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Old 01-31-2013, 01:39 PM   #15
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Originally Posted by Dean View Post
I absolutely agree there are an infinite number of possibilities and I appreciate the info you did provide. Still, I'd point out the obvious, that your comparing DVC to DVC, simply to renting the same points every year vs owning. While I think your assumptions were reasonable for what they were, I'd also point out they represent the best case scenario IMO. For example, the chance of maint fees averaging 3.5% are fairly good but the chance of them being less long term is essentially none and the chance that they'll increase more is fairly high, again added risk. Of course for the OP they're looking at using 100 pts a year now and for a few years.

My goal is simply to get people to think about what they're doing and try to get some reasonable and real information and step back from the emotions somewhat to make a better long term decision for their situation.
Totally agree with you. Comparing DVC to non-DVC is an apples to oranges comparison though. Staying offsite is always going to be cheaper, so if your goal is to spend as little as possible and you aren't particular where you stay, then stay offsite. If you want to stay onsite though, there are only limited options: Booking through Disney, owning DVC, renting DVC and exchanging into DVC (which I don't know much about).

Originally Posted by Dean View Post
IMO it's as much about managing risk as it is savings.
This is the part that I think is key and was always my biggest concern, "managing risk".
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