|11-26-2012, 02:17 PM||#1|
Join Date: Aug 1999
Cost of Owning DVC through 2042 - Interesting Calculations
First... Let me start by saying I'm not a DVC owner, but we are looking! I’ve been to WDW quite often (and plan to continue) so it should definitely be something for us to look at very closely.
Second... There are quite a few assumptions in the information below. Lots of variables that can be played with, but I tried to get as close to an 'apples to apples' comparison as possible.
Third... I'm just sharing my calculations, so please don't flame me if you disagree! (Correction feedback would be welcome!) I'm hoping that some people out there might benefit from the info.
Assumption #1: Purchase of 160 DVC points at the WDW DVC Resorts via resale. Full purchase price paid in cash (I.E. – No financing).
Assumption #2: Current resale price average by resort. (This is certainly open to interpretation – Even if these averages are off by $5 per point, that would be a total difference of only $800 total)
AKV - $65
BLT - $85
BCV - $70
BWV - $62
OKW (2042) - $57
SSR - $55
VWL - $60
Assumption #3: An end date of 2042 is used for all resorts regardless of when the actual end date is. (30 years total cost)
Assumption #4: 2013 MF's (posted today) and a 3.6% annual increase is used for future years. The annual MF increases are definitely the wild card we cannot predict. An annual 3.6% may not be a good number, but it is what i used.
Assumption #5: Closing costs are not included. 2012 MF's are not included. (These would be a tiny fraction of the overall cost anyway...)
Assumption #6: Eight nights average stay per year. This would change significantly based on room type / view / season chosen, but eight is a good number to use for simple averages across all the resorts. The TOTAL cost should be somewhat close to actual, but the cost per night will vary widely if you average more than 20 points per night.
Assumption #7: I am not offsetting any of the purchase costs by a resale at the end of 30 years for AKV, BLT and SSR. For calculation purposes, I am assuming all value is 'used' at the end of 30 years. People will be able to sell these 30 years from now, but I chose to not include this in my particular 'apples to apples' comparison. Your 'apples to apples' might be different.
Here's what I came up with:
AKV current average resale: $65/point
AKV 2013 MF: $5.6749/point
AKV total cost for 30 years: $58052
Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: $241.88
BLT current average resale: $85/point
BLT 2013 MF: $4.4972/point
BLT total cost for 30 years: $51362
Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: $214.01
BCV current average resale: $70/point
BCV 2013 MF: $5.6458/point
BCV total cost for 30 years: $58607
Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: $244.20
BWV current average resale: $62/point
BWV 2013 MF: $5.8409/point
BWV total cost for 30 years: $58965
Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: $245.69
OKW (2042) current average resale: $57/point
OKW 2013 MF: $5.3447/point
OKW total cost for 30 years: $53999
Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: $225.00
SSR current average resale: $55/point
SSR 2013 MF: $4.8129/point
SSR total cost for 30 years: $49213
Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: $205.06
VWL current average resale: $60/point
VWL 2013 MF: $5.7931/point
VWL total cost for 30 years: $58224
Cost per night, 8 per year, for 30 years: $242.68
I found it quite interesting that AKV, BC, BWV and VWL were SO CLOSE in total anticipated cost per night over the 30 years. Of those, however… AKV will be the only one with years remaining (after 2042) where some initial purchase price might be recoverable, although that is also debatable since MF’s will be pretty high at that point. LOL
I ran the same simulations for 20 years and the numbers are still very close on a ‘cost per night’ basis: (Remember – This cost does not take into account any dollars recovered from possible resale at the end of 20 years.)
AKV - $227.14
BLT - $213.49
BCV - $231.31
BWV - $228.89
OKW (2042) - $209.71
SSR - $192.51
VWL - $225.52
I’m not sure exactly what all this tells me yet. Clearly there are some cost savings by choosing SSR over the others, but I think most of us already knew that without my crazy spreadsheet. <wink> But is that savings enough on a ‘cost per night’ basis to choose a different resort where I’d really like to have the 11 month booking window? Definitely some interesting fodder for consideration.
Non-flaming feedback is appreciated.
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