Thoughts as to how GFV sales are going to impact resale prices?

[Disneymooner07]

My thought is the start of GFV sales (whenever that may be - anyone know?) might decrease the resale prices because it will draw at least some people away from other resorts, thereby decreasing the demand somewhat. But I may be completely wrong

Curious if anyone knows what the pattern was from when BLT went on sale?

[radmcg]

The guys that have seen a few of the new resorts come online may be able to speak from experience but from the prices I have heard batted around for the points (200-300 a point) I don't think it would decrease the others value. If they split it off into DVC 2 thats a whole different issue. Would be interested to see what the guys that have been around a while think any historical perspective would be appreciated like when BLT and AK came online.

[bakenatj]

Originally Posted by Disneymooner07

My thought is the start of GFV sales (whenever that may be - anyone know?) might decrease the resale prices because it will draw at least some people away from other resorts, thereby decreasing the demand somewhat. But I may be completely wrong

Curious if anyone knows what the pattern was from when BLT went on sale?

No one knows when they will start to sell, could be as far out as spring. I doubt it will effect resale market prices. For one, the price will be higher than AKV and Aulani and it is a smaller resort. If you looked at sales data from December direct sales are slow right now.

If anything, I see it pushing more buyers to resale because of price. I was considering purchasing VGF, but decided to just go ahead and purchase BLT on resale. I will try and stay there, but for owning I think I like being able to walk to MK so I went BLT over VGF. Who knows maybe in five years I will get an itch and buy some VGF points on resale market....you know how that goes

[a742246]

I don't think GF will lower resale prices. I believe resale prices are more economy driven. That said, what I think will cause the resale prices to go down though, was the Socail Security reinstatement rate to 6.2%. I see in our family budget, that it is costing us 200 more or less in taxes each month. I was thinking of adding on this year. But now I don't think we will.

Personally, I think lowering the SS rates two years ago was nuts.

[bakenatj]

Originally Posted by a742246

I don't think GF will lower resale prices. I believe resale prices are more economy driven. That said, what I think will cause the resale prices to go down though, was the Socail Security reinstatement rate to 6.2%. I see in our family budget, that it is costing us 200 more or less in taxes each month. I was thinking of adding on this year. But now I don't think we will.

Personally, I think lowering the SS rates two years ago was nuts.

I agree, was a stupid move on the part of the government. Then again, when have they done anything smart in the last 10 years?? It will negate most people's raises this year and continue to hinder economic growth. 2% in government spending might not seem much to them, but to most Americans it is a difference. Less disposable income to spend.

[drusba]

Between Sep 14 and 21, 2008, Lehman brothers filed for bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch went through a forced sale to prevent bankruptcy, AIG declared a liquidity crisis, a global financial crisis was recognized, and the stock market dived in a monumental crash that ended up to be about a 6500 point drop in the Dow by the end of February 2009. On Sep 21, 2008, BLT went on sale at $112 a point with a $5 incentive. The price of DVC resales had started to fall before then, and thereafter they just kept falling and they may not have bottomed out yet although in the last 6 months or so they have remained kind of steady.

In other words, BLT sales were likely not the cause of any price changes in the resale market. I doubt GFV will have any effect. The resale market prices are impacted by factors like the current economy, a raise in taxes, and the fact that some resorts are now getting foreseeably closer to their end date of 2042.

[lilpooh108]

Originally Posted by drusba

Between Sep 14 and 21, 2008, Lehman brothers filed for bankruptcy, Merrill Lynch went through a forced sale to prevent bankruptcy, AIG declared a liquidity crisis, a global financial crisis was recognized, and the stock market dived in a monumental crash that ended up to be about a 6500 point drop in the Dow by the end of February 2009. On Sep 21, 2008, BLT went on sale at $112 a point with a $5 incentive. The price of DVC resales had started to fall before then, and thereafter they just kept falling and they may not have bottomed out yet although in the last 6 months or so they have remained kind of steady.

In other words, BLT sales were likely not the cause of any price changes in the resale market. I doubt GFV will have any effect. The resale market prices are impacted by factors like the current economy, a raise in taxes, and the fact that some resorts are now getting foreseeably closer to their end date of 2042.

Great analysis. Most people I knew were worried about their retirement funds dissipating before their eyes from 2008-2010. I remember my boss sighing in his office daily, staring at the market ticker.

I doubt that people with "real" disposable income were worrying about buying timeshares.

GFV prices will be interesting to watch.