florida, actually.

To think that Disney is actually losing money to universal in the here and now is not an accurate assessment. Don't believe me, believe the entertainment/ business analysis on it.

Second, if as a Disney fan that you are thinking that universal is gonna cause Disney to run out and build you 3 billion of new stuff in WDW...you are drunk on wishful thinking.

Maybe as time goes on they will make more decisions that way...but it's still a margin thread right now.

Maybe they hurried forward the fantasyland because of new investment...perhaps. But the threat didnt cause the project to go forward.

Animal kingdom was hurried forward to beat the opening of IOA...and partially to cut costs...but that didnt change that it was going to be built at that time regardless.

Again, you don't have to believe me. Just show me one desperation move Disney has ever made to counter competitors...one.
I didn't say Disney is losing money, what I said was that IofA has grown their attendance by about 2.5 million guests from 2008 to 2011. No other theme park in Orlando grew by more than 150,000 guests in that same time frame. Those guests came from somewhere. I believe of those 2.5 million guests, a good majority of them skipped a day at Disney to attend IofA. By skipping a day at Disney, it is less money in Disney's pocket.

Disney has taken Universal seriously in the past, and they will do so again. Regardless if they sped up construction of AK or not, something told them that they needed to. If I remember correctly, Disney did the same thing with MGM in regards to the opening of Universal.

Can Disney afford to sit idly by and let Universal dictate the future of the Theme Park industry? Sure, but I don't think they will, that's not what they've done in the past.
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Old 02-07-2013, 04:54 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ChipnDale79 View Post
I didn't say Disney is losing money, what I said was that IofA has grown their attendance by about 2.5 million guests from 2008 to 2011. No other theme park in Orlando grew by more than 150,000 guests in that same time frame. Those guests came from somewhere. I believe of those 2.5 million guests, a good majority of them skipped a day at Disney to attend IofA. By skipping a day at Disney, it is less money in Disney's pocket.

Disney has taken Universal seriously in the past, and they will do so again. Regardless if they sped up construction of AK or not, something told them that they needed to. If I remember correctly, Disney did the same thing with MGM in regards to the opening of Universal.

Can Disney afford to sit idly by and let Universal dictate the future of the Theme Park industry? Sure, but I don't think they will, that's not what they've done in the past.
Yeah, I admit that my family and I (6 of us) and two other families (that we almost always go with on wknds or over breaks) have been attending IoA much more than Disney parks for the HP theme in the recent years and before that we all use to just meet up and go to Disney parks. I know other families and friends that have cut back on their Disney time and $ to hit up IoA in either regular or semi-regular fashion. I can only guess that there are others like us out there. Don't get me wrong, we still love Disney but the HP theme and the new ride technology has us kinda hooked right now.
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Old 02-07-2013, 05:37 PM   #21
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Chip,

I'm always the minority...but my answer is "Yes" they still have enough weight/wait and market share to basically ignore universal if they choose. Not forever, perhaps...but right now yep.

There is no evidence that they've ever "responded" or built park infrastructure due to a competitor.

The best argument that it might have happened is the studios...
Disney was financially down and under new management. They had to move fast so they took and EPCOT concept and blew it up to get a new gate/ draw with universal on the drawing board.
I could see it. Of course wells and Eisner were Hollywood guys...so the park wasn't really too much of a hard sell for them.

But not the others...the expansions at WDW was a consolidated plan to build a longterm single stay/patronage location.
It is all calculated and worked. Parks, hotels, timeshares, retail and cruise lines.

Simple. The other example of "response" that I can think of? Magical express.
They pay Mears what amounts to a drop in the can and in one swoop flicked their chin at Uni and Seaworld and had a vast majority of their customers bypass them willingly for two cheap bus rides.
Flicked away like gnats.

Perhaps deep down part of the reason that universals operators have paid for lots of construction and licensing and their numbers lagged was due to that? Wouldn't be surprised at all.

We'll agree to disagree. It's ok...nothing wrong with that.

I do think the one competitor build that has always gotten under Disney's skin and still does?
Discovery Cove...something they have no answer for and yields a huge expenditure per person ratio.

Things might be changing...but you can't trust that Disney feels threatened, can you?

Are people not going to Disney in favor of universal in large numbers? The data will say no.
Are the losses of days annoying to Disney? Yes you would think - but not eroding the profits.
Are they paying attention? Absolutely.
Do they feel the need to counter? No. At least not for that reason...they feel the need to explore new revenue streams and increase profits. But they have always done that since "walts guys" lost control.

I just see Disney/universal as a developing false equivalency...
And there are many: coke/Pepsi....ups/FedEx...walmart/target.

The reality is that the latters in those couples can't touch the formers...they are 75-25% statistical comparisons...one rides the coat tails of the other with the illusion of equivalency.

And so with universal...who benefits Disney when they expand...as the statistics always show.(overall gate ticks are 47 million to 14...or 77% to 23%...see above)

They built uni studios and then stagnated....then built IOA and stagnated...now doing big expansions...will they stagnant?

It's a possibility...especially as Harry potter fades...and it is.

Just My take on it.
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Last Trip: Too Long Ago
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Old 02-08-2013, 12:13 AM   #22
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Yoda's the big rumor, since that was where Kasdan started, writing Empire, but I haven't seen any confirmation on that. I'd love an origin story about the emperor, or a standalone Ewan McGregor as Obi film about what happened to him between the time he fought Anakin and became Alec Guinness.
LOL ... and grew 8 inches ...

But seriously, as long as they avoid writing 8-year-old kids into the script and never, ever mention "midichlorians" then I'm sure they could come up with a lot of great movies.

Young Han Solo ferinstance ... I think there is a backstory about him that he was formerly a space-navy officer (hence the striped trousers) turned pirate/smuggler. It might be interesting to see how he got kicked out of the navy, got the Millenium Falcon off Lando and fell into the clutches of Jabba.

I've never read any Star Wars novels (other than Splinter of the Mind's Eye) but I'm sure there are some pretty good stories out there (at least you'd hope so considering how many have been published).
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Old 02-08-2013, 08:17 AM   #23
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Sounds like the first two will be Han Solo and Boba Fett. Both have excellent potential for back stories. We know more about Han than Boba from the books but there is still plenty of room for new movies. If they really want to jump into the deep end they could do stories on Darth Bane or the Knights of the Old Republic.

I'm just glad they are not going with Yoda. Let him stay mysterious.
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Old 02-08-2013, 08:56 AM   #24
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Having reread some of my Star Wars Lore, it would be cool to see Boba Fett AFTER Return of the Jedi, when he's rescued by Dengar and rehabbed and goes good for a bit.

I'd also love to see young Han, but not like 15, goofy kid saves galaxy with his furry friend type deal, more like a pirates of the caribbean in space, haha.

As for VII, VII, and IX, I really think they're going to ignore the extended universe (EU) completely at this point. It going to drive the folks at wookieepedia crazy updating all the pages I'm sure, but I don't see Disney wanting to get involved in stories and writing not done by their own team of guys after they made such big name hires.

I actually like the EU Jacen and Jaina stories and would be first to lineup to see a trilogy featuring Jacen and Jaina being trained by uncle Luke, followed by a depressing second film where Jacen turns in to his Darth Caedus self, and the twins facing off in an epic duel in the third film.

Sadly, I don't think 95% of the population even knows who the twins are, or cares, and Disney probably realizes that, so they'll do their own thing.
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Old 02-08-2013, 09:00 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lockedoutlogic View Post
Chip,

I'm always the minority...but my answer is "Yes" they still have enough weight/wait and market share to basically ignore universal if they choose. Not forever, perhaps...but right now yep.

There is no evidence that they've ever "responded" or built park infrastructure due to a competitor.

The best argument that it might have happened is the studios...
Disney was financially down and under new management. They had to move fast so they took and EPCOT concept and blew it up to get a new gate/ draw with universal on the drawing board.
I could see it. Of course wells and Eisner were Hollywood guys...so the park wasn't really too much of a hard sell for them.

But not the others...the expansions at WDW was a consolidated plan to build a longterm single stay/patronage location.
It is all calculated and worked. Parks, hotels, timeshares, retail and cruise lines.

Simple. The other example of "response" that I can think of? Magical express.
They pay Mears what amounts to a drop in the can and in one swoop flicked their chin at Uni and Seaworld and had a vast majority of their customers bypass them willingly for two cheap bus rides.
Flicked away like gnats.

Perhaps deep down part of the reason that universals operators have paid for lots of construction and licensing and their numbers lagged was due to that? Wouldn't be surprised at all.

We'll agree to disagree. It's ok...nothing wrong with that.

I do think the one competitor build that has always gotten under Disney's skin and still does?
Discovery Cove...something they have no answer for and yields a huge expenditure per person ratio.

Things might be changing...but you can't trust that Disney feels threatened, can you?

Are people not going to Disney in favor of universal in large numbers? The data will say no.
Are the losses of days annoying to Disney? Yes you would think - but not eroding the profits.
Are they paying attention? Absolutely.
Do they feel the need to counter? No. At least not for that reason...they feel the need to explore new revenue streams and increase profits. But they have always done that since "walts guys" lost control.

I just see Disney/universal as a developing false equivalency...
And there are many: coke/Pepsi....ups/FedEx...walmart/target.

The reality is that the latters in those couples can't touch the formers...they are 75-25% statistical comparisons...one rides the coat tails of the other with the illusion of equivalency.

And so with universal...who benefits Disney when they expand...as the statistics always show.(overall gate ticks are 47 million to 14...or 77% to 23%...see above)

They built uni studios and then stagnated....then built IOA and stagnated...now doing big expansions...will they stagnant?

It's a possibility...especially as Harry potter fades...and it is.

Just My take on it.
C'mon man, I know it's coming, you haven't brought up EE at all yet in this thread. Talk to me about how you want to see a film about the Wampa in Empire crash landing on Earth and ending up in the Expedition Everest. They fixed his arm, but now it doesn't work!
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Oh the places you'll go:
Animal Kingdom Lodge, Beach Club, Old Key West, Wilderness Lodge, Caribbean Beach, Coronado Springs, Port Orleans Resort, Saratoga Springs, All-Star Movies, Pop Century

And miles to go before I sleep:
Boardwalk Inn, Contemporary, Grand Floridian, Polynesian, Yacht Club, All-Star Music, All-Star Sports, Art of Animation

10 down, 8 to go!
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Old 02-08-2013, 09:37 AM   #26
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Pumbaa7287 View Post
Having reread some of my Star Wars Lore, it would be cool to see Boba Fett AFTER Return of the Jedi, when he's rescued by Dengar and rehabbed and goes good for a bit.

I'd also love to see young Han, but not like 15, goofy kid saves galaxy with his furry friend type deal, more like a pirates of the caribbean in space, haha.

As for VII, VII, and IX, I really think they're going to ignore the extended universe (EU) completely at this point. It going to drive the folks at wookieepedia crazy updating all the pages I'm sure, but I don't see Disney wanting to get involved in stories and writing not done by their own team of guys after they made such big name hires.

I actually like the EU Jacen and Jaina stories and would be first to lineup to see a trilogy featuring Jacen and Jaina being trained by uncle Luke, followed by a depressing second film where Jacen turns in to his Darth Caedus self, and the twins facing off in an epic duel in the third film.

Sadly, I don't think 95% of the population even knows who the twins are, or cares, and Disney probably realizes that, so they'll do their own thing.
I am also a fan of the EU. Personally I'd love to see the Heir to the Empire trilogy touched up and brought to the big screen. I also know that probably won't happen and they'll use Lucas' original outline for the third trilogy. I've enjoyed the EU up until Jacen going bad and the ending of the last series really set me off. If I remember the timeline, there is a hole between ROTJ and The Courtship of Princess Leia and another gap between HTTE and the Jedi Academy Trilogy they could use without upsetting the EU canon too bad.
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